Rob Neyer: Should Tex Bunt More?
Via a FanGraphs article, the answer could be yes.
4 months ago
Travis G
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I think everyone should bunt to third base
When we face the Tigers.
"WHO WOULD LEAD?! THE CLOWN?!"
by I'mGivingYouARaise on Feb 2, 2012 4:07 PM EST reply actions
First or third, we can't go wrong
Though with Prince rumbling down the line, a little guy like Gardner might get knocked off his feet by the earth tremors.
by waw on Feb 2, 2012 4:19 PM EST up reply actions
There were 750 successful bunt hits in 2011 with 3209 attempts, not including sacrifices, meaning that those bunting for a hit batted .234/.234/.234, a hefty .468 OPS.
Does anyone seriously think that a painfully slow Mark Teixeira with no bunting experience is going to improve on his .835 OPS in 2011 by bunting for a hit because the 3rd baseman is giving him a few extra feet down the line? Do it once or twice if it’s a particularly comatose 3rd baseman (Miggy) just to throw them off, but outside of that, it’s a really bad strategy that will get Tex applause for being a “gamer” even if it only work 10% of the time and is hurting the team.
He’d be much better off trying to re-learn how to drive an outer-third fastball to the opposite gap than wasting his time with this bullshit.
but it's not "a few extra feet"
Most teams play him well off the line, with the third baseman at shortstop. It doesn’t have to be an especially good bunt – anything that gets past the pitcher’s mound on the third base side is a guaranteed hit. Until they stop playing him that way, in which case he can resume his normal approach.
by long time listener on Feb 2, 2012 5:00 PM EST up reply actions
Except with Tex running, the pitcher and 3rd baseman have a ton of time to recover, and in order for it to be an improvement over his production when he swings away, he needs to be doubly effective as the average bunter. Not going to happen.
I don't think the pitcher or 3B can cover that
I understand how slow Tex is, but he’s not so slow that he’s going to be thrown out on a bunt that gets past the pitcher. Either fielder would be going away from first base and would have to overcome that to make the throw. I think Tex beats that. Whether he can get that type of bunt down properly on a consistent basis is a different story, but if he can, I think he’ll get a single out of virtually every time, which would force a change in how he’s defended.
by long time listener on Feb 2, 2012 5:12 PM EST up reply actions
Here is a list of everyone in baseball who got at least 10 bunt hits in 2011 and succeeded at a >40% clip:
Emilio Bonafacio (18, 41.9%)
Peter Bourjos (17, 44.7%)
Michael Bourn (13, 44.8%)
Danny Espinosa (11, 44.0%)
Count me as skeptical that the next addition to that list is Mark Teixeira.
but how many guys get that kind of shift?
If he was planning on using his speed or deftness bunting, then I’d say there’s no chance. But I still think all he has to do is bunt it past the pitcher’s mound on the third base side and he’s got a hit. He may not get to 10 because they change their approach, or because he fails a couple times and gives up, but I contend it’s not implausible – and is in fact quite possible – that he can bunt successfully enough times to make it worth our while.
by long time listener on Feb 2, 2012 5:24 PM EST up reply actions
I really pray that any opponent is stupid enough to take the shift off of Tex in fear of his bunting. It may work once or twice as a surprise gimmick coupled the happenstance of a well placed bunt, but doing it enough times successfully (20 or more) for teams to need to take the shift off of him is laughable.
The thing is that they should be concerned about Tex getting on base more often
Last year, 26 bunt hits from Tex would have given ARod 26 more and Cano almost 26 more opportunities to hit with another man on base. This year, it will probably be similar. Tex couldn’t bunt for a hit and then steal his way into scoring position like GGBG could, but having more men on base will lead to more runs being scored. Simply because of the strength of the players who typically bat behind Tex.
agreed!
