Pinstripe Alley Roundtable Discussion Part II: Acquistions, The Payroll, And More
by Brandon C. on Dec 9, 2011 9:30 AM EST
in New York Yankees Analysis
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PrintAs the Winter Meetings began, 3460Kuri, Travis G., and I (Brandon C.) decided to discuss many different topics about the off-season. The roundtable discussion is a two part series, with the first part being posted yesterday.
Q: Would you make a move for Matt Thornton?
3460Kuri: No. Thornton's a fine reliever, but with Mariano Rivera, Rafael Soriano, David Robertson, and Joba Chamberlain already in the fold, I'm not sure that it makes sense to acquire another high-profile, high-cost reliever. I know some fans, and probably some in the front office, are thinking about "the heir to Mo" but let's get to 2013 first.
Travis G: Probably not. The bullpen was excellent this year and Thornton will be 35 next season. At best he would be the "6th Inning Guy."
Brandon C.: That's a definite no. Same reasons as the other two listed, it would simply be a bad move.
Q: How would you try to create roster/payroll flexibility as the players who signed long term contracts enter their mid-to-late 30s?
3460Kuri: First, I'd get a suitable utility infielder who can play a passable SS and 3B while not embarassing himself at the plate. Second, I'd get off the fence with Jesus Montero and stop calling him a DH. The Yankees need to keep DH open for their older players, and so Montero either needs to catch, or the Yankees need to trade him, ASAP. Last, I'd continue to stay away from signing non-elite free agents to long-term deals. 2015/2016 already carries the potential of a roster logjam, and it's one thing to throw Cliff Lee into the mix for that season, and quite another to throw CJ Wilson into it.
Travis G: This is like that joke about "How does a dentist work on an alligator? Carefully." There's no easy answer. The good news is that only one pitcher is part of that group (CC Sabathia), and he should continue to be excellent for a long time. The killers, I think, will be A-Rod and Tex. If it gets so bad that they can't play their positions or even hit anymore, the Yanks are at least in the fortunate situation where they could straight up release them. They wouldn't want to pay a guy sitting at home or playing for a competitor, but it might be better than the alternative (taking up a roster spot when superior options are available).
Brandon C: I basically agree with 100% of what Kuri and Travis said. The Yankees need to avoid long, expensive deals, unless they are for certain young, effective players. No mistakes can be made.
Follow after the jump for more!
Q: What kind of seasons do you expect from A-Rod and Jeter?
3460Kuri: Realistically, probably something similar to what they did in 2011, with hopefully 130 games for A-Rod. I think that privately, if they both put those numbers up, the Yankees front office would be thrilled.
Travis G: I expect (and have to hope) A-Rod bounces back from a disappointing 2011: Think ~.280/.380/.500. Jeter should pretty much duplicate this season, with an OPS+ between 95-100, and that's fine considering he'll be 38.
Brandon C: I expect A-Rod to play in ~120 games, hit ~.295/.395/.515, and breakthrough in the playoffs if the Yankees make it. Jeter will struggle in the beginning again, and improve as the season goes on. Think ~.280/.340.
Q: A darkhorse move this offseason?
3460Kuri: I just don't see one. There doesn't appear to be a team in salary-dump mode that's shopping talented players (i.e. Curtis Granderson, Nick Swisher), and there doesn't really appear to be any elite talent on the trade market at the moment. If I have to pick something, I'll say Tim Lincecum, just because his salary will probably bring the cost in prospects down to the point that the Yankees are willing to pay it, and his two remaining years of arbitration decrease the urgency of signing him to a long term contract.
Travis G: * In the interest of being bold, I'll say the Yanks trade A.J. Burnett along with a few prospects (something like Adam Warren, Hector Noesi and/or Mason Williams) to the Cubs for Matt Garza.
Brandon C: Yankees trade for a starting pitcher that has not been rumored to be available yet. At all. No clue who, but someone completely out of the blue.
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I could see a deal with Oakland, a team that needs bats, with Nunez and Montero going there for real arms.
Since the Yankees appear to have acquired Nakajima, either intentionally or accidentally, Nunez would be expendable. Gio Gonzalez looks like a logical target. Perhaps AJ Burnett (with a salary ‘consideration’) and a bat for another young arm.
