Alex Rodriguez: How Likely is a 30-Homer Season?
by Frank Campagnola on Jan 30, 2012 7:22 PM EST
in New York Yankees Analysis
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In the history of Major League Baseball, a player at the age of 36 or older has hit thirty home runs or more just 57 times. I mention this because Alex Rodriguez will enter the 2012 season at the age of 36, and will turn 37 at the end of July.
Recently, Lord Duggan, inspired by a poll at ESPN, posted a similar poll here at Pinstripe Alley, asking users if Alex Rodriguez will hit under or over 30 home runs during the upcoming season. The results at ESPN were essentially neutral, while over two-thirds of Pinstripe Alley users, at the time I am writing this, believe he will top thirty homers.
At first glance, it doesn't seem impossible for A-Rod. Throughout his illustrious career, the megastar that is Alex Rodriguez has failed to reach thirty homers just twice since his first full season at the Major League level (1997, 2011).
However, once thought of as a shoo-in to surpass Barry Bonds as the all-time home run king, Rodriguez is now on an undeniable decline.
In order to determine the likelihood of A-Rod hitting 30 or more home runs in 2012, I complied a spread sheet of all the players who hit 30 or more home runs during the 2011 season. In addition to the list, I also took the averages and ranges of each stat.*
Here is how A-Rod measured up to the players who hit 30 homers last season in games played and power categories:
|
|
Games Played |
ISO |
SLG. |
|
A-Rod 2011 |
99 |
.185 |
.461 |
|
Minimum |
113 |
.217 |
.453 |
|
Average |
148 |
.252 |
.536 |
In the table, the 'minimum' category is the lowest number for those players who hit 30 home runs in 2011. The average category is self-explanatory.
As you can see, the average 30-home run hitter took the field 148 times last season, had an ISO of .252, and a SLG of .536. The minimum in these categories of those who hit thirty homers was 113 games played, a .217 ISO, and a .453 SLG. The only slight advantage A-Rod has here is in SLG, but even that is minimal, especially when considering the age curve for power hitters. According to the curve, power peaks around the ages of 24/25 and then drops off a cliff after the hitter turns about 28 or 29.
In the last three seasons, two of which have included major surgeries, A-Rod has managed to play an average of just 120 games per season. After undergoing those surgeries, how likely is it for his legs to hold up while also staying away from the day-to-day baseball injuries that occur over the course of a 162 game season?
Additionally, A-Rod would also need to see a power increase. Over the last four seasons, A-Rod has seen his ISO and SLG decrease in each season. His .185 ISO and his .461 SLG were each the lowest of his career since 1995, when he received just under 150 plate appearances. In order for A-Rod to be a minimum 30-homer hitter, he would need to increase his ISO by .032, a significant increase for a player entering his age 36/37 season when considering the age curve.
It is not impossible for A-Rod to hit thirty home runs in 2012. However, a lot of things would need to go right in order for him to reach that level again. He needs to stay on the field and he needs his power to return. However, given that he has had two major surgeries within the last three years, and given what we know about the way power fades throughout the course of a player's career, it seems highly unlikely for A-Rod to reach thirty home runs in 2012, and maybe even beyond.
*Stats from fangraphs.com
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I hope so
Kobe had that same surgery and has more life this year
I'd like to thank the good Lord for making me a Yankee fan.
by NJsandman on Jan 30, 2012 7:35 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
A-Rod is three years older, and they play entirely different sports. Comparing the two doesn’t make much sense
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by Frank Campagnola on Jan 30, 2012 8:06 PM EST up reply actions
Comparing the results of a surgery between two entirely different sports doesn’t raise an eyebrow for you? Of course you have to take it in context.
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by Frank Campagnola on Jan 30, 2012 9:11 PM EST up reply actions
If the surgery works that most likely correlates with a better outcome on the field.
Most likely because you can’t predict baseball.
I'll be quite content if he hits 29
"WHO WOULD LEAD?! THE CLOWN?!"
by I'mGivingYouARaise on Jan 30, 2012 7:34 PM EST reply actions
if he doesnt get hurt 30 shouldnt be too hard
by NJ Champ on Jan 30, 2012 7:55 PM EST via Android app reply actions
He hit 30 in a relatively healthy year during 2010, and then experienced a power drop again in 2011. Research on baseball history and A-Rod’s recent trends suggests that it isn’t a very proable outcome.
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by Frank Campagnola on Jan 30, 2012 8:04 PM EST up reply actions
Though it's possible (actually likely) that his power dropped in 2011 due to injury
He was an entirely different player from April-June, and July-end of the season. The first part of the year he looked like a borderline MVP candidate and was well on his way to 30+ bombs. The second part was injury plagued and frustrating, and he looked lost.