"Performance comes from work and dedication, belief and strength. Words and excuses get you nowhere." -Jason Heyward, Atlanta Braves Rightfielder
And you will notice that there was no one on that list of doing it 1) often enough to matter in terms of strategy and 2) successfully who was doing it to beat the shift. No one.
the second point is sort of one of my points
Very few guys face the shift, so very few guys have the opportunity for “easy” bunt hits. Off the top of my head, I can only think of Tex and Ortiz who face the pronounced shift. If more guys faced it, more would have the opportunity to bunt, and there might be more bunt hits. Of course, the shift is reserved for slow, left-handed pull hitters who are unlikely to bunt well, so it’s hard to say how it would be in another scenario, or how that scenario has any bearing on how likely Tex is to beat the shift with the bunt.
by long time listener on Feb 2, 2012 5:40 PM EST up reply actions
Even if he doesn't get a single out of it virtually every time, it would still be an improvement
If he were to manage even just a 30% success rate against it, that’s still approximately 1 bunt single per game from the left side of the plate. And to get the 1 hit per week mentioned in the article, he would only need to be successful at maybe a 10% rate (assuming 10 AB/week against right-handed pitchers while the other team is shifting, which isn’t a low guess). Simply succeeding at it a couple times a week would improve his average significantly, and possibly even make managers stop utilizing the shift against him.
you would have to take into account what it might do to his other ABs
If utilizing the bunt caused him to change his approach, then that might have an impact on his non-bunting ABs. It could be negative or positive, but it might make a difference one way or the other. (Worst-case scenario would be him bunting foul on a regular basis, thus getting behind in the count and wasting good pitches. Best case might be him learning to use all fields and pitchers pitching to avoid the bunt and making mistakes.)
by long time listener on Feb 2, 2012 5:44 PM EST up reply actions
The point is, if he lays down a few bunts then defenses will adjust.
Managers won’t give him bunt singles for free, not in this lineup. If they have to respect the bunt, even if it’s not successful every time, what it leads to ultimately is a more reasonable shift, rather than the absurd David Ortiz in his prime shift.
The defense absolutely will not adjust. If I was an opposing manager and saw Mark Teixeira squaring around to bunt I would laugh and let him try and be glad to turn a middle of the order power bat into a slow version of Brett Gardner.
if he's routinely turning them into hits, I think they have to adjust
by long time listener on Feb 2, 2012 5:16 PM EST up reply actions
Unless Tex has been practicing bunting in secret since high school just to catch people by surprise when he unleashes it in 2012, the chance of him having enough bunt hits to negate the shift is about the same as Ramiro Pena’s chance of leading the team in home runs.
I still say he doesn't have to be especially good at it
Even what would be a lousy bunt under normal circumstances has a chance to succeed the way they play Tex.
by long time listener on Feb 2, 2012 5:29 PM EST up reply actions
Right, I would have much preferred him to have come out and said “I will try to be a better, more well rounded hitter and adjust”, not “I will try to do something that I have zero experience with”
by MichaelGGBGrabow on Feb 2, 2012 5:18 PM EST up reply actions
He should never bunt if there is a third baseman
IMO opinion, the only time Tex should bunt is when the shift is on, which he SHOULD do in my opinion. It’s almost like a free single. But you are right, he doesn’t have any reason to be bunting when the third baseman actually covers third.
I know where I come from, and when you always have in mind where you come from the rest will be easy. I think the rest will be easy.
-- M. Rivera
That's what the article is saying.
If the shift is on, a bunt has a good chance of resulting in a free hit. If the shift is not on, a bunt as a good chance of resulting in a free out (with Tex).
agreed!
"Performance comes from work and dedication, belief and strength. Words and excuses get you nowhere." -Jason Heyward, Atlanta Braves Rightfielder
Context!
If Tex can execute consistently enough to outperform his normal OBP, there is a place for him to bunt. Of course, if the opposing manager is any good, he will adjust accordingly.
For example, if Tex’s normal OBP is .360, and you feel he can bunt well enough to produce a .400 OBP vs the shift, this is useful if he’s leading off the 8th inning and you’re down 3 runs. Of course, practically speaking, a lack of data will make a statistical analysis irrelevant, so you’re dependent on scouting.
If Tex can execute enough to create the perception that he can outperform his normal OBP, and this discourages the shift, you increase his BABIP.
2 outs, 5th inning, 1 run game, I’m using the shift on Tex. 3 run lead, 7th inning, 2 outs, I’d consider taking the shift off and taking away the bunt. It all comes down to context and Tex’s ability to bunt, which none of us know right now.