I can’t see spending a fortune to post and then sign Yu Darvish in this bargain bin atmosphere, especially since it looks like the Red Sox can’t afford him either. At the rate things are proceeding, or not procedding, a re- up for Colon even looks more likely.
by designatedquitter on Dec 9, 2011 11:11 AM EST reply actions
Early indications are that Nakajima isn’t going to sign with the Yankees to be a utility player.
by Scooby Snacks on Dec 9, 2011 11:20 AM EST up reply actions
Why is everyone so down on Colon?
He put up a great first half and showed the fastball was still there. It was clear he was gassed for the second half. I’d roll the dice for him on another 1-yr. deal and if he stinks the place up then just cut ’im.
Live every week like it's shark week.
the Giants aren't going to trade Lincecum
They are telling people like Cody Ross to go away, and intending to start an outfield of Melky/Pagan/Schierholtz to save money to be able to pay the arb awards for their pitchers. Their big decision now is whether to keep Jeff Keppinger or Mike Fontenot, so that gives you the idea of the position player talent level they are interested in.
Lincecum has explicitly said several times he doesn’t want to play in NY, but he obviously wouldn’t be the first player in history to change his mind.
The above comment is not affiliated with the San Francisco Giants, is not based on a secret source of team information, and may contain personal opinion.
"I'll never forget San Francisco and all those beautiful moments."- Andres Torres
Last I heard was that they were trying to sign Lincecum and Cain to long-term extensions.
by Scooby Snacks on Dec 9, 2011 12:06 PM EST up reply actions
And failing. Lincecum’s agent repeatedly said they’ll only do one year or arb deals. Not much better luck with Cain so far but this is his last arb year so I assume (heh) they’ll prioritize him.
The above comment is not affiliated with the San Francisco Giants, is not based on a secret source of team information, and may contain personal opinion.
"I'll never forget San Francisco and all those beautiful moments."- Andres Torres
by natteringnabob on Dec 9, 2011 12:51 PM EST up reply actions
what is a nattering boob anyway?
Last night, a comedian died in New York. Somebody knows why. Somebody knows
See
Agnew, Spiro “nattering nabobs of negativity”
"I don't want one of those guys who'll drive in two but let in three every game." Casey Stengel
by tnredneckyankeesfan on Dec 9, 2011 2:41 PM EST up reply actions
Rays Lock Up Matt Moore
$14m over the next five years…with club options the contract could be worth $37.5MM over eight years.
WTF?! The Rays have to be drugging players and their agents.
They’re locking up while they’re young and naive and before Boras recruits them because he sees a big payday coming for himself.
Romine!
Great thing about these contracts which isn’t often mentioned is that these young guys (with no injury history) are easy and cheap to insure. The Rays aren’t taking much risk here.
by Scooby Snacks on Dec 9, 2011 12:14 PM EST up reply actions
well, it's a smart move and he looks like he's the real deal
but, let’s not forget the guy has barely seen any ML action, so it’s not surprising he would jump on that
by MichaelGGBGrabow on Dec 9, 2011 12:48 PM EST up reply actions
who's their GM, Bernie Fine?
Last night, a comedian died in New York. Somebody knows why. Somebody knows
Colin Curtis DFA’d
Rec Generating Database
Jedi Master A-Rod is a poster on Pinstripe Alley. He can be reached by clicking the "Reply" button below his comments.
by Jedi Master A-Rod on Dec 9, 2011 12:08 PM EST reply actions
They need to make room for Sergio Mitre.
by Scooby Snacks on Dec 9, 2011 12:15 PM EST up reply actions
I blame Barn.
"in order that you will write correctly of wat you really see if you dint go around with your eyes shut"
Cricket blog?
that interview was too hot for the stuffed suits at 161st and River
But White CC tells it like it is.
by long time listener on Dec 9, 2011 12:40 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Kuroda related question
All the talk is the Yanks have the inside track due the Russell Martin connection.
Has Martin been offered arbitration? Because they haven’t resigned him yet, and I can’t find any info anywhere about it. Anyone know?
