Cashman's Blueprint: Read It and Weep Redsox Fans
by jdg4660 on Jan 18, 2012 8:41 PM EST
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PrintIf you want to understand why Cashman traded Montero, you have to understand his grand vision. You also have to understand his constraints.
Brian Cashman has gained much greater control of the Yankees, but he still has contracts that he didn't want but must deal with. Those are the A-Rod contract and the Jeter contract. Compare those deals to the deals he cut with Andy Pettitte his last few years in Pinstripes. Pettitte got one year deals with make-good clauses. Those were the kinds of deals that other GMs have to make. Cashman, however, wants to make those deals. He wants to make them because he wants to be known as more than a GM of a big market team.
Cashman is also going to have to face a level of constraint that will greatly level the playing field: the aggressive new luxury tax in 2014. Now the A-Rod contract looks really bad. The $189mm cap ownership wants him to comply with is really a $159mm cap, once you account for the waste the A-Rod contract will be at that point. Sure, A-Rod might bounce back and hit 40 homers again. But will anyone be surprised to see him struggle? Will anyone be surprised to see him spend months on the DL? He'll turn 39 years old in the 2014 season. If he's still playing, there will have to be lots of time at DH by then.
Because of these constraints, Cashman can't afford so many AJ Burnett mistakes anymore. And pitchers are the most unpredictable investment. Wang, Pavano, Key Agawa, Kevin Brown, Javier Vasquez. Those contracts would have gotten most GMs fired. But Cashman won't have that luxury any more.
So that's the challenge. Fortunately for Yankee fans, Cashman has answers. Lots of answers.
More after the jump.
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Cashman knows the Yankees are stacked with talent in the minors at catcher. Many are saying Sanchez is a better hitter at this stage than Montero was. Plus there is Romine, JR Murphy and Greg Bird. All look like starters, with Sanchez having a chance for real greatness. So the Yankees don't need Montero to catch. Plus, no one really thinks Montero will ever be a great defensive catcher. No one is saying that Gary Sanchez can't be a great defensive catcher, however. He has work to do but he has all the tools.
So trade Montero and a back of the rotation type (Noesi) for not one but two pitching studs, both with top of the rotation potential. One is ready now for that role and the other should be in two or three years.
Right now, the Yankees have a future rotation with six young pitchers that could be number 1s or 2s on many MLB teams: Nova (and anyone who thinks he's going to be traded is crazy), Banuelos, Betances, Pineda, Campos and oh yeah, and Phil Hughes, former 18 game winner. And that's not counting guys like Bryan Mitchell, Adam Warren, DJ Mitchell, or Jose Ramirez, all of whom could be starters who eat innings.
Will all of those guys make it? No. But enough will. Others can be traded for other low-cost pieces.
Plus, the Yankees are starting to stack up position talent. Raval Santana, Slade Heathcoat, and Mason Williams are tools guys who could be the starting outfield by 2014. They won't be, most likely. But they could be. The Yanks have serious depth at second base, too. Plus, Dante Bichette looks like the guy who will take over for A-Rod.
They need to find Jeter's replacement. And maybe that will be Cito Culver or Edwardo Nunez or Claudio Custodio. Or maybe Cashman will package some of his pitching depth or catching depth to landing an elite young shortstop. The point is, Cashman has what he never had before: a minor league system with outstanding talent that will help keep the payroll down and ensure the Yankees reload without missing a beat.
Redsox schmedsox.
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Wang was good for a couple years
but I cringed harder and harder as I kept reading the names of those failed pitchers…. add Jared Wright to that mix too.
I don't. He has no place in the OF of Gardner/Granderson/Swisher.
Gardner is the best defensive outfielder in the game, gets on base, and is a base-stealing machine.
Granderson was probably the Yankees MVP last year.
Swisher has been an on-base machine and posted a .267/.368/.486 triple slash with 98 doubles and 81 homers in his three years here while playing a serviceable RF.
"Don't you think it's strange that you'll make more money than President Hoover this year?"
