FanPost

The Great RISP Dilemma of 2012

It seems like the thing to do lately is to sit around and think of reasons why our Yankees have underperformed so far this season. It's pretty easy to point the finger at a player (or all of them), Girardi (fire the bum!), or Cashman (what's he ever done?!). I know, because I've done each of these things at one point or another, and damn! It was really easy!

It wasn't terribly satisfying, however. Lazy and spoiled I might be, but I do try to be fair. And fairness dictates that I at least get off my entitled butt for long enough to try to do some cursory analysis. I'm not Lord Duggan, so this won't be pretty, or deep, but here goes... (Note: All numbers from fangraphs. All errors from waw.)

The thing that really jumps out at me so far this season - well, aside from the injury bug, and Russell Martin's pathetic attempt at facial hair - is the performance of the team's hitters with runners in scoring position. I could rehash the numbers, but I think we all know that they are pretty ugly. If this team doesn't hit at least one home run, they don't win. Simple as that.

But why? Being a simple man, I looked first at the batting average of our hitters with RISP, compared to their batting averages with runners on in general, and with the bases empty.

Ba_png_medium

Conclusion?

Major-league-theyre-shitty_medium_medium

The team seems to break down into three distinct groups:
- Shitty all the time (Tex and Russ)
- Shitty with men on base (almost everybody else)
- Derek Jeter (Jeter only)

Well, I was on fangraphs anyway, so I figured I could probably look at one of them fancier new-age saberiffic stats, like wRC+:

Wrc_png_medium


Conclusion?

Facepalmbear_medium

All this really seems to show me is that yes, most of the team is performing markedly worse with runners in scoring position. Raul Ibanez is on another planet, of course, and Granderson is at least above average. But most of the team is hitting below average with RISP. And some of these guys have been bloody awful (Robby, Tex, and Russ, take a bow).

But Duggan's post on BABIP made me wonder - how much is BABIP to blame for our woes? Well, to my under-educated eye, the answer is LOTS:

Babip_png_medium

Conclusion? Maybe it's their luck that's shitty, after all. Other than The Captain, no Yankee has a BABIP higher than .250 with RISP in 2012 (numbers as of May 21). Now I'll grant you that this is a small sample size. But in every player's case, these numbers are well below career norms. For some of these guys, the BABIP with RISP is so comically low that they cannot conceivably avoid positive regression unless injury (boo!) shortens that player's season drastically.

Let's look at some of the real discrepancies: A-Rod (.129 vs .312), Martin (.176 vs. .285), Cano (.179 vs. .281), Ibanez (.219 vs. .313), and Jeter (.267 vs. .345). Some of these guys are older, and can't expect a return to their career averages, but even so we can reasonably expect quite a bit of improvement. On a side note, it's hard to believe Ibanez has also been bitten by the BABIP bug, based on his production so far. But while his BABIP is lower than career norms, his wRC+ is much higher. That could be due to the ridiculous ISO numbers he is putting up right now (.390 with runners on base, and .351 with RISP!!).

OK, that's enough faux analysis from me. If any of you have actually read this far, thank you for that!

FanPosts are user-created content and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Pinstripe Alley writing staff or SB Nation.