What About Right Field? Nick Swisher's Impending Free Agency Looms
Nick Swisher is an impending free agent. The Yankees picked up his $10.25M option for this year, but that's partly because they didn't have any better options. Who will be manning right field in 2013 and beyond?
Swisher will be 32 next season, and probably into his decline phase. He's been a great addition to the lineup (126 wRC+ with the Bombers), but I think the only way the Yanks bring him back is on a team-friendly contract, i.e. short-term (two years max) at no more than $10M per year. That might even be too much considering the club's desire to get payroll under $189M for 2014. So let's look at all the options -
Impending free agents (age in 2013):
Michael Bourn (30): Pros - He's a speedster (215 SB the last four years, the best in MLB) and a great defender. Cons - Bourn's a below average hitter and hasn't played right field since 2007, so would he stay in center while Curtis Granderson moved to RF?
Melky Cabrera (28): Could we see a return of the Melk-man at the end of the season? Pros - We know he has the arm for right field, but what about the bat? He'd been a below average hitter before 2011, but then somehow "turned it on" in Kansas City. He abandoned his on-base skills in favor of swinging for the fences, and it worked: Melky slugged a career high .470 with 18 home runs, good for a 118 wRC+. He'll be just 28. Cons - He had a dreadful .034 Isolated Discipline and hasn't played much right field (27 games the last two years). 2011 could be a fluke - he had a career high .332 BABIP (despite all the other peripherals being normal). Management seemed to think his relationship with Robbie Cano was detrimental. Would they not want the two of them back together?
Shin-Soo Choo (30): Pros - The first actual right fielder so far. Not only that, but he's a damn good right fielder (BRef has him at +8 runs saved per season while UZR has him at +2) with a great bat (~130 wRC+ the last three years). Cons - He's had a fairly extensive injury history, hitting the DL thrice over the last two years.
Andre Ethier (31): Pros - Another true right fielder with a good bat (126 wRC+ over the last three years). Cons - Not as young or as good a defender as I thought (anywhere from -7 to -13 per season).
Josh Hamilton (32): Pros - The best outfielder available with the potential to win a triple crown and play excellent defense. Cons - Hasn't played right field since 2009, and then only sparingly. Has a well known history of injuries and off-the-field problems that New York City might exacerbate. He's only hit the DL once since 2008, but nagging injuries have prevented him from playing in more than 133 games since then.
Torii Hunter (37): Pros - Played a lot of right field in 2011 and still brings a plus bat to the lineup (~118 wRC+ over the last three years). Cons - His hitting has declined each of the last two years. His defense is overrated thanks to a number of highlight catches (BRef and UZR show that his defense is right around average).
Ichiro (39): Pros - Great defensive right fielder with speed and excellent "hit for average" skills. His abnormally low .295 BABIP last year suggests he was bit unlucky. Cons - I bet he retires or goes back to Japan after his current contract is up, considering he'll be 39. He's coming off his worst year (-.4 bWAR) while his defense ranked below average for the first time.
Carlos Quentin (30): Pros - A true right fielder with a plus bat. Has improved each of the last two seasons and would still be in his prime. Cons - His poor defense prevents him being more valuable. Has never played more than 131 games in his six-year career.
Nick Swisher (32): Pros - Also a true right fielder with a plus bat, only Swisher plays average to above defense. And he's been healthy, playing in 150 contests each year in the Bronx. Cons - His baserunning? He's on the wrong side of 30?
B.J. Upton (28): Pros - He'll only be 28, has improved each of the last two years and has good speed (averaged 41 SB the last four years). He's remained healthy, playing in at least 144 games since 2007. Cons - Hasn't played a single pro inning in right field, so although he's a plus defender in center, would he (or Granderson) accept a move to the corner?
Shane Victorino (32): Pros - Maybe the best defender on this list. A ~118 wRC+ over the last three seasons. Cons - Hasn't played right field since 2008, and might've been a bit lucky last year (5.1 bWAR).
Delmon Young (27): Pros - The youngest player so far brings a boatload of potential just as he's entering his prime years. Cons - Almost everything else. He's been an average hitter at best with awful defense. He would be a total "let's hope he can reach a sliver of his potential" signing.
Trade options:
Justin Upton (25): Arizona listened to offers for the phenom this offseason but never found anything worthwhile. He's owed more than $45M over the next your years, so look for Arizona to shop him again after 2012 (he's signed through 2015). Pros - Where to start? Young, (mostly) healthy, already an excellent player (~127 wRC+ over the last three years), and a true right fielder with plus defense (via both BRef and UZR) and speed. Cons - It would require a boatload of prospects to land him. Start with Manny Banuelos and Gary Sanchez and go from there.
