First off I hope everyone had a good Father's Day. I appreciate my dad for a lot of things, one of them being the fact that he instilled in me a love for the greatest sports franchise in American history.
Anyway, I noticed that our offense is struggling (again) and that our old buddy Curtis Granderson had a very good day at the dish for the Mets, walking twice, hitting a single, and blasting his 9th home run. Since hindsight is always 20/20, I decided to try to project Granderson's numbers if he was still a Yankee.
Coming into today's game, his home run to fly ball ratio was at 12.3%, much lower than his 2011 rate (20.5%) and 2012 (24.2%). You should remember that Yankee Stadium is essentially tailored to his swing, as Grandy is a dead pull lefty hitter. Also coming into today's game, here are the numbers for Granderson and the Yankee outfielders.
Curtis Granderson: .223/.337/.384/.721
Brett Gardner: .281/.343/.386/.729
Jacoby Ellsbury: .286/.357/.411/.768
Carlos Beltran: .216/.262/.384/.645
Ichiro Suzuki: .314/.369/.347/.717
Alfonso Soriano: .224/.249/.388/.637
I adjusted Granderson's numbers by applying different HR/FB% rates to the 64 fly balls he has put in play this season. Here's what I got:
15% HR/FB%: .230/.343/.413/.756, 10 HR
17.5% HR/FB%: .237/.348/.438/.786, 11 HR
20% HR/FB%: .246/.356/.473/.829, 13 HR
22.5% HR/FB%: .250/.360/.491/.851, 14 HR
There are obviously some problems with my calculations. Still, in a lineup that's already very dependent on the short porch in right field, I think Granderson, who has a proven track record at Yankee Stadium, would be welcome on today's team. After all, from 2011-2013, he put up a line of .252/.344/.528/.872 with 49 home runs in 761 plate appearances, just over a season's worth.
For the price he got (4 years/$60 million), I don't know if bringing him back would have been worth it, especially if you expect a decline in production over the next few years. But if he was willing to take a hometown discount, I definitely think the front office made a mistake in turning him down. Let me know what you think.