Interview With Mark Simon Part I
by Brandon C. on Dec 3, 2011 10:30 AM EST
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PrintMark Simon writes for ESPNNY, covering the Mets and Yankees. Simon also co-hosts the Baseball Today podcast, and his primary work is as a Baseball Research Specialist for ESPN Stats & Information.
Mark was kind enough to answer ten questions about the Yankees, stats, and more for us!
Brandon C.: Do you see the Yankees making a big trade this off-season?
Mark Simon: I think they have one big move in them this offseason, and then maybe some minor tinkering to have some third base insurance for A-Rod, maybe some outfield depth, and a lefty reliever. The big move almost surely would be a starting pitcher, unless they decided to jettison Swisher. I can't see any circumstance in which they'd have a different starting position player at any of the other spots.
BC Do you believe 2012 will be Mariano Rivera's last season?
MS: I'll say 2013, but 2012 wouldn't shock me. I think David Robertson will inherit the role when Mariano Rivera is done.
BC: If you're in charge of the Yankees, what moves do you make this off-season?
MS: I would either trade for an ace or build up starting pitching depth to the point of having 6 starters that you're really comfy with (right now, you probably have 4). I think if you can get a potential No. 2 starter (Garza or someone of his ilk) without giving up Montero, you should pursue.
BC: Do you think the Yankees can make the playoffs with their current rotation? Win the World Series?
MS: Playoffs, yes, absolutely. Ask me about the World Series on Opening Day, once I can get a better look at the completed rosters for the Rangers, Red Sox, and Phillies.
****
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BC: Are there any stats that jump out at you about the Yankees that the average fan does not know?
MS: I suppose that depends on how you define average fan. Those of you who read my blog items on ESPNNY know that I like the defensive stats, and I'm guessing average fan would be surprised at how poorly Granderson ranked last season. That was written about a lot. What wasn't noted was that, at least statistically, CC Sabathia rates very poorly via the advanced defensivemetrics.
BC: Which stats do you use first when analyzing a player?
MS: That depends on who it is. Let me say this. Almost every statistic has some use, even batting average, which takes a lot of hits (no pun intended) from those who are sabermetrically-inclined. I look at a lot...his slashline, his power numbers, his situational performance (I'll usually look at both BA with runners in scoring position and a sabermetric stat like Win Probability Added to see if they jibe), his baserunning, his defense...it is funny though that I do find myself gravitating to WAR when I want to get the overall picture.
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Nice q&a.
In other news, the Marlins are being investigated by the SEC for possibly bribing local officials into giving them a new stadium. It’s alleged (and of no surprise to most astute baseball fans, I would think) that management cried poverty while the team owner funneled millions from the Marlins to one of his other companies.
Boone Logan is a good boy. So is David Robertson. Team A.J.
Make sure you read part II, he talks about A.J.!
Follow me on twitter @nyybrandonc
Co-Manager/Writer for Pinstripe Alley, Editor/Writer for Blueshirt Banter
"No matter what I talk about, I always get back to baseball."
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Trade him for Zambrano because he's a headcase!
I'll do whatever it takes to win games, whether it's sitting on a bench waving a towel, handing a cup of water to a teammate, or hitting the game-winning shot.- Kobe Bryant
A.J. Burnett's only fan!
But Zambrano is a bigger headcase than A.J.
I don't want to hear anymore CP3 to the Knicks trade rumors
My signature should tell you all you need to know about the seriousness of my comment
I'll do whatever it takes to win games, whether it's sitting on a bench waving a towel, handing a cup of water to a teammate, or hitting the game-winning shot.- Kobe Bryant
A.J. Burnett's only fan!
not really
I'll do whatever it takes to win games, whether it's sitting on a bench waving a towel, handing a cup of water to a teammate, or hitting the game-winning shot.- Kobe Bryant
A.J. Burnett's only fan!
I'm an A.J. fan too.
The two of us warrant the claim that A.J. Burnett has fans (as opposed to a fan).
Boone Logan is a good boy. So is David Robertson. Team A.J.
by goyanks69 on Dec 3, 2011 12:50 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
AJ fan?
