What To Expect From Derek Jeter In 2012

by Chris McKeown on Feb 15, 2012 9:01 AM EST in New York Yankees Analysis

After facing scrutiny nearly all of last offseason for the way his new contract negotiations were being publicly handled, this offseason has had a much different feel to it. Derek Jeter's name hasn't been thrown around very often since the Yankees lost Game 5 of the American League Divisional Series.

Jeter, who unbelievably turns 38 in June, eclipsed the 3,000 hit mark on July 10 last year and appears to have a decent amount of baseball left in him.

Although, frankly, it didn't seem like it last June.

Just as he was DL'd running out a routine fly ball to right field, Jeter was merely 68 for 232 (.260) while reaching base and slugging at a clip of .324. In 62 games, he had only 12 extra base hits to show for.

While he very well may have been feeling the pressure to knock his 3,000th hit out of the way quickly in order to turn attention to more important issues, such as winning games, it was evident that Jeter didn't look quite right.

All that changed when he came off the disabled list on July 4.

From July 4 to September 28 (69 games), Jeter went on an absolute rampage:

94 for 284 (.331), .384 OBP, .447 SLG, and a .390 BAbip - Bref

Everything Jeter hit found grass. "El Capitan" was back and looked ten years younger. This could very well be attributed to Gary Denbo, Jeter's former hitting instructor in the minor leagues, who spent time with Jeter while he was rehabbing.

But the reality is that he's not getting any younger. So what exactly can we expect from Derek Jeter in 2012?

The following is essentially a chart of Jeter's ball-in-play tendencies broken down into line drives, groundballs and fly balls.

March 31 – June 11 (62 games)

July 4 – Sept. 28 (69 games)

Groundballs

153 (66.0%)

136 (58.9%)

Fly Balls

52 (22.4%)

34 (14.7%)

Line Drives

27 (11.4%)

61 (26.4%)

Total Balls in Play

232

231

As you can see, something clearly clicked for the captain. With a virtually identical sample size of balls hit into play, the change in distribution between his pre-DL and post-DL play is incredible.

While there could possibly be some disparity between what constitutes a fly ball or line drive, his decrease in amount of balls hit on the ground can't be disputed.

Here's another look:

Groundballs

Fly Balls

Line Drives

Pre-DL (62 games)

153 (52.9%)

52 (60.5%)

27 (30.7%)

Post-DL (69 games)

136 (47.1%)

34 (39.5%)

61 (69.3%)

Total # of times event occurred

289

Jeter hit nearly 70% of his total line drives in 2011 after he adjusted his swing during his rehabilitation time down in Tampa, Fl.

While I'm not implying that Jeter is going to keep up these insane numbers, I'd say it's a safe bet to expect Derek Jeter to have an above-average season if he maintains whatever he did after his calf injury.

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even assuming Jeter cools down from this

From July 4 to September 28 (69 games), Jeter went on an absolute rampage:

94 for 284 (.331), .384 OBP, .447 SLG, and a .390 BAbip – Bref

Assuming his legs are solid beneath him and hes in good shape (come on its Jeter), im hoping for a .290 / .360 / .420 season from him.

Honestly im more concered about the nearly as old guy to the right of him than i am Jeter.

by GriffMan on Feb 15, 2012 9:47 AM EST reply actions

Those look close enough to Bill James’ projection for the season. I’d gladly take those numbers.

"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring." --Rogers Hornsby

@csm5206

by Chris McKeown on Feb 15, 2012 9:51 AM EST via mobile up reply actions

Everyday and twice on sundays.

by MichaelGGBGrabow on Feb 15, 2012 10:30 AM EST up reply actions

I think somewhere in the middle of the last two years is realistic

His two year triple slash is .282/.347/.378. Anything beyond a .280/.350/.380 is probably too optimistic at this point.

by cookiedabookie on Feb 15, 2012 4:05 PM EST up reply actions

My projections:

1: Gift basket improvement- +20-25%, measured in $$ value.
2: Bald spot enlargement- +10%. This is why baseball players wear caps.
3: ‘Slowing Down Denials’- – 15%. I expect Derek Jeter to hit between .300 and .310.

If he stays relatively healthy- fewer hits to the hand on HBPs, a career average season is not out of the question. I see no reason why he shouldn’t continue to hit line drives. Defensively, I expect more of the same- he will properly handle every ball he gets to.

by designatedquitter on Feb 15, 2012 10:31 AM EST reply actions

Coco Crisp's thoughts on Cespedes

Crisp told Slusser, “Unless he’s a demigod come down from the heavens, no one is going to outshine me in center field.”

by jetanumba2 on Feb 15, 2012 10:43 AM EST reply actions

Coco Crisp thinks only a "demigod" can outshine him?

There’s self-confidence, and there’s self-delusion. The second thing is now called “Coco Crisp’s Disease.”

by long time listener on Feb 15, 2012 10:50 AM EST up reply actions 2 recs

Brett Gardner, Demigod

BOOM.

by jetanumba2 on Feb 15, 2012 10:57 AM EST up reply actions

BGDG?

"Love and fighting... Love and fighting, and a little wine. Then you are always young, always happy."
My Blog | Twitter

by jscape2000 on Feb 15, 2012 11:34 AM EST up reply actions

GGDG.

Just once I'd like someone to call me "Sir," without adding, "You're making a scene."

by YankeeCarp on Feb 15, 2012 11:41 AM EST up reply actions

I'm not all that worried about him

I don’t think he’ll be as ridiculously good as he was in the second half of 2011, but I think he’ll easily be an above average hitter and one of the better hitting shortstops in baseball. I have no problem with him as the leadoff hitter going into 2012.

