Phil Hughes For Fifth Starter
by Frank Campagnola on Feb 22, 2012 12:00 PM EST
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PrintPlenty of ink will be spilled between the time this article is published and by the time Joe Girardi finally makes his decision, so I'm going to get my obligatory piece out of the way. The Yankees need to select Phil Hughes as their fifth starter for the 2012 season.
My opinion is seemingly baseless, as Freddy Garcia outperformed Hughes in every single pitching metric you can think of last season. Take a look:
|
|
Innings Pitched |
WAR |
ERA |
FIP |
xFIP |
K% |
BB% |
HR/9 |
GB% |
|
Phil Hughes |
74 2/3 |
0.7 |
5.79 |
4.58 |
4.90 |
14.1% |
8.1% |
1.08 |
32% |
|
Freddy Garcia |
146 2/3 |
2.2 |
3.62 |
4.12 |
4.36 |
15.3% |
7.2% |
0.98 |
36.4% |
Numbers from fangraphs.com
Garcia threw nearly twice as many innings, had a lower ERA/FIP/xFIP, struck out a higher percentage of batters, walked a fewer percentage of batters, allowed less homers, and induced a higher percentage of ground balls than Phil Hughes last season.
So why on earth would I take Hughes over Garcia?
Freddy Garcia was a nice surprise in 2011, and the Yankees rewarded him with a $4MM contract with incentives. However, Garcia will be entering his age-35 season and has had some trouble staying healthy over the last five years. Due to his injury history, it is worth wondering how much he has left in the tank. Additionally, it is also worth mentioning that prior to 2011, 2010 was the first time since 2006 that Garcia threw more than 100 innings in a season. Is his arm capable of throwing ~150 innings in 2012?
Outside of the possibility of injury, Garcia was a bit lucky in 2011, as indicated by his pitching triple slash line. Though Garcia sported a sparkling 3.62 ERA, his 4.12 FIP didn't support that, and further, neither did his 4.36 xFIP. Additionally, though his 3.62 ERA translated to an 86 ERA-, his 4.12 FIP translated to a 99 FIP-, meaning Garcia was very average in controlling what he is able to control: strikeouts, walks, and home runs.
Phil Hughes certainly had his difficulties in 2011, and there's no denying that. However, Hughes is under team control for a year longer than Garcia, meaning he could be in the team's plans looking ahead, and though Garcia has the higher floor, Hughes offers more upside.
According to the Bill James projections on fangraphs, Hughes is expected to post a 3.71 ERA and a 3.81 FIP, more than half a run lower than Garcia's expected 4.25 ERA and 4.43 FIP.
Additionally, Hughes is the former top pitching prospect in baseball, but his potential has yet to showcase itself on the mound for a sustained amount of time as a starting pitcher. However, Hughes is finally healthy, spent the offseason training at Athletes' Performance Institute, and showed that he was still a capable pitcher in 2011, as a he posted a 4.55 ERA* and a 3.81 FIP* as a starter after he returned from his DL stint. Notice how the James projections match Hughes' post-injury performance?
Finally, Hughes doesn't need to be spectacular. Unless you're expecting better, Garcia should only be a 1.7-2.2 WAR pitcher in 2012, barring injury or a complete loss of ability. With that said, wouldn't you rather take a risk with a pitcher who is capable of more than just 2 WAR? Even if he doesn't reach that level, due to Garcia's low ceiling, there would not be much of a net loss in wins.
Even though Garcia was better than Hughes in 2011, I'll take my chances with the upside of a 25-year-old former top prospect who is finally healthy over the low upside, average performance of the 35-year-old starter.
*I'm pretty sure these are correct, but I calculated them by hand, so if anyone has different numbers, post them.
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Agreed
Hughes needs to be the fifth starter. I can understand why AJ would have gotten the spot over him, but there’s no reason Garcia should. He’s old, he’s on a one year deal and it’s not for a lot of money.
This is a big year for Hughes. If he wants any chance of being an impact player in the rotation over the next few years, he needs to be good in 2012. If he gets sent to the bullpen now, then I’m afraid that he may never end up going back. At least not with this team.
If they’re serious about making him a starter and giving him the opportunity to live up to his potential he showcased in the minor leagues, then the job needs to be his. Garcia to long relief.