You get a Rec.
I'll do whatever it takes to win games, whether it's sitting on a bench waving a towel, handing a cup of water to a teammate, or hitting the game-winning shot.- Kobe Bryant
A.J. Burnett's only fan!
He's not exactly an AJ fan.
I'll do whatever it takes to win games, whether it's sitting on a bench waving a towel, handing a cup of water to a teammate, or hitting the game-winning shot.- Kobe Bryant
A.J. Burnett's only fan!
Drinks and spirited discussion go hand in hand.
Boone Logan is a good boy. So is David Robertson. Team A.J.
Usually followed by the breaking of furniture
Or is that only in my family?
by waw on Dec 3, 2011 4:18 PM EST up reply actions
hell yeah
hence the Team A.J. part in my signature. I always liked him. He signed a ball for me on Old Timer’s Day this year.
Boone Logan is a good boy. So is David Robertson. Team A.J.
I like him because I still believe that he can actually pitch and can be a significant member of the rotation. And I don’t give a shit that over 90% of this fanbase thinks he can’t. I just hope Girardi and Cashman still think he can.
I'll do whatever it takes to win games, whether it's sitting on a bench waving a towel, handing a cup of water to a teammate, or hitting the game-winning shot.- Kobe Bryant
A.J. Burnett's only fan!
I think they do.
I like him for the reason that most people don’t like him – he’s dangerous and unpredictable. It’s like playing with fire. In May of 2010 I saw him throw a ridiculous 2 hitter (or so) with around 8 strikeouts against the Indians. Then I saw him blow up at Old Timer’s Day 2010 when he punched the wall. I love the way he mentors Nova. He just strikes me as a good guy with a bad ass side and a soft side. He’s got the hot wife and he loves hanging with his kids. I think he’s a fascinating character.
Boone Logan is a good boy. So is David Robertson. Team A.J.
His personality has never been an issue, despite the accusations of “being a headcase” by the NY media. The problem has been his tendency to go bad for certain stretches. Even if it doesn’t last long, when he goes bad he really goes bad, and it balloons his ERA and makes the season look awful in the eyes of almost everyone.
I'll do whatever it takes to win games, whether it's sitting on a bench waving a towel, handing a cup of water to a teammate, or hitting the game-winning shot.- Kobe Bryant
A.J. Burnett's only fan!
Yeah I realized it after I posted and slapped myself
I don't want to hear anymore CP3 to the Knicks trade rumors
I'd honestly rather have two years of AJ than one year of Zambrano
I'll do whatever it takes to win games, whether it's sitting on a bench waving a towel, handing a cup of water to a teammate, or hitting the game-winning shot.- Kobe Bryant
A.J. Burnett's only fan!
Burnett is a terrible pitcher and any perceived value that he brings could be easily replaced by the likes of Noesi, Warren, or Phelps. Swapping those two and immediately DFAing Zambrano would help the Yankees in 2013 and even 2012 if the Yankees get lucky with one of those minor league pitchers like they did Nova this last year. Or, they could sign or trade for another top of the roto starter like I want them to and roll with a CC-signed pitcher-Nova-Garcia-Hughes starting rotation.
by Briceratops on Dec 3, 2011 3:09 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
What exactly do you not agree with?
Do you not think that Warren/Phelps/Noesi could match his 5 ERA/FIP? Would an extra 16.5 mil in 2013 not help the team field a better product?
I don't think Burnett is a terrible pitcher.
He will be more valuable this year than last – mark my words.
Boone Logan is a good boy. So is David Robertson. Team A.J.
We'll see what happens then.
I'll do whatever it takes to win games, whether it's sitting on a bench waving a towel, handing a cup of water to a teammate, or hitting the game-winning shot.- Kobe Bryant
A.J. Burnett's only fan!
I just don't think he's a terrible pitcher
I know the stats, but I think he’s better than a 5 ERA pitcher. Yes he’s inconsistent and he’ll give up a lot of homers but he did a lot of things right this year, and if he can carry the new mechanics into next year I think he’ll have a solid season. If you want to disagree, feel free. I already know you do. I’m used to this. Nobody agrees with me about AJ.