"Why not? I had a better year than he did." - G.H. Ruth
Probably not
But in hindsight that was still a horrible trade. They lost their starting CF at the time and a top pitching prospect and in return, got an inconsistent LOOGY. It made some sense at the time, but definitely not one of Cashman’s better deals.
I'll do whatever it takes to win games, whether it's sitting on a bench waving a towel, handing a cup of water to a teammate, or hitting the game-winning shot.- Kobe Bryant
A.J. Burnett's only fan!
They lost their starting CF at the time and a top pitching prospect and in return, got an inconsistent LOOGY.
They traded for Curtis Granderson so losing Melky didn’t matter, and besides, they essentially replaced one bad LOOGY for another in Phil Coke and Boone Logan.
And you’re ignoring the Javy Vazquez part, where he had a 143 ERA+ and a 2.77 FIP in the year prior to the Yanks reacquiring him.
Contributing writer for Pinstripe Alley.
Follow me on Twitter @frankiecamp48
by Frank Campagnola on Jan 19, 2012 7:05 PM EST up reply actions
Which is why I said it made sense at the time
I remember supporting the deal when it happened because I thought Javy would be good. He wasn’t and he was gone after 2010, so the only guy they still have from that deal is Logan.
I don’t miss Melky. I was just saying he was a starter at the time, probably in LF if they’d already acquired Granderson by then.
I'll do whatever it takes to win games, whether it's sitting on a bench waving a towel, handing a cup of water to a teammate, or hitting the game-winning shot.- Kobe Bryant
A.J. Burnett's only fan!
I don't miss Melky but....
I think when we see Arodys Vizcaino pitch a full season in Atlanta this year we’ll realize how awful that Vazquez trade was.
by Let's Talk About Tex Baby on Jan 19, 2012 8:29 AM EST up reply actions
They're using him as a reliever!
I don’t understand why they haven’t started unloading some of those starters, They can’t have 8 and hold onto them all
Yu Darvish?
Cuz they're all the same right?
Yes, that is Mike Marra.
by TheRealSlimShady on Jan 19, 2012 5:54 PM EST up reply actions
The key is spending on elite talent and developing role players from within
You need great players to win. To get or keep these players you need to overpay. This is where overpaying isn’t the end of the world. It’s a high-risk, high-reward situation and it’s a necessity.
There’s a fine line, of course, between overpaying and bidding against yourself. The Yankees paid Teixeira and C.C. what they needed to pay them for them to sign here. With A-Rod, on the other hand they paid him probably $100 mil more than what it would have taken to sign him. With Jeter, they paid him more than double his market value. Sure, he deserved to be well compensated for his 3,000th hit last year, which was a financial boom for the team, but he shouldn’t have been guaranteed 4 years.
Where you really get in trouble is when you pay big for non-elite or past-prime players. This is what the Yankees did with pitchers for most of the 2000’s. This is what they need to avoid in the future.
Look at our current players who are approaching free agency. Robinson Cano – gotta pay him whatever it takes to keep him. But Nick Swisher? I’d offer him a Michael Cuddyer-type contract right now, but if he has a good year in 2012 and is looking for 15 mil per, it’s time to say goodbye. Curtis Granderson? Elite year in 2011, but he’ll be approaching his age 33 season when he hits free agency. How long can he play a serviceable centerfield? I’d say 2013 should be his last year as a Yankee.
by Let's Talk About Tex Baby on Jan 19, 2012 8:45 AM EST reply actions
The poll only allows one vote. I wanted to cast 3. Or 2, maybe not for Pindeda.
Young players = reasonable payroll. Players over 30 = high, locked- in payroll. It’s that simple.
At this point, I would say Cashman has done about as much with this roster as possible. I think the 2012 Yankees as presently constituted will pitch better and hit worse than last year’s team. I don’t see any position player about whom I can say 2012 will certainly be a stronger season. Marginal improvements from Gardner, a more consistent Jeter, 10 more games from ARod, and a bit more from Nunez are all possible, but I don’t see more runs being in the cards.