"I could never wear another uniform. I will always be a Yankee"- Jorge Posada
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I disagree
Little darling, it's been a long cold lonely winter
Little darling, it feels like years since it's been here
Here comes the sun
Here comes the sun, and I say
It's all right
Agree - Hughes for Fifth Starter
I agree that we have to give Hughes a shot. He was once our top pitching process and has a chance to be a long-time. young and inexpensive 4th or 5th starter option for years to come. Garcia, at best, gives us one more decent year and that is a big IF considering the stat lines indicate that he got a bit lucky last year. I drool over the possibility (maybe a pipe dream, but possible nonetheless) of a rotation consisting of:
1) Sabathia
2) Pineda
3) Nova
4) Hughes
5) Banuelos
starting in 2013 for may years beyond. When is the last time (if ever in the past 3 decades) did the Yanks have the opportunity to parade FOUR young, quality, mostly home-grown, and INEXPENSIVE pitchers in our rotation behind CC. Not only is this a possibility, but almost a necessity to remain competitive considering the rediculous contracts we have to eat with A-Rod and Tex for the next 5 years (not to mention CC’s 5 years which we very likely will not enjoy good productivity from the big guy the last year or two).
Give Hughes a shot and hope that Garcia is professional about his role in the bullpen. He should know from experience that it is very likely one of the starters will have an injury and he can be plugged into the rotation immediately. Worst case, Hughes flops and Garcia may get his chance anyway. Best case, Hughes improves to the point of being a number 3 starter and most of all, we’ll never have to wonder what could have been.
by The Dirty South on Feb 22, 2012 12:16 PM EST reply actions
have a "competition" in ST
declare Hughes the winner and tell Garcia that he will not start. He gives permission to be traded for something useful and Adam Warren or David Phelps can get the call if Hughes ends up belly flopping.
Garcia
I didn’t like the signing at the time, and liked it even less when we picked up Pineda and Kuroda. Even if Hughes stuggles and needs to be replaced, I’d rather see an arm brought up from AAA (Warren, Phelps, Banuelos, Betances, etc.) to get their feet wet and see what we have than waste those innings on, at best, league average pitching from Garcia.
Garcia is a decent pitcher who still has a place in the major leagues… just not on this team, this year. Hopefully he pitches well in spring training to boost his value for a potential trade. We’d have to be severely unlucky with injuries/performance amongst our SP’s for us to really need him this year.
um
Yankees sign former SEA closer David Aardsma to $500k MLB deal.
Cashman said the Aardsma move has more to do with 2013 as the Yankees hold a club option on the reliever. Compared the move to Jon Lieber.
-Feinsand
apparently there’s also a club option for 2013 and Aardsma won’t be ready until mid-season.
I like this move a lot
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that's surprising
If he and Joba both come back on schedule, they can always trade Wade and cut the second LOOGY. Or maybe even trade Soriano, if he’s pitching well and wants a chance to close.
by long time listener on Feb 22, 2012 12:50 PM EST up reply actions
I have to imagine someone would be interested in Soriano
but I wouldn’t go trading off Wade before Joba and Aardsma show they are healthy and effective
FIP is a terrible stat...
….to measure someone like Garcia. He’s a veteran who works at inducing weak contact, and he was extremely effective last year. Total finesse guy now.
This post could have been 1 line. “Garcia was way better than Hughes last year, but I want to gamble on Hughes’ upside.”
Most arguments are really about context.
by SheaWasBettor21 on Feb 22, 2012 12:55 PM EST reply actions
Absolutely disagree with that assessment of FIP. Strikeouts may not be his thing, but he still needs to control the ball and not give up homers.
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by Frank Campagnola on Feb 22, 2012 1:21 PM EST up reply actions
PItchability
Garcia’s velocity ranged from 70-89 with impeccable command and lots of movement. Not all flyballs have an equal probability of becoming HRs.
This is not to say he will repeat. I’m just saying it’s extremely lazy to marginalize his success last season as luck. He maximized his tools and pitched great last year.
Most arguments are really about context.
by SheaWasBettor21 on Feb 22, 2012 1:28 PM EST up reply actions
He was a bit lucky. There’s really no denying that. If you watched him pitch at all you saw him give up a lot of hard hit balls. That’s supported by a line drive percentage against of 22.3%.
Also, his HR/FB dropped 3% off of his career average. And he gave up less homers despite inducing less grounders than usual? Saying he was a bit lucky isn’t lazy in the least, it’s true.
And his control was not impeccable. He had a 2.76 BB/9, which is good, but not in the elite level like you seem to think.