They have until Dec. 12 to offer him arbitration and are most likely currently in talks with Martin to avoid the whole process.
by Scooby Snacks on Dec 9, 2011 12:34 PM EST up reply actions
Look for all remaining free agent pitchers now to be linked with the Yankees for negotiating leverage.
by Scooby Snacks on Dec 9, 2011 12:38 PM EST up reply actions
I like the idea of Kuroda
but I’d rather let him go if it means Russ would go with him
Last night, a comedian died in New York. Somebody knows why. Somebody knows
If A-Rod .3/.4/.5’s I’d be shocked.
Contributing writer for Pinstripe Alley.
Follow me on Twitter @frankiecamp48
by Frank Campagnola on Dec 9, 2011 1:30 PM EST reply actions
I think he'll be a tad below
His line at the all star break this year seems a good bet for his season line…assuming he stays healthy.
how about if he high.2/high.3/high.4s?
I’d take that in a heartbeat.
by long time listener on Dec 9, 2011 1:55 PM EST up reply actions
I would obviously take it, I’m not not sure how likely it is. I just thought Brandon’s projection was very aggressive.
Contributing writer for Pinstripe Alley.
Follow me on Twitter @frankiecamp48
by Frank Campagnola on Dec 9, 2011 2:40 PM EST up reply actions
That's the Skittles talking
"I don't want one of those guys who'll drive in two but let in three every game." Casey Stengel
by tnredneckyankeesfan on Dec 9, 2011 2:47 PM EST up reply actions
You’d have to go back to 2009 for the last time he slugged higher than .515, 2009 for the last time he had anything close to a .395 OBP, and 2008 for the last time he had a batting average in the .295-.305 range.
Taking in another surgery and adding two or in the batting average category three seasons (plus three more years on his age), I just think it’s extreme wishful thinking.
Could A-Rod do it? No idea. I wouldn’t put it by him, by the percentages certainly aren’t in his favor.
Contributing writer for Pinstripe Alley.
Follow me on Twitter @frankiecamp48
by Frank Campagnola on Dec 9, 2011 2:45 PM EST up reply actions
Before injury he was at .3/.37/.5
I too think Barnd was a little too aggressive but I wouldn’t be surprised if he matched what he did last year.
“Before injury.” We’ve had this discussion. With another year under his belt and another major surgery, is it really likely to expect him to be the same? And even expect some improvement?
Contributing writer for Pinstripe Alley.
Follow me on Twitter @frankiecamp48
by Frank Campagnola on Dec 9, 2011 2:56 PM EST up reply actions
Barn’s projection would put him ~ 140-150 OPS+, and that’s putting him at 2008 levels.
Contributing writer for Pinstripe Alley.
Follow me on Twitter @frankiecamp48
by Frank Campagnola on Dec 9, 2011 3:02 PM EST up reply actions
I don't think so
Maybe Barnd was a little aggressive, but A-Rod was doing quite well before his injury. Obviously the key to him is staying healthy but I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if he slugs over .500.
I know he’s getting older and the trend has been going down, but it’s reasonable to expect better than what he did in 2011 obviously. The question is how much. And simply based on the fact that he’s the best player of this generation, I wouldn’t put it by him. Even if he is older.
I’d predict around .280/.350/.490 for him, with the HR and RBIs depending on the amount of games he plays in. I just wouldn’t be surprised at all if he did better.
I'll do whatever it takes to win games, whether it's sitting on a bench waving a towel, handing a cup of water to a teammate, or hitting the game-winning shot.- Kobe Bryant
A.J. Burnett's only fan!
I think your projection is very good, and extremely realistic. I would be a little surprised if he did better, because that probably means he stayed healthy.
Like I said to Brian above:
"Before injury." We’ve had this discussion. With another year under his belt and another major surgery, is it really likely to expect him to be the same? And even expect some improvement?
Contributing writer for Pinstripe Alley.
Follow me on Twitter @frankiecamp48
by Frank Campagnola on Dec 9, 2011 2:58 PM EST up reply actions
“Before injury.” We’ve had this discussion. With another year under his belt and another major surgery, is it really likely to expect him to be the same? And even expect some improvement?