"I could never wear another uniform. I will always be a Yankee"- Jorge Posada

Thanks for the memories Jorge

by nyyrocks29 on Feb 15, 2012 11:11 AM EST reply actions

funny how thoughts on leadoff hitter

changed from 2010 offseason to 2011 offseason… not you personally but the blogosphere in general.

Last offseason we were dealing with whether Jeter should ever hit leadoff again.

by GriffMan on Feb 15, 2012 12:50 PM EST up reply actions

It was mindboggling the sentiment that was going around on this site.

Romine!

by david d on Feb 15, 2012 12:52 PM EST up reply actions

pre-3000 Jeter was not a good leadoff hitter

Post-3000 Jeter, and projected 2012 Jeter – that’s a different story. After seeing what he did last year I will be much slower to doubt him, but everyone gets old, and I hope the Yankees can gracefully push him down the lineup if that’s what’s best for the team.

by long time listener on Feb 15, 2012 1:05 PM EST up reply actions

It will be

very interesting to see which direction his game goes. I wouldn’t be surprised by any result, good or bad. I expect something like last season, but I could also see 2010 if age catches up to him.

Romine!

by david d on Feb 15, 2012 1:10 PM EST up reply actions

I see Jeter have a similar year to his second half of last year.

At least I’m hoping.

Linning and Winning!

by Joe21 on Feb 15, 2012 1:17 PM EST reply actions

you think he's going to hit .331?

by long time listener on Feb 15, 2012 1:20 PM EST up reply actions

The 2nd half was entirely unsustainable. I hope he will have a good season, obviously, but expecting 2nd half 2011 is just not really realistic.

Tweets
"Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains"

by WhatwouldJeterdo on Feb 15, 2012 1:22 PM EST up reply actions

Well I expect a good year.

Not exactly the second half. Which I didn’t realize was THAT good when I typed that. Also having not have in my earlier post.

Linning and Winning!

by Joe21 on Feb 15, 2012 1:23 PM EST up reply actions

I expect certain things from Jeter in 2012

Clutchiness
Jeterianism
and Smiles!

"WHO WOULD LEAD?! THE CLOWN?!"
ImNotAHRHitter

by I'mGivingYouARaise on Feb 15, 2012 2:01 PM EST reply actions

Can’t forget the smiles

"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring." --Rogers Hornsby

@csm5206

by Chris McKeown on Feb 15, 2012 2:22 PM EST up reply actions

Derek Jeter will hit leadoff until they pry the bat from his cold, dead hands.

So live with it. If his hitting got to the point where the manager insisted on his batting in the bottom third of the order, I think Jeter would simply retire. That said, I now think that he will be a plus- hitting shortstop until the end of his present contract, after which he should retire.

by designatedquitter on Feb 15, 2012 2:13 PM EST reply actions

x

I'm a bad example for the kids at home according to people on the Internet.
#JEDI4PSA

by Jedi Master A-Rod on Feb 15, 2012 2:41 PM EST reply actions 3 recs

Rec’d.

"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring." --Rogers Hornsby

@csm5206

by Chris McKeown on Feb 15, 2012 3:21 PM EST up reply actions

No summer sausage?

Live every week like it's shark week.

by Sgurd0187 on Feb 15, 2012 5:09 PM EST up reply actions

I think Jeter will have a very similar season to last year, maybe even crack .300 again. I think some of his struggles last year were a bit mental/pressure created. I think he still has a good left in the tank.

by cermolaNY2 on Feb 15, 2012 10:52 PM EST reply actions

I’m going with Jeter hitting .285-.292 and competent in the field.

by bleedsyankeeblue on Feb 16, 2012 3:02 AM EST reply actions

175

I think Jeter will be in the .290 range (possibly a bit higher). And ….. barring any significant injuries, should get about 175 hits which would move him up to 12th on the career hits list just past Eddie Murray at 3255. If he does this, then he is positioned very well (even with some drop-off in production) to move up to about #6 or #5 on the career list by the end of his contract.

by Jeff I on Feb 16, 2012 8:33 AM EST reply actions

Not worried about Jeter this season.

Aside from any mental stress over 3,000, it seemed to be, from what was shown on the DJ3K documentary, a simple case of him not staying back on the ball and keeping his head down. Once he worked on that, he was hitting the ball harder and driving the ball all over the field. I wouldn’t be surprised if he worked with Denbo again this offseason for a bit. Defensively, he’ll be Jeter – he’ll get to balls hit to him, balls hit no more than 3 steps to his left, and balls hit no more than 1 step to his right. I think a prediction of .290-.300 is likely, and I’m good with that.

Reporter: "Joe, how closely were you following the Red Sox score on the scoreboard throughout the game?"
Girardi: "Well, I mean, it's hard not to see it. Our scoreboard's really big."

"Red Sox Nation? What a bunch of bullshit that is." - Hank Steinbrenner

by Ella Grace on Feb 16, 2012 2:57 PM EST via mobile reply actions

Jeter

by OldYankee77 on Feb 26, 2012 1:21 PM EST reply actions

Jeter

I have trouble understanding some of you guys. Have you never seen A-Rod or Rizzuto play SS? Granted Rizzuto didn’t have the bat of Jeter but, defensively and clutch hitting, no comparison. A-Rod, now there is the best all around SS I have ever seen and the best in the record books also.
What is wrong with you guys, Jeter has a few Yankee records…heck, he has batted 1st or 2nd for 18 years, he should have some hitting records…But, I ask you, WHAT Major League record does he have? None!
Never be another Jeter, what a joke…he is the best hitting SS the Yankees have ever had, no doubt about that at all. And he has helped the Yankees win 4 rings. Rizzuto had 7 and five in a row. They said there would never be another this guy or that guy ever since I saw my first game back in 1948.

by OldYankee77 on Feb 26, 2012 1:41 PM EST reply actions