Random A.J. Burnett Thoughts
by Frank Campagnola on Jan 26, 2012 11:00 AM EST
in New York Yankees Analysis
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PrintMy feelings on A.J. Burnett have been well documented here. I have spoken about how I expect him continue to regress and there's no hiding from that. However, just roll with me on this one. I'm not sure what made me reconsider my feelings on him, but for whatever reason, I decided to take a further, more objective look. Anyway...
Can A.J. Burnett have success in 2012?
The answer to the question in short is, quite frankly, anything is possible. A.J. Burnett has had plenty of success in his career, and rightfully so. He throws hard and his curveball is outstanding. His command has always been his Achilles' Heel, and it will continue to be as he enters his age-35 season. There's no denying that.
At 35, he's a long way away from the days of his dominance during his age-25 season when he led the National League in shutouts (and wild pitches, of course) while tossing over 200 innings.
With the new rotation beginning to take shape, and assuming there are no further personnel changes, it seems like A.J. Burnett will battle Phil Hughes and Freddy Garcia for the fifth spot in the rotation.
But does he deserve the spot outright?
A.J. has been, to put it bluntly, puzzling and frustrating over the last few years. Scanning his peripherals makes me question why his results were so poor last season, especially since some of his peripherals were quite strong.
While Burnett's GB% has increased since he landed in the Bronx, his HR/9 and HR/FB% have also increased. I cannot logically come to a conclusion to make sense of this. In plain English, Burnett has gotten more ground balls while giving up more home runs.
Maybe this has to do with age. He's 35, he's losing velocity, and he's losing the bite on his curveball. A look at his PitchFx confirms this. Maybe the lack of velocity and lack of bite means he isn't getting away with the mistakes he used to get away with. But still, shouldn't more ground balls equal less home runs?
Other peripherals, such as xFIP, seemed to like Burnett. Burnett's xFIP in 2011 was a solid 3.86 and xFIP does have the highest correlation with future predictions of ERA. However, believing in it says you believe his HR rate will regress to the mean.
There's a lot to like about A.J. Burnett. He throws hard and misses bats. However, he walks a lot of people and gives up a lot of home runs. The walks will always be there, but home run rates are nearly impossible to predict from year-to-year. He could, seemingly, improve in that category, because of how very unstable home run rates are.
So, maybe A.J. can be good. It really depends on what you put your faith in. Prior to 2010, Burnett had an above average ERA+ for six straight seasons. He misses a lot of bats. He gets a lot of ground balls. That's a decent recipe for success.
However, his last two years have been terrible, and nothing about the aging curves of power pitchers provides optimism, especially when they are two-pitch pitchers that desperately need to integrate a changeup more often.
But maybe, just maybe, if A.J. can keep his 2011 peripherals in tact while bringing his massive HR rate down - I know these are big ifs and maybes - he can have a successful 2012. Figuring out the likelihood of those if and maybes are far beyond my capabilities.
I guess this puts my stance on A.J. up in the air, but after taking further looks into his numbers, it wouldn't surprise me as much as it would have yesterday to see him have a successful 2012.
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1st in line
AJ has to be the first in line to get the number 5 spot in the rotation. If at the very least to showcase his early season success. This adding to his very low trade value. He has performed well in the first month/6 weeks of the season over his time in NY. Also he may take this spot and run with it, since his job is on the line. I would much rather see the spot go th Phil but that just seem like it’s gonna happen.
I Bleed Yankee Blue...
by donniebaseball23 on Jan 26, 2012 11:28 AM EST reply actions
So you’d rather see a 35 year old who has next to no chance of being on this team after 2013 than a 25 year old who was brought up through their system and is under team control for a while?
by MichaelGGBGrabow on Jan 26, 2012 12:28 PM EST up reply actions
No, 2013
Contributing writer for Pinstripe Alley.
Follow me on Twitter @frankiecamp48
by Frank Campagnola on Jan 26, 2012 12:51 PM EST up reply actions
Still, that puts him at being on the team as long as AJ is under contract for
so the prior argument is less valid.
Fair enough, but my overall point was “You would rather have AJ than Phil?” I can’t understand that.
by MichaelGGBGrabow on Jan 26, 2012 1:14 PM EST up reply actions
Did you watch Phil last year?