It’s certainly not reasonable to expect him to be who he’s been his entire career, which is an MVP candidate and first ballot hall of famer. But it’s definitely reasonable to expect better than 2011, where he only played 99 games and was either hurt or playing hurt the entire second half. Unless he has another major surgery (which I don’t think is likely).
A lot of this depends on Joe Girardi’s handling of him. I’d want him to have as much rest, DH days as he needs. Whatever it takes to keep him healthy and fresh. Unlike this postseason, next postseason (and they’ll be in it- Selig has assured them of that) I want him as fresh as possible.
I'll do whatever it takes to win games, whether it's sitting on a bench waving a towel, handing a cup of water to a teammate, or hitting the game-winning shot.- Kobe Bryant
A.J. Burnett's only fan!
I’m talking about improvement over pre-injury A-Rod in 2011. I think it’s very likely he improves over his 2011 season (how much he improves is directly linked to his health), I just don’t think it’s likely for him to improve over his pre-injury numbers after another surgery, thumb issues, and getting a little older.
Contributing writer for Pinstripe Alley.
Follow me on Twitter @frankiecamp48
by Frank Campagnola on Dec 9, 2011 3:04 PM EST up reply actions
I'd be surprised if the thumb is a problem
Unless he re-injures it… I mean, it’s just a thumb. I’d think an entire offseason should heal it completely. The knee and hip are different because he had surgery, and that I suppose we just have to hope Joe handles him well and hope for the best.
I think slightly better than 2010 is a reasonable projection, where he didn’t really catch fire power-wise until the end of the season and had a lower BA/OBP than we’re used to. If he has 2009 I won’t be surprised. If he has 2008 then I’ll be a little surprised, and if he ever repeats 2007 I’ll be convinced that the man is god.
I'll do whatever it takes to win games, whether it's sitting on a bench waving a towel, handing a cup of water to a teammate, or hitting the game-winning shot.- Kobe Bryant
A.J. Burnett's only fan!
In 2008 he led the league in slugging. You’d be “a little surprised” if he did that? Like I said, the AL was a hitter’s environment in 2008. I’d be way more than surprised to see him put up 2008 numbers, so if he ever does put up 2007 numbers again then I will concede and will give honorary baseball-god status.
I would be very happy if the Yankees got a mixture of 2010 and 2011 production out A-Rod.
I think a fair projection for A-Rod is about ~120-130 games, a .275 batting average, a .365 OBP, and a ~.490 slugging.
Projecting any higher would be a little much in my opinion, especially looking at his 2010 and 2011 stats.
Contributing writer for Pinstripe Alley.
Follow me on Twitter @frankiecamp48
by Frank Campagnola on Dec 9, 2011 3:16 PM EST up reply actions
If he does a little better, like adding ~.10 points to each category, I’d be mildly surprised. Add ~.20 points to each, and I’d be very surprised.
Any higher and we’re talking about an MVP-type year, and I’d be really, really, really surprised.
Contributing writer for Pinstripe Alley.
Follow me on Twitter @frankiecamp48
by Frank Campagnola on Dec 9, 2011 3:19 PM EST up reply actions
I'd love it
Like I said, if he goes back to MVP form I’d be convinced he’s a god.
Though it was most recently in the first couple months of 2011 when he looked like a possible MVP player, so you never know. But the only MVP I can see him winning is if/when he catches fire in an ALCS or World Series and hits 5 home runs in a week. And honestly, those MVPs mean more to me than the regular season ones anyway.
I'll do whatever it takes to win games, whether it's sitting on a bench waving a towel, handing a cup of water to a teammate, or hitting the game-winning shot.- Kobe Bryant
A.J. Burnett's only fan!
Look at your projection and then look at Brandon’s. There’s big differences there.
.15 points in batting average, .45 points in OBP, and .25 points in slugging.
So if you really believe your projection, you believe Brandon was more than “a little aggressive.”
Contributing writer for Pinstripe Alley.
Follow me on Twitter @frankiecamp48
by Frank Campagnola on Dec 9, 2011 3:00 PM EST up reply actions
I'll give you that
Maybe more than a little aggressive. But I wouldn’t be shocked.
