A Logical Solution to the Pitching Staff (that will never happen)

by ZigKitsune on Aug 17, 2011 12:20 AM EDT

A while back, I read Tom Tango's "The Book--Playing the Percentages in Baseball" and found it a quite compelling read. One of the concepts that I liked most was the management of a top-heavy pitching staff. Tango presented the concept using the 1990's Atlanta Braves with Maddux, Smoltz, and Glavine. The idea was to have a team's four and five starters pitch on the same day, in order to cut the times a lineup would see a lesser quality pitcher.

For example, using the 2011 Phillies, Halladay and Lee would pitch consecutive days, Oswalt (I am putting him fourth because of injury history) would pitch 3 innings on the third day with Worley relieving for 3 innings, Hamels pitching the fourth day, and then Worley/Oswalt for 3 innings on the fifth day.

The theory behind this is fairly solid; it keeps rosters the same and gives a team a better chance at winning by cutting down batter familiarity.

Applying this concept to the Yankees, they could do an alternate version using their 6-man staff. First, I am going to list my idea, and then I will explain my reasoning. Feel free to attack my idea in the comments. My one qualifier, my arguments are statistically based but I allowed personal judgment if needed.

Game One: CC

Game Two: Colon

Game Three: AJ/Garcia/Hughes

Game Four: Nova

Game Five: Garcia/AJ/Hughes

Thanks to Baseball Reference, I created a chart of the triple slash lines of each pitcher, the first through third times through the order.

CC: [.194/.249/.281] [.284/.328/.395] [.221/.276/.337]

Nova*: [.256/.322/.359] [.263/.316/.391] [.259/.341/.405]

Garcia: [.231/.306/.319] [.297/.331/.481] [.273/.321/.453]

Colon: [.258/.313/.450] [.224/.271/.357] [.294/.347/.450]

AJ: [.212/.289/.359] [.259/.327/.431] [.292/.383/.524]

Hughes**: [.292/.354/.431] [.329/.364/.514] [.286/.375/.514]

Obviously, I put CC as number one, not only because of the numbers but also because of his potential to go deep and his ability to be a horse. I put Colon as the number two starter because he was fairly consistent through the order (actually improving the second time through) and he has solid stuff. Nova is the number three in my staff because his numbers are so consistent through the order that he does not seem to follow the pattern of regression expected, or at least has yet to show drastic numbers. AJ and Garcia both have steep jumps for the second time through the order, so naturally they fell into the fourth and fifth spots, with AJ getting the number four nod due to better numbers. Hughes rounds out the staff, partially due to results (see the note below), but also because he has a history of success relieving.

This rotation also allows for some flexibility in the bullpen, giving the pen a rest if the 4/5/6 starters are able to go three innings on a game five day (allowing two days rest before the two-inning game three) and reduces the innings pitched for middle relievers.

This staff will never happen because baseball does not embrace change, and with major league egos and Girardi at the helm, I doubt this concept would even make it to the drawing board. This is not for Girardi though; it is for you PSA, thoughts?

*These were the numbers before Nova's start against the Royals

**These are full season numbers, which may not be a fair evaluation for Hughes, but cherry-picking just convolutes the process

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I like the idea a lot. It makes sence to winning games, but like you said the Yankees would never do it.

Rec’d!

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- Derek Jeter

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Earn Your [Pin]Stripes

by BrettGardnerLF on Aug 17, 2011 9:37 AM EDT reply actions

MLBPA
Player agents

by Scooby Snacks on Aug 17, 2011 2:00 PM EDT reply actions

Lets say the this technique increases game 3/5 wins by 15%. This means that the second pitcher would “vulture” more wins while still getting the same amount of starts. It would also improve a players numbers, if it cut down the amount of damage done against the pitcher. I would argue that agents would love to sell their pitchers on platoon-gained stats.

MLBPA? Are they taking to the cause of Hughes if he gets demoted to the pen?

Remember when I was Lance Pendleton's biggest fan? Back to reality.

by ZigKitsune on Aug 17, 2011 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions

this ignores the human element

you think AJ, Freddy and Hughes are all good out of the pen? not to mention egos, etc etc.

this is one of those theories that looks obvious and perfect on paper but a team could never get away with it in the real world.

by Matt dubs on Aug 17, 2011 3:03 PM EDT reply actions

Like Communism and The Champagne Room at the Strip Club

Excellent on paper but never really works out in real life.

by HappyLuckyGoldenDragonNumber1! on Aug 17, 2011 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions

But the latter two have been tested

Maybe the Yanks don’t do it, but a team like Oakland or Seattle does. For a team in flux, why not try it?

Remember when I was Lance Pendleton's biggest fan? Back to reality.

by ZigKitsune on Aug 17, 2011 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions

The last time I remember a team doing anything even vaguely similar, the White Sox ran Wilbur Wood out there every 3rd day.

He was a knuckleballer who didn’t mind the work, and everyone else sucked. It worked in the sense that he won about as much as he lost, and everyone else was worse.

by designatedquitter on Aug 17, 2011 4:24 PM EDT reply actions

Did the Braves actually do this? It’s not a bad idea, but it would never happen. I think I remember posting an idea similar to this a while ago, based on the premise that batting average against usually goes up the more times a batter sees a pitcher in a game.

So now the guys in the subway are saying Jesus is coming on October 21, 2011, but that would mean he wouldn't be on the playoff roster, let alone be eligible for it. I really don't know where these guys are getting their information from...

by Wraithpk on Aug 17, 2011 7:19 PM EDT reply actions

No they did not.

This has never been done, because it wasn’t done fifty years ago. But, with the restrictions some minor league player have as far as depth, I could see a version of this happening.

Remember when I was Lance Pendleton's biggest fan? Back to reality.

by ZigKitsune on Aug 17, 2011 8:00 PM EDT up reply actions