Have we been tricked?
by DCyanks21 on Aug 17, 2011 12:36 PM EDT
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PrintFrom what I have watched over this season Eduardo Nunez has been a decent baseball player. But when I look up his stats on fangraphs it says he has been good at all. I see the triple slash of .268/.319/.390 with a wOBA of .321. His WAR isn't even a positive number. It's a -0.3. I have a hard time believing this. Nunez hasn't been bad. He's been a good hitter, an okay baserunner, but a poor defender. I agree with his -12.1 UZR.
But is that the entire reason why Nunez's WAR is a negative? His offense is pedestrian, but maybe there's a reason why I thought he was doing so well. Probably one the eye test doesn't always tell the truth. And two maybe I just figured he was filling in for Alex Rodriguez and did a great job holding the position. Even though he's been worth less than a replacement player.
What's the cause PSA?
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His seven hits in two games back in the beginning of July probably tricked a lot of people. I mean, he’s been exactly what he’s supposed to be as a bench player.
"Everything looks nicer when you win. The girls are prettier, the cigars taste better. The trees are greener."—Billy Martin
True.
But do you think he should get playing time once Alex comes back?
Residing on the BEast Coast.
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He’ll probably play once a week and Chavez will play twice a week. I think we’ll see more of Rodriguez at DH possibly.
"Everything looks nicer when you win. The girls are prettier, the cigars taste better. The trees are greener."—Billy Martin
by Chris McKeown on Aug 17, 2011 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions
he is playing well
and all thoes extra stats like WAR are bull…… baseball is an eye test and introducing things like WAR and BABIP and whatever else they put in are only for the fans. Do you really think players know what these things are nevermind care what they are.
Now im not directing my anger at you DC rather this is in general…but these stats piss me off.
Whats wrong with BA, OBP, Slugging %, strikeouts, and walks when dictating how good a batter is.
And ERA. BB, K’s, W and L as a pitcher
WAR isn't bull.
That’s a little ignorant.
Residing on the BEast Coast.
Read my blog Every Four Downs
Even by BA and OBP Nunez has been pretty average offensively
he’s has some nice moments which stand out more than the time he hasn’t done anything, which makes people think he’s better than he actually is. Also the eye test is the most bullshit thing in baseball honestly, since 5 people can see 5 different things on any given play.
i get what your saying
but im not saying the eye test on a particular play, im talking about when you judge a batter, there is the fan eye test and the player eye test…. these stats dont put everything in perspective…. now lets say nunez has a ten pitch at bat and on the tenth pitch strikes out thats a great at bat….and then he lines out, and his 3rd at bat he bloops a single in…..we look at the box score and see 1 for 3, now what players see is the ten pitch at bat that drives the pitch count up and allows them to see everything the pitcher has……most dont see that.
Or defensively we say he is horrible and jeter is solid …..but take this into consideration nunez gets to way more ball than jeter which is going to result in more errors while DJ lets them be hits. Again there is the fan and Player eye tests …. we see him booting a ball and getting an error that DJ would have never even gotten to…… but players would rather see the errors and effort rather than it go through without effort. In saying that he has had problems with balls right to him but thats not the point , the point is these extra stats that were just put in are just more ways to allow fans to criticize players.
Thats my opinion.
by SLAUGHTERHOUSE on Aug 17, 2011 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Range is taken into consideration in WAR and UZR/ DRS
What you said in the second part is exactly what Sabremetrics show. Nunez has been slight above par in terms of range but his errors do play against him in term of UZR/DRS and his overall WAR. While Sabremetrics also show that Jeter has a solid glove but no range which result in him having a poor defensive rating and negatively affect his WAR. WAR isn’t invent so we can criticize players, it shows a player’s worth and value. Usually WAR does not differentiate much with what we see anyways. We see that Bautista is a monster this year, WAR shows that. We see that Gardner is one of the best fielders in baseball…WAr/ UZR shows that too…so the eye test argument is just redundant.
i understand where you are coming from because
baseball is tricky like that…you can go 3-3 with 3 bloops or 0-3 with some good ABs and line drives…its just how it works out somedays….but these results are from small sample sizes….3 at bats is nothing….you need to look at all of nunez’s at bats….over the course of a season no one can be that unlucky…one day maybe….but not over an entire season [adam dunn just sucks this year] you get a better perspective of a players true talent level
regular stats, rate stats, sabermetrics, and the eye test are all needed to accurately judge a player
dont get caught into the trap of eye tests [everyone can judge a play differently] and small sample sizes
Don't you stick that knife in your leg...
by LaserVortex888 on Aug 17, 2011 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Some problems with things you said
First, there is no “eye test” for batting. Results are results. Now, there are many statistics that can imply whether the results a batter gets are being driven by luck or actual talent. I’m not sure why you are against sabermetrics, because these are the exact things you are talking about. Pitches per plate appearance have a direct correlation to BABIP: the more pitches a batter sees, the more likely it is that he will see a mistake pitch that he can hit hard into play. BABIP is responsible for perhaps 60% of the variation in wRC+, so if Nunez is frequently forcing pitchers to go deep into counts, this will begin to be reflected in his walk rates and BABIP. Your example of him lining out and then getting a bloop single is a perfect example of BABIP. The expected BABIP of line drives is somewhere around .700, so if he lined out we would say that he got really bad luck on that ball in play. With the bloop single, he got good luck, so they somewhat evened each other out.