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by Frank Campagnola on Feb 22, 2012 3:49 PM EST up reply actions
I still want to know why you think FIP is useless in this scenario. Just because he is a finesse pitcher doesn’t mean he should ignore three basic pitching necessities: miss bats, control the ball, keep the ball in the park. Pretty simple.
Contributing writer for Pinstripe Alley.
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by Frank Campagnola on Feb 22, 2012 6:39 PM EST up reply actions
His HR/9...
…was just about league average (1.0).
That’s not all that bad. Considering he’s not a strikeout guy….he can be “average” in the other 2 categories (and he is…actually a bit better than average in BB/9) and have a sub par FIP just because the guy doesn’t strike many people out.
Deception
It’s difficult to quantify deception, which is a shame because it’s such an important part of pitching. FIP is a good indicator, but hardly encompasses the art of pitching.
It’s far too simplistic to assume pitchers have no control over batted balls. There’s a ton of gray between a K and a HR, which FIP largely ignores because it’s difficult to measure.
Most arguments are really about context.
by SheaWasBettor21 on Feb 22, 2012 1:41 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Agree...
…because FIP is really designed to measure a completely different kind of pitching than what Garcia offers. For many guys (guys like CC) it’s a good indicator of his effectiveness.
For those journeyman type guys, who are effective based on PITCHING (and not, necessarily, “stuff”..if that makes sense), it’s not a great indicator.
Garcia is not going to blow anyone’s doors off. But you saw guys look completely lost at the plate against him. Not “swing at everything and strike out lost” but….just unable to effectively DO anything with the pitches thrown over the plate.
Garcia’s pitches are the type that look GREAT (as a hitter)…right up until you swing at it and produce a weak little dribbler to short or a lazy fly ball to right. FIP isn’t measuring that.
Command
and his location was pretty amazing all season. I really enjoyed watching him pitch last year. Every pitch had a purpose.
Most arguments are really about context.
by SheaWasBettor21 on Feb 22, 2012 2:04 PM EST up reply actions
Agreed. I pretty quickly came to expect a quality outing from him.
by MichaelGGBGrabow on Feb 22, 2012 3:09 PM EST up reply actions
I pretty quickly came
Oof. That…nevermind.
by MichaelGGBGrabow on Feb 22, 2012 3:12 PM EST up reply actions
I know what his HR/9 was, but that was not the point I was making. He said FIP was a “terrible stat to measure someone like Garcia” but that simply isn’t true. All pitchers have to do the things FIP measures in order to be successful.
Missing bats, not walking people, and keeping the ball in the park are necessary for success, and those are the three things FIP measures.
Contributing writer for Pinstripe Alley.
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by Frank Campagnola on Feb 22, 2012 6:37 PM EST up reply actions
This is going to be very simple.
Hughes will be given every opportunity to start. It’s his spot to lose because the home grown prospect is much more marketable than the declining, soft tossing veteran scooped up off the scrap heap.
If Hughes isn’t starting, it will be because he didn’t earn it in spring training. If you ask me, it’s going to come down to his velocity. If he’s 93-95, he’s in the rotation. If he’s 89-91 like last year, he’s in the pen where they will try to figure out a way to build arm strength.
Most arguments are really about context.
by SheaWasBettor21 on Feb 22, 2012 12:58 PM EST reply actions
...and this^
Little darling, it's been a long cold lonely winter
Little darling, it feels like years since it's been here
Here comes the sun
Here comes the sun, and I say
It's all right
Hughes has never been a 93-95 pitcher
The only year his average fastball velocity reached 93 was in 2009, out of the bullpen. As a starter, he averages about 91 MPH. So he is a 90-92 MPH pitcher, which is perfectly acceptable. His problem is staying healthy and not attacking the strike zone, not his velocity.
by cookiedabookie on Feb 22, 2012 1:10 PM EST up reply actions
Not entirely true.
His velocity has always fluctuated a lot. He’s been 93-95 in short spurts as a starter, and most of his successful starts had him at least at 92-94.
Average FB velocity according to fangraphs is rarely accurate because so many change ups and 2 seamers are confused for 4 seam fastballs. Nonetheless, a yearly average will not reflect the type of pitcher Hughes needs to be to have sustainable success. (of course, there’s always the tiny chance he develops another plus pitch)
Most arguments are really about context.
by SheaWasBettor21 on Feb 22, 2012 1:19 PM EST up reply actions
I hope you aren't using stadium guns on your 93-95
Because those have more accuracy issues than the fangraph numbers.