Most arguments are really about context.
by SheaWasBettor21 on Feb 3, 2012 7:09 AM EST up reply actions
Duggan, got to disagree with you
Tex as lefty in 2011: .224/.325/.453
Tex with the bases empty (LH or RH): .215/.302/.408
I don’t have access to tell how many bases empty hits Tex got as a lefty, but it’s got to be ugly.
That’s the situation when Tex should bunt, or show bunt.
If he can actually learn to do it successfully when they play the shift on him? Sure.
But, you know, he won’t. Even he can learn to bunt better he’s still probably too slow to run it out.
Only time I remember thinking of him as fast was when the lolmets failed with that popup.
I believe in AJ Burnett
I'd believe it when I see it
Instead of bunting, why not just shorten up his stroke to hit a ball towards the third base line? If there are runner(s) on, the chances of advancing him advancing two bases are greater than a bunt.
by Scooby Snacks on Feb 2, 2012 5:48 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Haha!!
Just saw the wiki mention of it…“partially visible during a game”. What is 55ish feet tall and is partially visible??
by MichaelGGBGrabow on Feb 2, 2012 6:05 PM EST up reply actions
You only get the treat of seeing the spinning plastic fish during home runs.
by WhatwouldJeterdo on Feb 2, 2012 6:08 PM EST up reply actions
The way wikipedia describes it though, you would think the structure itself is mostly hidden from view. It’s also crazy to compare it to the Met’s apple
Home Run Feature: Dead center field is expected to have a home run feature akin to Citi Field’s Home Run Apple but different in design and feel. The piece, designed by Red Grooms, will be located behind the outfield wall, partially visible during a game. It is expected to be between 50 feet (15 m) to 60 feet (18 m) tall, with bright pink, blue, aqua, and orange colors along with many moving parts.
by MichaelGGBGrabow on Feb 2, 2012 6:25 PM EST up reply actions
It's just allllllllllll coming together......
"WHO WOULD LEAD?! THE CLOWN?!"
by I'mGivingYouARaise on Feb 2, 2012 9:31 PM EST up reply actions
If you got rid of that thing, it would look pretty nice.
But that thing just makes it absurdly funny instead.
Cricket blogger and writer of nonsense at 7500 to Holte
Oh yeah, I can’t wait to get down there.
by MichaelGGBGrabow on Feb 2, 2012 6:25 PM EST up reply actions
whoever hits the first home run to set that thing off will be a national hero
by long time listener on Feb 2, 2012 9:39 PM EST up reply actions
If I go there and a home run isn’t hit, I will be forced to break inside and activate it.
by MichaelGGBGrabow on Feb 3, 2012 8:14 AM EST up reply actions
My God…mad pandas gonna pander
I don't always start non-Twitter hashtags, but when I do it's #JEDI4PSA
Rec Generating Database
by Jedi Master A-Rod on Feb 2, 2012 10:43 PM EST reply actions
I was off by a few days
I don't always start non-Twitter hashtags, but when I do it's #JEDI4PSA
Rec Generating Database
by Jedi Master A-Rod on Feb 2, 2012 10:52 PM EST up reply actions
- I’m guessing you try this before you consider the “$20+ million slugger strategy”. Hence, his wOBA vs the shift is probably preferable to his ability to go oppo.
- I think 2 recent years of BABIP data is a non-random sample.
- There’s room for improvement in a .350-ish OBP.
Most arguments are really about context.
by SheaWasBettor21 on Feb 3, 2012 7:18 AM EST up reply actions
…"$20+ million slugger bunting strategy".
Most arguments are really about context.
by SheaWasBettor21 on Feb 3, 2012 7:20 AM EST up reply actions
Bunting for a single, if Teixeira masters the technique, is useful in limited situations-
For example, bases empty, down by two runs, ninth inning. Since most teams do not shift with runners on base, the bunt single would not even be in the discussion in RISP situations. 5 or 6 bunt singles over the course of the season would be a realistic number.
by designatedquitter on Feb 3, 2012 10:42 AM EST reply actions
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