For defense, the problem with your argument is that Nunez doesn’t get to enough extra balls to make up for his errors. Nunez right now is on pace for 48 errors per 150 defensive games played, and Jeter is on pace for about 14. Looking at their range, if they both played 150 games, Nunez would get to about 6 more balls. That leaves him in a deficit of 28 outs recorded vs. Jeter, going by their numbers right now, and that is almost the exact difference in their UZR/150. Now, the caveat to this is that Nunez has only played 280 innings at short, so his UZR is not stabilized. His horrendous early play makes it look like he is the worst SS of all time, but I would say he’s probably not. He was probably just a nervous rookie who made some rookie mistakes. Given more time, his UZR will regress to his actual talent level, which is probably still below average for a shortstop.
Finally, the stats aren’t about giving us more ways to criticize players. The stats are there to help us understand what’s really going on. People thought Jeter was awesome at defense for years because he did that nifty jump throw, but when better methods of judging defense came around, people found out that he was actually not that good. And just so you know, a lot of these stats were created by people who actually worked for teams to help them in player evaluation.
So now the guys in the subway are saying Jesus is coming on October 21, 2011, but that would mean he wouldn't be on the playoff roster, let alone be eligible for it. I really don't know where these guys are getting their information from...
Not that I disagree
But doesn’t your pithy repetitiveness start to bore even yourself? What do you have a hotkey for these stupid sayings?
by HappyLuckyGoldenDragonNumber1! on Aug 17, 2011 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I'm looking through my hotkey right now for the appropriate response...
Here we go: zzzzzzzZZZZZZzzzzzzZZZZZzzzzzZZZZzzzzz
x
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by Jedi Master A-Rod on Aug 17, 2011 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Nunez has been good, the numbers mean shite
Last night, a comedian died in New York. Somebody knows why. Somebody knows
Agree
One of the things I like about him are his lines with RISP (.344/.403/.410) and RISP w/ 2 outs (.320/.414/.480). It may not be a large sample size, but he seems to come through in the clutch.
My guess is that the low WAR is related to his 15 errors.
Mickey C
yes it's the errors
as a SS his range is actually slightly above par but the errors basically negates all his range and then some. (although his range at 3b base has been well below par but he’s less error prone)
no doubt its the errors that bring all that down
which seem to have gone away
Last night, a comedian died in New York. Somebody knows why. Somebody knows
His WAR is bad because of his UZR
I believe the errors he committed were more of an aberration than his true defensive skill. The fact that he is hitting so well and stealing as many bases as he is is very encouraging. I would give him another year of data in the field before making judgements about how good he is defensively; especially after less than a hundred games in the field over multiple positions.
Even another year of defensive data isn’t enough if the Yankees continue using him as a utility man.
by Scooby Snacks on Aug 17, 2011 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Terrible defense + average offense = Negative WAR.
he was hot early on and now has cooled off an his offense is back to league average. Also the majority of his negative UZR is due to his terrible Rating in terms of errors…which is not a surprise.
PPL Look into WAR way to much
He runs hard every hit (2nd on the team in steals) he does have a good arm but makes E (he is a Rookie) and i like his bat a lot. Almost everytime he hits it is a good sound off his bat. If the Yanks traded him to worst team for some bullpen help or a big time name bench player he would be starting for them.
by TheYankeeClipper on Aug 17, 2011 1:49 PM EDT reply actions
How can a replacement player be less than a replacement player...
I bet it's good to be playing again, huh?
by david d on Aug 17, 2011 2:15 PM EDT reply actions 3 recs
Because on 20 other teams in the league possibly more
Nunez probably would be on the starting lineup on opening day next season?
by HappyLuckyGoldenDragonNumber1! on Aug 17, 2011 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Because it’s an average. Obviously, some will be above it, and some below it.
So now the guys in the subway are saying Jesus is coming on October 21, 2011, but that would mean he wouldn't be on the playoff roster, let alone be eligible for it. I really don't know where these guys are getting their information from...
his bat is good enough
his bat is above average but his glove is below average
above average hitting middle infield type players are a rare commodity these days and ill take him anyday
the glove can always improve
hitting MLB pitching above average is super rare
Don't you stick that knife in your leg...
I think the negative numbers reflect two different issues:
1) He did make a bunch of errors early on, but lots of rookies do that
2) He’s played a number of different positions, and that makes it hard to play anyu of them well, expecially for a rookie.
He’s been much better lately on defense, and I expect him to continue to improve and become a valuable everyday player.