Phil has the better upside but with all his injury concerns, I use him in the bullpen and in spot starts. If someone is hurt or ineffective, Phil is next in line.
Should you choose to test my resolve in this matter, you will be facing a finality beyond your comprehension, and you will not be counting days, or months, or years, but milleniums in a place with no doors.
He isn’t needed in the bullpen and you can’t stay streched out if you’ve been moved to that role.
by MichaelGGBGrabow on Jan 26, 2012 3:13 PM EST up reply actions
If you read the last line in my comment you would see that I wrote “I would much rather see the spot go to Phil.”
I Bleed Yankee Blue...
by donniebaseball23 on Jan 26, 2012 2:56 PM EST up reply actions
Ha, I very clearly misread that last line
by MichaelGGBGrabow on Jan 26, 2012 3:12 PM EST up reply actions
I agree! AJ is going to have a great year...
as long as we’re averaging 10 or 12 runs a game when he pitches.
But I’d still give him the early nod for the 5th slot and hope he does well enough so I could trade his sorry ass and get someone or something useful. AJ just can’t be counted on for a full season anymore.
typical AJ outing (except in august b/c he was constantly terrible)… look strong early, giving up maybe a run or two through 5 and then walk two guys and boom, 3 run HR.
You forgot...
Don’t forget that the guys he walks steal the next base because he doesn’t hold them on or throws a wild pitch. This, in turn, allows the other team to bean our guys and wears our catcher out chasing all his wild pitches.
trade Burnett
Trade him with $23 million to anyone who’ll take him. He’s due $33 million the next 2 years and if he has another awful year, and he will not at age 35 get any better, then the Yanks will be in the hole for the entire $33 million. He’ll have to be released when he fails in 2012. Get out now.
This,
He can’t handle the big leagues. Demote him to the NL, where he’s still a #4.
Most arguments are really about context.
by SheaWasBettor21 on Jan 26, 2012 11:34 AM EST up reply actions
Trade him to Willing Partners
As you stated..anything’s possible,but it’s not likely that Burnett’s gonna get any better,at least not in New York! He’s got a history of “eccentric” behavior and he’s pretty Burned-out by the whole N.Y.pressure cooker. Knowing there are problems and challanges in moving him ,if I were Cashman i’d: Try to trade with Theo Epstien of the Cubbies for Alfonso Sorriano-Similar contracts,both clubs DYING to get rid of their guy and Sorriano is a Yankee Veteran who can still hit! AJ could pitch for a big market team trying to rebuild and work under a lot less pressure.Hiis chances of success in Chitown are a lot better than in NYC.
Second choice scenerio:work out a deal with the KC Royals for Billy Butler..He;s young,in mid-contract and would love to DH for a contender.Burnett would throw a lot fewer Homers at Kaufmann where the pressure would be turned way down. The Yanks stand to loose money on Burnett no matter what,but at least there’s some gain in these deals. Cashman could make either one happen!
Pinstripelifer
by Pinstripelifer on Jan 26, 2012 11:34 AM EST reply actions
He's a headcase
"I could never wear another uniform. I will always be a Yankee"- Jorge Posada
Thanks for the memories Jorge
IIRC
soriano has one more year on his deal than AJ. If that’s the case, I’d rather just keep AJ – he has a higher ceiling at this point imo
The artful muppet formerly known as KrmtDfrog.
Please read my sardonic wit and over-blown sense of self over at headkicklegend.com
by Cory Braiterman on Jan 26, 2012 12:10 PM EST up reply actions
TEH CRAZY
"Fans, for the past two weeks you have been reading about a bad break I got. Yet today, I consider myself the luckiest man on the face of the earth."
"There is no room in baseball for discrimination. It is our national pastime and a game for all." - Henry Louis "Lou" Gehrig
'Willing Partners' sounds like a wife- swap club. Still, I would do it for a reasonably priced bat.
If AJ Burnett isn’t traded, and it’s hard to see a favorable trade given his salary, he’s in the rotation. That’s just the way it is.
by designatedquitter on Jan 26, 2012 1:32 PM EST up reply actions
Rather see a trade for minor leaguers
The biggest liability about Burnett is he’s taking a place on our 25 man roster. I’d rather see us get a couple of minor league potential fielders (which right now we could use in our system).
