Talking Prospects: Learning From Mistakes
In the middle of the last decade, the Yankees had two top ten pitching prospects by the names of Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain. They now have two new top pitching prospects, Manny Banuelos and Dellin Betances.
I believe the Yankees did their best with Hughes. Injuries happen, and none of those injuries were to his arm. It's hard to fault the Yankees on that one. However, I do find fault in their development of Joba.
Joba spent one season in the minor leagues, 2007, tossing 88 1/3 innings over three different levels. He dominated, but his brilliance blinded the Yankees. He needed to build up his innings in order to be an effective starter, but the Yankees and their win now mentality got in the way of his overall development.
Joba then got called up and tossed 24 innings in the regular season, plus another 3 2/3 in the postseason, giving him 116 innings on the year. It was an exceptional first professional season.
But then they kept him on the major league roster instead of sending him to Triple-A or Double-A to work on his changeup and curveball, and to build up his innings. They started him in the bullpen, transitioned him to the rotation with increasing pitch counts, and he eventually hurt his shoulder. He then didn't make a rehab assignment and pitched out of the bullpen for the remainder of the year. He only threw 100 innings.
In 2009, they attempted to increae Joba's workload, and after throwing only 100 innings in 2008, Joba tossed 163 1/3 innings, far more than what his arm was used to. The Verducci Effect was written all over it. He struggled down the stretch with the "Joba Rules," and was sent back to the bullpen in time for the playoffs. After losing a Spring Training competition to Phil Hughes, Chamberlain hasn't started since.
I do think Joba was handled poorly, and I think his masive increase in innings from 2008 to 2009 may have had an impact on his elbow, which is currently on the mend after Tommy John surgery.
This little travel through time brings me to the present. The Yankees know what it is like to have elite pitching prospects get away. With two more top prospects waiting and developing, we can only hope that the Yankees have learned from their mistakes.
They have carefully monitored their innings this season, 129 2/3 for Banuelos, 126 1/3 for Betances. They will be ready for an increase next season, with their likely starting spots at Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre.
Let's hope they stay healthy, and let's hope the Yankees do not rush their development. If the Yankees take a look back into their recent history, they'll see exactly what rushing a prospect can do.
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I don't see Banuelos or Betances starting in the Bronx until 2013 myself.
I think that the Yankees will sign or trade for a starter to fill out the rotation, have Hector Noesi be the sixth starter when someone hits the 15 day DL or if they have a doubleheader, and let the two B’s marinate in AAA all season long.
+1 Nice post
NYY need at least one of these two to become an ace.
Bring lawyers, guns and money to get me out of this one! Stand in the Fire.
What about Nova?
he’s looked like an ace type guy this year.
And that's the problem
With the “win now” mentality, he HAS to come up and look like an ace or else he’ll be sent back down or traded.
"WHO WOULD LEAD?! THE CLOWN?!"
by I'mGivingYouARaise on Sep 6, 2011 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Look at how Nova responded to being sent down:
He took the opportunity to work out a few kinks, he developed a pitch he’d forgotten about for half the year, and he returned with a “pitch like my job is on the line every game” mentality. I kind of think that all things considered he’s pitched better since he was called back up than he did before he was sent down.
That's because he's a great pitcher
But he was starting to pitch better even before he was sent down, which is why so many of us were upset when he was sent back down in the first place.
"WHO WOULD LEAD?! THE CLOWN?!"
by I'mGivingYouARaise on Sep 6, 2011 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Nova isn't an ace type guy.
He’s been a quality mid-roation starter this season and I expect him to be so for years to come.
I'm hoping he can be another Andy Pettitte
"WHO WOULD LEAD?! THE CLOWN?!"
by I'mGivingYouARaise on Sep 6, 2011 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions
+1, I think this is what we should hope for from Nova. Hoping for him to be an ace isn’t fair to him because I just don’t think it’s possible for him.
The Savior has come, and he is glorious. #63
The continued development of that slider he’s been working on, with his curveball, changeup, and mid 90s fastball could vault him into a number two guy.
I have to say, I was down on Nova in the beginning of the year. He was struggling mightily, couldn’t locate, and his curveball was looking flat.
Now, he worked on his slider in the minors and has come up showing good command with four pitches to use. I like his future now more than I did then
Contributing writer for Pinstripe Alley.
I believe in the Church of Baseball.
- Annie Savoy
You go through The Sporting News for the last 100 years, and you will find two things are always true. You never have enough pitching, and nobody ever made money.
- Donald Fehr
by Frank Campagnola on Sep 6, 2011 8:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Nova's not an ace
He’d a solid mid rotation starter. No way he’s among the elite.
Don’t get me wrong, solid mid-rotation guys are still very valuable pitchers and thats what I expect Nova to be for years. I expect an ERA around 3.80-4.00 and for him to eat up innings and keep the Yankees in games consistently.
