What To Make Of Anaheim's Spending Splurge
by Travis G on Jan 3, 2012 11:00 AM EST
in New York Yankees Analysis
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PrintIf you spent the past month in a cave, you may have missed the Anaheim Angels' two note-worthy free agent signings: 1B Albert Pujols, who they've promised $250M over the next decade, and LHP C.J. Wilson, who will earn $77.5M over the next five seasons.
Anaheim should have worries though. Pujols,* one of the great hitters of this era, had the worst season of his career this year, racking up only (a relative term) 5.4 WAR at the age of 31. He could very well be declining. His WAR has dropped each of the last three seasons. Was 2011 part of most player's natural, early-30s decline, or was it just an off-year? Anaheim gambled a lot of money that it was merely an off-year. (At least A-Rod's moronic contract was awarded after a career year.) Don't get me wrong, a 150 OPS+ is still excellent, but it's not what we've gotten used to from Pujols in slightly less recent memory.
As for Wilson, he has a lot of question marks as well. The biggest of which is how he'll cope, long term, with workloads imposed on starting pitchers. He's been a starter for all of two seasons! That's right, he made 252 relief appearances, from 2005-09, before entering the Texas rotation in 2010. I guess there are two ways to look at that, though: 1) Cynically, he hasn't shown long term viability as a SP, or 2) optimistically, his body hasn't been burdened by starting, so he should stay healthy for a long while. In fairness, he wasn't given much of a chance to show he could be a SP before the age of 29, despite 70 of his 94 MiL appearances being starts (ahem, sound familiar?).
With the Yankees trying to get their payroll down to $189M by 2014, and with Anaheim's on the rise every year since 2005, will they challenge the Yanks as a perennial powerhouse in the near future?
Going back a few years, the Yanks spent more than $400M in the '08-'09 offseason on three players: CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Mark Teixeira. So debate this question today - which is/was a better investment: the Angels in '11-'12, or the Bombers in '08-'09?
* I learned there was a Kengshill Pujols that played in the Dodgers' organization in the mid-2000s.
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Can't really answer
until after a few seasons. If the Angels flop despite these signings, then it becomes a colossal failure. With the AJ signing, it’ll be tough to top the stupidity of the Yankees’ front office.
Romine!
"Both are equally reckless and stupid"
but I think that the Angels paying two players more than 3/4 of what the Yankees paid for three players makes them a loser in this question.
The biggest difference, to me, is the fact that CC, AJ, and Teixiera were signed to complement a pretty strong existing team. It doesn’t seem as though the Angels are merely adding two complementary players to a strong lineup and rotation (though their rotation is very good and even better with CJ). Will Albert Pujols be enough of a difference-maker in the lineup to help the team improve to win the Division or a Wild Card spot, then win throughout the playoffs and World Series?
CC and Tex were complements?
CC was added to be the ace of a rotation that really needed one (and it’s a position he has filled admirably). Tex filled a definite need at 1st, though I guess how complementary you consider him to be is based on how well you expected Swisher to otherwise fill in at 1B
In the Angels’ case, Wilson is definitely a complement to their starting rotation, and even better for them, takes away the best pitcher from their biggest division competitor. Pujols? That remains to be seen
Not sure which is necessarily worse, though at this point the Yankees can at least say they got a title out of their deals. Overpaying is part of the deal with free agents, it seems, so you take the good with the bad
I think he means that Tex complemented the Yankees' starting lineup (which was already very good)
Anaheim’s starting lineup is not as good as the Yankees’ (IMO), so they are expecting much more from Pujols.
The Yankees were 7th in the AL in runs scored in 2008
And their starting 1b and RF, arguably their 2nd and 3rd best hitters were old free agents. So I would disagree that Tex, or another major offensive threat, was a luxury.
by Let's Talk About Tex Baby on Jan 3, 2012 12:22 PM EST up reply actions
Is this a reply to
Dr. Copp or pastor2b?
Teixiera wasn’t a luxury, by any means, except in the context of Swisher’s signing (which may have always been a backup plan in case they didn’t sign Teix). Either way, they needed to replace Giambi’s offense (and improve the defense at the position).
if you look at it from the view of filing gaps
Yankees NEEDED a 1b after 08 and they NEEDED an ace to cement the rotation. The Angels werent even closer to needing a 1B before they got Pujols, and jetanumba2 stated below, their rotation is already rock solid without dropping #1 starter money. The signing overall might help them, but the money was spent stupidly
My biggest problem with the signings
is that neither were actual necessities. Sure, every team can always use more pitching, but with rotation of Weaver, Haren and Santana already there, spending Ace™ money for a new middle of the rotation pitcher isn’t exactly a good way to allocate resources.
