Taking Depth to Another Level

by Frank Campagnola on Apr 9, 2011 7:46 PM EDT in New York Yankees Analysis

The 2011 New York Yankees have given Minor League contracts to four different starting pitchers this spring. Freddy Garcia and Bartolo Colon broke camp with the big league club, Kevin Millwood was sent to AAA camp to strengthen his arm, and most recently, the Yankees signed Carlos Silva to a Minor League contract.

The Silva signing leaves me scratching my head. I understand that his former pitching coach in Chicago will be his current pitching coach in New York if he ever makes it up to the Bronx, but why are the Yankees making so many signings like these? Insurance is the only reason I can think of.

The Yankees, prior to the Silva signing, had more than enough depth. Bartolo Colon is more than capable of filling in for a spot start. Also, using him for the day would not require the Yankees to cut someone loose from the 25-man roster, while calling someone up from the farm would.

Kevin Millwood would be next in line, but he'll need until early May to get his arm strength up because he missed most of Spring Training. In that scenario, Silva makes some sense, if his arm is ready for 100 pitches. If not, he is in the same boat as Millwood.

There are also plenty of capable arms in Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. Andrew Brackman, Hector Noesi, David Phelps, Adam Warren, and D.J. Mitchell are all currently in the AAA rotation. If need be, one of them could have been called up to make a spot start. Does Cashman really think Carlos Silva would be that much better than one of Brackman, Noesi, Phelps, Warren or Mitchell?

Taking a look at Carlos Silva's Baseball-Reference page will leave nothing to be desired. He hasn't been healthy since 2007, and since then, his ERA+ is 74, 26 points below league average. Granted, in 113 IP last year, his ERA+ was 103. As a fan, would you rather see him on the mound, or would you rather see what one of the AAA kids can do?

One question still remains. Will Silva be taking innings away from the kids at AAA? If he is, I do not approve of this deal. If not, there's nothing wrong with a little extra insurance.

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When you pose the question of “why are the Yankees making so many of these signings?”, the only thing that comes to my mind is insurance.

I agree with you. I don’t like the fact that they are taking away innings from other potential minor leaguers. I think the Yankees are a little panicked on the starting pitching situation still. The major difference between a guy like Silva or Millwood and guys like Noesi, Brackman, Phelps is the fact that they have experience. There is a better chance these guys can be called up and plug a hole on a whim rather than prematurely calling up one of the AAA guys.

I’m listing things the YANKEE MANAGEMENT might be thinking. How I feel is that AAA starters should get a shot… not washed pitchers in their 30s. Taking away innings from minor leaguers defeats the purpose of a minor league system. There is a balance… and the Yankees are teetering it quite a bit.

"We play today, we win today. Das it!"

by Chris McKeown on Apr 9, 2011 7:51 PM EDT reply actions

I agree entirely with your last paragraph.

There are five capable starters in AAA that could easily provide replacement level quality for a day. Is Silva really going to be any better than that? Personally, I highly doubt it.

I believe in the Church of Baseball

by Frank Campagnola on Apr 9, 2011 7:53 PM EDT up reply actions

There is no risk involved with these signings, and the more guys we pick off the scrap heap, the more likely we are to get someone who sticks. There will always be ways for the kids to get their work at AAA, especially when developing the players is more important than winning and losing games.

Maybe some of them get called to the big league pen or do some long relief in the AAA pen, but I don’t think that adding one more veteran is a serious deterrent to anyone’s progress.

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by Lord Duggan on Apr 9, 2011 7:56 PM EDT reply actions

Of course there’s no risk. I understand that completely. But with Millwood, and now Silva, someone, or maybe even two AAA starters will be losing innings at least through May. I just don’t like that idea.

I believe in the Church of Baseball

by Frank Campagnola on Apr 9, 2011 8:01 PM EDT up reply actions

I think that there are plenty of guys like Eric Wordekemper, Kevin Whelan, Lance Pendelton, etc. on Scranton’s roster that can lose their innings in order to keep the guys with a big league future pitching on a solid routine.

