The Granderson Trade
by Meatface on Mar 16, 2011 6:08 PM EDT
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PrintToday Jon Heyman from Sports illustrated tweeted that Austin Jackson is looking like a future superstar and is better than Granderson, the obvious implication being that the Yankees made a mistake in trading Jackson, Ian Kennedy and Phil Coke for Curtis Granderson(who happens to be turning 30 today). Others agree, including many Yankees fans who believe that the Yankees should have kept Jackson and the other pieces of that trade instead of trading them for a center fielder who in 2010 underperformed to say the least. Phil Coke is going to be starting for the Tigers this year and Ian Kennedy was recently named the opening day starter for Arizona and so Arizona and Detroit both seemed to have benefited from the deal. As all of you likely know Austin Jackson finished second last year in the Rookie of the year voting behind Neftali Feliz and his 40 saves and it would have been very cool to have a 2/3 home grown outfield, i think people are missing a big part of this deal.
Before 2010 Austin Jackson had never played a single game in the Majors and while he was hitting .300 in AAA in 2009 that's the minors and we have no idea if those numbers will be anywhere near what a player hits in the majors, so Austin Jackson was a big question mark for the Tigers and while it was very likely that Jackson would hit nobody knew how he would react to the big stage. Another key factor in this is that Austin Jackson is very similar to Brett Gardner in that he is a contact hitter with almost no power, will be good in the outfield and will steal bases.
Austin Jackson generated a 2.9 WAR rating in 2010 and put up the following stats:
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Lg |
G |
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AB |
R |
H |
2B |
3B |
HR |
RBI |
SB |
CS |
BB |
SO |
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2010 |
23 |
151 |
675 |
618 |
103 |
181 |
34 |
10 |
4 |
41 |
27 |
6 |
47 |
170 |
.293 |
.345 |
.400 |
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Brett Gardner in his sophomore year had a 4 WAR year in 2010 and put up these stats
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If you dont feel like following the link the important ones are a BA of .277 an OBP of .383, 47 Stolen bases and 5 Home runs. |
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As you can see while Jackson hit better, Gardner had a better on Base percentage and stole more bases and while Jackson did hit for a better average that could be relate to Gardner's drop off after his wrist injury that he never fully recovered from. Also Jackson and Gardner and Granderson generated the EXACT same fielding stats and so the outfield likely would have been just as good defensively as last year. Gardner is also a better base stealer and while they both strike out a lot Gardner generates a lot of walks while Jackson does not and all of Jackson's stats are from leading off while Gardner generated his mostly in the 9th and 2nd spots.
However Jackson was traded for Granderson and Granderson had the worst year of his career last year with a 2.1 WAR and .247 BA, also he hit 24 HR which considering that he hit 30 in detroit last year is disappointing. However Granderson has refined his swing with Kevin Long and the Yankees will need him to hit like he did in the post season because he will be very important to the Yankees in 2011.
Another part of this trade which is often forgotten in Ian Kennedy one of the Big three pitching prospects of the Yankees with Joba and Hughes was traded for Granderson as well and while he went 9-10 he had a 3.80 ERA in 194 innings and had a 2.7 WAR with a whip of 1.2. However Kennedy did give up 26 Home runs and led the league in Wild Pitches. Coke had a negative WAR season with the Yankees in 2009 and while he improved for detroit I don't particularly miss Coke that much. If you look at in based on WAR then the Yankees gave up 2.1+ .6 + 2.9= 5.6 WAR for Curtis Granderson's 2.5 WAR for $4 million dollars more than Detroit and Arizona had to spend.
Hindsight is 20/20 and overall Arizona and Detroit got the better part of the deal than the Yankees, but both Kennedy and Jackson had break out years and quite frankly neither of these players would have likely fit in New York very well and the Yankees like Granderson especially after the tweaks to his swing. Also there have been a lot of players with great rookie seasons who faltered afterward, Jackson is a great player who is going to be a star, but in the MLB superstar outfielders are guys who hit no less than 20+ Home Runs or steal 40+ Bases and Austin Jackson is not going to do either one of those. Ian Kennedy is going to be a great pitcher who will continue to give up a lot of Home runs, but he is in chase field which is ranked as the 3rd most hitter friendly park in the MLB and he likely would have been better than Javier Vazquez or he could have gotten shelled like he did in 2008. Some people believe that the Yankees lost out on Phil Coke now that he is going to be Starting in detroit, I know he is a lefty but he has only ever started 1 game in AAA and never pitched more than 65 innings in the majors. I don't know if Brian Cashman regrets trading for Granderson but Granderson was an established outfielder, while Jackson was an untested slower Brett Gardner who struck out a lot while Kennedy seemed to have no place with the Yankees in 2010 and he made the decision. Would Yankees fans have been ok with the only home run production in the outfield coming from Nick Swisher? If this trade could be done again I guarantee that the Yankees would not have given as much for Granderson, not because of a lack of production from him but because Jackson would be enough for the deal to happen.
