FanPost

The New Era Philosophy: Seriously Flawed

Many of us used to love the knowledge that George Steinbrenner would almost always do whatever it took to add the best new toys to the team each year regardless of cost. However, I think many people in the organization and fans alike grew tired of the lack of in house talent development and throwing away gobs of bad money. Because of the same, many have embraced the Hal way of doing things whereby real budgets seem to be a goal and young talent development and acquisition a focus. While both concepts are meritorious, there is one significant flaw, the Yankees reluctance to go big on spending on talent when they need it unless big money is coming off the books.

In the next couple of years big dollars are coming off the books though not this year barring any trades that would provide such relief. The Yankees rotations has consistently been questionable one through five because of inconsistency, injuries and lack of quality starting talent on the farm to fill those roles but for one exception, Luis Severino. Further, the Yankees entire rotation but for Severino, stands to be free agents in the next couple of years and none of those guys are definitive keepers at this point. I doubt Tanaka opts out unless he returns to his rookie production and his elbow is a non-issue which I think is a bad bet for him and the Yankees on both ends.

This offseason, David Price and Zack Greinke are free agents, as are Johnny Cueto and Jordan Zimmermann. Jason Heyward and Justin Upton are the big ticket free agent position players, and possibly Yoenis Cespedes. The Yankees biggest question marks are the rotation, 2b and the concern what kind of production they are likely to get out of a team whose second half indicates a huge offense decline next year. Notably, the next couple offseasons offer a lot less in the way of options to fix these issues than the current one. Stephen Strasburg is the only real big piece next year and while his talent is without doubt, his health history spells bad contract. Jay Bruce and JD Martinez are the only real young big bats available in the following years I recall.

Looking at what this all means, when CC, Pineda, Eovaldi, Tanaka, Nova all stand to come off the books, the free agency answers will be nothing special. Meanwhile, looking at the Yankees farm system, they do not have a single highly regarded starter who is close enough to the majors to warrant a conversation. Their currently best rated starting prospects are, not in order, James Kaprielien, Rookie Davis, Bradley Lail and Ian Clarklin. Lail is the closest to the majors and is a marginal prospect. The others are too far off to project as the near answer to anything.

Nominal farm prospect and nominal free agent options do not exactly indicate that waiting for the next couple years is an intelligent approach. Price and Greinke are legitimate aces and have been so for the vast part of the last few years. How is waiting for mediocrity to be available an answer to any question about how to achieve success? Rather than waiting, why not do something like sign Price or Upton and maybe Jason Heyward now and then when big money comes off only spend a small portion of it. Trade Gardner in a package for something like Carlos Carasco and Jose Ramirez. Maybe the Yankees can get someone like Seattle or the Cubs to take Ellsbury if the Yankees eat some good money. However, even if none of those things were plausible, the Yankees would only be a very expensive team for a couple years. After that, they could have about $100 mm come off the books in the near future and will not have to spend big to fix that.

An outfield starting with Heyward and Hicks is both young and solid. A rotation with Price, Carasco or some other young piece for Gardner (Heaney? Quintana?), followed by Severino would likely be a solid 1-3 for years to come regardless of what happens with everyone else thereby allowing the Yankees not to have to spend big when big contracts come off the books. With guys like Bird, Judge and Sanchez coming up between now and 2017, and guys like Heyward, Hicks, Gregorious, McCann and maybe a 2b who has been traded for on the books, the Yankees would be in solid shape without spending other than to fill smaller gaps.

Significantly, of all the big ticket free agent options, Price is as close to a no brainer as one can get because it is a rare opportunity to get an ace without losing a draft pick. I can see arguments against Heyward or Upton as their games and production are not without flaws but the same is not true for Price and there is no pick at issue, something which does not apply to any other available ace or top positional player and not likely to occur often with top future free agents.

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Related, some fans have become gun shy about big ticket spending because of being burned on some deals. Sometimes things work out and some do not. You cannot stop doing things just because things do not always work out as planned. Sabathia provided some very good seasons for the Yankees. His weight was always a concern in the back of people's minds and his career downturn reflects that. Ellsbury was a single digit home run hitter whose game is reliant on speed and who had a history of injury though freak in nature. Tanaka is the talent the Yankees thought he was. The bad things about signing Japanese starters is there arguable over usage and type of usage. Rather than go on and on, Price and Greinke have no real caveats that people should be concerned about. Mussina, Pettitte, et al., all pitched well for the duration of their deals, learning to pitch without over throwing, something these guys have learned already. Spend smarter, but do not abandon the big talent pool. Mediocrity does not win anything.

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