Take a chance on me!
Bobby Abreu, J.D. Drew, Magglio Ordonez
- The more I think about it, the more that re-signing Swisher (would he accept a two-year deal?) makes the most sense.
[Sources: BRef, FanGraphs, forecaster.ca, Cot's]
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When looking at the other options...
I like Swish more and more. I’ve always liked him, and he has pretty commendable numbers in all three of his NYY seasons (averaged 3.7 fWAR/season). At that clip, he is actually worth more than he’s being paid. Hopefully, the Yankees do not reverse that trend and overpay by much more.
This goes without saying but it will likely come down to what kind of contract he’s looking for and how this season pans out for him.
I say re-sign Swisher
but 2 year $20 million ain’t gonna get it done. More like 3-4 years for $12-15 million per year. So 3 year, $42 million or 4 year, $50 million are what I would expect.
by cookiedabookie on Feb 21, 2012 12:42 PM EST reply actions
I'd offer Michael Cuddyer money...
Which I believe was 3 years, 31.5 mil. I’d bring back Swisher at that price. I wouldn’t go much higher. Swisher’s a productive player, but he comes with some flaws that aren’t going to get better at his age, especially his prolongled slumps and his struggles against good pitching. His defense will get worse as he hits 34 and 35.
I think he’d probably be attainable at this price, since he’ll be overshadowed on the market by guys like Ethier, Hamilton and Choo (if he bounces back this year), and because I’m sure his preference would be to stay with the Yankees.
by Let's Talk About Tex Baby on Feb 21, 2012 2:43 PM EST up reply actions
Swisher is a much better player than Cuddyer
And will actually be a year younger when he starts his next deal than when Cuddyer starts his current one.
by cookiedabookie on Feb 21, 2012 2:57 PM EST up reply actions
I had a dream that we traded Gary Sanchez and we only had Romine to catch
but Swisher is bad in the playoffs
I'd hang onto Swish
I’d absolutely love to have Justin Upton but that would require emptying the farm system even more than the Montero trade did. I’m not sure thats necessary.
If not Swish, maybe take a flyer on BJ Upton. He has the talent and he’s a plus defender with good speed. Kevin Long may be able to do wonders with his swing.
"I could never wear another uniform. I will always be a Yankee"- Jorge Posada
Thanks for the memories Jorge
emptying the farm system?
I realize that Montero was the best catching prospect we’ve seen in a while, I would hardly count two prospects ‘emptying the farm system.’
I said that trading for Justin Upton would empty it
The Montero trade didn’t- though I consider Montero a pretty big loss regardless.
"I could never wear another uniform. I will always be a Yankee"- Jorge Posada
Thanks for the memories Jorge
I know who WWJD wants
Follow me on twitter @nyybrandonc
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I would cry tears of joy for weeks.
Tweets
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by WhatwouldJeterdo on Feb 21, 2012 1:20 PM EST up reply actions
Haha you know who I’m talking about then
Follow me on twitter @nyybrandonc
Co-Manager/Writer for Pinstripe Alley, Editor/Writer for Blueshirt Banter, Writer for On The Banks
I assume you mean Mike Stanton. If so, you would be correct.
Tweets
"Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains"
by WhatwouldJeterdo on Feb 21, 2012 2:15 PM EST up reply actions
Y’know I played RF in little league….
Follow me on twitter @nyybrandonc
Co-Manager/Writer for Pinstripe Alley, Editor/Writer for Blueshirt Banter, Writer for On The Banks
It’s true, I’m not going to deny I was awful. I could bunt, though! I pinch-bunted multiple times
Follow me on twitter @nyybrandonc
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Not to get off topic
I sent you an email about joining the yahoo league if there was still any openings and I never heard back. Just wondering if maybe it went to the spam folder?
"You kind of took it for granted around the Yankees that there was always going to be baseball in October." - Hall of Fame Pitcher Whitey Ford
Offering Swisher 2/20 is a great way to make sure he doesn't come back
With his production, he’s looking at 15/per, easy.
Johnny Damon came off four years with the Red Sox in 2005 where he produced 3.5 WAR/season. He ended up making 4/52, or 13 per.
Nick Swisher is going to be roughly the same age as Damon after this season. So far, he’s average 3.7 WAR in his time w. the Yankees.
So take $13 million, adjust for inflation, and that’s your Swisher contract. Players never take less than their previous contract unless they are in obvious decline.