+1 Trade him and cash for peace of mind
Even if you do not get much
Bring lawyers, guns and money to get me out of this one! Stand in the Fire.
If his GB% and HR% are going up
it must mean he’s not only striking out less (his K/9 has been below his career average) and it means that players are getting more contact off of him. His H/9 has also gone up so he’s giving up even more base runners making that increase in home runs even more painful when there are more people on base (his LOB% has been low too)
He K’d over 8 per nine last season and that was a ~1.2 K/9 increase over 2010.
Contributing writer for Pinstripe Alley.
Follow me on Twitter @frankiecamp48
by Frank Campagnola on Jan 26, 2012 12:31 PM EST up reply actions
I think that leaves fly outs. Does his total number of fly balls induced change much from season to season?
Usqueadbaugham! Anam muck an dhoul ! Did ye drink me doornail?
by Q-TDSK on Jan 26, 2012 12:57 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
*total fly ball rate
Usqueadbaugham! Anam muck an dhoul ! Did ye drink me doornail?
by Q-TDSK on Jan 26, 2012 1:06 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I meant from before he was a Yankee
I was looking at his entire time here and it’s lower than it was when he was a Jay
We'll see if he gets a chance
But after listening to Cashman talk on Francesa yesterday, he sounds really confident that Phil is going to win 15+ games this year. Whether thats just to build up his trade value, or if he actually truly expects him to be a lock in the rotation, we’ll just have to wait and see.
"I could never wear another uniform. I will always be a Yankee"- Jorge Posada
Thanks for the memories Jorge
I can’t see the Yankees #2 SP from last year starting in AAA unless he is god awful in spring training.
It's that the world is basically a forced labor camp from which the workers, perfectly innocent, are led forth by lottery, a few each day, to be executed.
I don't think that's just the way I see it. I think that's the way it is. Are there alternative views? Yes. Will any of them stand close scrutiny? No.
by memitim on Jan 26, 2012 4:40 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I've seen the Yankees
do stranger things. Unless they trade AJ or Hughes or Nova, I don’t see how both Hughes and Nova are in the rotation at the start of the season.
I don’t see the Yankees putting AJ in the bullpen and I’d be surprised if anyone would trade anything for him. As often seems to happen, the ones with actual minor league options are often the ones that have to wait. They even sent Nova down to AAA after the all star break last season so Hughes could have a try at starting again (or was it so they could put him back on the 25-man roster).
I think in Cashman’s eyes, the way he has been talking, the fifth starter is Hughes’ job to lose. AJ is going to have to take it from him, contract or not.
It's that the world is basically a forced labor camp from which the workers, perfectly innocent, are led forth by lottery, a few each day, to be executed.
I don't think that's just the way I see it. I think that's the way it is. Are there alternative views? Yes. Will any of them stand close scrutiny? No.
by memitim on Jan 26, 2012 5:47 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I can't find anything
where Cashman has said the 5th spot is Hughes’ to lose (especially nothing since a November interview, well before the acquisitions of Pineda and Kuroda.
Ideally
CC-Pineda-Kuroda-Nova-Burnett. If AJ’s really be reigned under control like his post-gimping by Rothschild says he will be, that’s probably the strongest top 5 in the game, or at least if Pineda gets better and Kuroda is as consistent as he was in LA.
As for Freddy Garcia I don’t care if he’s not even on the team. And as for Hughes I think he’ll be in teh pen or traded, at least to start the year, unfortunately. Either that or somehow AJ gets traded, how that happens I have no idea or even want it to happen.
Also there’s the part of Joba coming back eventually. Hughes could just hold the fort of the ridiculously annoying “6th inning role” while the rotation sorts itself out. Especially since the first month of the season you barely even use the 5th starter, let alone 6.
Last night, a comedian died in New York. Somebody knows why. Somebody knows
I can agree with all of this
Should you choose to test my resolve in this matter, you will be facing a finality beyond your comprehension, and you will not be counting days, or months, or years, but milleniums in a place with no doors.
AJ
Trade AJ and Swish for Bulter,eat some $$ of his contract and sign Oswalt as ins. in cs. Garcia/Hughes falter.
Yeah
Let's do that
"Fans, for the past two weeks you have been reading about a bad break I got. Yet today, I consider myself the luckiest man on the face of the earth."