That, and I really don’t like Zambrano.
I'll do whatever it takes to win games, whether it's sitting on a bench waving a towel, handing a cup of water to a teammate, or hitting the game-winning shot.- Kobe Bryant
A.J. Burnett's only fan!
For all the times that people get ridiculed on this website for ignoring facts and statistics, I’m surprised you, as someone who has been a member of the site for so long, would say something like this:
I know the stats, but I think he’s better than a 5 ERA pitcher.
We have two years of sample now, as we all know. Ignoring what has happened, and then expecting him to be better as he’s now 3 full seasons removed (and three years older) from the last time he had a FIP under 4 is just unreasonable.
Contributing writer for Pinstripe Alley.
Follow me on Twitter @frankiecamp48
by Frank Campagnola on Dec 3, 2011 4:01 PM EST up reply actions
Let me rephrase then
I realize he had a 5 ERA this season and I’m not saying the season was good. But as I’ve pointed out countless times already, he finished the year impressively to me after changing his mechanics before the game against Boston. He toyed around with it in September and as a result, I saw much more break on his curve and a bigger tendency to keep the ball down in the zone.
I think that he will have a solid year if he translates what he did at the end of the season into next year. The stats in September and in his playoff start weren’t bad. It’s a gut feeling based on a small sample size and I know that. I am NOT advocating in any way to trust him as a top of the rotation pitcher. I also understand that the salary is unreasonable. And I don’t expect him to revert to his 2009 level. But they’re paying for him at some level whether he’s on the team or not. No team will take on his salary, and I’m simply not convinced that he can’t increase his production.
Is it that crazy a belief to think that he possibly can have an improved season next year? I’m not expecting an ERA/FIP under 4. But I think something around a 4.50 or 4.60 is a reasonable possibility, and if does that, eats innings and provides a high strikeout rate (both of which he does right now), then he’s a good backend starting pitcher.
I'll do whatever it takes to win games, whether it's sitting on a bench waving a towel, handing a cup of water to a teammate, or hitting the game-winning shot.- Kobe Bryant
A.J. Burnett's only fan!
I'm as big an AJ fan as you are, but I'm not nearly half the optimist that you are
The idiot formerly known as pkyankeefan! Now in Technicolour!
by Hasan Paliwala on Dec 3, 2011 4:38 PM EST up reply actions
I hope and want AJ to have a better season next season, but I can’t deny the fact that the Yankees would be better off without him and his contract. I’m surprised that you can.
Jesus Montero fangirl
by WhatwouldJeterdo on Dec 3, 2011 4:46 PM EST up reply actions
I never said they were better off with his contract
My point is that they’re paying him anyways regardless of where he would go in a trade, since no team will want to take his salary. If they’re going to pay him, then id rather they pay him to be a Yankee.
In the case of Zambrano, which is the only situation where they’d just switch salaries, I’m not a fan. I’m skeptical of Zambrano’s maturity, and it’s not like he’s a better pitcher than AJ either.
I agree theyd be better off without he contract. But he contract is here to stay to some extent whether he’s on the team or not. If they pay the contract, I think they’re better off with AJ than anything they’d get for him in a trade.
I'll do whatever it takes to win games, whether it's sitting on a bench waving a towel, handing a cup of water to a teammate, or hitting the game-winning shot.- Kobe Bryant
A.J. Burnett's only fan!
by nyyrocks29 on Dec 3, 2011 5:30 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I disagree.
The flexibility alone would be reason enough to think whatever you got in a trade would be better.
Jesus Montero fangirl
by WhatwouldJeterdo on Dec 3, 2011 5:37 PM EST up reply actions
What kind of flexibility?
Because this wouldn’t save them money for almost anybody they trade for, so it’s not like they’d get financial flexibility.
Flexibility with pitchers, yes. They’d have a spot open if AJ weren’t here. But this goes back to the fact that I feel he can still contribute. At the very least he’s an innings eater at the back end of the rotation, and that has it’s value. Especially with the lack of patience the Yankees have with young pitchers who would be in his place.
