29 Trades for 29 Teams: Cincinnati Reds

Yankees Get: Homer Bailey, Bill Bray, Juan Francisco

Reds Get: Rafael Soriano, Brett Gardner, rights to Hiroyuki Nakajima, $6 million

For the Reds: The Reds are in a good position to contend in 2012 and they know it. The NL Central has been weakened, having lost arguably its two best hitters in free agency, and, regardless of the ridiculous package they gave up to get him, Cincinnati has improved with the acquisition of =Mat Latos.

One thing the Reds lack, assuming they’re smart enough to realize hat Aroldis Chapman belongs in the rotation, is a closer. Francisco Cordero and Ryan Madson are old and pricey, which could make the shorter commitment to Rafael Soriano attractive. He pitched well in the 2nd half of 2011 and the Yankees eating about 1/2 of his 2012 salary would sweeten the pot. The Reds would be betting that he’d pitch well enough that he’d decide not to cash in on his 2013 option, but that’s a fairly decent bet, especially if he’s adding to his value by collecting saves, which general managers care about for some reason.

Brett Gardner is a great fit for the Reds. He’d be a high quality table-setter in front of Phillips, Votto and Bruce. He’d also improve their defense in center field by pushing the below average Drew Stubbs to left.

As of now, Cincinnati would go into the season with Paul Janish or Zack Cozart as their starting shortstop. If they can sign him and if he can field the position, Hiroyuki Nakajima would probably be an upgrade over either of those two.

For the Yankees: I thought about asking for Mike Leake instead of Homer Bailey, but I can’t imagine the Reds doing that. At any rate, with Latos, Johnny Cueto, Leake and Bronson Arroyo locked into rotation spots, Bailey seems like the odd man out if Chapman pushes his way in. That’s a shame, because Bailey can pitch. Despite being labeled a “bust” so far, he’s shown steady improvement the last couple years (3.75 FIP/3.74 xFIP in 2010, 4.06 FIP/3.77 xFIP in 2011), and he’s still only 25. His health remains a question mark and “Homer” is a pretty terrible name for a pitcher, but he’s got swing-and-miss stuff that could get AL East hitters out.

There are two ways to solve the Yankees left-handed relief problem. The first is to abandon the LOOGY concept entirely, but since that isn’t happening, the next-best bet is to get lefty relievers who can actually get lefties out. Despite struggling with his control, Bill Bray held lefties to a .557 OPS in 2011. With Sean Marshall on board he’s fairly expendable for Cincinnati.

Finally, Juan Francisco’s a decent 3b prospect who could serve as A-Rod’s caddie and get more and more time there as the Centaur transitions to DH over the next couple years. Francisco’s played a few games in the outfield in the minors, so he’d be worth a look there as well.

This trade would be a gamble, but if the Yankees want to avoid high-end free agents and still preserve the farm system, they need to start gambling.