The Decline of True Yankees (TM)
I was originally going to mention this Fangraphs article about replacement-level players on playoff teams in a Fanshot, but I have a little bit more to say on the matter. There's an important lesson to be learned from it for the Yankees, and it's unfortunate that they don't get it. The lowest WAR total ever for a player receving 500+ plate appearances on a playoff team is Bernie Williams in 2005, who finished at an astonishing -2.2 WAR. Here's the scoop from the article:
Bernie Williams, CF, -2.2 WAR over 546 plate appearances for the 2005 AL East Champion Yankees. I’m not sure what is most hilarious: that the Yankees kept starting Bernie in center despite him being obviously unable to handle the position for years, that the Yankees brought Bernie back in 2005 although he’d been washed up since 2003, that they brought him back again in 2006 and gave him another 462 plate appearances ["good" for -1.2 WAR], or that they managed to win the division both seasons anyway. A sad end to an otherwise distinguished career.
Let's make one thing perfectly clear- Bernie Williams was a superb player for many years, and other than Rickey Henderson's monster 31.7 WAR stint in 4.5 seasons during the '80s, he's been the best centerfielder they've had since Mantle. I am not here to diminish Bernie Williams's legacy, because he was so important to the Yankee teams of the '90s and early 2000s that he probably deserves number retirement (way more than O'Neill, Martin, Maris, and Howard anyway, and arguably even more than Torre, Rizzuto, Mattingly, and Guidry). That being said, he was just crap for the Yankees in the last few years of his career. More after the jump.
Bernie's last good season was 2002, when he contended for the batting title and ended up at .333/.415/.493 with a .396 wOBA, 146 wRC+, and a 5.1 WAR. He was always about a league-average defender (apologies to those non-Gold Glove winners from '97-'00), but his defense just became absolutely atrocious in his later years. It didn't take defensive metrics for people to realize that- he wasn't as fast as he used to be, so his range fell drastically (let's not even get into how crappy his arm was). In almost 16,663 innings, his UZR from 2002-06 was -109.5 Jesus. So why was he being run out there? Because he was a "True Yankee" (TM). Joe Torre was very loyal to him, and he was also under a lengthy 7-year $87.5 million contract beginning in 1999. He was able to keep numbers decent and his wRC+ & OPS+ above 100 in 2003 & 2004, but it sunk below that in 2005. (with only a slight increase in 2006). His bat could no longer compensate for his crappy defense. So let's see, we have a formerly great player being run out to a position that he couldn't properly defend anymore that pretty much couldn't be benched and was making a ton of money. Sound familiar?
The Yankees should have realized their mistakes from the Williams fiasco. They had their first chance when it became apparent that Jorge Posada could no longer properly field the catcher's position after the 2007 season. They had just locked him up to a new 4-year, $52.4 million contract, so they probably should have sat down and had a chat with him about transitioning to primary DH in the near future (not three whole years later) so that they could sign a more legitimate second catcher than Jose Molina who could play the majority of the games behind the dish while Posada caught occasionally and DH'd the rest. They did not, and Posada got injured in 2008, ruining his season (possibly because of the catching overload). In 2009, the Yankees ended up fortunate that Matsui's knees turned to dust and he had to become the DH while Posada's bat was able to mask his defense. Without a DH in 2010 and with Posada's glove in further decline, the opportunity was there again to make the transition but again the Yankees did not, and as a result, Posada's terrible defense began to overshadow his decline in offense. (Tangent: 2010 would have been the perfect year for a Russell Martin type catcher while Jesus learned the tricks in Scranton and then Jesus could have been in a better position to possibly get the pro job in 2011... but I digress).
Now, the Yankees are at a crossroads again with a franchise player whose defense is really falling and whose offense isn't good enough to hide it anymore. They have Derek Jeter under contract through 2013 with a player option for 2014, so unless they want a repeat of the Bernie & Posada conundrums, they're going to have to sit down and have a nice chatskies with their Captain. Surely as a team leader and of course "Captain," he should realize that his weakened glove is hurting the team? I hate to cite a Red Sox player, but it would seem their captain has made an egoless change to backup just fine (though he still sucks). Just because the Yankees are paying Jeter a ridiculous $51 million contract over the next three years shouldn't handcuff them into sticking a defensive liability out there. If he's a real leader, then he'll have no problem transitioning to a reduced role in some way. I don't think they can really do it now, mid-season, but this could certainly be a project for 2012. As some people have mentioned (who I now agree with), maybe Jeter could learn a little 3rd base and 2nd (hell, even 1st) to become a sort of backup jack-of-all-trades. Yes, Omar Vizquel was a way better fielding talent than Jeter ever was, but he seemed to figure it out at age 43. Jeter's six years younger than Vizquel was when he did that. Why can't he? It sucks to see a guy who was one of your best players decline the way Jeter currently is and how WIlliams & Posada did, but you have to make adjustments. I don't want to have to see Jeter become a negative WAR player, and I especially don't want to see him do it as a regular. Jeter, save yourself the embarrassment and step aside with pride. Yankees, bite the bullet and help him do so. It's for the best.