I'll do whatever it takes to win games, whether it's sitting on a bench waving a towel, handing a cup of water to a teammate, or hitting the game-winning shot.- Kobe Bryant
A.J. Burnett's only fan!
The flexibility that comes from being able to take an ineffective pitcher out of the rotation when he isn’t making ridiculous amounts of money. So very many people could match his production for pennies compared to what he’s making. It’s not a matter of whether he can contribute or not, but that there is a long list of pitchers that could do what he does for much less and not have a near guaranteed spot in the rotation. Not having AJ > Having AJ no matter which way you really look at it.
I will root for him and want him to succeed because he is a Yankee, but I’d drive him anywhere in the US if a team wanted to take him because that’s what would be best for this team.
Jesus Montero fangirl
by WhatwouldJeterdo on Dec 3, 2011 6:54 PM EST up reply actions
Fair enough
So your problem is that he has a guaranteed spot in the rotation no matter how he pitches, and yes, I can understand that. If he starts sucking again at the start of next season, then I’ll probably move more toward the side of getting him out of the rotation.
He’s not going anywhere, so what is best for this team realistically is that he builds on what he did at the end of the season and have a solid year as a back end starter. Who knows. He may surprise people. That curve is still a pretty good pitch.
I'll do whatever it takes to win games, whether it's sitting on a bench waving a towel, handing a cup of water to a teammate, or hitting the game-winning shot.- Kobe Bryant
A.J. Burnett's only fan!
Yes, realistically he is going nowhere.
The point was that you said “I think they’re better off with AJ than anything they’d get for him in a trade”, and I don’t believe that to be true at all, as I said.
Jesus Montero fangirl
by WhatwouldJeterdo on Dec 3, 2011 7:28 PM EST up reply actions
I just don't know what they'd get for him in a trade
A mop probably, and maybe someone would pay 20% of that deal at most.
I'll do whatever it takes to win games, whether it's sitting on a bench waving a towel, handing a cup of water to a teammate, or hitting the game-winning shot.- Kobe Bryant
A.J. Burnett's only fan!
And I believe that would be an improvement over having to deal with everything that comes with AJ being on the team.
Jesus Montero fangirl
by WhatwouldJeterdo on Dec 3, 2011 7:31 PM EST up reply actions
And by that, you mean guaranteeing him a spot in the rotation even if he gets blown apart for an entire month like August this year.
You’re not talking about his personality in any way I would hope, because the NY media is pretty good at making him seem soft and insane.
I'll do whatever it takes to win games, whether it's sitting on a bench waving a towel, handing a cup of water to a teammate, or hitting the game-winning shot.- Kobe Bryant
A.J. Burnett's only fan!
Which is what I said…
Jesus Montero fangirl
by WhatwouldJeterdo on Dec 3, 2011 7:35 PM EST up reply actions
Deal
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Jedi Master A-Rod is a poster on Pinstripe Alley. He can be reached by clicking the "Reply" button below his comments.
by Jedi Master A-Rod on Dec 3, 2011 7:34 PM EST up reply actions
Trading AJ for anyone not named Lackey or Zambrano would be the best thing to ever happen to the Yankees. That’s also the reason it won’t happen.
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Jedi Master A-Rod is a poster on Pinstripe Alley. He can be reached by clicking the "Reply" button below his comments.
by Jedi Master A-Rod on Dec 3, 2011 5:43 PM EST up reply actions
Definitely.
Not being in favor of it would just be insane.
Jesus Montero fangirl
by WhatwouldJeterdo on Dec 3, 2011 5:52 PM EST up reply actions
Giving him away pretty much?
I just don’t like the idea of completely giving a player (not the contract, the player) away without anything legitimate in return unless you feel at this point he’s completely useless. I’d be in favor of giving the contract away, but that isn’t going to happen.
I'll do whatever it takes to win games, whether it's sitting on a bench waving a towel, handing a cup of water to a teammate, or hitting the game-winning shot.- Kobe Bryant
A.J. Burnett's only fan!
I’d argue that the Yankees would gain more from giving him away than keeping him at this point.