So the short answer is ‘Yes, you’ve been tricked.’
by designatedquitter on Aug 17, 2011 4:20 PM EDT reply actions
Eduardo Nunez has a .319 OBP and has made 15 errors. He’s very talented and flashes some great ability at times, but as far as the production that he’s actually given on the field, I don’t know why it’s shocking that he wouldn’t be highly rated.
I think that if the Yankees stick with him, he’ll iron out his defense and continue to improve offensively, but it’s not like he’s been raking or flashing the leather and not getting recognized for it.
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Not saying he has, but he seemed better than -.3.
His defense has just been that bad.
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I’ll say this much, I love his swing.
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His defense has been THAT bad
He’s hit the ball alright though and he’s improving everyday. Not making nearly as many errors now as he did in the beginning of the season, thankfully.
CALL UP JESUS MONTERO!
ugh...
I read through some of these comments and just felt disgusted. I thought PSA had become educated in the purpose of the newer stats, but I guess not.
To answer the original post, his WAR is negative because of his defense. His overall offense has been a bit below average, which is typical of shortstops. The fact that he’s an average offensive shortstop in his rookie year shows he has potential to be above average as he continues to mature. His defensive play has been really bad, though. 15 errors in just a bit over 600 defensive innings is not good, and he will have to work on that. Even if he’s pretty good on defense for the rest of the year, his UZR probably won’t get back to even this year. He’s still a young kid, though, so if he can bring his defense to just average he will be an everyday shortstop for some team.
Whats wrong with BA, OBP, Slugging %, strikeouts, and walks when dictating how good a batter is.
And ERA. BB, K’s, W and L as a pitcher
Nothing is wrong with BA if you want to know how often a batter gets a base hit. But that is all BA tells you. It does not tell you how good a batter is. The same is true of OBP and SLG. Looking at OBP and SLG together (but not adding them like OPS does, which is just stupid) is better, but it’s still hard to interpret what you’re looking at sometimes. Is a guy with a .290/.360/.450 line better than a .290/.350/.470? I don’t know, it’s not very obvious. This is the entire point of stats like wOBA and wRC+, instead of looking at 4 different numbers for batters and trying to guess at how they fit together, you have one number that you can compare directly between players. It’s really easy.
For pitchers, you are a it more on the right track. ERA is fine, but it doesn’t tell the whole story. K’s and BB’s are indeed good things to look at, in particular the ratio between the two. Wins and Losses, however, are the dumbest stats to judge pitchers by. Phil Hughes won 18 games last year, and Felix Hernandez only won 13. Any argument you want to make for Ws and Ls will be blown apart by that single sentence. Ws and Ls have as much if not more to do with the offensive support a pitcher gets than his own production. It’s pretty easy to win 18 games when you get almost 7 runs of support: all you have to do is last 5 innings without getting completely blasted.
So now the guys in the subway are saying Jesus is coming on October 21, 2011, but that would mean he wouldn't be on the playoff roster, let alone be eligible for it. I really don't know where these guys are getting their information from...
by Wraithpk on Aug 18, 2011 6:20 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Wins and losses are better if you're looking at it long-term
They’re completely useless in single seasons. The only reason I’d use wins and losses is to evaluate a pitcher after 15-16 years and see how their career has gone. How many wins they have could actually mean something. For example, if you’re a pitcher and you win 300 games, then that means you were a great pitcher. You don’t get that high based on run support and luck alone- you’re doing something right. So I wouldn’t mind evaluating a pitchers W/L record as if it means something if it’s the W/L over a long period of time.
CALL UP JESUS MONTERO!
I still wouldn't really bother
It’s a nice landmark, but if you play on some shitty, shitty teams your entire career, that’s supposed to be your fault exactly how? Bert Blyleven is an easy example that’s come up recently. Don’t you think he’d easily have 300 wins if he played on a better team? And yet those 13 wins kept him from the HoF for so long.
I don’t know. There was a time I used to look at individual pitchers’ records and know what each pitcher’s record was. Now, I haven’t bothered to see them and I skip right over to K’s, BB’s, etc.
I get your point that in a large enough sample, good pitchers will win more games than poor pitchers. But even writing that, I almost put win as “win”, because how DOES a pitcher win a game? A team wins a game. Pitchers pitch well or poorly. Now if you told me you’d look at a pitcher’s ERA in a large sample size, I’m down with you.
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by Hasan Paliwala on Aug 18, 2011 7:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, I pretty much agree with what you said. Pettitte won 240 games in his 16 year career, but he pitched for the strongest dynasty baseball has seen in a really long time, and then continued to pitch on very strong teams throughout his career. His teams only missed the playoffs 3 times in 16 years. If you put him on the Pirates for those same years, how many wins does he end his career with? The Pirates over those years won 71% as many games as the Yankees, so you could estimate he would have won 170 games. Same pitcher, one wins 240, the other 170.
So now the guys in the subway are saying Jesus is coming on October 21, 2011, but that would mean he wouldn't be on the playoff roster, let alone be eligible for it. I really don't know where these guys are getting their information from...
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