"There is no room in baseball for discrimination. It is our national pastime and a game for all." - Henry Louis "Lou" Gehrig
we're trying to get rid of pitchers
Not outfielders.
by long time listener on Jan 26, 2012 12:59 PM EST up reply actions
I'll drag my sack when I want thanks
Last night, a comedian died in New York. Somebody knows why. Somebody knows
just don't drag it to Notre Dame
by long time listener on Jan 26, 2012 7:25 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
You already posted this in another thread and didn’t reply to the questions that were raised.
by MichaelGGBGrabow on Jan 26, 2012 1:16 PM EST up reply actions
Shh
Don’t hurt his feelings.
"Fans, for the past two weeks you have been reading about a bad break I got. Yet today, I consider myself the luckiest man on the face of the earth."
"There is no room in baseball for discrimination. It is our national pastime and a game for all." - Henry Louis "Lou" Gehrig
The Yankees are looking to reduce overall salary, not increase it. Butler isn't cheap.
As the Red Sox found out last year, a team with 7 starters probably doesn’t have enough. While it’s possible to get through a season with only, five, it’s more likely that at least a couple will go down for a protracted period. The Yankees have already seen this with Wang, Chamberlain, Hughes- in fact just about everyone except CC and AJ. Assuming it won’t happen again is not realistic.
Sending Nova to AAA again is just cruel and unusual punishment. He was 16-4 last year, in case you forgot. If he wins 20, you would send him to AA, I guess.
by designatedquitter on Jan 26, 2012 1:37 PM EST up reply actions
I’m sure KC is tripping over themselves to give up Butler for AJ.
It's that the world is basically a forced labor camp from which the workers, perfectly innocent, are led forth by lottery, a few each day, to be executed.
I don't think that's just the way I see it. I think that's the way it is. Are there alternative views? Yes. Will any of them stand close scrutiny? No.
by memitim on Jan 26, 2012 3:32 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Have Burnett DH
Follow me on twitter @nyybrandonc
Co-Manager/Writer for Pinstripe Alley, Editor/Writer for Blueshirt Banter
by Brandon C. on Jan 26, 2012 1:39 PM EST via mobile reply actions
He pinch run once last year
Did an admirable job I must say.
"I could never wear another uniform. I will always be a Yankee"- Jorge Posada
Thanks for the memories Jorge
pinch ran*
"I could never wear another uniform. I will always be a Yankee"- Jorge Posada
Thanks for the memories Jorge
I am all for Burnett being the 5th starter
I’d prefer the rotation to be 1.CC 2.Kuroda 3.Pineda 4.Nova 5. Burnett. Garcia should just pitch in AAA as injury depth and Hughes should be the SU man until Joba comes back because I haven’t been a fan of Robertson since he came up. Burnett has gotten a lot of flak for underperforming but (while I haven’t been too high on him) I always believed he could do better than what he has been. I dont think he’ll ever come close to winning a Cy Young award but I think that, with the run support the Yankees give their pitchers (like when Nova won 16 or Hughes won 15 games or so. They both should’ve been around 11-13) Burnett should win 10-13 games which isn’t bad as a 5th starter. #1-#3 pitcher, that’s not good enough, but it’s better than what most teams get out of their 5th guy. Also, Hughes has shown success in the pen; Burnett won’t have as easy of a transition. But all that matters is that we make the playoffs, in which case, we wouldn’t even use a 5th starter. But regardless of who wins the job, this season’s lookin good
GTFO
I haven’t been a fan of Robertson since he came up
by jetanumba2 on Jan 26, 2012 1:56 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
+1000
If you come to a fork in the road, take it!
- Yogi Berra
by In The Big Inning on Jan 26, 2012 9:19 PM EST up reply actions
x
"I could never wear another uniform. I will always be a Yankee"- Jorge Posada
Thanks for the memories Jorge
can't quantify everything with #s
stats, %s and peripherals are nice, but over the long haul one thing rings true with AJ: he is a mental midget on the mound. The talent is there, what lacks is between the ears.
Skip Bayless
"I could never wear another uniform. I will always be a Yankee"- Jorge Posada
Thanks for the memories Jorge
lol
Most arguments are really about context.
by SheaWasBettor21 on Jan 26, 2012 2:11 PM EST up reply actions
He walked too many people that one time.
