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Around SBN: The Most Dangerous Division in Sports

Spring Training is Here. How do you feel about the 2011 Yankees?

Are you on, or are you off the bandwagon? Because this year, we're not making any stops to pick up the wagoners. Get on at George M. Steinbrenner Field, and take it all the way to Yankee Stadium in October. I'd be sure to get that ticket now. 

Everything I have read so far in regards to the Yankees seems like a lot of tickets will be for sale on that wagon. No one is jumping on this year, especially the way they were after the 2009 World Series run. But I ask you this, why is everyone running away?

The most prolific offense in the American League returns in 2011 after leading the AL in runs, OBP, RBIs, and OPS. They have added a catcher who can throw out baserunners in Russell Martin. Mark Teixeira is a great fielder, can easily be expected to improve on his .256/.365/.481 season, and be more of the player we have seen throughout his career. Robinson Cano is the best second baseman in the AL, and in his prime years, we can expect to see Robby put up another excellent year.

Does anybody expect Derek Jeter to be a .270 hitter again? I certainly don't. I saw improvements in Jeter's performance at the plate in September after his day of work with Kevin Long, and I expect him to be back to normal. Jeter will be out to prove his doubters wrong once again, and as I have throughout the entirety of my being a baseball fan, I will put my faith in Derek Jeter. Alex Rodriguez is not going to hit 50 home runs or slug .645 anymore, but he is still among the best third baseman in baseball, and no matter what, I will continue to pencil him in for 30 home runs and 100 RBIs until he proves me wrong. 

The outfield was the strongest part of the 2010 Yankees, headlined by Brett Gardner's breakout campaign. I think we can expect more of the same out of GGBG. A .285/.385/.380 line is not out of reach for Gardner, and let us not forget, his speed and defensive abilities will always be an asset. Along the same lines of Jeter, Curtis Granderson also saw improvements in September after working with Long. His .263/.362/.596 line in September was his best month, and he continued that hot streak into the playoffs, where he absolutely raked. I think we can see Granderson have a 2011 similar to his September 2010 if he keeps his mechanics in check. Not to mention, the Grandy Man's defense isn't too shabby either. Nick Swisher has had two very good seasons with the Yankees, and I see no reason why that should change. 

The rotation is apparently in shambles, but, what's so different in 2011 than in 2010? Our ace in CC Sabathia is back. Phil Hughes had a nice 2010, and I expect him to be even better after adding a full season's work to his belt. But this is where it gets tricky. Last season, the Yankees got all of 3.0 WAR from Andy Pettitte, AJ Burnett, and Javier Vazquez combined. If AJ has a bounceback season, and gives the Yankees a 2.0 WAR year, all the 4th and 5th starters have to do, whoever they will be, is to give the Yankees half a win each to replace last year's back end. I don't think that will be too difficult to do. 

The bullpen is deeper than last year's headlined by the great Mariano Rivera (thank you, Jon Miller). Rafael Soriano is the new set up man, and despite how much money he is making, he's the best one in baseball. The rest of the pen is rounded out by lefty killer Pedro Feliciano, and most likely Joba Chamberlain, David Robertson, Boone Logan, and Sergio Mitre. Not too shabby.

The Yankees were a 95 win team last season, playing for a division championship on the last day of the season. Their only major loss was Andy Pettitte, and he was a horse for this team for years, but in 2010, he was only around for four months. With a bounceback season from AJ, his production can be replaced with ease. And seeing that the back end of the rotation was awful in 2010 (AJ and Javy combined for -0.1 WAR), anything above replacement level is a plus.

This team is primed for another run at a championship, whether the wagoners wagon or the haters hate. So hop on now, because this bus is headed straight for October.

Comment 26 comments  |  3 recs  | 

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I think I'm gonna do a cheesecake dance wearing nothing but moccasins

Last night, a comedian died in New York. Somebody knows why. Somebody knows

by Rorschach44 on Feb 17, 2011 6:58 AM EST reply actions  

I'm torn between being curious as to what that looks like

and horrified at the prospect.