Maybe one of the young guys loses a rotation spot, but there’s no reason that they couldn’t stay stretched out pitching long relief until someone is needed in the big leagues. If all that it takes to add depth to the rotation is moving D.J. Mitchell to the pen for a little while, I think that’s well worth it, especially when Mitchell is most likely to contribute out of the pen in the majors anyway.

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by Lord Duggan on Apr 9, 2011 8:07 PM EDT up reply actions

If the Yanks think one of them is destined for the pen, and adding vets to the rotation starts that process, then fine. But, for example, D.J. Mitchell threw 140 innings in ‘09 and then 150 innings in ’10. I’d love to see him top that in ’11

I believe in the Church of Baseball

by Frank Campagnola on Apr 9, 2011 8:12 PM EDT up reply actions

Keeping him as a starter would also make him more attractive as trade bait.

I believe in the Church of Baseball

by Frank Campagnola on Apr 9, 2011 8:13 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, this and what you said above are both true, but I’d say that there are about seven starting pitching prospects higher in the pecking order than D.J.

Banuelos, Betances, Brackman, Stoneburner, Warren, Phelps, Noesi.

And when you consider the fact that we’ve got CC (hopefully), AJ, Hughes, and (hopefully) Nova entrenched in our rotation, the chance of D.J. Mitchell ever getting anything more than a handful of spot starts with the Yankees seems extremely unlikely. However, as bullpens are often fluid and in need of cheap arms, it would be very easy to imagine him making a real contribution there.

Adding a veteran MLB pitcher like Carlos Silva, on the other hand, we’ve got someone who could make in impact in the rotation this season. It’s definitely going to be a minor hit in value for someone like Mitchell, but Hughes is on the brink of needing a DL stint and are we really that sold on Freddy Garcia? The Yankees are already trying to piece together the rotation after CC and AJ and things are only going to get tougher with the grind of the season.

And in addition to that, as high as I am on some of our young guys, I don’t think there’s a single one of them who’s ready to get called up and pitch as of right now. Phelps is probably the closest thing, but he was pretty unimpressive in Spring Training (which admittedly, doesn’t mean much).

If Hughes really does need a stint on the DL, the Yankees might be very pleased to have an extra scrap heap veteran to throw out there.

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by Lord Duggan on Apr 9, 2011 8:26 PM EDT up reply actions

I agree

with pretty much everything you said. However, how many starts would the kids really need to make if Hughes goes on the DL? If its for an extended period of time, then having a Silva type is okay.

But he’s probably 3rd on the chart right now, with Colon and Millwood ahead of him.

However, if Hughes needs the DL, and Garcia turns out to be terrible, then we’ll probably see Colon and Millwood in the rotation. Maybe Silva takes the long man spot?

It seems like a lot of things would have to go badly for Silva to see extended time in the Bronx

I believe in the Church of Baseball

by Frank Campagnola on Apr 9, 2011 8:40 PM EDT up reply actions

Still, you’d rather have the depth. Remember when the Yanks had to rely on starters like Matt DeSalvo, Chase Wright, Jeff Karstens, and Darrell Rasner far too much in 2007? I can’t imagine the pitchers in some parts of the AAA rotation are much bigger prospects than the above pitchers were. Brackman maybe, but the others? Shmeh. They’re no Banuelos/Betances.

Did you know Joe Morgan thinks Cano will win a batting title one day?

by Andrew GM on Apr 9, 2011 9:31 PM EDT up reply actions

Remember that time when Chase Wright let up four consecutive homers to Boston?

"We play today, we win today. Das it!"

by Chris McKeown on Apr 10, 2011 3:02 AM EDT up reply actions

ESPN sure does

Did you know Joe Morgan thinks Cano will win a batting title one day?

by Andrew GM on Apr 10, 2011 9:30 PM EDT up reply actions

When it comes to pitching, you can never have too much

When I first heard about this signing, I hated it. But when reminded that Rothschild was his pitching coach last year when he had a terrific start, it changed my mind. You have to take in account that Colon/Garcia/Millwood/Nova are no sure things and nobody knows how a prospect might fare in the AL East.