Jesus Montero fangirl
by WhatwouldJeterdo on Jan 26, 2012 4:38 PM EST up reply actions
Goes the dynamite!
MLB Trade Rumors @mlbtraderumors
Yankees, Boone Logan Avoid Arbitration bit.ly/wR0wRP #mlb
"WHO WOULD LEAD?! THE CLOWN?!"
by I'mGivingYouARaise on Jan 26, 2012 4:09 PM EST reply actions
glad to see that Logan's run continues
by long time listener on Jan 26, 2012 4:48 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
nice!
If you come to a fork in the road, take it!
- Yogi Berra
by In The Big Inning on Jan 26, 2012 9:20 PM EST up reply actions
Aren't there any
cash strapped clubs out there? Pirates? Astros? Oakland? Anyone? If the Yankees are willing to pick up a big chunk of his salary, so it seems, you’d think they’d be looking for a cheap innings eater for some AA prospects or a decent utility player or a lefty hitter to compliment Jones or just a bag of BP balls?
this is inevitably what they HAVE to do...
I don’t think cash has given up on Hughes… He needs to start. He has nothing left to prove in AAA and pitching out of the bullpen creates the same “streching out” problem he’s had before. The guy needs innings. Freddy Garcia is his backup plan, and a pretty darn good one at that if Hughes fails.
Either way we’re stuck with Burnett’s salary. We might as well pay it (or most of it) and get some player(s) in return to help us out later. I’d be willing to pay his whole salary if it means we get a better return in the deal… If we don’t trade him we have to pay him anyways, and still have Hughes/Garcia in the fold.
I wouldn't be surprised if Hughes or Nova are traded
I’m not saying it will happen, but I wouldn’t be surprised. I’d actually be more surprised if they manage to trade AJ.
Trading Nova wouldn’t be an awful idea.
Follow me on twitter @nyybrandonc
Co-Manager/Writer for Pinstripe Alley, Editor/Writer for Blueshirt Banter
I would hate it
But, as I’ve said before, it would not surprise my paranoid mind one bit if they thought they were selling high on him. Remember, they projected him as a back-end kind of guy, and this past year had to be a pleasant surprise. Leave it to the Yankees front office to outsmart themselves trying to outsmart a trade partner.
Trading Nova for what? He won’t hit his first year of arbitration eligibility until 2014 and he’d still be ridiculously cheap. If they’re truly serious about that, trading Nova is really stupid unless they get back a Dom Brown.
Contributing writer for Pinstripe Alley.
Follow me on Twitter @frankiecamp48
by Frank Campagnola on Jan 28, 2012 1:21 AM EST up reply actions
keep Nova
keeping Nova with Pineda with the possibility of one of the young guns in the minors is the dream.
Nova deserves more
Imagining the Yanks with a young potent staff is a dream. We can always get bats for $$$. Not young arms
Variance
Also, pitchers are so volatile, you have to ride em when they’re hot. Nova is hot.
Most arguments are really about context.
by SheaWasBettor21 on Jan 27, 2012 12:01 AM EST up reply actions
like Yogi said
Baseball is 90% mental, the other half is physical.
90% of AJ’s issues have been mental. He’s never been able to cope with the pressures of playing in New York. It’s a vicious cycle. He pitches. He sucks. He gets raked over the coals in the press. He puts pressure on himself. He sucks more. That’s why he was better in Toronto, where they don’t pay too much attention to sports not involving a puck.
And the physical half is only going to decline with age. Even if, by some miracle, he finally gets it together mentally, he probably has two or three good years left, tops.
Hughes, on the other hand, is still young. If he can get it together, we can get some mileage out of him.
As far as AJ goes, I’ll miss the pies, but not much else.
If you come to a fork in the road, take it!
- Yogi Berra
by In The Big Inning on Jan 26, 2012 9:38 PM EST reply actions
Don't care if it's been said yet
Aj will match up well against other 5 hole starters. He should never have gone against number 2s
by bacciagaloop on Jan 26, 2012 10:44 PM EST via Android app reply actions
He's not gonna be going against #5s, or at least not after the season starts
He’ll just be going after whoever happens to be pitching. Odds are, he’ll face the other team’s ace as often as he’ll face their 5th starter
He needs to be facing the National League.
Most arguments are really about context.
by SheaWasBettor21 on Jan 27, 2012 1:25 AM EST up reply actions
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