Hope for Phil Hughes?
by Frank Campagnola on Jan 5, 2012 1:01 PM EST
in New York Yankees Analysis
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In 2007, we saw a young man with ace potential take the mound for the New York Yankees, a pitcher that was supposed to be a homegrown ace. While Hughes is no longer a potential ace, he can still be a serviceable starter with decent upside.
After enduring a tumultuous 2011, one in which we saw Hughes fail miserable to begin the season only to end it highly mediocre, how can I say that there is upside? It is tied to his velocity.
Over at The Yankee Analysts, Michael Eder found that there was a correlation between Hughes' velocity and his FIP, a metric that takes into account the only three things pitchers can entirely control: strikeouts, walks, and home runs. As Hughes' velocity rises, his FIP drops.
In 2010, Hughes averaged 92.52 mph on his fastball and had a 4.34 FIP on the season. However, in starts where he maintained higher fastball velocity than 92.52 (75 IP), he posted a 3.53 FIP.
Now, hoping for Hughes to maintain his velocity is a challenge. Hopefully, his training at Athletes Performance Institute will support Bill James' aggressive 2012 projection of him: 3.71 ERA, 3.82 FIP. Granted, his projection is only over 102 IP.
So, what are the chances we see Phil Hughes toss a successful 2012? If he posts below league average numbers in 2012, what would you do with him in 2013?
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It really is hard to tell
His early season flop really caught us by surprise and was a huge setback to the expectations i think everyone had for him.
I hope the extra training this offseason helps, but i think he also needs to work on the possibly of dealing with a fastball that only tops out in the 90-92 range. His approach may need to change to adjust to that. I would agree that Bill James’ projection seems very kind considering how he has pitched post All Star Break 2010.
If 2012 sees more of the same from Hughes, we are unfortunately facing the decision of seeing him move to the bullpen for good.
Im not sure if our pitching development is the problem with our prospects or just bad luck as was written about before, but im hopeful that this next round of pitchers coming up can offer a top 1-3 type pitcher that can stick.
That being said, Hughes may not be a young prospect any more, but he is still plenty young enough to turn it around and have a very good career.
I think a lot his problems stem from conditioning
To my knowledge he hasn’t had any significant arm injury and I’ve never heard of velocity just dropping while transitioning to the majors. I never got the sense that Hughes was that dedicated to conditioning his body. He has seemed very nonchalant at times and while he does take his pitching seriously, I’m not entirely sure he takes his health seriously. Since 2010 he has looked increasingly out of shape and unfit.
He started off great in 2010 but by the end of the season he was awful. I think a lot of his struggles that year came from being physically depleted so I never took it that seriously in the sense that it would continue to be a problem.
In 2011 he was fat. I don’t really know what he did in the offseason but it didn’t look like he was prepared to throw a baseball. He had no arm strength to help him get his velocity going and had ‘dead arm’ which he never was really able to recover from.
I think from his velocity problems he has become uncomfortable on the mound and not very confident in his stuff. This could be a reason why he abandoned his other pitches because if he has no confidence in his fastball, he probably had even less in his less proven pitches. Hughes needs a third pitch to survive and until he gains confidence in his fastball I don’t think he will have confidence in his experimental pitches.
If he trains his body right he should be able to reestablish his arm strength and hopefully boost his confidence enough to improve is repertoire. I think his troubles have been a domino effect and I think once he gets the ball rolling, everything will fall into place.
as I've said before
It would be disappointing if his struggles were due to lack of conditioning, and surprising, given that he’s played with a lot of guys whose exercise regimes and commitment to remaining in shape are legendary. My disappointment would be tempered, however, if he’s finally figured out that it takes a year-long commitment to remaining in top condition in order to be a quality major league pitcher, and maintains a killer workout regime for the rest of his career.
by long time listener on Jan 5, 2012 1:42 PM EST up reply actions
same here
I just don’t see how he could fall off a cliff like this. I mean you don’t just randomly lose velocity at 24 if you’re completely healthy and in shape. I wonder how much control the team had over him when he was in the minors and how much autonomy he gained when he came up. Perhaps he thought he could take it easy. I don’t know, but i think if he trains hard he can fix his velocity. Obviously, he’s still have to learn how to ‘pitch’ but that could make it easier for him.
