PECOTA evaluation of the Yankees fourth and fifth starter candidates
by Cbeck3 on Feb 9, 2011 8:06 AM EST
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PrintHay tip to Lohud.
• Jay Jaffe used PECOTA to evaluate the Yankees fourth and fifth starter candidates.
While they haven't projected Batolo Colon, this is what they said.
Pitcher AGE HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 GB% ERA WARP/100 Sergio Mitre 30 1.2 2.6 5.3 49.9% 4.67 1.1 Hector Noesi 24 1.3 2.8 6.7 40.5% 4.75 1.2 Freddy Garcia 35 1.4 2.7 5.6 43.8% 4.81 1.2 Dellin Betances 23 1.2 5.3 8.3 42.7% 4.83 1.6 David Phelps 24 1.2 3.3 5.5 46.9% 5.02 1.0 Manuel Banuelos 20 1.2 4.9 7.2 44.4% 5.04 0.9 Ivan Nova 24 1.1 4.0 5.0 49.9% 5.23 0.7 Andrew Brackman 25 1.3 5.2 6.2 48.5% 5.89 0.0
I understood this and prevciously posted a Mitre is a better choice than Nova for fifth starter. I write now to wonder why our PA club has such a low opinion of Mitre. I also wonder why Nova is so well liked. I saw these guys pitch too and didn't like Nova from the start. The way I saw him he consistently missed his spots by a long distance.
Given the numbers, why do we like Nova?
This is another heads up on Noesi. I have not seen him pitch and am dying to. I'd love to see him make the active roster.
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This is why they have scouts
Statistics don’t always tell the whole story. You have to rely on what you see. I watched both Nova and Mitre pitch every inning last season. Mitre never looked confident or comfortable. Nova was confident until runners got on base in the later innings. Then his inexperience showed. Nova has teachable potential. Mitre has none.
PECOTA is not a stat. It’s just a guess on what someone will do that is based on a few factors, but I don’t take them very seriously.
Russell Martin is just like the Jewish Pharisees, trying to keep Jesus down.
Really!?
So you like statistics for analysis but not projection?
Care to explain this position? I thought you were the champion of all things Sabre!
"I’m never really surprised, but I am thrilled sometimes." Joe G. 2010
That's a blockheaded statement.
Strikeouts are boring- Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.
by CasanovaWong on Feb 11, 2011 3:13 PM EST up reply actions
Statistics tell you what happened. Projections say what someone thinks is going to happen based on a certain formula. Some projections are better than others, but they are still nothing more than educated guesses. Anything can happen in a 162 game season. Except the Pirates winning, that can’t happen.
Russell Martin is just like the Jewish Pharisees, trying to keep Jesus down.
The Pirates
are going to the World Series?
So that’s who we’re going to be playing!
There's always next year
Nova and Garcia
you should give us two votes
I R TEH HAX!!1!
I don't know how to make it give 2 votes
"I’m never really surprised, but I am thrilled sometimes." Joe G. 2010
I think I just went to PECOTA and bought a guinea pig to roast
its a delicacy in South America you know. I’m stuffing it with rice and some chorizo too.
Last night, a comedian died in New York. Somebody knows why. Somebody knows
Because PECOTA uses a weighted average and aging curves to predict ERA, but can not detect the context. It expects Mitre to improve because he’s about to turn 30, and puts more weight into his 2010 ERA (3.33, with peripherals saying that his ERA should have been about 5) of pitching in mop up duty, and less weight to when he actually started games in 2009 and posted a 6.79 ERA.
I have no idea why you think Sergio Mitre is anything but terrible, but the fact that he had a low ERA last year in garbage time means less than nothing.
Is Batolo the dude who ate Bartolo?
My weenie is polywampus.( Richard thisle = Dick weed.) What in the fudalumdunges is going on here?
by cashman bashman on Feb 9, 2011 11:16 PM EST reply actions
Nova has good stuff and the potential to be a middle rotation pitcher. Mitre does not have very good stuff, and his ceiling is mop up duty. I don’t know what games you were watching, but Nova was almost unhittable until runners got on base in the fourth inning or later. With more experience, he’ll iron that out.
Russell Martin is just like the Jewish Pharisees, trying to keep Jesus down.
We'll see!
He’ll have to learn to get the ball somewhere near the target. That’s what I saw when watching missing stops will catch up with you, especially as big league hitters get familiar.
"I’m never really surprised, but I am thrilled sometimes." Joe G. 2010
by Cbeck3 on Feb 10, 2011 7:06 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
His command was pretty good until he allowed baserunners. With bases empty, his FIP was 3.5, with a 5.3 k/9 and 1.4 bb/9. With men on base, his FIP jumped to 5.6, and his bb/9 jumped over 7. He just needs to learn to settle his nerves when there are men on base.
Russell Martin is just like the Jewish Pharisees, trying to keep Jesus down.
In honor of this post, here's a picture of former major league infielder Bill Pecota
I’d give about as much credibility to Bill’s ability to project stats as the other PECOTA
by Let's Talk About Tex Baby on Feb 10, 2011 11:36 AM EST reply actions
That must be embarrassing to have your baseball card be a picture of you whiffing
Russell Martin is just like the Jewish Pharisees, trying to keep Jesus down.
Yea WTF?
They couldn’t just have like a little league pose? That’s brutal.
Strikeouts are boring- Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.
by CasanovaWong on Feb 11, 2011 1:56 PM EST up reply actions
None of the above?
I am still holding out hope that we sign Millwood. He would do just fine as a 4th/5th SP, better than the current alternatives. Mitre and Garcia should fight it out for long-man/first to fill in for an injured player (I see them more as Rasner/Small/Moseley types). I wish we’d leave the youngsters (including Nova) in the minors and not rush them. Nova seemed to falter under pressure last year. We throw him into the rotation premature and he implodes, we might set back his progress substantially.
Now, to bring upon me the wrath of PA in my rookie post: Give Joba another shot in the rotation. He earns a spot, we’re looking at Sabathia, Hughes, Burnett, Millwood, Chamberlain. With our offense I’ll take that rotation.
by Ghost_of_Brien_Taylor on Feb 11, 2011 10:57 PM EST reply actions
Millwood's been a terrible pitcher 3 of the last 4 years
Not pretty bad. Not below average. Terrible. The reason he’s not currently on a team is because he still thinks he’s worth $4M or $5M guaranteed. While he’s not very good at keeping men off base or preventing runs from scoring, he is excellent at giving up home runs. If he accepts a minor league deal, I guess we’d have nothing to lose, but there’s nothing that makes him better than what we’ll already have in camp. In fact based on recent results, he’s probably even worse.
by Let's Talk About Tex Baby on Feb 12, 2011 10:02 AM EST up reply actions
Millwood
I agree he is not a front-of-the-rotation guy anymore, but he eats innings, and pitched last summer through a bad forearm strain (9+ERA June and July, 3.78 ERA rest of season, which is consistent with the previous year’s performance). Hopefully being back on a competitive team might help as well.
So is he worth $4 million? Probably not, but I can think of much worse contracts we’ve handed out than $4 million to Millwood for one year.
Since Joba ’aint going to the rotation, I am also pulling for Garcia. Again, would like to keep the youngsters down on the farm and make them force their way into the rotation vice be pushed into it too early.
by Ghost_of_Brien_Taylor on Feb 12, 2011 10:11 PM EST up reply actions
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