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Best Yankee 'folds'

So I play poker once a week, and some of the guys and I will often joke that a good fold is better than a good win. Sometimes I think of baseball deals in the same way. Like any metaphor, if you think about it too much, it falls apart, so just bear with me a little bit. When the Yankees are making offers to players and competing with other teams, the level of their offer is based on what they believe the value of the player is, similar to how the bet you make in poker is based on how good your hand is. At some point, the Yankees may decide that a player's returns are just not worth the risk of increasing the bet (be it in the form of prospects or money) and bow out, or 'fold.' There are obviously a lot more factors that go into it, and this is a grossly oversimplified way of thinking of it, but its fun I think.

To me, these folds are almost as satisfying as making big signings. I got to thinking about this after reading an article about how Johan Santana might not make his first start this season. I think the Santana deal falling through is my favorite Yankee fold that I can think of. Between missing large portions of his 2nd and 3rd seasons with the Mets, missing all of last season, and with lingering injury concerns, I am very glad he is not our 6 year $120 million problem. Plus, had we signed him, I don't think we would have signed CC. I think that the fold on Darvish will turn out to have been a good one, but of course it is too soon to tell.

What are your favorite deals that fell through?

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…similar to how the bet you make in poker is based on how good your hand is.

Not a good comparison since it’s a game played based upon incomplete information. But there are some similarities here. And I hope you’re not bet-sizing based on the strength of your hands.

by Scooby Snacks on Jan 15, 2012 1:22 PM EST reply actions  

one memorable almost deal

Was Albert Belle after the 1998 season, when Bernie was a FA and there was talk he wouldn’t come back. Thankfully, both sides came to their senses, but there was some talk of signing Belle and putting up with his quirks in order to replace (and really, if Belle stayed healthy, improve upon) Bernie’s production. I don’t know how it would have worked out if Belle had stayed healthy, but I know it would’ve been a disaster if he’d missed almost all of his contract.

by long time listener on Jan 18, 2012 9:42 AM EST reply actions  

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