I can't shake the feeling that Hughes is on the path to the bullpen
And maybe that’ll work out – it’s easier to maintain velocity in the bullpen.
by long time listener on Jan 5, 2012 1:33 PM EST reply actions
He's clearly more valuable as a starter throwing 94 mph.
Nobody has mentioned ‘dead arm syndrome,’ or whatever they call it. Is ‘dead arm’ a real phenomenon, or is just a synonym for ‘out of shape?’ Either way, he can be a dominant starter if he’s over the dead arm and/ or back in shape.
Worst case seems to be an inning at a time out of the pen, and he would still be valuable doing that. Rivera will retire, and Robertson will close. Hughes would be a useful set-up man as soon as 2013.
by designatedquitter on Jan 5, 2012 2:07 PM EST reply actions
It's real....
…but it basically translates into an overtired, overworked arm. The symptoms CAN be caused by something more serious (remember the circulatory problem they THOUGHT was the culprit?), but if it’s true “dead arm”, it’s basically that the muscles, ligaments, and tendons are so stiff, you can’t get full range of motion…and there may be inflamation that’s cutting off communication with some of the nerves in the shoulder and elbow (so your arm constantly feels like it’s asleep, or has a lack of sensation).
Trade bait
I think Phil is the guy you start dangling as trade bait, now, and going into mid season (assuming he’s quasi-effective). There are CERTAINLY clubs out there who will think (and maybe rightly so) that they can "turn him around) and will see value in him (especially considering his annual cost).
Dude really needs to find an out pitch like…yesterday. Until he gets that, I’m not even sure the rest will matter.
Jesus Montero fangirl
by WhatwouldJeterdo on Jan 5, 2012 2:15 PM EST reply actions
That's the other issue...
….to be sure.
He was effective in 2009….out of the pen.
He was effective in 2010, until fatigue AND the league caught up with him. His pitch selection didn’t change dramatically at the end of 2010. His velocity didn’t drop off a cliff after mid-season 2010 (though it did in early 2011).
I suspect the league caught on to what he could and couldn’t throw for effective strikes. Did his swing and miss and called K’s drop late in 2010? I can’t remember……but I thought it did.
that might have happened
but he was never given the opportunity to adjust so now he’s stil throwing the same old stuf, but everyone knows what he’s doing.
I can’t shake the feeling that Hughes will have a good season in 2012.
Here’s a question for those of you that actually played baseball: is it easy to be taught new pitches? For example, Hughes needs an out pitch. Could he go to another starter in the rotation and have them teach him their pitch?
Follow me on twitter @nyybrandonc
Co-Manager/Writer for Pinstripe Alley, Editor/Writer for Blueshirt Banter
"No matter what I talk about, I always get back to baseball."
"Every day is a great day for hockey."
Well I played actually, but basically as a pinch runner/pinch bunter.
Follow me on twitter @nyybrandonc
Co-Manager/Writer for Pinstripe Alley, Editor/Writer for Blueshirt Banter
"No matter what I talk about, I always get back to baseball."
"Every day is a great day for hockey."
Well I pitched an inning once, BOOM!
Was on the Oakland A’s, playing against the…New York Yankees, I think.
Fifth inning of what should have been a six inning game, get called in to pitch in heavy rain.
Walk, GIDP, HBP, popout.. Game called, we win 5-4, I get the save.
Retired on top. (Actually was never asked to pitch again likely because the other team was too intimidated by my amazing talent)
Follow me on twitter @nyybrandonc
Co-Manager/Writer for Pinstripe Alley, Editor/Writer for Blueshirt Banter
"No matter what I talk about, I always get back to baseball."
"Every day is a great day for hockey."
I pitched a lot actually
I was the 5th Inning Guy™ and eventually became notorious for flipping out on the mound when I gave up a hit or walked a guy. I would throw my hat or my glove and yell. A few times the coach had to come out and either calm me down or take me out. Once the umpire even told the coach to take me out. I was a regular John Lackey.
Oh wow! I was basically always an OF that was used to bunt and run. We had enough players where people would have to sit out, so I sat out a lot because A. I wasn’t good, B. I was the fastest, best bunter on the team. More so A. of course.
It was boring for me, but I’m probably the only little leaguer to ever hit a bunt triple and a walk off bunt in the same season!
Follow me on twitter @nyybrandonc
Co-Manager/Writer for Pinstripe Alley, Editor/Writer for Blueshirt Banter
"No matter what I talk about, I always get back to baseball."