I am a leaf on the wind. Watch me soar.

by noonoo on Feb 18, 2011 2:08 AM EST up reply actions  

+1

March 31st can't come soon enough.

by Chris McKeown on Feb 18, 2011 2:22 AM EST up reply actions  

This

For every action, there is a corresponding over-reaction.

by TheMelkman on Feb 19, 2011 8:14 PM EST up reply actions  

Horrified - no question

I might pitch a fit but I won't put on my brakes. Stand in the Fire.

by MSP Giant on Feb 19, 2011 9:15 AM EST up reply actions  

All our starters not named Sabathia, Hughes, or Burnett combined for just 2 WAR last year. I agree that with improvements from Burnett and Hughes, we are looking to make up 1 WAR from the 4 and 5 starters. I believe Nova can easily surpass that. He was the only starter other than Pettitte from that aforementioned group who had a positive WAR, giving us .4 wins in 7 starts. Projecting that out to 32 starts would give him 1.8 wins, and I actually think he will be better this year than last, so 2+ wins is a possibility. As long as the fifth starter stays in the positives, we could match our starter WAR pretty easily.

February 14th, pitchers, catchers, and Messiahs report to Spring Training.

by Wraithpk on Feb 17, 2011 10:15 AM EST reply actions  

Well cashman said int he beginning of the offseason our priority was pitching…and in that aspect the team failed. i’m looking forward to the offense..and hoping for a mid season pitching deal

by lololol on Feb 17, 2011 11:05 AM EST reply actions  

they only failed

if they said they wanted to get “excellent” pitching. They did get lots of pitching, but it was more to force a competition to discover who really is the best of what’s available (between the Yankees minor leaguers, Garcia, Colon, and Mitre).

I’m not worried, but I also don’t live and die with the team, even though it’s my biggest sports fandom (well, pretty much my only sports fandom, followed distantly by the NY Giants).

by phonty on Feb 18, 2011 3:29 AM EST up reply actions  

rec'd

although I’m not a huge fan of RBI or bating average, i see why you used them where you did

I R TEH HAX!!1!

by Brian5517209 on Feb 17, 2011 10:48 PM EST reply actions  

obviously they don't tell the whole story

but there’s nothing wrong with using them

I believe in the Church of Baseball

by Frank Campagnola on Feb 18, 2011 1:21 AM EST up reply actions  

Thr same way I feel

at the beginning of every season; Optimistic with the feeling we’re going to win the World Series, no matter what team we field.

There's always next year

by david d on Feb 18, 2011 2:02 AM EST reply actions  

Well, it’s the first time in many, many years (probably going all the way back to the early 90s and the end of what I tend to think of as the Dark Age… that unhappy stretch where we NEVER made the playoffs) where I don’t really see us as being the favorite to win the division—but I think we’ll be better than many people seem to think. Yes, we’ve got a lot of uncertainty in the back end of the rotation, but I think Boston’s rotation has its own back-end issues lurking. If we stay healthy, 95 wins again, at least the wild-card, and as good a chance as anybody else in the playoffs. Boston may be being painted as the Death Star of baseball this year, but hey, even the Death Star had that nasty, problematic exhaust port issue…

Farewell and thanks to #46.

by Yankee Frankee on Feb 18, 2011 7:17 PM EST reply actions  

It is early, but

I am cautiously optimistic that the big three pitchers will be OK. Also that the 4 & 5 starters will keep Yanks in games enough to get to the trade deadline.

I am cautiously optimistic that Martin will hold up until July when Montero can become the starter.

I am cautiously optimistic that the outfield will play as well as last year. While there is room for improvement – esp in Granderson – I will be surprised to see it. Not sure why I feel that way.

The bullpen will be lights out. Innings 7,8 & 9 will be goose eggs. Robertson will take off and really establish himself.

What could derail Yanks? CC gets hurt. Posada becomes a distraction. The outfield slumps.

But…..it is early. Optimism reigns.

I might pitch a fit but I won't put on my brakes. Stand in the Fire.

by MSP Giant on Feb 19, 2011 9:21 AM EST reply actions  

Going into the year..

I haven’t been this down since 2007. We added very little to our biggest weakness (although no one could anticipate both Pettitte retiring and Lee taking less money in Philly) and are now stuck between Freddy Garcia and Ivan Nova for our 4 and 5 rotation spots. Our best players are getting older every year (including Tex’s drop off last year). We improved our bullpen but is anyone sure that our OF’s are going to hit at all this year? Meanwhile our main rival got significantly better with offseason acquisitions and they won’t have as many injuries as they did last year on average.
I have a Friday package in the bleachers but don’t really look forward to it i’m sad to say….

by JerseyGuy77 on Feb 19, 2011 12:50 PM EST reply actions  

Enjoy those tickets...

It’s been a long time since I lived close enough to attend Yankee home games. You should enjoy them regardless of the the outlook this year, which is better than you suggest.

by CA_Yankee_Fan on Feb 22, 2011 11:50 PM EST up reply actions  

Actually I'm quite optimistic

This is much the same team as last year. Injuries reduced the effectiveness of GGBG, Tex, Arod and Posada. Burnette and Jeter had down years from which we can hope for a rebound. We lost Pettitte and Javy V but improved the bullpen and hope to improve the catching. I do not think this team is worse than last year. I projected us at 96-66 in a previous post based on estimating runs scored vs runs allowed.