Welcome to the Majors, Jesus!
Now PLAY HIM MOAR!!
I like this post, but I don't have much confidence in the Yankee organization for developing young pitchers
Inning counts are one thing, but I have long felt that the Yankees have not done a very good job of maturing their young arms. Joba, Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy amongst others, those guys are glaring examples of the Yankees maybe tinkering TOO much. I’m actually surprised that Joba hasn’t demanded a trade from the Yankees after the way they have consistently changed his role and toyed with his head. It’s not just the Joba Rules… but the bullpen to starter to bullpen to starter stuff just had to drive the guy nuts. Every start of his felt like a decision-maker. If he was bad, he was doen as a starter. If he pitched well, he got another chance. It felt like that for Phil Hughes and Kennedy too. Every start is like live or die. And low and behold, they didn’t perform up to par, or they injured themselves. and once an injury set in, then it’s back to the drawing board. Does Hughes come back as a starter when he’s healthy or should we just keep him in the bullpen.
Now look, Kennedy has had a stellar year in Arizona… pitching for a team that is just letting him pitch. He knows he is in the rotation so each start he is not pitching for his “life”. Granted, NY plays under a ton more presure and expectations so we don’t allow ourselves time to just “figure it out”. Maybe that is our problem though? Yankee players know all about expectations. Is it really good for their mental health to constantly shuffle them back and forth and blur their pitching roles?
I love the Yankees, but, bringing along pitching prospects… well… we have work to do in my opinion.
"Madison Square Garden is the ultimate basketball stage. That's where I belong. That's where I live. That's the home of the New York Knicks." - Amar'e Stoudemire
by Chris Child's Fist on Sep 6, 2011 3:33 PM EDT reply actions
I remember when Joba was pitching as a starter and getting "stretched out"
The Yankees stuck to this specific pitch count and pulled Joba from numerous starts before he was even eligible for the Win. Sometimes it was an inning, sometimes it was 1 or two outs to qualify! I mean, not that stats are everything, but little things like helping a young starter get credit for a win… man, that certainly builds confidence!
"Madison Square Garden is the ultimate basketball stage. That's where I belong. That's where I live. That's the home of the New York Knicks." - Amar'e Stoudemire
by Chris Child's Fist on Sep 6, 2011 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't think that letting the guy think that every game is could be his last is necessarily a bad thing
I think it depends on the person. I realize Nova’s still in his rookie year, but I think they’ve done a good job with him, even with the month-long demotion. Since then, he’s approached every game as though he still needs to prove that he belongs in the rotation. As a result, he’s had a completely different attitude: Goes deeper into the game, doesn’t implode when he gets into trouble. For Nova, this seems like a good approach; for Joba, it didn’t work.
I think it can properly motivate a guy...
However, what about when a guy is shaping his role? Stretching a bullpen fireballer into a frontline starter, as with Joba?
And as great as Nova has pitched… when he does good it just sort of quiets the critics until the next start. Hey, eventually, Nova win streak is gonna end. What do you think we will be talking about if he gets shelled for like 7-8 runs? Suddenly the chatter of, “Well, he’s not ready.” “Does he deserve a rotation spot really?” is what comes out of everyone’s mouth. It’s suddenly forgotten that dude has won 8 straight starts and is like 11-0 the last few months! From a rookie too! Suddenly it’s like we expect a rookie to be our #2 guy. #2 on the biggest baseball stage in the MLB. That’s just a lot. And while maybe Nova has survived thus far, our last 3 young pitchers have not fared very well… Joba, Hughes and Kennedy. It also says something to me that Kennedy is in Arizona and pitching terrific.
"Madison Square Garden is the ultimate basketball stage. That's where I belong. That's where I live. That's the home of the New York Knicks." - Amar'e Stoudemire
by Chris Child's Fist on Sep 6, 2011 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Personally, I don't agree that they developed Hughes well
Like it’s been said, the “win now at any cost” mentality can really hamper prospect development and I worry that this will be the case with ManBan and Betances. Hell, I worry it’ll be the case with Jesus too.
"WHO WOULD LEAD?! THE CLOWN?!"
by I'mGivingYouARaise on Sep 6, 2011 3:46 PM EDT reply actions
You might be on to something.
It seems that most of the current aces (Halladay, Verlander, Hernandez, Lee, CC) have had or continue to have significant time on losing teams.
Unfortunately, if what you say is true, things will have to get a lot worse for the Yankees before they get any better on the pitching development front.
Usqueadbaugham! Anam muck an dhoul ! Did ye drink me doornail?
by Q-TDSK on Sep 6, 2011 5:34 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Thing is, they built up his innings pretty well until injuries hampered him in 2007 and 2008. That’s not exactly the Yankees fault. None of his injuries were arm related up until this season
Contributing writer for Pinstripe Alley.