If the 2014 payroll is going to be under $189m, then some of the young pitchers and catchers will have to be on the roster. Jeter will retire or take a big cut. Swisher will have to go. Same for Russell Martin. Burnett gone for sure. That would do it, and that is almost certainly Cashman’s plan.
by designatedquitter on Jan 19, 2012 9:28 AM EST reply actions
Tex
I think we can expect a better year from Tex. If he can keep the driver in his bag and start using the 3-wood to spray more base hits and beat the shift, he can easily be a .300/30 hitter. There is no reason why a gifted athlete like that needs to be a one-dimensional hitter.
The 2014 goal will take a lot of contributions from young players
The Yankees currently have $81.5 mil committed to 4 players in 2014. ARod (28 mil), C.C. (23 mil), Tex (22.5 mil) and Jeter (8 mil).
They have 4 more players from the current roster who will be in their arbitration years. Brett Gardner will be in his final year of arbitration. I’ll guess 8 mil for him. Michael Pineda will be in his first year of arbitration. I’ll say 5 mil. Ivan Nova will be in his first year of arbitration. I’ll say 3.5 mil. David Robertson will be in his final year of arbitration. If he’s the Yankees’ closer, I’ll say 8 mil. That’s another 24.5 mil for those 3 players.
Robinson Cano is a free agent after 2013. I’m going to assume that the Yankees re-sign him. I think they’ll work the contract in a way that his 2014 salary isn’t ridiculous, but I still think it’ll be in the 18 mil range.
That’s 124 mil for 9 players. That leaves us 65 mil to find ourselves 2 starting outfielders, a DH or 3rd baseman, depending on how A-Rod looks, an entire bench, 2 starting pitchers and 6 relief pitchers. The more positions we’re able to fill with league-minimum guys, the more likely it is we can afford another star.
by Let's Talk About Tex Baby on Jan 19, 2012 9:49 AM EST up reply actions
Oh, and a starting catcher
by Let's Talk About Tex Baby on Jan 19, 2012 9:50 AM EST up reply actions
I think some of your arbitration guesses are on the low side, but generally we agree.
I think the catching duties will be shared by some of the talent now in the minors, whether it’s Sanchez, Romine(!) or someone else.
by designatedquitter on Jan 19, 2012 2:12 PM EST up reply actions
Red Sox Fans are already weeping
Have you read “Over the Monster” lately? They want to put Cherington in a gorilla suit.
They’re Jonesing big time for Oswalt since we got Kuroda. And the Crawford contract is starting to show a strong resemblance to Alfonso Soriano’s.
It's still nice to hear them weep.
Although it was also fun hearing them predict that the 2011 crew would be more dominant than the ’27 Yankees.
by designatedquitter on Jan 19, 2012 2:14 PM EST up reply actions
Arod’s salary dips below 30mm starting this year
by MichaelGGBGrabow on Jan 19, 2012 3:27 PM EST reply actions
One quibble: I haven't seen a single source that has said that Sanchez is a better hitter at this stage than Montero was
Much less “many.” I’m not saying that there isn’t someone saying it, but I’d love to see a link to something other than another fan posting on a blog somewhere.
I haven’t seen a single source that has said that Sanchez is a better hitter at this stage than Montero was
That’s because he’s not. At the same age (19) they both played a full season in Charleston. Montero hit .326/.376/.491 (142 wRC+) while Sanchez hit .256/.335/.485 (121 wRC+). The season after, Montero really took off, lighting up both Tampa and Trenton.
Sanchez has been impressive with the bat and does important things well (draws walks, hits for power) but has a long ways to go to catch up with Montero.
No, Sanchez only just turned 19. He played all of 2011 as an 18 year old.
Contributing writer for Pinstripe Alley.
Follow me on Twitter @frankiecamp48
by Frank Campagnola on Jan 19, 2012 7:08 PM EST up reply actions
Scratch this. They were both 18 in Charleston, not 19.
Contributing writer for Pinstripe Alley.
