I did not do a projection for the season at the start of spring training. I said I expected another big development. Well now I think we've had two. We traded AJ and now Andy has come out of retirement.
Let me start by saying this is a very good team no matter who gets to pitch in the rotation. I started my evaluation by looking at the 2011 Yankee pitching stats in terms of who's coming back and who's gone. The pitchers who are gone are primarily AJ and Colon. There are also a bunch of less significant to insignificant contributors like Brackman, Mitre, Noesi etc.
Our returning pitchers threw 907 innings and surrendered 357 runs. This is a rate of 3.54 runs per 9 innings. The pitchers who are gone threw 543 innings and gave up 300 runs, or 4.97 runs per game.
The yankees added Pineda, Kuroda, and Pettitte. I calculate these will pitch nearly as well as last year's returning pitchers. I think they'll allow 3.77 runs per game. This amounts to enough improvement that my first Pythag actually came out at 109 wins. 109!
Well That isn't happening. For one thing, once they clinch they'll take their foot of the gas. The truth is I think the Yanks will score more runs than last year, largely based on better years for Jeter, Tex and Arod.
So, that's it. Yanks win the AL East by a safe margin and end the regular season 102 and 60.