Check out this article and more on my blog A True Yankee
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I stopped at Jon Heyman
he’s a fool.
Last night, a comedian died in New York. Somebody knows why. Somebody knows
Granderson vs. Jackson.
Defense:
Jackson had an ADR of 10 +/- 4 in 1256 innings, which prorated to 150 games is 10.75 +/- 4.25
Granderson had an ADR of 1 +/- 3 in 1120 innings, prorated to 150 games is 1.2 +/- 3.6
Their error margins don’t overlap, so it’s safe to say Jackson is better, by about 9.5 runs.
On offense, Granderson wins by having a 113 wRC+, versus 105 for Jackson. However, there are some things to take note of. First, Granderson has been much better since retooling his swing. Second, Jackson is due for a heavy regression on his babip, so he will likely not have as good results in 2011. When you look at his months in 2010 when he had more realistic babip, his wRC+ in those months were in the 70s and 80s.
Putting the offense in terms of runs, Jackson was worth 6.1 batting runs. Granderson, prorated to 675 PA, was worth 12.2. So, batting and defense combined, Jackson was worth about 3 more runs, which translates to .3 wins. Jackson was a bit more productive, but the peripherals say he won’t beat Granderson in the future.
February 14th, pitchers, catchers, and Messiahs report to Spring Training.
while Kennedy would be nice to have over Garcia or Colon it is nice having one of the top center fielders in the game
and I fully expect Curtis to outplay Jackson this year
CHARLES NOOOOOOOOOO!!!
Kennedy does not
and I seriously doubt ever will impress me much.
Sometimes you can just hear the gears shredding apart in Ricky's head. (Bubbles from the Trailer Park Boys).
by cashman bashman on Mar 16, 2011 11:24 PM EDT reply actions
Kennedy is Ted Lilly 4.0
Although Kennedy may lack charisma on the mound and electric stuff, he’s going to be an MLB grinder. He’ll amass 200 innings and win between 12-15 games every year. I said this several years ago when he and Hughes were put into the rotation that Kennedy would end up the better pitcher. That may turn out to be wrong, but the kid can pitch. I don’t know that he ever would have found success in NYC, but given the right situation, I could see him winning 19-20 a couple of times during his career.
"Baseball is the background music of my life." -George Will
That’s a pretty high ceiling for IPK.
by Scooby Snacks on Mar 17, 2011 10:04 AM EDT up reply actions
He won’t win that many on Arizona…
February 14th, pitchers, catchers, and Messiahs report to Spring Training.
In his career ...
Given the relatively anemic lineup Arizona is running out day in and day out, I’d tend to agree. But he’s still very young and trending upward. I put him in a class of guys like Lilly, Neagle who knew what to do with a baseball. He’ll be a winner. But you are right. As with pretty much any pitcher (but especially with guys with pedestrian stuff) how much he wins will depend largely on the lineup behind him.
"Baseball is the background music of my life." -George Will
Yeah. Hughes is the better pitcher, had the highest run support in the league, and was on a very good team and won 18. It’s going to be very hard for IPK to win 20 on a team who won’t be competing for a while.
February 14th, pitchers, catchers, and Messiahs report to Spring Training.
I see ...
IPK ending up in LA, or SD. I don’t know why (other than he’s from Cali) but in either place — because they are both great pitcher parks, he could do very well for himself.
"Baseball is the background music of my life." -George Will
ollll denny neagle
saw him throw a CG 4 hitter in NY vs the then Tampa Bay Devil Rays
by MichaelGGBGrabow on Mar 22, 2011 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions
I voted "no"
At the time I wouldn’t have done the trade but I always liked Granderson. So although I wasn’t thrilled about it, I could live with it. Then it happened, Jackson excelled and Grandy faltered. IF (Big “if”, see that?) Granderson hits like he did in September, we’ll all forget about this trade. If he repeats last season’s numbers and Jackson improves at all, especially if he cuts down his K rate, this trade will turn out to be a bummer.
I bet it's good to be playing again, huh?
i really still think we gave up next to nothing
phil coke sucks, he flat out isnt any good. i have no problem losing him. ian kennedy pitches in the national league west, which has one good offensive team, and one decent offensive team. its a pitchers league and he would get shelled in the AL east… or the AL for that matter. i have no problem having lost him.
austin jackson strikes out alot. i believe if led the league in strikeouts last season. i think either he is gonna be more patient at the plate or see his average freefall. he doesnt walk enough, i honestly would rather have granderson if you remove now much money each makes. i never really liked the deal, not because i didnt like what we gave up, but i wasnt very impressed with what we got. if granderson hits a little better i will be thrilled, but i am far from upset over this deal.
