The Yankees' Fifth Starter Question

The saying is that you can never have too much pitching, but it seems as though the Yankees are testing that theory with their surplus of starting pitchers with no clear and easy decision. After a few off season acquisitions, a rotation that didn't look so strong on paper before got a makeover and looks better now. CC Sabathia, Michael Pineda, Hiroki Kuroda, and Ivan Nova SHOULD be locks for the rotation, while Freddy Garcia, A.J. Burnett, and Phil Hughes battle it out for the last remaining spot. Knowing baseball as most of us do, it rarely works out that neatly. Last season, Freddy Garcia and Bartolo Colon had a competition in name only during spring training. Colon outperformed Garcia, but Garcia was given the spot in the rotation due to concerns about how quickly he could warm up, which would still be a concern if he were to be left to pitch out of the bullpen this season. Here is an in depth look at the options, a few scenarios, and a poll.

Freddy Garcia:

2011 Stats: 146.2 IP - 3.62 ERA - 4.12 FIP - 4.36 xFIP - 5.89 K/9 - 2.76 BB/9 - 0.98 HR/9 - 2.2 fWAR

Despite a heavy dose of smoke and mirrors, Freddy Garcia did pretty much everything you could have hoped for in 2011. Of the 3 viable options, Garcia is definitely the one who deserves the spot if it was based purely on last year's results. It would be irresponsible to assume no regression for Garcia going forward, but as a 5th starter, expectations wouldn't need to be extraordinarily high. Something even close to what he did last year would be a luxury at the back of the rotation. When the Yankees resigned Garcia this off season, they hadn't yet signed Hiroki Kuroda or traded for Michael Pineda, so the picture is much different now than it was when he was promised a starting spot. Assuming nothing has changed with his physical capabilties, the concerns about how long it would take him to warm up in the bullpen will still be there, making the option of keeping him around as depth more difficult. Garcia can be traded with his permission at some point (or without it starting in June), or simply cut because of his relatively low salary, but he is capable of eating innings if healthy, and there is certainly value in that.

A.J. Burnett:

2011 Stats: 190.1 IP - 5.15 ERA - 4.77 FIP - 3.86 xFIP - 8.18 K/9 - 3.92 BB/9 - 1.47 HR/9 - 1.5 fWAR

Oh, A.J. Burnett. It would be hard to ignore that he turned in an inspired performance against the Tigers in the 2011 ALDS, but it would be equally hard, if not harder, to ignore the disaster that was August for Burnett. His HR/9 has been climbing each year for the past three and he's certainly not young enough to lend confidence toward a huge resurgence. Unless your name is nyyrocks29, few people have the patience/eternal optimism to expect much better for A.J. in 2012. With 2 years and no insignificant amount of money left on Burnett's contract, Brian Cashman isn't having the easiest time trying to find a trade partner willing to take on the player and even a fraction of the money owed. It would be easy and maybe even smart to bet that if A.J. is on the team, he will be in the starting rotation, due in large part to the contract he signed. Should he be traded if the opportunity arises? Most likely, but if that isn't possible, perhaps he could also be alright as someone who can pitch a good amount of innings at the back of the rotation. I'd be surprised to see him moved this season, but stranger things have happened, and if the Yankees are willing to pay nearly everything owed to him, I'm sure someone out there could use a pitcher capable of eating innings.

Phil Hughes:

2011 Stats: 74.2 IP - 5.79 ERA - 4.85 FIP - 4.90 xFIP - 5.67 K/9 - 3.25 BB/9 - 1.08 HR/9 - 0.7 fWAR

The 2011 season was completely disappointing for Phil Hughes. A lot of people expected great things from him after his infamous 18 win season the year prior, despite heavily trailing off after the 2010 All Star Game. Being as young as Hughes is, there is certainly reason to be more optimistic about him than the other 2 guys in this equation. If his dead arm is gone and he can recapture the magic of pre-ASG 2010, Hughes would be a force at the back of the rotation this season. Aside from an out pitch, which he has needed desperately for the longest time, Phil Hughes needs to be responsible. Reporting to spring training out of shape and not pitching during the off season likely had a hand in his disastrous 2011, and that's pretty unacceptable. He's not a rookie anymore, so he needs to really get himself together at this point. Brian Cashman has said that he is exploring trades to fill the empty spot at DH, and plans to use some of the team's excess pitchers to do so. I wouldn't be shocked to see Hughes' name come up, but I would also hate to see the Yankees give up on him and trade him while his value is at rock bottom. On the other hand, I'm sure plenty of people are itching to send Hughes to the bullpen. Everyone knows that he dominates AAA, and if he isn't in the rotation or traded, the bullpen is really the only place for him as depth. I don't know if that is Hughes' destiny, though some people certainly assume that it is. I think this season is too early to decide that and it should only be done as an absolute last resort right now, because I'm not convinced we'd ever see him as a starter again.

If it were up to me, I would wait and see how spring training goes without prior decisions being made, unless a decent trade comes up between now and then. I'd certainly prefer Hughes to be impressive and win the job, but Garcia isn't a bad second choice if he can come close to replicating what he did last season. However, knowing the Yankees as I do, I wouldn't be all that surprised to see them call it a competition, but already have their minds pretty made up about who they plan to give the job to. I don't think that really benefits anyone, but such is life. We know how these things go.

WWJD's Best Case Scenario: Hughes is great in spring training. Rotation is some combination of Sabathia, Kuroda, Pineda, Nova, and Hughes.

WWJD's Worst Case Scenario: Hughes, Garcia, and Burnett are awful in spring training. Rotation is some combination of Sabathia, Kuroda, Pineda, Burnett, and Garcia. Nova is ridiculously sent to start the season in AAA and Hughes is sent to the bullpen, never to be heard from as a starter again.

I'm really interested in what other people consider the best and worst case scenarios for the rotation. Either way, this seems to be the very definition of a First World Problem for the Yankees.