Sure, every team wants to sign the best player in baseball, but when he fills a position that is already a logjam and then on top of that you have to pay him record breaking money across a full decade of his declining year and that sounds like a pretty stupid idea by year 4.
The Angels still have an old outfield and still have a mediocre left side of the infield. None of their actual needs entering the offseason were really met. They didn’t sign someone like Aramis Ramirez and neither Morales of Trumbo can move over to third. Now they have an overloaded roster full of young out of place talent (Morales, Trumbo) and washed up overpaid roster spots (Hunter, Wells, Abreu). If they can flip any of the expensive guys for something useful then maybe they can handle this correctly (in the mindset of right now) but if not then they have a packed roster that is sucking up payroll and not in a good way.
Conversely The Yankees' spending was out of necessity
after a year that saw their Ace go down and their top prospects blow it, the team needed someone to lead them and compete with the likes of Boston’s rotation and others. After Giambi left, the Yankees had no first baseman so they got the best one that would be on the open market fr the next few years. AJ Burnett wasn’t as much of a necessity, so that might have been careless spending and while the rest were definitely expensive, at least they were filling a much needed role.
maybe they can get Pujols to play left field again
they’ll realize their issues when setting their opening day lineup:
Alright lets see center field… Wells???? hes still on the team? DAMN
What about RF? wait ABREU is still here too?!?!
exactly
they needed to move people even before the Pujols signing. Now they’re basically forcing it to be the younger players
“The Angels still have an old outfield and still have a mediocre left side of the infield. None of their actual needs entering the offseason were really met. They didn’t sign someone like Aramis Ramirez and neither Morales of Trumbo can move over to third”
I’m under the impression TrumbO moving to third is possible.
Also, they have Trout and Bourjos as young OF
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by Brandon C. on Jan 3, 2012 8:40 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I heard that Trumbo can't play third
and they would have to move some of the Wells/Hunter/Abreu old man trifecta in order to make room. Who is going to want any of those things?
Abreu can get takers
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by Brandon C. on Jan 4, 2012 3:06 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Who is going to want Abreu?
The team would have to need a DH and the Angels would have to pick up most of his contract. The thing is, they can still get something useful from trading Trumbo/Morales so they might go down that avenue instead. I expect one of the old guys and one of the young guys to be moved.
I think this thing about the Angels just being a washed up overpaid roster is a little overblown. I think the Angels are in a terrific spot going into the future, regardless of the signings of Pujols and Wilson. They had two Rookie of the Year candidates this past season(Walden-throws gas, touches 102mph and Trumbo). They have the #1 prospect in baseball(for now) who will be a contributor, in Mike Trout. They also have a GREAT young defensive outfielder in Peter Bourjos. He and Trout are two of the most athletic young outfielders in the game, that I think in the coming years will show power along with that speed. They’ll have the best defensive OF for the next 5-10 years if they hang on to the two of em. Log jams aren’t the worst things in the world. Can Trumbo play 3rd, not sure. If Morales comes back he’ll have to. Things don’t have to always be perfect. Are there too many guys at some positions, definitely. But I think that’s an O.K. problem to have, especially with that rotation.
Ignoring the fact that all of these sports contracts are just insane...
Time will tell who got the most bling for their buck. Yankees got their bling immediately following their spending spree but there were a few factors at play:
1) As phonty noted, Yankees were added complimentary pieces to an already established roster that just needed a few holes plugged
2) CC was and still is a perenial CY Young candidate with a proven track record
3) Tex, while no Pujols, was a huge upgrade over Giambi offensively and defensively, while the Angels already have a few good 1B they are replacing. Even with his terrible offensive years, his defense alone has improved the entire infield
4) AJ, while posting some horrific numbers, HAS been an innings eater and a durable one at that (glass half full perspective)
5) Their contracts weren’t backloaded
Time will tell for sure, but at least Yankees no longer owe the title of most ridiculous contract given to a 30+ year old player. Thank you Angels.