עם ישראל חי
I hadn't thought about this issue for a while. I read the article and comments above carefully.
A few things stand out-
1) There is a lot of animus towards Phil Coke
2) There is much less towards Kennedy, his worst criticism is his “averageness.”
3) There are a lot of assumptions about Jackson’s future.
I think you won’t really know how good (or bad) this trade was until the end of next (2012) season. Austin Jackson could easily hit for more power as he matures, learn to strike out less, or maintain a very high BABIP because of his speed. He could also become a more all or nothing version of Juan Pierre. We just don’t know.
Granderson, who is 30, is less likely to change his game very much, but if he plays like he did post- Long- swing – intervention, he would be a middle of the order hitter on most teams.
The injection of Coke into the Tiger rotation and the elevation of Kennedy to Diamondback ace says more about the paucity of pitching than it does about the ability of those players.
Still, wait and see, it’s still too early to say for sure.
by designatedquitter on Mar 17, 2011 11:13 AM EDT reply actions
Jackson should have a higher than average babip, his expected rate is around .350, which is Ichiro levels. He will not, however, maintain a .400 babip. If you adjusted his batting average based on his expected babip rate, which is still very high, he would have only hit like .230. There is very strong evidence to suggest that his results in 2010 were not his true talent level, and that he will have negative regression in 2011.
February 14th, pitchers, catchers, and Messiahs report to Spring Training.
I understand that, but if he only strikes out 130 times this year (which is still a lot), that would make up for the decreased BABIP.
He may also develop a better eye and walk more. In other words, his natural progression as a hitter (and he’s only 21 or 22 years old) may compensate for his regression on BABIP.
If he finds a power stroke (even 12-15 home runs), a lower batting average wouldn’t mean that much either. That’s why I think the jury is still out, and has to remain so until we see what kind of player Jackson turns out to be. I think he will be a very good one, a Scott Podsednik- type at a minimum.
by designatedquitter on Mar 17, 2011 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, I would expect him to improve. If his true talent level was .230 last year, I would expect it to be maybe .250 this year. It’s unlikely he’ll beat his xbabip by 50 points again, and he’s just as likely to fall short of it by 50 points and bat .200. The bottom line is that a guy with no power can’t be hitting .250 and striking out that much. There is a reason the Yankees didn’t think his bat was major league ready, and his good fortunes last year have fooled people into thinking it is.
February 14th, pitchers, catchers, and Messiahs report to Spring Training.
Voted no because
Yanks clearly needed RH hitter and starting pitching, not another guy who mashes righties. Coke was basically a player to be named later. I don’t think it was a bad trade as Yanks got somewhat of a known quantity…a guy with power speed and defense and a problem against lefties, vs. a very young possible all-star, a guy that would probably be a 4th starter and a lefty only in the bigs because he’s a lefty. If you told Cashman that Jackson would adapt to NY and could be counted on to produce adequately and play solid D, no way he makes this trade. Yanks desparately needed a defensive outfileder capable of playing every day (don’t forget, Gardner’s name wasn’t exactly written down in ink on the starting lineup last spring, all they could count on was Swisher and a bunch of question marks). Still don’t like grandy but I think I’ll change my answer, Cashman didn’t have a choice, Yanks needed outfielder with experience and talent.
by steelerwheeler on Mar 17, 2011 11:44 AM EDT reply actions
I just don't know how anyone can dislike Granderson.
by WhatwouldJeterdo on Mar 17, 2011 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Personally, or as a player? (I like him both ways, but more as a person).
by designatedquitter on Mar 17, 2011 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions
I guess I could see disliking him as a player if he didn't play for your team.
But I don’t understand disliking him as a player or especially as a person if he’s on the team you like. I’ve just never seen anything from him that seems unlikable.
by WhatwouldJeterdo on Mar 17, 2011 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't understand
anyone hating him as a person. Dude is genuinely a great guy and an ambassador to this sport
I believe in the Church of Baseball
by Frank Campagnola on Mar 17, 2011 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, that's what I meant.