This has become a common saying with him, but if he’s healthy he’s going to produce at a high level. Remember he was playing through injury half the time he was actually in, whether a knee or a thumb or whatever else. And that will make the power drop, but it may not have so much to do with the ability of the player. The Yankees need to do whatever they can to help him stay on the field.
"I could never wear another uniform. I will always be a Yankee"- Jorge Posada
Thanks for the memories Jorge
Let’s not get carried away – he wasn’t playing like an MVP candidate. He wasn’t even the best player on the team – let alone the league. He had an .852 OPS before going on the DL.
Also, he had 13 homers through that same time period, so he wasn’t well on his way to a 30 homer season.
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by Frank Campagnola on Jan 30, 2012 9:05 PM EST up reply actions
Right. I was talking about the beginning
Through June 11th or 12th. Whatever the day he was that he injured his knee, because the power sapped after that but he still played through it for another month.
MVP candidate probably is a stretch, but that wasn’t my argument. Point was, he was on pace for 30+ homers before he tore his knee, and it’s fair to say that the tear sapped his power. Especially for a player who gets most of his power from explosiveness in his lower half like A-Rod does.
"I could never wear another uniform. I will always be a Yankee"- Jorge Posada
Thanks for the memories Jorge
You’re ignoring the point. The injuries/lack of health eliminate whatever pace he may be on. It doesn’t matter what pace he’s on for two months when there’s another four months to be played.
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by Frank Campagnola on Jan 30, 2012 9:24 PM EST up reply actions
I would think the pace before injuries would show that the power was there
Should you choose to test my resolve in this matter, you will be facing a finality beyond your comprehension, and you will not be counting days, or months, or years, but milleniums in a place with no doors.
by YankeesJets on Jan 30, 2012 10:08 PM EST up reply actions
In April? After 69 at bats?
His OPS dropped to .837 by the end of May.
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by Frank Campagnola on Jan 30, 2012 11:49 PM EST up reply actions
but your argument wasn’t about injury, it was about natural power drop off and I don’t think its fair to show an injury plagued season as a clear indicator that he is falling off a cliff. Of course he’s declining, but not at the rate your article seems to suggest. If he is healthy, and that is a big if, he will probably be just as productive as he was before the injury. Will he hit 30? who knows, but his 2011 final numbers are not indicators of where his talent lies.
Similar arguments showed conclusively how Jeter was in decline as of 2010 and should perhaps not even be our starting shortstop anymore. Couldn’t hit anymore. Overmatched. Geriatric. Then in 2011 he very nearly hit .300 again despite missing some time due to injury. (I’m supporting you, jetnumba2.)
Bottom line: Age matters; but health matters a lot more.
However, a lot of things would need to go right in order for him to reach that level again. He needs to stay on the field and he needs his power to return.
That’s from my conclusion. My argument included both age and injury.
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by Frank Campagnola on Jan 31, 2012 1:11 PM EST up reply actions
sure, your conclusion mentioned it, but you primarily wrote about natural decline. I’m not saying you’re wrong, but i think its a little unfair to hold his numbers up to natural declination when that wasn’t really his problem last year.
In the last three seasons, two of which have included major surgeries, A-Rod has managed to play an average of just 120 games per season. After undergoing those surgeries, how likely is it for his legs to hold up while also staying away from the day-to-day baseball injuries that occur over the course of a 162 game season?
There’s more about injury from the article. If you’re saying I ignored injury, I have to wonder if you even read the piece.
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by Frank Campagnola on Jan 31, 2012 7:32 PM EST up reply actions
I did
and your main point was that a 36 year old historically sucks more than a 35 year old. Which is not wrong. But that’s not really the problem A-Rod is having. I believe he can stay productive but the injuries are what hamper him, considering he came out and said that the knee injury sapped him of his power.
You throw out this pretty graph, but who really cares about that? How can you compare A-Rod’s injury shortened and power-reduced season to that of fully healthy players (or not as seriously injured). I think a graph depicting the amount of players that hit 30+ home runs over the age of ‘x’ would have been more appropriate. Again, i’m not saying you’re necessarily wrong, but I think your article focused on the wrong variables. This is drifting into semantics and I really don’t want to have an argument about that.
The table was to show how much he would need to improve in order to reach the 30 homer mark. Also, the table depicts that most 30 homer hitters are healthy and A-Rod has not been.
