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Yankees Fantasy Picks

I'll give you my best fantasy baseball advice - mind you, I've never actually won a fantasy baseball league - but that doesn't matter, because I'm going to keep trying.

Best hitter: Robinson Cano

It's a toss up between two lefties, but I'll have to go with the more consistent producer. Grandy was better last year, but I think that was more of an anomaly than a new level of production. Cano is all but guaranteed to post numbers similar to 2011. I just don't have that same confidence in Grandy, who's more likely to regress after an MVP-caliber campaign (which, by the way, was only a little better than Cano's).

Best pitcher: Please

This is too easy. There's one man who stands above the rest, literally. No Yankee pitcher's had as good a season as CC's 2011 since Andy Petitte's 1997. He gets wins (59 the last three years) and strikeouts (624), stays healthy (705 IP), and has a dynamite ERA (3.18).

Star-divide

Breakout: Mark Teixeira

Not that he hasn't been great before, but relative to 2011, he's due to bounce back. A career low .239 BABIP suggests 2012 will be a more Teixeira-like season. He maintained a solid 18% line drive rate and peripherals (K, BB, GB and FB rates) right in line with his career averages. I could easily see him putting up a line far closer to '09 than '11.

Disappointment: A-Rod

Will the controversial surgery A-Rod had in December keep him healthy? Even if it does, I still have doubts he won't disappoint in 2012. You might say, "But didn't A-Rod disappoint in 2011?" Yes, but '12 could be even worse.

Prospect to Watch: David Phelps

Phelps was named a potential "Next Michael Pineda" because of his fastball velocity (92 MPH) and control (4.4% BB rate). He throws a variety of pitches, and despite not having eye-popping numbers, seems to have a knack for preventing runs. Despite a good-but-not-great 1.18 career WHIP and 3.7 K/BB rate, he's never had a season ERA higher than 2.99. I think the scouts would say, "He just knows how to pitch." If A.J. Burnett gets traded and injuries occur, Phelps - due to his advanced age (25) and minor league success - will probably be the first call-up to the rotation.

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My take...

The best players don’t always mean the best fantasy value. Here are my picks, with consideration to draft value and potential return:

Best Hitter: A-Rod- He’s going, on average, as the 6th third baseman off the board (ADP:59). Has the potential to return far greater value than where he is being selected. Will be a bargain for the first time in his career.

Best Pitcher: Hiroki Kuroda- Of course CC is the best pitcher on the staff, but you’ll need to pay for him early (ADP:29). I hate taking pitchers early, considering how much value you can grab in the middle rounds. Pineda is a great upside play, but he’s no value at this point (ADP:95). That brings us to Kuroda, who could win 15 games and post strong ratios and strikeout totals. Not bad for a middle to late round pick (ADP:167).

Disappointment: Curtis Granderson- if he repeats his 2011, that’s great. But he’s due for some regression, and last season could wind up as an outlier. With a second round pick (ADP:20), you are paying full value for a guy coming off a career year. I love Grandy, but I’m passing in fantasy.

Prospect to watch: Manny Banuelos- This is a a tough one, since I’m not sure there is a Yankee prospect worthy of having a significant year in fantasy. I’ll take the guy with the highest upside all day long.

You can read my thoughts on all things New York sports at SNYWhyGuys.com
Minor League/Prospect writer for Pinstripe Alley
Check out Minor Developments on Yahoo! for additional prospect coverage

by Rob Steingall on Feb 13, 2012 9:27 AM EST reply actions  

Phelps could be a Pineda? I think that's a reach.

Phelps doesn’t really project anywhere higher than a back-end starter, whereas Pineda has ace potential. He’s also 2.5 years older than Pineda…

"Don't you think it's strange that you'll make more money than President Hoover this year?"
"Why not? I had a better year than he did." - G.H. Ruth

by Andrew GM on Feb 13, 2012 1:17 PM EST reply actions  

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