"Every day is a great day for hockey."
nicely done
I was a first baseman because i was a lefty and i was awful at everything but standing still
Haha I never played anything other than third and OF. Had a good arm for a little leaguer. Any good at hitting?
Follow me on twitter @nyybrandonc
Co-Manager/Writer for Pinstripe Alley, Editor/Writer for Blueshirt Banter
"No matter what I talk about, I always get back to baseball."
"Every day is a great day for hockey."
fucking awful. I think I only got a handful of hits. I even used to hit the Tee in Teeball
I have a good arm now, but i don’t think i knew enough or was good enough at the time to use it to my advantage
My best friend was one of the best pitchers in the entire league. High school team wanted him to play for them when he was in 7th grade. Considering his talent compared to mine when I played against him for the first time he wouldn’t stop saying how he would strike me out.
So, I batted ninth and played left field. Hadn’t had a hit all season outside of bunt hits, was something like 0-23 or something.
First two at bats I bunted runners over because that’s basically all I did when runners were on base. Remember, I was absolutely awful at hitting. Had no timing, at the time I couldn’t see the ball but didn’t know I needed glasses, so had no idea when the ball was coming or anything.
So, third at bat we’re tied 1-1 and I’m at the plate with a runner on third, one out. Coach puts on the suicide squeeze. He throws me a fastball, I fake a bunt, pull back the bat and hit a single to left. Boom, 2-1, we win.
Will never let him forget that day. The end, I know, no one cares Barndon!
Follow me on twitter @nyybrandonc
Co-Manager/Writer for Pinstripe Alley, Editor/Writer for Blueshirt Banter
"No matter what I talk about, I always get back to baseball."
"Every day is a great day for hockey."
They should make a movie out of this!
Ironically enough i’m a freaking power hitter in whiffle ball! I have 5 Whiffle ball tools. If only I had discovered some of this talent on Atlanta Braves of little league!
Pitchers do things like that all the time
not all of them, so maybe it is difficult? I wouldn’t know, I didn’t pitch past 1-pitch Little League.
I played and pitched, but I was really low on the staff because I didn’t throw all that hard, and I was the starting shortstop already. But here’s what I got out of it.
I think it’s a lot easier to improve and work on pitches that you already know rather than learn a whole new pitch. When you’re learning a pitch, it can take a while to get used to the grip, and then be able to consistently throw the new pitch in the strike zone. And then once you learn that, you need to learn how to locate it in different parts of the zone (down, different corners, out of the zone, etc), and so on.
It’s a process and it takes a while. I think it’s easier to just take a pitch you already have and work to improve it or do some variation on it, because it’ll be faster. In Hughes’ case, he already has a nice curveball with a lot of break, but it’s not really an out pitch because it’s so loopy and slow. AJ Burnett on the other hand throws with similar velocity on his fastball, but the curve goes a lot faster with a lot sharper break, and thats why AJ gets a lot of strikeouts.
I think if Hughes wanted to add a new pitch, he should work on a variation of that curve to try and add a sharper break, rather than try and learn a whole new pitch. Thats what I’d do. Then again, I was a low-end varsity pitcher, while Phil Hughes is a former top prospect and major league starter, so learning a new pitch may be easy for him.
I'll do whatever it takes to win games, whether it's sitting on a bench waving a towel, handing a cup of water to a teammate, or hitting the game-winning shot.- Kobe Bryant
A.J. Burnett's only fan!
someone made a post a while back about Hughes and his curve
and he has two different curveballs. One that is big a loopy that no one swings at and one that is sharp and gets swing and misses. or something of that effect.
Well he should work more on that sharper one then
Because we don’t see it enough nor does he get enough swings and misses during games.
I'll do whatever it takes to win games, whether it's sitting on a bench waving a towel, handing a cup of water to a teammate, or hitting the game-winning shot.- Kobe Bryant
A.J. Burnett's only fan!
I got to say
Hughes’ pitching repertoire just screams that he should have a split finger pitch. He throws all his crap straight, what better pitch to add then a split finger? Of course he needs to work on that change, also be able to change speeds with his fastball.
Or maybe work on some movement. change grips and all that sort of crap
Last night, a comedian died in New York. Somebody knows why. Somebody knows
Someone get him and Freddy in a room together.
by MichaelGGBGrabow on Jan 6, 2012 1:25 PM EST up reply actions
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