Furthermore, they are just signing these guys to minor league deals, so it doesnt hurt if they dont pan out and if they do its only a good thing. You never know what the truth is with Hughes and if he cant go, Yanks are going to go with a bunch of umproven youngsters in the rotation. They tried it in 08 with much more polished spects and it didnt turn out well.

Should you choose to test my resolve in this matter, you will be facing a finality beyond your comprehension, and you will not be counting days, or months, or years, but milleniums in a place with no doors.

by YankeesJets on Apr 9, 2011 7:57 PM EDT reply actions

ugh, meant Yanks wont go with unproven youngsters

by YankeesJets on Apr 9, 2011 7:59 PM EDT up reply actions

No one knows how Silva will respond to the AL East either. Personally, I’d rather let the kids I drafted or signed get their shot if need be.

Yes its a minor league deal, but I don’t want Silva and Millwood taking innings away from the kids currently in the AAA rotation.

And I wasn’t talking long-term. the Yanks opened ’08 with kids. I was only discussing spot starts.

I believe in the Church of Baseball

by Frank Campagnola on Apr 9, 2011 8:04 PM EDT up reply actions

Spot starts are fine but if someone gets hurt and is lost, these kids havent thrown enough innings to take over

If Im Cashman, I go offer Pettitte a blank check right now.Nova might wind up alright, but he doesnt seem quite ready yet. Hughes is a gigantic question mark too. And you still dont know which AJ you are going to get.

by YankeesJets on Apr 9, 2011 8:16 PM EDT up reply actions

It won’t be many innings, and I’m sure if the Yankees need to bump them up to their innings goal for the year, they’ll find a way.

Did you know Joe Morgan thinks Cano will win a batting title one day?

by Andrew GM on Apr 9, 2011 9:32 PM EDT up reply actions

The reason for the signing is summed up by one word...

Uncertainty. Cashman, having lost two pitchers this offseason who were marked down as horses – Lee and Pettitte – and not wanting to push the youngsters into the glare before their time, has hit upon a reasonable solution. Bringing in veterans to supplement what most of us would admit was a less-than-daunting rotation is not only a clever move, but also a necessity. The only starter the Yanks could rely on with any comfort was CC. Burnett was (and still is) a fifty-fifty proposition. Hughes has proven only that he benefitted from pitching for the highest scoring lineup last year. Nova hadn’t pitched past the 6th inning. Joba (possibly Mariano’s replacement, ultimately) was firmly planted in the bullpen. Though some of the youngsters (outside of Hughes and Nova) looked intriguing in the spring, none of them looked ready for the harsh spotlight of the Bronx and certainly not Fenway. Even Hughes and Nova have shied like giddy horses while pitching on Yawkey Way. Can you really feel good about a Yankees rotation that has 3 out of 5 20-somethings pitching? The most talented of the youngsters (the “Killer Bs”) are all innings deprived and practically all of the youngsters need seasoning. I have lost track of who did the great breakdown of the farmhands (Jay Jaffe, maybe?) but if it was to be believed, and I found it very convincing, we don’t have a Doc Gooden wasting away in the minors without reason. The Yankees have learned in the last few years to take it slow and not force young pitchers into situations for which they are not prepared. Think about the year that Hughes and Kennedy were slotted into the rotation. This is smart and ultimately benefits both the team and the player.

T O' NY

by T of NY on Apr 9, 2011 8:05 PM EDT reply actions

You can’t lose what you never had in Cliff Lee. I’m not talking about adding these kids to the rotation right now. All I’m saying is that I don’t think Carlos Silva would be any better in spot starts than Colon or the 5 kids in the AAA rotation.