Additionally, you say that decline in production is not his problem, yet I point out in the article that his power production has dropped off four years running. And since his production has dropped four years in a row, and you admit that players get worse as they age, than I don’t really see what you’re getting at.
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by Frank Campagnola on Jan 31, 2012 10:54 PM EST up reply actions
Also, what other variables do you think I should have paid attention to? Declining power and lack of health seem like two pretty good places to start.
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by Frank Campagnola on Jan 31, 2012 10:55 PM EST up reply actions
I think where you may have a flaw is
comparing a season (regardless of his age) in which he only played 99 games due to knee surgery and missing almost two months of play with other players who were healthy and played full seasons without injury or surgery.
I know you set a minimum for 113 games played, which A-Rod didn’t even meet, but how can you really compare an injured player with the “average” 30 HR hitter? We don’t even know how much of the season was affected by the injury prior to the surgery.
Also, in 2010, when A-Rod “only” played in 137 games, he still hit 30 HR and had 120 RBI (before and after suffering a calf injury) .
I understand that the knee issue may impact his ability to hit in the future, but his other major injury was his sprained thumb, which was from backhanding a play at third base. Certainly not an age-related injury.
The point of the table is to show what the average 30-homer player looked like in 2011, and what the minimum 30-homer might look like if I took the lowest stat in each category.
In doing so, this allowed me to see how much A-Rod would need to improve to reach the 30-homer level type of player.
I don’t think comparing his last season to 30 homer players is a flaw, because the chart depicts that 30-homer players are generally very healthy, something A-Rod has undeniably had difficulty with over the last three seasons.
He may have hit 30 homers in 2010, but it took him more games to reach 30 homers in 2010 than in 2009 and he still experienced a power drop off from 2009 (lower ISO, SLG) – something I expect to continue happening because of the ISO curve I linked to.
The knee issue is one injury I was referring to, but I wasn’t referring to the thumb as a major injury. I was referring to the hip surgery from 2009 that almost cost him his career.
Take whatever I wrote as you may, I’m not saying what I did was flawless. I just tried to be objective, look into baseball history and use some research to come up with some sort of conclusion – a conclusion that I think is perfectly reasonable.
In order for him to get back to hitting 30 homers again, he needs to get on the field a lot, especially if his power continues to drop like it has been over the last four seasons. Coupled with two major surgeries on his lower half and age related power drop off that is simply unavoidable because let’s face it, players just get old, it doesn’t seem likely to me.
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by Frank Campagnola on Feb 1, 2012 2:48 PM EST up reply actions
Fair enough
We all seem to agree that in order for A-Rod to provide any production (especially improved production over 2011), he needs to play a lot more games and not be on the DL for more than 2 weeks at the most.
If he can play (either 3B or DH) in at least 140 games, do you think it’s likely he produces 30 HR and 100 RBI again?
I think 140 games is a big if, but if he does play that many, I think he’d be in a good position to do so if he adds about .03-.04 to his ISO off of last season.
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by Frank Campagnola on Feb 2, 2012 12:46 PM EST up reply actions
I didn’t think he was that healthy in 2010. He hasn’t been healthy since 2009… and even then, probably wasn’t at peak health. I suspect not everything has been reported to the public, but don’t have any inside info, either. It’s just a combination of gut feeling and how he looked when he played, plus offhand comments here and there.
Hope I’m right AND that he has better health this season! If so, I put him at 35 home runs and playing in 140-150 games overall.
would be nice, and i would love for you to be right.. but i truly think that there is no way a 36 year old will play 150 games… at a premium position.. maybe if he was a left fielder
"Performance comes from work and dedication, belief and strength. Words and excuses get you nowhere." -Jason Heyward, Atlanta Braves Rightfielder
Im guessing he will hit between 20-28 homers this year if he has a healthier season with at least 130 Games played. I also think he will have a slightly higher batting average next year as well.
"Performance comes from work and dedication, belief and strength. Words and excuses get you nowhere." -Jason Heyward, Atlanta Braves Rightfielder
Nothing in his past suggests to me that he can't do it again if he's healthy
Obviously he needs to get his health in order and thats been an issue for him the last few years. And I fully expect him to end on the DL for 15 days for some kind of nagging injury that old centaurs get at some point during the season.
However, every time A-Rod has been healthy he’s produced. 2010 was a relatively healthy year, and he managed to get to 30. 2009 was healthy (kind of) after the surgery, and he managed to get to 30. And he was healthy in the first three months of 2011 and he looked as good in that period as we’ve seen since his 2008-2009 level.