I believe in the Church of Baseball.
- Annie Savoy
You go through The Sporting News for the last 100 years, and you will find two things are always true. You never have enough pitching, and nobody ever made money.
- Donald Fehr
by Frank Campagnola on Sep 6, 2011 7:37 PM EDT up reply actions
I somewhat disagree on Joba
I agree that Hughes, was given every chance to succeed and honestly he has been underwhelming outside of his Pen stint. Meanwhile Joba i think is more a of a combination of Injuries and a bit of failure by the front office. I do not think juggling him between the Pen and starter was a good idea. At the same time his second half failure in 2009 was not exactly unexpected. He had a nice ERA, but his peripherals did not match the ERA, so a drop in performance was expected. It was just made worse by that ridiculous pitch count innings limit thing they had him on, where he threw like 3 innings a start. off course another problem was also his missing 2 MPH as a starter.
I think it’s pretty clear the Yanks mishandled Joba. Having him increase his innings by over 60 from 2008 to 2009 was a recipe for disaster.
That, and he had no developmental time in the minors. 88 innings is not sufficient
Contributing writer for Pinstripe Alley.
I believe in the Church of Baseball.
- Annie Savoy
You go through The Sporting News for the last 100 years, and you will find two things are always true. You never have enough pitching, and nobody ever made money.
- Donald Fehr
by Frank Campagnola on Sep 6, 2011 7:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Speaking of Yankees pitching prospects
Brackman is in the Yankees clubhouse as well as Golson and Kontos. Noesi is also back as well.
"Kick ass. pop champagne. And get some ho's"-Hideki Matsui
Chamberlin was an accident looking 4 a place 2 happen.
The reason the Yanks were able to get him inb the draft was because
his arm mechanics were poor and arm troubles down the road were
expected.
Just like Elvis Andrus.
"in order that you will write correctly of wat you really see if you dint go around with your eyes shut"
Cricket blog?
I like how the Yankees handled Nova’s development. He pitched 140 inning seasons 3 times in the minors, and in the third season was called up to bump his workload to about 180, before being called to start the year in the majors. You can’t expect guys to throw 200 innings if the most they’ve ever done was 100ish, that’s like throwing a 300 lb barbell on someone to bench-press when the most they’ve ever done was 150 lbs. That’s ligament damage waiting to happen.
The Savior has come, and he is glorious. #63
Exactly what I meant with regards to Joba. Can’t expect someone to handle 160+ innings when throwing only 100 the year before.
At least Hughes had once thrown 146 innings and the Yankees were on their way to developing him well. Not the organization’s fault that he suffered some crappy, non-arm related injuries that forced their hand a bit.
Contributing writer for Pinstripe Alley.
I believe in the Church of Baseball.
- Annie Savoy
You go through The Sporting News for the last 100 years, and you will find two things are always true. You never have enough pitching, and nobody ever made money.
- Donald Fehr
by Frank Campagnola on Sep 6, 2011 8:32 PM EDT up reply actions
20 / 20 Hindsight
Most highly touted young prospect flamethrowers flame out. Joba is a legit major leaguer, a highly effective relief pitcher. When he recovers from his recent surgery, he will likely be an effective pitcher once again.
You never know what your history is going to be like until long after you're gone.
He could have been a highly effective major league starter had the Yankees not rushed him through the system and forced big innings increases on him.
Contributing writer for Pinstripe Alley.
I believe in the Church of Baseball.
- Annie Savoy
You go through The Sporting News for the last 100 years, and you will find two things are always true. You never have enough pitching, and nobody ever made money.
- Donald Fehr
by Frank Campagnola on Sep 6, 2011 10:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Agree that the Yankees handling of Joba could have been better, but to say that this caused his injuries is still speculation.
Some players are able to freely bounce between starting and relieving, and innings pitched make no difference. Others are handled strictly by the book and still break down. Others train their asses off and suffer thousands of little dings, others are David Wells.
Are the Yankees mishandling Bartolo Colon by overusing him this year? Probably, but nobody cares because he’s a stopgap.
The point is that ‘mishandling’ pitchers may increase or decrease the odds of an injury, but I don’t see a strict cause and effect relationship.
by designatedquitter on Sep 7, 2011 9:37 AM EDT reply actions
I didn’t say anything caused it:
I think his masive increase in innings from 2008 to 2009 may have had an impact on his elbow
There’s been a ton of young pitchers that have gotten hurt after a big increase in innings.
Contributing writer for Pinstripe Alley.
I believe in the Church of Baseball.
- Annie Savoy
You go through The Sporting News for the last 100 years, and you will find two things are always true. You never have enough pitching, and nobody ever made money.
- Donald Fehr
by Frank Campagnola on Sep 7, 2011 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions

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