And as it is, that is a super unappealing market
The only guy there that sort of excites me is BJ Upton, because he has the skills, the age, and the track record. But I’m worried about that OBP, and Swisher has such an appealing “old guy” skill set that I think he’ll age well.
I also wouldn’t go for J. Upton, because you would have to really give the farm to get him. We’re talking Sanchez + Banuelos + Nunez + + +. His age and performance suggest HoF upside.
Honestly, what I would do next season is re-sign Swisher to play RF, sign BJ Upton to play CF & trade Curtis Granderson for a SS.
by PortlandYankee on Feb 21, 2012 1:31 PM EST up reply actions
I think it's somewhat funny
that a team such as the Yankees agreed to a CBA which leads them to even consider not re-signing productive, relatively young players and probably overpaying for either younger talent or older talent to replace them.
How could it not be cheaper to keep Swisher? All the options Travis listed will either command more money (because they’ll be hitting free agency and shopping around) or are not as productive as Swisher.
Seriously, at the Spring Training complex too?
"WHO WOULD LEAD?! THE CLOWN?!"
ImNotAHRHitter
by I'mGivingYouARaise on Feb 21, 2012 2:18 PM EST reply actions
I saw these two comments and was hoping it was the Marlins home run thing.
Cricket blogger and writer of nonsense at 7500 to Holte
Haha, I did too, at first!
Tweets
"Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains"
by WhatwouldJeterdo on Feb 21, 2012 2:53 PM EST up reply actions
so did I
I can’t view the link. What is it?
by long time listener on Feb 21, 2012 2:54 PM EST up reply actions
Green Monster
Tweets
"Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains"
by WhatwouldJeterdo on Feb 21, 2012 2:59 PM EST up reply actions
the Red Sox put one in their spring training park?
It’s not the worst decision in the world. It’ll give their outfielders a chance to practice playing balls off the Monster. Of course, it’ll give opposing teams a chance too, but I guess they can mitigate that by scheduling fewer games against AL opponents.
by long time listener on Feb 21, 2012 3:09 PM EST up reply actions
It'll benefit them, definitely
But it still looks stupid
"WHO WOULD LEAD?! THE CLOWN?!"
ImNotAHRHitter
by I'mGivingYouARaise on Feb 21, 2012 3:22 PM EST up reply actions
you can say that about the real Monster, too
by long time listener on Feb 21, 2012 4:08 PM EST up reply actions
I do
On a very consistent basis!
"WHO WOULD LEAD?! THE CLOWN?!"
ImNotAHRHitter
by I'mGivingYouARaise on Feb 21, 2012 4:14 PM EST up reply actions
They built a replica in their new Spring Training place
"WHO WOULD LEAD?! THE CLOWN?!"
ImNotAHRHitter
by I'mGivingYouARaise on Feb 21, 2012 2:50 PM EST up reply actions
Positive reinforcement for their hitters?
“Don’t worry about that flyout to left, there’s a big dumb wall to turn that into a double!”
"Don't you think it's strange that you'll make more money than President Hoover this year?"
"Why not? I had a better year than he did." - G.H. Ruth
The Spring Training field is nicer than their own home park.
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by Frank Campagnola on Feb 21, 2012 5:08 PM EST up reply actions
The big detraction of Swisher is that he's getting older
And yet the majority of the realistic RF propositions are either older, as old, or no more than 2 years younger than him. I don’t want to part with the pieces it would take to get Justin Upton, and I want no part of BJ Upton or Delmon Young. I think that our best option is to re-sign Swisher, unless he shows serious signs of regression this season.
I know where I come from, and when you always have in mind where you come from the rest will be easy. I think the rest will be easy.
-- M. Rivera
Swisher until a prospect or other better option presents itself
None of the options listed above strike me as markedly better than sticking with Swisher.
I have a question about luxury tax calculation
Do they go by average annual value, or the actual payroll? It seems like the Yankees could sneak Swisher on the payroll by signing him to a three-year deal worth a lot in 2013, very little in 2014, then a lot in 2015. Is that possible, or do they take that into account when assessing luxury tax?
by long time listener on Feb 21, 2012 2:46 PM EST reply actions
What is the stop ahead of you?
Jamaica?
"WHO WOULD LEAD?! THE CLOWN?!"