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if you honestly believe that bernie deserves a number retirement over
guidry, maris, or mattingly, you have no sense of history. he was great for several years though i dont think a HoFer.
derek jeter has no business playing shortstop right now if you remove the fact that hes derek jeter. i’d give him the outfield/DH roles, but in a world where baseball is all that matters and legacy doesnt, he shouldnt be starting.
עם ישראל חי
Rizzuto
was also a more important player in Yankee history than Bernie. Not a knock on Bernie – I get irritated with the “core four” references because they omit his significant contribution to the team – but Rizzuto was more important to the Yankees during his era than Bernie was during his.
Mickey C
Wow.
look I love Scooter, but you can’t honestly argue that he was more important to the Yankees at his time than Bernie. Rizzuto played on teams with Mantle, DiMaggio, and Berra. Hall of Famers. Bernie was in the heart of the order throughout the dynasty. The only better player than him on the Yankees during his prime was Jeter. Please don’t sell Bernie short by comparing a terrific hitting centerfielder with a light-hitting shortstop who probably doesn’t belong in the Hall of Fame.
Unless you're a pitcher or Gustavo Molina, kindly SWING THE BAT and ignore the Binder's bunt signal.
I could go on for hours
about the value of Rizzuto to the Yankees, pointing out, for example, that he was the 1950 MVP and second in the MVP voting in 1949 to Ted Williams, even with Dimaggio and Berra around. Instead, I will just give you Ted Williams’ comment that, if Rizzuto had been with the Red Sox instead of the Yankees, it would have been the Red Sox that won all those pennants.
Mickey C
I take very little credence in MVP voting.
Rizzuto was the correct winner 1950, but he shouldn’t have been close in ‘49. Ted Williams’s OWN shortstop, Vern Stephens had a damn fine year then and probably should have finished 2nd instead. As a matter of fact, that is quite the potshot that Williams took on his former shortstop teammates that he would’ve rather had Rizzuto. Here’s a list of starting shortstops for the Red Sox during Rizzuto’s time:
Joe Cronin (1939-41)- Hall of Famer
Johnny Pesky (1942)- Great player, Red Sox Hall of Famer
(not counting ‘43-’45 since Ted didn’t play then)
Pesky (1946-47)
Vern Stephens (1948-50)- Underrated All-Star, accumulate 15.7 WAR during these years, to Scooter’s 12.1
Pesky (1951)
(not counting ‘52 since Ted was in Korea)
Milt Bolling (1953-54)- ’50 and ’53 were the only years of Williams’s career where Rizzuto accumulated more WAR than a Red Sox shortstop. Bolling beat him in ‘54.
Billy Klaus (1955-56)- Rookie of the Year in ’55, and solid in ’56, while Rizzuto’s career fizzled out
Q.E.D.
Unless you're a pitcher or Gustavo Molina, kindly SWING THE BAT and ignore the Binder's bunt signal.
The problem with using WAR
for those years is that UZR, the defensive component of WAR, cannot be calculated with any accuracy. As I understand UZR, it requires a play-by-play analysis of results taking into account what “zone” a ball is hit into, what happens to it (out, hit, error), and what the average result is for balls hit into that zone. A fielder who gets more outs than average for balls hit into a zone gets a positive UZR. However, determining UZR requires game tapes so the rater can see exactly where the ball is hit. For the Rizzuto era, those game tapes are non-existent; games shown on TV were broadcast but not taped.
For someone like Vern Stephens, on the other hand, an adequate shortstop whose bat made him a star, statistics to support offensive WAR calculations are readily available. IMO the calculations of WAR for that era understate the contributions of players who were considered outstanding fielders, such as Rizzuto and DiMaggio.
That’s why I tend to rely on the testimony of people from that era, especially other players, in rating a player’s total contribution. Williams could be blunt – he was what he was, and if you didn’t like it he didn’t care – but he wasn’t stupid.
Mickey C
rec'd
I’ve always wondered exactly that about pre-war stats (Pre-war WAR?), particularly fielding stats.
May 29, 2010: Steven Revetria becomes Giants General Manager. The rest is history.
"118 elements, and still no stanfurdium"- carp, paraphrased
Bandwagons are fun- that's why people get on them in the first place.
by natteringnabob on Jun 27, 2011 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Yep, i have no sense of history at all. That's why I major in it.
Seriously think about it. Bernie had a longer period of greatness than any of those guys. Did they have better peaks? Yes, but they also had more clunkers than Bernie. Bernie was consistently great (and also quite durable).
Unless you're a pitcher or Gustavo Molina, kindly SWING THE BAT and ignore the Binder's bunt signal.
I agree with you. Mattingly only had about a 5 year peak, during which he was one of the best players in baseball, but it was very short lived. Not near enough to be a hall-of-famer. Maris probably deserves his number retired just as much as Bernie because, although he didn’t have as good a career with the Yankees as Bernie did, he did something historic while wearing the jersey.