I'll do whatever it takes to win games, whether it's sitting on a bench waving a towel, handing a cup of water to a teammate, or hitting the game-winning shot.- Kobe Bryant
A.J. Burnett's only fan!
Also, I missed a very important piece. It hasn’t been a hitter’s environment since 2009, so expecting him to hit like it was 2008, when that year was a hitter’s environment, makes it even more unlikely.
Contributing writer for Pinstripe Alley.
Follow me on Twitter @frankiecamp48
by Frank Campagnola on Dec 9, 2011 3:07 PM EST up reply actions
Hasn't been?
But ESPN says it’s an unfair bandbox!!!!!!!!
I'll do whatever it takes to win games, whether it's sitting on a bench waving a towel, handing a cup of water to a teammate, or hitting the game-winning shot.- Kobe Bryant
A.J. Burnett's only fan!
Lol, I was talking about the AL in general, not YS.
Contributing writer for Pinstripe Alley.
Follow me on Twitter @frankiecamp48
by Frank Campagnola on Dec 9, 2011 3:10 PM EST up reply actions
Or the league in general
Still don’t really know if it’s just the pitchers being better or the hitters being worse. Or some other factor.
I'll do whatever it takes to win games, whether it's sitting on a bench waving a towel, handing a cup of water to a teammate, or hitting the game-winning shot.- Kobe Bryant
A.J. Burnett's only fan!
Chances of getting rid of irritating announcer Sterling...
His act is tireless in the extreme. Would love to see fan backlash and firing.
not this year
They just renewed CBS for another year. Maybe I’m missing him because it’s winter, but I’m not that down on Sterling at the moment. Besides, he’s in his 70s. You gotta figure he’s going to retire fairly soon.
by long time listener on Dec 9, 2011 2:52 PM EST up reply actions
You're right
about this year. If another station or radio network replaces WCBS, the maybe he’s gone. I’d rather they get rid of Suzyn.
"I don't want one of those guys who'll drive in two but let in three every game." Casey Stengel
by tnredneckyankeesfan on Dec 9, 2011 2:59 PM EST up reply actions
Montero asap
Its time to decide what to do with Montero, Hitting is his only plus sign and A-Rod can be our DH. Lets try Nakajima at 3b and keep A-Rod off the field. I would rather see us get Oswalt and forget Colon. It seems like we have fallen in love with Gardner and Swisher but do believe we could make a trade for a good pitcher. I think at this point perhaps Yu Darvish might be our best bet since we have nothing behind CC and maybe Nova , LETS DO SOMETHING, or it is going to be a very long season.
Why would we get A-Rod off the field the year after he had his best defensive season since he was a shortstop?
I'll do whatever it takes to win games, whether it's sitting on a bench waving a towel, handing a cup of water to a teammate, or hitting the game-winning shot.- Kobe Bryant
A.J. Burnett's only fan!
Sometimes, sure
Full time DH? No. He’s an excellent third baseman and I want him in the field. He saved the Yankees ass numerous times this season with his defense.
I'll do whatever it takes to win games, whether it's sitting on a bench waving a towel, handing a cup of water to a teammate, or hitting the game-winning shot.- Kobe Bryant
A.J. Burnett's only fan!
DO SOMETHING JUST BECAUSE
Rec Generating Database
Jedi Master A-Rod is a poster on Pinstripe Alley. He can be reached by clicking the "Reply" button below his comments.
by Jedi Master A-Rod on Dec 9, 2011 3:30 PM EST up reply actions
we just won the most games in the league with this team
And only the Angels have gotten better – and that in part at the expense of their rivals, the AL champs. I wouldn’t mind another pitcher if the price is right, but doing something for the sake of doing something doesn’t make sense. We’re going to compete and most likely make the playoffs again next year, so unless there’s a viable suggestion that improves the team, let’s stand pat.
by long time listener on Dec 9, 2011 3:38 PM EST up reply actions
I’m not willing to bank on the Red Sox collapsing 2 years in a row. They should be back to form next year.
The Savior has come, and he is glorious. #63
Oh man would I love to see them collaspe two years in a row!
