Jeter and the small sample size

Hey guys, longtime reader, occasional poster (darn work getting in the way)...  So i was having a conversation with a coworker today (Orioles fan) who was asking me if i was still high on the idea that Jeter would be closer to Jeter of old (pre-2010) versus last year following his not-exactly hot start to 2011... 

Thanks to the always useful fangraph, i did some digging and found some comforting news during his quiet and painful journey to 3,000 grounders hits.  More after the jump

First of all, i think this topic has been beaten to death by everyone, ESPN, us here, ESPN, NY Post, ESPN, online blogs, ESPN... etc...  but i do feel confident that Jeter is actually on the cusp of breaking through and hitting closer to .300 rather than .200

1) Jeter's plate discipline is falling a little short in some areas, but overall is showing improvement from last year.  So far this year he has a 95.5% contact rate within the K-Zone and 67.7% contact rate outside the K-Zone, versus career rates of 89.4% and 60.4% respectively.  The problem of course is that most of his contact, to the tune of 72.2% are groundballs... let that sink in for a minute.  In his career, he has hit at a 57.2% GB rate, and during his worst season ever last year, it was 65.7%.  Anyone who has watched any game this year knows this isnt a surprise or rocket science behind the #1 problem that Jeter needs to fix, his lift on the ball.  Regarding the rest of his plate appearances, its good news, walks are in line with his career at 9%, and K's are a nice and low 8.5%.

2) His BABIP is by far a career low at .255, 100 points below his career average, again due to those darn groundballs.  However, that is at a level that would be as hard to maintain as Austin Jackson's .400 BABIP at the beginning of last year.  Even groundballs have to find holes sometimes...

3) His GB/FB rate is an absurd 5.57 vs a career 2.52 and well above his 3.6 rate last year.

4) His pitchers per PA this season are 3.8, well above his career 2.24.  A notorious first pitch fastball hitter, it might benefit Jeter for seeing extra pitches in order to get his timing down, because right now...

5) He's seeing fastball at a career high rate (70.4%), and seeing them at the highest average speed in his career (91.7 mph).  Pitchers know hes struggling catching up and will keep feeding him fastballs until he proves he can time them well enough to turn a few more of those groundballs into linedrives.

I don't pretend to be an expert in baseball analysis, im sure some of you will find some flaws with my quick analysis but after looking through his 15 games worth of data so far this year, there are a few things i see in store for Jeter:

• He may not like Kevin Long's adjustment to his toe tap, but its killing his timing to do the double toe tap.  His feet arent set when he swings resulting in the more downward, groundball inducing swing.  Since he is swinging as his second toe tap finishes, he cant load any power on his back foot and is driving the ball down instead of up.
• There have been numerous posts on how in general the order of the lineup doesnt really play much affect into the # of runs scored in a game, but with his absurd GB rate right now, if it continues, Girardi is going to have to make the unpopular move and move his down to the bottom 3 so that he isnt wiping out the runner ahead of him, or the runner and himself.
• He has had some solid hits the last few games which lead me to believe the numbers will creep up there, but he may need to swallow his pride and spend some more time dedicated with Kevin Long again (and maybe a few days off) to try and make some more minor tweaks if it continues.