I am very interested to see our young pitchers in spring training and the young catchers.

Although Boston may be better, I can see an arguement that they are not that much better. They added two great hitters who are both very good defensively, but they lost two great hitters one of whom was very good defensively. They are depending on bounce back years from players who were hurt. They have a lot that could go wrong. Still the year is more fun if they’re in the hunt. I still bet even money our 162 game record beats theirs.

Tampa looks to me like they lost a lot. For them to be in the hunt their youngsters have to play very well. We’ll see.

"I’m never really surprised, but I am thrilled sometimes." Joe G. 2010

by Cbeck3 on Feb 19, 2011 1:03 PM EST reply actions  

Me too

I agree with you overall. Personally, I’m surprised more people aren’t talking about the question marks on the back end of the Boston rotation. That’s not to say the attention on the Yankee 3-5 starters is misplaced…people should be talking about them…I know I am. But Boston has a weakness there too.

by CA_Yankee_Fan on Feb 22, 2011 11:57 PM EST up reply actions  

I agree. No matter what anyone says, the Yankees are good. I still think the Red Sox are better, but the Yankees are right there. I have no concern about Tampa. In other divisions, I like Chicago and Oakland, but they won;t get far.

by Marisa Ingemi on Feb 20, 2011 1:08 PM EST reply actions  

I think people are giving the Red Sox too much credit

The Yanks have a damn good lineup, and excellent bullpen. I do understand the concerns about the rotation, however, I think the addition of Larry Rothschild will be a significant positive impact on Phil Hughes and AJ Burnett.

Yanks will win division.

The Bad Guy

Be sure to watch CHUCK Monday nights at 8pm on NBC!!! Crazy episode next week!

by Dewey Finn on Feb 26, 2011 3:19 PM EST reply actions  

Playoff bound for sure

It’s all going to boil down to whether our top three starters can outduel Boston’s top three in the American League championship. One of these teams is going to be the wild card and if it’s the Yanks, they’ll probably play the Twins since they do every year anyway. And if a fourth starter is needed, a patchwork committee is in place to move on against the Phillies.

by torrebook on Feb 26, 2011 5:11 PM EST reply actions  

Rose coloreed glasses - maybe Yankee colored glasses

Please note, I am a Yankee fan. This is not a troll post.

I think you yu give Jeter and A-Rod to much credit. Given their age they are just not not what they were. Jeter may not do that much better than last year and neither he nor A-Rod are really great defenders anymore. That has a multiplier effect in that they play beside each other on the infield and means that the Yankee pitchers will give up more base hits and runs

This is compounded further in that the Yankee catchers will effectively allow many singles to become doubles because they could can’t stop a running game.

The roration is terrible. Phil Hughs is a #4 starter on lots of teams. The worst move of the off season was after Cliff Lee signed with the Phillies that the Yankees didn’t take a low cost potentially high return flyer on someone like Brandon Webb. But they needed to do that even if they signed Lee.

The Yankees will win games this year the way the Texas Rangers used to with scores of 8 to 6 but even if that get them to the playoff it doesn’t get them past the 1st round

That was the good news.

Now what happens if C.C. gets hurt? The Yankees are one major injury from 4th place

I hope I am wrong

Just a genius at large

"You can make something fool proof but not damn fool proof"
Dwight Eisenhower

by Cliff Phelps on Mar 2, 2011 9:17 PM EST reply actions  

I don’t disagree with everything you’ve said. We all know Jeter and Arod are below average on defense. Jeter had his worst season of his career, but let’s give him some time before we say he is done. He’s only one year removed from one of the best seasons of his career. Arod continues to knock in 30/100, and I’ll pencil him in for that until he does otherwise. Plus, he is in better shape this year, so I think he’ll be better offensively and defensively than he was last year. Hughes is a solid #3 starter, and maybe he’ll be better in his second year starting. AJ Can’t be much worse, and I don’t think he will be. And btw, the low risk guy Cashman got was Garcia. We’ll be fine.

February 14th, pitchers, catchers, and Messiahs report to Spring Training.

by Wraithpk on Mar 2, 2011 11:27 PM EST reply actions  

Reply failure...

February 14th, pitchers, catchers, and Messiahs report to Spring Training.

by Wraithpk on Mar 2, 2011 11:28 PM EST up reply actions  

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