ImNotAHRHitter
by I'mGivingYouARaise on Feb 21, 2012 3:23 PM EST up reply actions
I get off at the last stop
If you consider the stop before that a stop ahead of me, that would be 169th Street on the F, Mets/Willets Pt. on the 7. If you consider the stop after a stop ahead, then there is no stop ahead.
by long time listener on Feb 21, 2012 4:10 PM EST up reply actions
We should probably stop before this gets out of hand
"WHO WOULD LEAD?! THE CLOWN?!"
ImNotAHRHitter
by I'mGivingYouARaise on Feb 21, 2012 4:14 PM EST up reply actions
Stop, or my mom will shoot!
"WHO WOULD LEAD?! THE CLOWN?!"
ImNotAHRHitter
by I'mGivingYouARaise on Feb 21, 2012 4:16 PM EST up reply actions
Stop was a great Jane's Addiction song
"WHO WOULD LEAD?! THE CLOWN?!"
ImNotAHRHitter
by I'mGivingYouARaise on Feb 21, 2012 4:18 PM EST up reply actions
F train to 169 or further up Hillside Ave
put you too close to my neighborhood. You’re gonna have to move!
"I don't want one of those guys who'll drive in two but let in three every game." Casey Stengel
by tnredneckyankeesfan on Feb 21, 2012 4:33 PM EST up reply actions
Take me to another place
"WHO WOULD LEAD?! THE CLOWN?!"
ImNotAHRHitter
by I'mGivingYouARaise on Feb 21, 2012 5:24 PM EST up reply actions
now that is an obscure reference
Been a long time since I’ve heard that song.
by long time listener on Feb 21, 2012 5:27 PM EST up reply actions
Such a classic song!
"WHO WOULD LEAD?! THE CLOWN?!"
ImNotAHRHitter
by I'mGivingYouARaise on Feb 21, 2012 6:58 PM EST up reply actions
I was born in Tennessee
have lived in Queens for almost 5 years now.
"I don't want one of those guys who'll drive in two but let in three every game." Casey Stengel
by tnredneckyankeesfan on Feb 21, 2012 6:28 PM EST up reply actions
I feel like...
We are only giving Swisher a nod due to the fact he has been with us for the past 3 years. Most of the guys listed here who have pop would produce similar RBI totals to Swisher’s in a lineup like the Yankees.
To say Swisher is a plus bat but Delmon Young is average at best is crazy. Delmons career average is considerably better than Nick Swisher’s. We cant be so sure to condemn some of these guys for their “cons” but then question Swisher’s as not being serious enough. If Swisher truly had no cons he would receive much better than a one or two year deal.
If you want to keep Swisher due to his importance in the dugout or just so as Yankee fans we can not have to see a load of different faces coming in and out every year, fine. Let’s not fool ourselves by turning Swisher into the only player on this list without a serious fault.
Lord Howard, Thy Holy Osgood, and Todd Bertuzzi --The Trinity of douche bags.
by SportsDalaiLama on Feb 21, 2012 3:37 PM EST reply actions
You suck!
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Here's a cheaper option.
They can sign me for league minimum.
Pros- Only 25, not injury prone, can play LF/RF, switch hitter
Cons- I’d likely make Tex look like GGBG on the bases.
"When my time on Earth is gone, and my activities here are past, I want they bury me upside down so all my critics can kiss my a**"- Bob Knight
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by JumpinJackFlash on Feb 21, 2012 4:34 PM EST reply actions
If the concern is Swisher's age
Then I don’t know why Ichiro or Hunter are even part of the discussion. I might consider Hamilton or Melky if they couldn’t work things out with Swish.
When you come to a fork in the road, take it!
- Yogi Berra
by In The Big Inning on Feb 21, 2012 7:45 PM EST reply actions
I’ve been thinking a lot about what it would take to get Justin Upton(even though I know it’s farrrrrr fetched). I just can’t get a feel of how much it would take. The price is going to come down the closer he comes to the end of that 4 year deal, but I would love to have the guy obviously. I’m just curious where people stand/would react to giving up the Killer B’s for him. My guess for the price would be both Killer B’s. How would people feel about that?
It would probably be more than just the Killer B's.
This is a legitimate MVP candidate on the cheap until 2015. It would probably START at Killer B’s, Sanchez, and Mason Williams.
"Don't you think it's strange that you'll make more money than President Hoover this year?"
"Why not? I had a better year than he did." - G.H. Ruth
IF Swish wants too much
Do the Yankees move Gardner to right field, move Granderson to left and then see if Mason Williams is ready for the center field job?
…after this season? No way Williams is ready.
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by WhatwouldJeterdo on Feb 22, 2012 1:43 AM EST up reply actions
surprisingly his arm is fine
but you’d be wasting his range in RF.
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