There’s no problem with depth, but if that depth is going to cut the innings of your prospects, I wont be a fan of it

I believe in the Church of Baseball

by Frank Campagnola on Apr 9, 2011 8:08 PM EDT up reply actions

I dont think they are adding the depth for spot starts though

by YankeesJets on Apr 9, 2011 8:17 PM EDT up reply actions

Pedro wants to make a comeback.

Another potential minor league deal maybe?

by ultimate913 on Apr 9, 2011 8:12 PM EDT reply actions

Joel Sherman says no

Did you know Joe Morgan thinks Cano will win a batting title one day?

by Andrew GM on Apr 9, 2011 9:34 PM EDT up reply actions

so that probably means Pedro's the probable starter on Sunday

Last night, a comedian died in New York. Somebody knows why. Somebody knows

by Rorschach44 on Apr 9, 2011 10:46 PM EDT up reply actions

We're gonna have an awesome AAA team this year.

To the asshat that hit me: thanks for the broken arm. ...Fucker.

by noonoo on Apr 9, 2011 8:17 PM EDT reply actions

The AAA rotation is very good

And personally, I’d like to see what they do. I’d rather they not lose starts/innings to guys like Carlos Silva

I believe in the Church of Baseball

by Frank Campagnola on Apr 9, 2011 8:18 PM EDT up reply actions

Silva is better than Millwood. If Millwood opts out, this works out just fine.

Yes, that is Kyle Kuric

by TheRealSlimShady on Apr 9, 2011 8:23 PM EDT reply actions

Silva>Millwood

+1.

I personally like this acquisition, despite the fact that it takes some innings away from the Yankees AAA rotation. No financial worries with Silva, since the Cubbies are still paying almost all of his salary, and he had an alright performance last season. No risk, potentially decent reward. And I feel like Millwood and Silva won’t both end up getting the call and playing for the Yankees in the big leagues.

by wilsalex on Apr 9, 2011 8:25 PM EDT up reply actions

Carlos Silva’s ERA+ over the last 5 years is 81.
Kevin Millwood’s ERA+ over the last 5 years is 96.

Silva’s ERA+ over the last 2 years is 85.
Millwood’s ERA+ over the last 2 years is 102.

Silva is very below average, Millwood is average.

I believe in the Church of Baseball

by Frank Campagnola on Apr 9, 2011 8:35 PM EDT up reply actions

+1, and Millwood doesn’t get in fights with his teammates

I saw a guy in the subway holding a pamphlet that said Jesus was coming on May 12, 2011. I don't think it will be that early, he would still qualify as a super two, so they need to wait until June to delay his arbitration clock.

by Wraithpk on Apr 9, 2011 9:45 PM EDT up reply actions

Last year, though, there was a very big difference in their performance and it probably had to do with age for Millwood.

Also, Silva didn’t have the problem of throwing 85 MPH.

Yes, that is Kyle Kuric

by TheRealSlimShady on Apr 9, 2011 9:49 PM EDT up reply actions

Silva also has previously been a two-season pitcher

He’d start off great, then just completely fall apart. If he stays true to form, you could ride him for a little while, then DFA.

Usqueadbaugham! Anam muck an dhoul ! Did ye drink me doornail?

by Q-TDSK on Apr 9, 2011 11:10 PM EDT up reply actions

hmmm

thanks for the stats. didn’t realize that there was that much statistical difference between the two of them, in Millwood’s favor. Still higher on Carlos than Kevin though, not sure why, I just feel like he’s the better pitcher at this point in time.

by wilsalex on Apr 9, 2011 8:48 PM EDT reply actions

Stats are convenient

Go by the one year he was with Rothschild, his k/9 rate more than doubled the season before and was the best of his career. His WHIP was the lowest its been since 05, and his ERA+ was 103.

Millwood on the other hand had an ERA over 5, a whip of 1.510 and the highest HR/9 in his career. His ERA+ was 83.