Unfortunately the Tex signing might also end up being a mistake if he doesn't improve
However, after winning the WS in 2009, only a Burnett-like performance could make Tex look like a mistake (even though he could end up being a bigger one than Burnett)
Based on some quotes from Teix,
he’s definitely trying to improve his hitting (to all fields) and hopefully that means he’ll stay far away from being a “mistake” signing.
I dunno if i read it here or somewhere else
but i think i heard he lost around 20 pounds so far, so maybe we are looking at Swisher 2.0, which would be awesome.
With his defense alone though it would take a lot for me to consider him a mistake signing. Yea his numbers have been the worst of his career, but 39 HRs is 39 HRs.
Factor is his terrible (read career worst) BABIP in 10 and 11, and there is no reason to think why Tex cant put together a solid .280 / .380 / .500 season, 40 HRs, 100+ RBIs.
Of course i could be wishing thinking as well, but i try to be optomistic
Hopefully...
…losing that weight will keep him stronger and healthier and help avoid the brutal finishes of the last 2 years.
It’s pretty plain to see that he’s fallen in love with the short porch and has gotten too pull-happy as a left-handed hitter, which probably accounts for the low BABIP the last 2 years. Trying to pull pitches away tends to lead to weak grounders and pop-ups.
The fact that his numbers have remained pretty much the same from the right side suggests that the problem is with his approach/mechanics and not due to a loss of bat speed or another form of physical decay, which is a good sign.
by Let's Talk About Tex Baby on Jan 3, 2012 12:30 PM EST up reply actions
don't underestimate
the productivity from Burnett. He’s not Barry Zito, buying posh dinners for the kids in A ball on his 47th rehab stint.
The above comment is not affiliated with the San Francisco Giants, is not based on a secret source of team information, and may contain personal opinion.
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by natteringnabob on Jan 3, 2012 1:31 PM EST up reply actions
true
say what you will about his numbers, but at least he has the passion to be upset by his performance, strive to work to get better, and been taking care of his health. He hasnt been a cop out like Pavano or just completely failed like Zito.
Call me a sucker for rooting for the struggling players, but as much as you can love watching a Jeter, Pujols, Sabathia, Verlander, i always look forward to seeing redemption for players following a down year or two.
the unfortunate thing is that he had a pretty solid season going for him
but then he had like the worst 2 months ever and his stats look like crap
One month really
August was probably the single worst month I have ever seen by a starting pitcher. But the rest of the season was mid-rotation starter worthy.
He needs to eliminate those horrific stretches this year.
I'll do whatever it takes to win games, whether it's sitting on a bench waving a towel, handing a cup of water to a teammate, or hitting the game-winning shot.- Kobe Bryant
A.J. Burnett's only fan!
You think the Angels dropping all that money when on players they didn’t need was better than the Yankees spending on players they DID need?
"Don't you think it's strange that you'll make more money than President Hoover this year?"
"Why not? I had a better year than he did." - G.H. Ruth
They bettered their rotation and got Albert Pujols
to take the place of some guy named Trumbo and did it for almost $100 million less. I chose both were stupid, but my point is that the Angels certainly didn’t make worse deals than the Yankees. Burnett’s contract alone was “stupider” than what the Angels have done.
Romine!
Ok...let's try this again
It’s the classic win now, worry about the future in the future approach that the Yankees have been using with varying degrees of success for the last umpteen years. Do Pujols and Wilson make the Angels a much better team and a far more viable World Series contender in 2012? Yes. Will they rue the day they signed these contracts in a few years? Yes.
I voted for the 2009 Yankees as the better use of money for a couple reasons. C.C. and Teixeira were both 29 at the time of the signings, rather than 32 as Pujols and Wilson are. That’s 3 extra prime to near prime years the Yankees were buying for each player. Second, as mentioned above, the Yankees were filling gaping holes, while the Angels already had depth at 1b and a good rotation. Also, for the Teixeira contract, the Yankees were already spending a ton on 1b, so its not like they were taking the money away from another part of the team. They basically just replaced Giambi with a better, younger player.
If it was just CC and Tex vs. Pujols and Wilson I’d take the Yankees in a heartbeat, but AJ was the worst player out of the five at the time of the signing, so that decision makes it a lot closer.
The one thing that separates these contracts from the A-Rod contract, is they were all market value contracts. There were other teams offering similar money for all five of these players, with the possible exception of C.C., whose agents were able to convince the Yankees that he needed a premium and an opt out clause to play in New York. Based on how C.C.‘s acted here, pretty much from day one, I’m thinking that was a pretty clever ruse.