And using the Fangraphs velocities, over the last three years, starters with a minimum of 450 IP and an average velocity between 91 and 92.7, 31 total, have averaged 3.4 fWAR per season. I would take that happily from Hughes, and he has a good chance of doing so as long as he stays healthy, even if his velocity stays in the same range.
by cookiedabookie on Feb 22, 2012 2:50 PM EST up reply actions
I say...
…you let them duke it out in ST.
I get where you’re coming from….but I just can’t see some of the points.
Garcia’s durability isn’t as much of an issue, because you’d still have Hughes in the pen…and you could move him into the rotation with relative ease (and the flip side is true, too….whoever ends up in the pen is “rotation insurance”..you’d just likely see Hughes more while Freddy would be prototypical “long man”).
It’s tough to say if Garcia was lucky…of just more dependent on guile. He’s not a strike out pitcher..but his walks (2.8 per 9) were not bad….slightly less than league average His HR/9 (1.1) were league average.
The concern would be: He does take a toll on your bullpen…he managed less than 150 innings.
I don’t think EITHER of them should be “ordained” going in. For all that Hughes has been, or was, or could be…he hasn’t been that since mid-2010. If you look at his projections at the beginning of last season, I’d bet they were close to (if not a bit better) than this seasons projections. But he definitely did not live up to those projections.
Say what you want about Garcia’s “smoke and mirrors” last year…the guy was effective. If you looked at his “projections” last year….I’m sure they’d be somewhat similar to those coming out this year. The fact is…Garcia was better than that.
Meaning…projections are only going to tell you so much. In this case, we have 2 sets of projections for the 2 players we’re talking about that were considerably “off”. Abberation or not…there’s history that would call them into question.
So you go into ST and let those guys earn the spot. Whoever pitches better….gets the ball every 5 days. The other guy goes to the pen. I don’t think we need to hand it to, or try to figure out, who that’s going to be. Not yet, anyway. Lets see them both throw the ball a few times over the next 6 weeks, first.
I think they should actually duke it out.
Hughes (6’5", 240) v. Garcia (6’4", 250).
My money is on the cagey veteran to tire out his younger opponent in the early rounds, then win by decision.
by jscape2000 on Feb 22, 2012 2:43 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
If you looked at his "projections" last year….I’m sure they’d be somewhat similar to those coming out this year. The fact is…Garcia was better than that.
Exactly.
I understand that stats that try and predict what a guy is going to do are helpful and may be accurate, but I hate when people belittle someone’s year because they were “lucky.” If the numbers say he is due for a really large regression, I’m not saying to sign him to a five year deal, but don’t say he didn’t do well because he might not do as well next year.
by MichaelGGBGrabow on Feb 22, 2012 3:05 PM EST up reply actions
I appreciate the criticism of FIP
and I agree that it prejudices current stat projectors. The orthodoxy needs to adjust. But this felt great, thanks guys.
I still don’t understand why people think Garcia can be in the bullpen. If he couldn’t last year because of how long it took him to warm up, why can he now?
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by WhatwouldJeterdo on Feb 22, 2012 1:40 PM EST reply actions
Swing man.
If a pitcher gets hurt early in the game, he can be the long man. Also, there’s a good chance that one of Pineda or Nova hits some arm trouble this year. No matter where Garcia starts the season, he will find himself in the rotation at some point. Just like last year, his signing is an extremely underrated move.
Most arguments are really about context.
by SheaWasBettor21 on Feb 22, 2012 1:45 PM EST up reply actions
I'm less worried about
Pineda or Nova “running into trouble” this season than I am about Hughes. I feel Garcia should get the nod until he falters and is no longer effective. He pitched great last season and Hughes didn’t. Start out with Hughes in the pen, throw him into the rotation when needed.
Little darling, it's been a long cold lonely winter
Little darling, it feels like years since it's been here
Here comes the sun
Here comes the sun, and I say
It's all right
That's what I'd do too.
Unless Hughes’ velocity spikes as a starter in spring training, I’d ride Garcia as long as I could.
Re Nova or Pineda, I’m betting one fails to crack 160 innings.
Most arguments are really about context.
by SheaWasBettor21 on Feb 22, 2012 1:51 PM EST up reply actions
What makes you think that?