Follow me on Twitter @frankiecamp48
by Frank Campagnola on Jan 19, 2012 7:14 PM EST up reply actions
played
At 19, which Sanchez is right now and what Montero was after his 2008 season, they had both completed a full season at Charleston with the results that I said. 100% of my points stand.
No, they were 18 when they played their seasons, not 19.
Contributing writer for Pinstripe Alley.
Follow me on Twitter @frankiecamp48
by Frank Campagnola on Jan 19, 2012 9:02 PM EST up reply actions
At the same age (19) they both played a full season in Charleston.
Holy shit dude. Gary Sanchez is 19 years old. He last played in Charleston. When Montero was the exact same age, he had also just completed a season in Charleston. I think you should pointlessly nitpick some more.
When discussing prospects it makes a difference. Saying someone put up numbers at 18 in the Sally League and 19 in the Sally League are two different things.
Gary Sanchez is 19 years old, but he turned 19 in December. He competed in the Sally League as an 18 year old the entire season.
Contributing writer for Pinstripe Alley.
Follow me on Twitter @frankiecamp48
by Frank Campagnola on Jan 19, 2012 9:24 PM EST up reply actions
He’s saying they were both 18. How are you not understanding this?
Jesus Montero fangirl
by WhatwouldJeterdo on Jan 19, 2012 9:30 PM EST up reply actions
At the same age (19) they both played a full season in Charleston.
No, he’s not.
Contributing writer for Pinstripe Alley.
Follow me on Twitter @frankiecamp48
by Frank Campagnola on Jan 19, 2012 9:32 PM EST up reply actions
At 19 they had both played a full season at Charleston. It’s the same exact thing he’s saying repeatedly.
Jesus Montero fangirl
by WhatwouldJeterdo on Jan 19, 2012 9:35 PM EST up reply actions
Don’t bother. Apparently I needed to explicitly state that at some point in the past 19 year olds used to be 18 years old in order to comply with the rules “when discussing prospects.”
At least you know now, I guess.
Jesus Montero fangirl
by WhatwouldJeterdo on Jan 19, 2012 9:49 PM EST up reply actions
The post I was replying to said “at this stage” so I gave Sanchez’s current age. I didn’t mean to upset your royal prospecting highness.
Lol. Is it really necessary to be so condescending?
Contributing writer for Pinstripe Alley.
Follow me on Twitter @frankiecamp48
by Frank Campagnola on Jan 19, 2012 9:34 PM EST up reply actions
Well, you’re nitpicking my post with an asinine quibble and then acting like you are authoritative with the official way to discuss prospects. So yeah, it is.
it
I'll do whatever it takes to win games, whether it's sitting on a bench waving a towel, handing a cup of water to a teammate, or hitting the game-winning shot.- Kobe Bryant
A.J. Burnett's only fan!
Hey, if it helps you sleep at night. And if that’s authoritative, then you have a bizarre concept of authority.
Contributing writer for Pinstripe Alley.
Follow me on Twitter @frankiecamp48
by Frank Campagnola on Jan 19, 2012 9:38 PM EST up reply actions
So Sanchez was younger at the same level with a higher BB% and a higher ISO. It’s pretty conceivable as to why someone would say Sanchez may be more advanced when comparing the two careers. Montero had far more contact ability, though. Sanchez K’d nearly twice as much.
Contributing writer for Pinstripe Alley.
Follow me on Twitter @frankiecamp48
by Frank Campagnola on Jan 19, 2012 7:12 PM EST up reply actions
you might want to check out PinstripePlus
It’s a paid subscription so I can’t share a link but it goes beyond the statistics in their analysis of players. If you want to just go by stats, Sanchez hit 17 home runs and had 52 RBIs in 82 games. Montero hit the same number at that age but in a over 500 at bats. Montero had the higher average. Time will tell but Sanchez looks like a future all-star, a guy who could lead the league in home runs from the catcher’s position.
Galveston Dave
I went to bed last night
And AJ Burnett got traded. Then I woke up;
by bleedsyankeeblue on Jan 20, 2012 6:30 AM EST reply actions
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