The adage is to take 2 out of 3 from the second tier teams and play .500 against the contenders. If we call contenders any team that finished within 3 of the second Wild Card spot, our 2013 American League contenders are the Orioles, the Rays, the Tigers, the A's and the Rangers.
And you know what? On May 26th a loss to the Rays dropped the Yankees to 15-9 before a 4 game set against the Mets and a game against the Red Sox. I would have put money on at least 18-11. Instead the Yanks got swept before picking up the one game against Boston. They finished May 16-13, and then dropped the first two games of May against the Sox.
Counting today's game, the Yankees have 13 games against contenders, and 10 against non-contenders. The end of June is a particularly brutal stretch against teams with very good to great pitching (Rays, Rangers, Orioles). All the same, if the Yankees are a playoff bound team, they'll need to go 7-6 against the contenders and 7-4 against the rest.
14-10. A few games over .500 in June would be great, because the first two weeks of July bring a chance to win a lot of games. Just keep the head above water until then.
This is also on my blog.