I still believe the Yankees were bidding against themselves for A-Rod, and that they probably could have kept him for close to $100 mil less in total value, although the contract the Angels gave Pujols does make me wonder. If they were willing to go 10-254 for 32-year-old Pujols, maybe they would have done the same for 32-year-old A-Rod.
by Let's Talk About Tex Baby on Jan 3, 2012 12:16 PM EST reply actions
The thing about the A-Rod signing
was that at the time, no one was in a position to compete with the Yankees anyway, so why not try for the lowest possible deal first? At the time the only teams with the payroll to afford him were the Yankees, Red Sox and the Cubs. Teams with this much money is pretty much a new thing from the last few years.
Too Early
The yankees won a world series on the strength of these signings. Let’s wait and see how the Angels do.
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by yankees97 on Jan 3, 2012 1:01 PM EST via mobile reply actions
did not realize that
I suppose that could help but when one player will make 1/12 of that total deal it is still a nice chunk taken out of their profit stream. It will lessen the blow of an old Pujols but on a strictly baseball front it will look terrible.
After signing CC, Tex & AJ, the Yankees won the WS in 2009...
I know this because I own the DVD they put out and still watch it occasionally. Had they not made those signings, that DVD would not exist and I would be sad. So far, the Yankees are ahead of the Angels.
CJ was always weird to me
Most pitchers that aren’t able to make it as a starter, are thrown into the pen and are tested there. CJ was really not very good in the pen from what I remember. I watched him a lot and seemed like he blew plenty of games. Then he gets thrown in there as a starter and he does rather well, weird to me.
Yeah it's definitely a reversal from the norm
My guess would be he was trying to blow it past everyone as a reliever, whereas when he became a starter, he was forced to concentrate on mixing pitches and using his fielders more. I really have no idea since I didn’t see him much.
by Let's Talk About Tex Baby on Jan 3, 2012 3:41 PM EST up reply actions
The Yankees won a World Series as a result of those signings
The Angels so far have done shit. Time will tell, but right now I’d say the Yankees made a better use of their money, because they addressed major needs with their signings and each one of them was a major contributer in helping this team win a title.
We’ll see how it looks in 5 years, but right now I’m saying the Yankees.
I'll do whatever it takes to win games, whether it's sitting on a bench waving a towel, handing a cup of water to a teammate, or hitting the game-winning shot.- Kobe Bryant
A.J. Burnett's only fan!
The point was
It’s not fair to even consider that the Angels money was better spent than the Yankees at this time, because all they’ve done is hand out the money. The players haven’t done anything. The players the Yankees gave the money to have performed all performed to a certain extent and helped them win a world series.
Thats also why I said “we’ll see how it looks in 5 years”. It’s just not really a question you can answer right now.
I'll do whatever it takes to win games, whether it's sitting on a bench waving a towel, handing a cup of water to a teammate, or hitting the game-winning shot.- Kobe Bryant
A.J. Burnett's only fan!
yikes
The Red Sox have announced the signings of minor league free agents Carlos Silva, Brandon Duckworth, Charlie Haeger, Will Inman, Doug Mathis, Tony Pena Jr., Chorye Spoone, Jesse Carlson, Rich Hill, Justin Thomas, Pedro Ciriaco, and Nate Spears.
Based solely on the information that was available at the time, the Yankees clearly made the better group of the signings for the following reasons:
1.) CJ Wilson just turned 31 and Albert Pujols will turn 32 in about two weeks, whereas both CC Sabathia and Tex were 28 when the Yankees signed them. If you’re going to sign somebody to a long contract and can get 3-4 seasons of their prime or near prime years included in it, you’re obviously going to be in better shape over the long haul. Look at it this way, when Tex’s current contract expires, he’ll be just 36; When Pujols is 36, he’ll have 5 years left on his contract.
2.) Tex, Sabathia, and AJ Burnett were coming off the best seasons of their careers when the Yankees signed them, while Pujols is coming off his worst by far. CJ Wilson is obviously the wild card since he has such a short track record as a starter that it’s foolish to talk best/worst at this point.
Jesus Montero has to be a full-time catcher, or the Yankees have to trade him. One or the other. Based on the age and contracts of the other players on this team, that's the only place he fits long-term on the Yankees roster.
We signed those 3
and they brought us a title……. and no salary cap so I think we spent better money unless ANA wins one of their own.
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