Tweets
"Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains"
by WhatwouldJeterdo on Feb 22, 2012 1:57 PM EST up reply actions
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Young power pitchers that throw roughly 1/3 breaking balls are high risks for injury. Here we have 2 of them. I realize both are massive dudes, but I’m playing the odds.
Most arguments are really about context.
by SheaWasBettor21 on Feb 22, 2012 2:02 PM EST up reply actions
Absolutely.
http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=1994&position=P&pitch=FA
Most arguments are really about context.
by SheaWasBettor21 on Feb 22, 2012 2:12 PM EST up reply actions
He can...
…but not as a true reliever. He’s your long man…for when someone gets hurt, or is getting shelled after 3.
I agree…he’s not as EFFECTIVE (or useful) out of the pen as Hughes is. But he’d still hold down a spot just fine.
Then why didn’t they do that with him last year when he was clearly out pitched in Spring Training?
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"Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains"
by WhatwouldJeterdo on Feb 22, 2012 2:04 PM EST up reply actions
Because...
…Colon was more comfortable coming out of the pen, would have been able to be useful more often, was more of a question mark in terms of durability, AND had put significant innings on his arm, already, in the Dominican league over the winter.
So while he pitched better….the organization thought it would be better to start with him in the pen.
And you could argue they weren’t wrong. Garcia was pretty much effective straight through 2011. He didn’t throw a ton of innings, but he was effective.
Colon looked like he tired, late. They Yanks didn’t have the option to keep him in the pen, longer….but you wonder if they’d been able to, if he’d have been effective later into the season.
He's 25 years old.
He’s 25 years old.
He’s 25 years old.
He’s 25 years old.
He’s 25 years old.
He’s 25 years old.
He’s 25 years old.
He’s 25 years old.
NY really pisses me off sometimes with the crazy rushing.
That's actually pretty old considered that he was a high rated prospect
he was ahead of guys like Lincecum, Kershaw, price and etc and all those guys achieved much more before Hughes has at this age.
25 years, 7 months, 30 days
"Don't you think it's strange that you'll make more money than President Hoover this year?"
"Why not? I had a better year than he did." - G.H. Ruth
By the 4th week of March...
We’ll know if Hughes is missing bats again or continues to throw batting practice. Last year this time we were worried about the 3rd and 4th starter. It’s going to be a fun season to watch! I was very impressed with Freddy’s attitude this week, although he looked a little fat.
I was very impressed with Freddy’s attitude this week, although he looked a little fat.
What are you referring to?
by MichaelGGBGrabow on Feb 22, 2012 3:36 PM EST up reply actions
hughes
I agree hughes should be the fifth starter because he is younger… and I think its important to get him going this year so we can possibly have him for the long run
by capz1990 on Feb 22, 2012 8:40 PM EST via Android app reply actions
garcia
I do disagree though with the whole idea of garcia being average at things he can control… garcia pitched great when in danger of giving up runs getting ground balls etc.. that doesn’t show up in walks strikeout home runs
by capz1990 on Feb 22, 2012 8:43 PM EST via Android app reply actions
The three things pitchers have control over are home runs, walks, and strike outs. In those three categories, he was very average.
Ground balls are not things he can control – and speaking of ground balls, he was below average at inducing them.
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by Frank Campagnola on Feb 22, 2012 8:49 PM EST up reply actions
Ground balls are not things he can control
Pitch selection…
by MichaelGGBGrabow on Feb 23, 2012 2:24 PM EST up reply actions
His pitch selection does not control what the batter does with his bat. He could throw the ball in the perfect spot with great movement – that doesn’t mean the batter can’t put a great swing on it and hit it into the gap for a double.
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by Frank Campagnola on Feb 23, 2012 8:41 PM EST up reply actions
Silly
This argument can be made for any pitcher on any given pitch
Little darling, it's been a long cold lonely winter
Little darling, it feels like years since it's been here
Here comes the sun
Here comes the sun, and I say
It's all right
Exactly. That proves what I’m trying to say. That’s why the result can’t be controlled by the pitcher. No pitcher, no matter what pitch he throws, how hard he throws it, or how much it moves, is in absolute control of what is produced off of the batter’s bat.
Contributing writer for Pinstripe Alley.
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by Frank Campagnola on Feb 24, 2012 2:13 PM EST up reply actions
Absolute control? No, of course not, but certain pitches are much more likely to produce one result than another.
by MichaelGGBGrabow on Feb 27, 2012 9:54 AM EST up reply actions
whats a good website to look at stats and also what they are consisted of?
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