"WHO WOULD LEAD?! THE CLOWN?!"
by I'mGivingYouARaise on Dec 9, 2011 4:00 PM EST up reply actions
From your keyboard to God's ears
"I don't want one of those guys who'll drive in two but let in three every game." Casey Stengel
by tnredneckyankeesfan on Dec 9, 2011 4:07 PM EST up reply actions
they've gotten worse, so far
And two of their starters from last year (Lacey and Dice-K) are out, though that may be a plus for them. The also lost Papelbon. I think they’ll contend, and they probably have a trick or two up their sleeve, but we were better than them last year, and I see no reason to think we can’t be again, subject to the vagaries of life in Major League Baseball.
by long time listener on Dec 9, 2011 4:05 PM EST up reply actions
Plus you have to factor in the Rays as well
If Matt Moore is as good as they say he’ll be, then the Rays have a young, talented rotation.
"WHO WOULD LEAD?! THE CLOWN?!"
by I'mGivingYouARaise on Dec 9, 2011 4:10 PM EST up reply actions
the Rays look good, too
But they haven’t gotten much better than they were at the end of the year. I predict it’ll be a three-team race in the AL East again, with the Blue Jays disappointing and the Orioles being a non-factor/laughing stock.
by long time listener on Dec 9, 2011 4:26 PM EST up reply actions
I think so, too
Only much better. Bobby V will get the credit, but he’ll have nothing to do with it. They were embarrassed by their collapse. They were embarrassed by their actions being made public. I think they’re going to be a lot more professional and out to prove themselves and they’ll be determined to do so.
Romine!
A-Rod's an excellent 3B
I’d rather him play 3rd then nearly anyone in the league. Having him DH all the time is incredibly dumb
Last night, a comedian died in New York. Somebody knows why. Somebody knows
Caption:
“So yeah, my centaur painting is about this big!”
The Savior has come, and he is glorious. #63
So in MLB 2K ’11, I traded for Gio Gonzalez, and Julio Teheran and Derek Lowe. Lowe was really good an dTeheran had a nice rookie season.
Hughes was afwul and was in Triple-A by mid-May. Somehow, the offense was terrible, and despite a team ERA under 4, the team finished 81-81, obviously missing the playoffs.
Apparently, simulating makes Robby Cano terrible. Tex sucked too.
Contributing writer for Pinstripe Alley.
Follow me on Twitter @frankiecamp48
by Frank Campagnola on Dec 9, 2011 4:13 PM EST reply actions
Videos does that sometimes...it's funny
Here are some of my anomalies from MLB the show:
Arod hitting 50+ homeruns in 2012
Giants trading Matt Cain + prospects for Jiame Garcia and Pujols
We trade Cano for prospects and start Kevin Russo at second
in one RTTS game i was on the rays and at mid season they were like 60 – 40 but in third since the sox were at 67-33 and the Yankees were at 72 – 28 or something. So 3 AL east teams on pace for 100+ wins.
Sox trade Pedoria, sign jimmy Rollins and Lance Berkman
one thing that did happen that i thought was outrageous at the time was that they had the Diamondbacks winning the NL West in 2011. I laughed at it thinking it was impossible…yea i was wrong.
I just got to free agency. The top pitcher on the market was Bruce Chen.
Contributing writer for Pinstripe Alley.
Follow me on Twitter @frankiecamp48
by Frank Campagnola on Dec 9, 2011 4:35 PM EST up reply actions
I didn’t see it anywhere on the site here, but the Yankees did resign Freddy Garcia today to a 1 year contact.
Which to me is ridiculous
If they were at a need for starting pitching, he’d probably still have been there in January after all the FA moves, after they’ve had time to look for a trade, and after the Darvish sweepstakes. Signing him so early limits their rotation flexibility (because he has a guaranteed spot) that is already limited to begin with, takes 5 million that could be spent on anyone else and it lessens the chance of a FA signing or a trade for a better pitcher.
It is what it is I suppose. But at this point I think it’s either we start 2012 with the exact same rotation as 2011, or Hughes’ game in Seattle in mid-September was his final start as a Yankee.
I'll do whatever it takes to win games, whether it's sitting on a bench waving a towel, handing a cup of water to a teammate, or hitting the game-winning shot.- Kobe Bryant
A.J. Burnett's only fan!
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