When he gets hurt and tries to play through it, it’s going to affect his power. When he doesn’t play at all, he’s not going to hit home runs. But from what I can tell, every time he’s had a relatively healthy year, he’s hit 30+ home runs. Nothing suggests to me as of yet that the ability of the player has declined to the point where it’s unlikely he’ll do it, as you seem to believe.
I understand what you’re getting at and how you’re comparing him to other aging sluggers, but I’m going to give A-Rod the benefit of the doubt here. He’s done it 13 years in a row and the only year he didn’t was the year he played 99 games, half of them hurt. If he gets back to playing 125-135 games in 2012, I think he still has the ability to reach it. Again, thats an if. I won’t be surprised if he gets hurt too much and doesn’t play in enough games to reach it. I will be surprised if he plays 130+ games and doesn’t reach it.
"I could never wear another uniform. I will always be a Yankee"- Jorge Posada
Thanks for the memories Jorge
And when I say nothing in his past
I’m talking about his play when he’s feeling right. Not playing through nagging injuries like the second half of 2011.
"I could never wear another uniform. I will always be a Yankee"- Jorge Posada
Thanks for the memories Jorge
You can’t cherry pick when he’s “feeling right” and when he’s not.
Yes, he needs to get his health in order. That is quite obvious. But as I stated, after two serious surgeries and in his age 36/37 season, the likelihood of getting his health in order is slim.
Not every time he has been healthy has he produced. He was healthy in 2010, and his production still dropped off from 2009. Also, like I said above, he was healthy in the early parts of 2011, but his production wasn’t nearly as good as you’re making it out to be.
Of course when he gets hurt it is going to affect his power. That’s the point. Part of the reason he is losing production yearly is that he has had major difficulty staying healthy.
Nothing suggests to you? So nothing I showed above, such as the age curves, his continually declining production, and his declining health suggest nothing?
I’m not comparing him to aging sluggers, I compared his production to all the hitters who hit 30 homers in 2011 regardless of their age.
Why are you giving him the benefit of the doubt here? Nothing you have said contradicts anything that I stated in the article – outside of you saying things like “I think…”
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by Frank Campagnola on Jan 30, 2012 9:21 PM EST up reply actions
Why am I giving him the benefit of the doubt?
Because every time he’s played in over 100 games, he’s hit 30 or more home runs. Every-single-time. And I said if. If he plays in 125-235 games he’s going to produce. The only time in his past that he hasn’t reached 30 home runs is when he hasn’t played enough, and when he has played he plays hurt. And you can even argue that in 2009 and 2010 he was playing hurt all year and he still made it to 30.
I’m not denying that he’s in the decline and I’m not going to speculate on his health. I’m trying to separate his health and his ability to hit. I’m just not sure whether you’re saying he doesn’t have the ability to hit 30 home runs again, or he can’t stay healthy enough to. If you think he can’t stay healthy enough to, then feel free. You may be right. But if you think his abilities have declined to the point where he’s not capable of doing it if he plays in enough games, that I disagree with.
"I could never wear another uniform. I will always be a Yankee"- Jorge Posada
Thanks for the memories Jorge
Because every time he’s played in over 100 games, he’s hit 30 or more home runs. Every-single-time.
Wrong, he didn’t do it in 1997. And Lol, nice cherry pick seeing as he played 99 games last season…
Why do you continually ignore the fact that his power production has noticeably dropped off every season since 2007? Even when he was healthy in 2010, it still dropped off.
You’re also ignoring my points about the age curves, and his ISO has been declining along the same line as the curve. There’s a pretty good correlation there.
I think it’s a combination of both. He needs his power to come back and his health to come back to do it.
Like I said in the article, his ISO was .032 points lower than the minimum ISO for players with 30 homers. That is a significant increase in power for an aging slugger to overcome.
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by Frank Campagnola on Jan 30, 2012 9:34 PM EST up reply actions
Yea I ignored 1997 (just an outlier to me), and yes I know he only played 99 games in 2011
And if he played 100, then I would have said “in all seasons he played 101 games or more”.
I realize it’s dropped off. I’m not denying that. I don’t think it’s dropped off to the point where he’s not capable of hitting 30 home runs anymore. I’m not expecting him to hit 50+ home runs and win an MVP again (but if he could, I’d really appreciate it).
He’s obviously had difficulty staying healthy. But like I said, if he’s healthy it will be a lot easier for him to regain that power to at least get him to 2010 levels. I’m not predicting he’ll hit over 30 homers because I’m not sure he can stay healthy enough and avoid nagging injuries. Thats just something we’ll have to wait and see for.
My predictions for him are .280/.350/.490 with the home runs depending completely on the number of games he plays in. Is that a fair prediction?