So now the guys in the subway are saying Jesus is coming on October 21, 2011, but that would mean he wouldn't be on the playoff roster, let alone be eligible for it. I really don't know where these guys are getting their information from...
Phil Niekro did something historic while wearing the jersey. Just sayin’
Unless you're a pitcher or Gustavo Molina, kindly SWING THE BAT and ignore the Binder's bunt signal.
At least he's in the HoF
While Maris will probably never be, for the same reasons as Mattingly. Great but for too short of a time, regardless of making a huge mark in baseball history with 61 in ’61.
Maris was good
I believe that Maris is certainly entitled to a plaque in Monument Park. Number retirement? No. It should be 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 15, 16, 23, and 37, with 2 and 42 to follow. Mattingly just squeaks in there too; he doesn’t really fit in with the Hall of Famers and the fallen captain. If I’m barely including Mattingly, it makes Bernie’s case tougher too.
Unless you're a pitcher or Gustavo Molina, kindly SWING THE BAT and ignore the Binder's bunt signal.
Zing!
"Believe deep down in your heart that you're destined to do great things." - Joe Paterno
Follow me @csm5206
by Chris McKeown on Jun 22, 2011 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Jeter is not going to become a utility player anytime soon
Even though his numbers might be coming close to justify removing him from the lineup. He’ll be at shortstop for at least the next couple of years. He is after all, still the Yankees’ best shortstop (Nunez is not there yet). His bad does not justify putting him in the DH spot. So the only possibility is for Jeter to be moved to a different position. Not catcher or pitcher obviously, 1st base is taken for 5 more years, Cano will be at 2nd for a long time, Arod is signed for 6 more years, Gardner, Granderson and Swisher could stay in the outfield for awhile (but this is probably the next place to have an opening).
I don't think they're going to pay Derek $10+ per year to sit on the bench
Or jump into a utility role. He could split some DH time, but that will most likely go to a traditional (power hitting) DH most of the time. Jeter’s next stop is the outfield, probably right field.
“So, I’ll be playing whichever dicklick position I goddamn feel like,” Jeter added. “Hell, maybe I’ll play shortstop, third base, catcher, second base, and first base all at the same time. Have my own little around-the-horn circle jerk for five fucking hours if the mood strikes me. How’d that sit with everyone? Good? Good.”
"WHO WOULD LEAD?! THE CLOWN?!"
"FUCK INTERLEAGUE" -I'mGivingYouARaise
by I'mGivingYouARaise on Jun 18, 2011 3:46 PM EDT reply actions 5 recs
Something’s missing
Rec Generating Database
Ban BBS
Jedi Master A-Rod is a poster on Pinstripe Alley. He can be reached by clicking the "Reply" button below his comments.
by Jedi Master A-Rod on Jun 19, 2011 7:55 PM EDT reply actions
TRADE GARDNER!
is that better?
May 29, 2010: Steven Revetria becomes Giants General Manager. The rest is history.
"118 elements, and still no stanfurdium"- carp, paraphrased
Bandwagons are fun- that's why people get on them in the first place.
by natteringnabob on Jun 21, 2011 10:17 PM EDT up reply actions
If the Yankees won with Bernie's negative WAR dragging them down, maybe it says more about WAR then about Bernie?
Although objectively speaking, he did suck those last few years.
My only problem with moving Jeter to the outfield is this question- Who would he replace? He isn’t better at anything than Gardner, Granderson, or Swisher.
by designatedquitter on Jun 20, 2011 10:04 AM EDT reply actions
After watching Nunez in the field, im fine with Jeter sticking around for a while longer
Derek will never be a utility player, he has too much pride and would retire before it came to that.
Should you choose to test my resolve in this matter, you will be facing a finality beyond your comprehension, and you will not be counting days, or months, or years, but milleniums in a place with no doors.
Yeah, But...
At least Nunez can hit a ball
Jeter will be the starting shortstop through 2013...it's something you'll have to deal with
The more his offense declines the less likely the outfield becomes. If he plays the outfield, he is replacing someone who is significantly better offensively. Also I can’t imagine his defense out there would even be adequate. He’d be the worst starting outfielder this side of Chuck Knoblauch.
As for a utility role, he’s too popular and he makes too much money. It isn’t going to happen. Sure, as the years go by, Eduardo Nunez will play more and more often if he earns the chance, but the Yankees aren’t going to sign a starting shortstop to play in front of Jeter.
The Yankees aren’t going to have any leverage with Jeter until 2014 when they can tell him “hey, you’re free to exercise your option, but we can’t guarantee you a starting job.”
by Let's Talk About Tex Baby on Jun 20, 2011 10:07 PM EDT reply actions
FACT: Everyone on the 40 man roster
is a true Yankee. Who else are they playing for? Smh…
World Series attitude, champagne bottle life, nothing every changes so tonight is like tomorrow night.

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