I just don’t see anything about him to dislike unless he doesn’t play for your team, making you dislike him as a player. Otherwise, he seems like a truly great guy that’s easy to root for.
by WhatwouldJeterdo on Mar 17, 2011 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions
you must not have visited Nomaas about a month ago then
CHARLES NOOOOOOOOOO!!!
by Brian5517209 on Mar 17, 2011 7:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Guy plays like he's a rookie
plenty of talent, and shows it from time to time. Dude never, I mean never drives in runner from 3rd with less than 2 out. That’s the sign of someone who’s young and learning or underperforming his talent. I expect more from a strong, fast, 30 year-old lefty, with 5 tools. Much more than .250. Did I say lefty, guy has built in advantage but still is mediocre at plate.
by steelerwheeler on Mar 18, 2011 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions
AJAX can't hit lefties either
he just happens to hit RH.
Last night, a comedian died in New York. Somebody knows why. Somebody knows
This has been beaten way too many times.
But at the time of this trade, Coke had no spot on this team. Kennedy had no spot on this team.
Austin Jackson, best case scenario, would become Curtis Granderson. With the Yankees ability to take on payroll, you make that trade every single time.
Austin Jackson was a nice prospect, and will probably be a nice player. But that trade was essentially Jackson for Granderson. And you do that every time.
I believe in the Church of Baseball
by Frank Campagnola on Mar 17, 2011 1:55 PM EDT reply actions
Ajax was worse against lefties than Granderson last year
.226/.295/.305
vs
.232/.280 /.411
Not a big deal, but worth noting considering how much people scream about Grandy vs LHP.
Strikeouts are boring- Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.
I wouldn;t say it was a bad trade for the Yankees
Another thing people tend to leave out when discussing this trade is that in all likelihood, Austin Jackson wouldn’t have played much for the Yankees in 2010. Brett Gardner had a big spring and a bigger start to the season and odds are he would have won a job. The Yankees weren’t going into the season with both Gardner and Jackson in the outfield so most likely Johnny Damon would have been re-signed or a comparable corner outfielder would have been brought in. I guess the best argument you can make against the deal would be on an allocation of resources basis. The asset of Jackson could have been used in a different trade to acquire either a starting pitcher or, given Gardner’s ability to play center, a LF who hits better than Granderson.
I still support the trade. I have to give Detroit credit, though. They did very well in what they got back for Granderson and Edwin Jackson, mostly because they were able to convince Arizona to give them Max Scherzer.
by Let's Talk About Tex Baby on Mar 17, 2011 4:03 PM EDT reply actions
Grandy showed his talents...
in the latter part of the season leading to the playoffs. I look for a semi-allstar type of year for him.
ITS CALLED DEFENSE! D.E.F.E.N.S.E.! I MAYBE-I MAYBE WRONG...BUT I DOUBT IT!
I voted no
An outfield populated by Austin Jackson and Brett Gradner at the same time is a great idea if you are trying to re-create Whitey Herzog’s Cardinals. Otherwise, not so much.
Gardner probably would have been traded and Damon would have been resigned last season to play left.
I bet it's good to be playing again, huh?
Cashman isn't that dumb
I hope.
Strikeouts are boring- Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.
by CasanovaWong on Mar 20, 2011 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Mark My Words
Austin Jackson will eventually play for the Yankees
Blueshirt Banter - "The Worlds Greatest Entertainers"
Pinstripe Alley - "The Kings of the Ring"
The Phinsider - "As Long as we finish ahead of the Jets, the season is a success"
by The Last Shall Become First on Mar 21, 2011 8:03 PM EDT reply actions
I was initially against trading Austin Jackson...
but look at him. He only hit 5 homeruns last season, he was expected to develop into 30 homer guy, and he didn’t.
Granderson has potential to be a better player for us.
Rex Ryan... I salute you!
lol...
a rookie is expected to develop into a 30HR player and he “didn’t” after one year. That’s gold.
Last night, a comedian died in New York. Somebody knows why. Somebody knows
lmao...
If you watched him play he showcased no power in his bat. Even in the minor league his power decreased. This is the reason why Brain Cashman traded him(which he did say), because he knew he wouldn’t become a power hitter that they wanted him to be.
Carlos Beltran and Curtis Granderson hit 20 hrs their first full seasons in the league. A player who hits 5 home runs will eventually turn into a 30 HR player w/o the need of assistance? I doubt he hits over 13 hrs this season.
Rex Ryan... I salute you!
Granderson was 25 years old his first full year
Carlos Beltran was an elite prospect, way above AJAX’s level.
1 year bub. Stop.
Last night, a comedian died in New York. Somebody knows why. Somebody knows
by Rorschach44 on Mar 25, 2011 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions
Can we give him some time?
he was expected to develop into 30 homer guy, and he didn’t.
You’re going to come to that conclusion after one season?
He may not develop a lot of power, but I think it’s a bit premature to come to this conclusion.
I bet it's good to be playing again, huh?
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