"I could never wear another uniform. I will always be a Yankee"- Jorge Posada
Thanks for the memories Jorge
I think .450-.460 SLG would be more accurate.
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by Frank Campagnola on Jan 30, 2012 10:10 PM EST up reply actions
I think it’s pretty fair to give one of the best players in baseball history the benefit of the doubt when talking about his ability to bounce back.
by MichaelGGBGrabow on Jan 31, 2012 1:12 PM EST up reply actions
If he hadn’t had two major surgeries in the last three years and experienced power decline in the last four – and there wasn’t research suggesting that he’s just going to continue losing more power – I’d agree with you.
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by Frank Campagnola on Jan 31, 2012 1:14 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
What about Romine!?
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I think it’s like 50/50 for 30 homers. Sounds like im taking the easy route on this one but I really feel it’s that close. If i had to take a guess on the number of homers out of nowhere it’d really be like 29 or 30. I don’t know what he’s going to do obviously but it jsut feels like the most likely range to me. I’ll pick 30 on the dot.
Not saying ARod will remain healthy but I wouldnt put it past him to have a great 2012
This guy can be called lots of things but lazy isnt one of them. As hard as this guy works, I have a feeling he will hit 30 once again in 12.
Should you choose to test my resolve in this matter, you will be facing a finality beyond your comprehension, and you will not be counting days, or months, or years, but milleniums in a place with no doors.
I say he hits 26
Batting .280/.340 in 130 games. Yes, I just made those numbers up on the spot.
I know where I come from, and when you always have in mind where you come from the rest will be easy. I think the rest will be easy.
-- M. Rivera
I say we make this interesting...
TAKING ALLLLLLLLLLLL BETS!
"WHO WOULD LEAD?! THE CLOWN?!"
by I'mGivingYouARaise on Jan 30, 2012 11:28 PM EST reply actions
I'm taking the over
This list is pretty interesting while the site ranks A-Rod pretty high.
by Scooby Snacks on Jan 31, 2012 12:06 PM EST up reply actions
I don't care
I would rather A-Rod stay slim like he was at the start of last season, play a good 3b, hit for average, use all fields, and take walks, rather than bulk back up and swing for the fences. If he does those things he’ll drive in 100+ runs and we’ll have the best offense in baseball. We have enough HRs in our lineup.
Wait, I just realized....
If he doesn’t, isn’t that a good thing? HR’s are bad!
"WHO WOULD LEAD?! THE CLOWN?!"
by I'mGivingYouARaise on Jan 30, 2012 11:59 PM EST reply actions
Unfortunately A-Rod is 36 and with age....
Comes a drop off…can he hit 30 homers again? Yes possibly anything is possible IF the cards are played right… But is it likely, i dont think so… i think your looking for 20-28 Dingers in a semi healthy season of an aging 3b… And honestly I would take that, cause even with that he is still in the top half if not 10 3b in the league even with Miguel Cabrera moving back there.
"Performance comes from work and dedication, belief and strength. Words and excuses get you nowhere." -Jason Heyward, Atlanta Braves Rightfielder
Pretty much this.
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by Frank Campagnola on Jan 31, 2012 1:10 PM EST up reply actions
26 is the New 30!
You never know what your history is going to be like until long after you're gone.
Bottom line
is pretty simple with Alex and every other baseball player athlete: as one gets older, the margin for error healthwise decreases. A younger player can find a way to perform well despite various injuries, but an older player has a harder time doing that. The older player needs to get and remain healthy to perform at a high level BUT if he can do that, he absolutely CAN perform at such a level. The key is getting healthy, and staying healthy over the course of a full season.
If Alex can get and stay healthy for the entire 2012 season, he’s going to do just fine.
2
"Fans, for the past two weeks you have been reading about a bad break I got. Yet today, I consider myself the luckiest man on the face of the earth."
"There is no room in baseball for discrimination. It is our national pastime and a game for all." - Henry Louis "Lou" Gehrig
I'd say a health risk is sizable, 25 -75% guesses sound reasonable
but aside from continuing knee pain or a broken hip, I am not convinced his power is gone. He’s gotten heavier, aged, in a healthy way, it looks to me. Thicker, rather than overstuffed.
His batspeed must maybe be some diminished from his youth, but his contact failures were especially on low outside sliders, I’m thinking due to the knee. I don’t remember especially awkward swings on changeups or inside two seamers. His timing, his plan of attack, looked pretty good, he just got that low outside slider weakness after the knee got hurt.
As long as he can make contact, he’ll find plenty of mistakes.
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