They both are meh, but Silva is coming off a better year and is familiar with our pitching coach.

by YankeesJets on Apr 9, 2011 8:57 PM EDT up reply actions

That could very easily be an outlier. Take a look at the rest of his career. Much larger sample size. Without his 2010, his K/9 for his career is 3.8

I believe in the Church of Baseball

by Frank Campagnola on Apr 9, 2011 9:02 PM EDT up reply actions

and by one year

you mean half a season, because he only threw 113 innings.

I believe in the Church of Baseball

by Frank Campagnola on Apr 9, 2011 9:03 PM EDT up reply actions

you are correct but you cant disregard the difference under Rothschild

Its kinda like when pitchers work under Duncan in St Louis.

by YankeesJets on Apr 9, 2011 9:05 PM EDT up reply actions

How do we know there was really a difference?

113 innings is a very small sample size, especially considering he never came close to a 6 K/9 in his career

I believe in the Church of Baseball

by Frank Campagnola on Apr 9, 2011 9:06 PM EDT up reply actions

Because sometimes a coach can fix a flaw

Its like everybodys infactuation with Long fixing Grandy. Not saying Silva is anything more than a pile of trash, but it seemed like Rothschild has a positive effect on him. Personally if I dont have to see Silva or Millwood wearing the pinsrtipes, I will be a very happy Yankee fan.

by YankeesJets on Apr 9, 2011 9:10 PM EDT up reply actions

Definitely agree with the last sentence. Things would have to go wrong to see Millwood in pinstripes, and things would have to go very wrong to see Silva in pinstripes for an extended period of time.

However, I’ll agree to disagree with you about last year. With 1,241 major league innings under his belt, 113 innings is too small of a sample size for me to make any sort of conclusions.

I believe in the Church of Baseball

by Frank Campagnola on Apr 9, 2011 9:14 PM EDT up reply actions

Not hard to figure out.

This is a rebuilding year. Basically, for the Yanks that means we’re hoping to win 100 games instead of 110.

Phil needs a kick in the ass to get it into gear, Boone Logan is going to need replacing, and the rest of the guys on staff can’t be allowed to get complacent. By loading up the minor league pitching staff, the Yanks are creating a very competitive atmosphere within the system and pushing the guys in the bigs to do their best in order to remain where they are/want to be.

I’m sure we’ll still see plenty of the young guns get their shots and the Yanks will make the playoffs regardless.

by jimitre on Apr 10, 2011 12:35 AM EDT via mobile reply actions

There are typically

A number of players with Major League experience in the high minors across baseball who are filling out rosters. Hell, I caught a Reading Phillies game last year (after D. Brown went to AAA) where Reading trotted out Timo Perez to play RF. When my wife asked me why a guy who played in a World Series 10 years earlier was now spending his summer in AA Reading, I explained to her that a minor league roster is a lot like a cheap hot dog, Sure, there are often some quality cuts of meat that go into a cheap hot dog, but there is going to be some non meat filler. And on a minor league roster there are some guys that the organization has high hopes for and some guys who are there because you have to maintain a full roster. Hence Timo Perez, AA outfielder.

I am not bothered if Silva or Millwood takes innings away from a 27 year old pitcher like Wordkemper, Madrigal, Pendleton or Whelen, a 28 year old like Sisco, a 29 year old like Schmidt or 30 somethings Carlyle or Sanit.
There are 16 pitchers on the Scranton roster. The 8 above are not exactly prospects any more and it would be very bad news indeed if any of them ever had to pitch a lot of important innings for the Yankees. (To be fair, Sisco is left handed. and has some value as long as he has a pulse and a breaking ball)
You sign a Silva and a Millwood in case the guys the organization has high hopes for are not ready or has a groin pull at the moment the parent club has a need for spare arm or two. Maybe if pressed you can catch a break and get a couple of decent starts out of one of them. And you don’t have to worry about hindering development or adversely effecting their confidence if they show up in NY and get shelled. They are, by contractual status, non prospect minor league pitchers, which is a nice way of saying “expendable”.

by Iggy Poptart on Apr 10, 2011 1:39 AM EDT reply actions