Jesus Montero fangirl
by WhatwouldJeterdo on Dec 3, 2011 6:57 PM EST up reply actions
This is Zambrano's last year of his contract
I would trade AJ for Zambrano straight up because of the money it saves in 2013.
The main reason I say him is because I wouldn’t want another shitty starter lodged in the rotation because of a fat contract, even if it is only for one year.
Give me a mop and eat 50-60% of the contract and you have a deal.
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Jedi Master A-Rod is a poster on Pinstripe Alley. He can be reached by clicking the "Reply" button below his comments.
by Jedi Master A-Rod on Dec 3, 2011 7:11 PM EST up reply actions
You think a team will eat 50-60% of his contract?
I'll do whatever it takes to win games, whether it's sitting on a bench waving a towel, handing a cup of water to a teammate, or hitting the game-winning shot.- Kobe Bryant
A.J. Burnett's only fan!
Not on this planet
Rec Generating Database
Jedi Master A-Rod is a poster on Pinstripe Alley. He can be reached by clicking the "Reply" button below his comments.
by Jedi Master A-Rod on Dec 3, 2011 7:24 PM EST up reply actions
Exactly- thats been my point the whole time
Trading him and paying over 80% of his contract doesn’t make sense to me.
I'll do whatever it takes to win games, whether it's sitting on a bench waving a towel, handing a cup of water to a teammate, or hitting the game-winning shot.- Kobe Bryant
A.J. Burnett's only fan!
OK?…
Rec Generating Database
Jedi Master A-Rod is a poster on Pinstripe Alley. He can be reached by clicking the "Reply" button below his comments.
by Jedi Master A-Rod on Dec 3, 2011 7:29 PM EST up reply actions
ok...
I'll do whatever it takes to win games, whether it's sitting on a bench waving a towel, handing a cup of water to a teammate, or hitting the game-winning shot.- Kobe Bryant
A.J. Burnett's only fan!
I never suggested anything to the contrary (even though I would move AJ for next to nothing).
Wooo impossible hypothetical situations to jettison AJ
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Jedi Master A-Rod is a poster on Pinstripe Alley. He can be reached by clicking the "Reply" button below his comments.
by Jedi Master A-Rod on Dec 3, 2011 7:42 PM EST up reply actions
If you’d move him for nothing, then would you just DFA him? Still paying him, but he’s gone and you get nothing for it. Isn’t that essentially the same thing?
I'll do whatever it takes to win games, whether it's sitting on a bench waving a towel, handing a cup of water to a teammate, or hitting the game-winning shot.- Kobe Bryant
A.J. Burnett's only fan!
Maybe. I sure wouldn’t categorically say “no”.
Having flexibility with that rotation spot would be pretty nice.
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Jedi Master A-Rod is a poster on Pinstripe Alley. He can be reached by clicking the "Reply" button below his comments.
by Jedi Master A-Rod on Dec 3, 2011 7:47 PM EST up reply actions
In my dreams we trade him and 25% (4-5 mil next two seasons) of his contract to the Padres for Joe Thatcher. AJ would probably be successful pitching half his games in Petco and Thatcher would be that second lefty out of the pen who just became arbitration eligible that you know Cashman would otherwise spend ten million dollars on this winter.
You would trade a guy
who had 10 quality starts last season for a second lefty reliever? Give me a break. AJ gave up 5 or more ER on 5 occasions last season. For some perspective, CC allowed 5 ER or more 3 times last year. I know everyone loves to shit on A.J. here, but let’s not act like the guy can’t hit the broad side of a barn. If you take away his three worst starts in August (the month when he lost control and revamped his mechanics), he would have pitched to a 4.23 ERA. I know that’s not stunning, but it’s not terrible either. When A.J. is pitching like a true #2 next season, remember that I was one of the few who believed it will happen. If he doesn’t, then I’ll eat crow and admit it.
Boone Logan is a good boy. So is David Robertson. Team A.J.
Sure enough, if you take away a pitcher’s bad starts, the rest of his starts aren’t bad at all, are they?
Three bad outings in August
are outliers to a decent season.
Boone Logan is a good boy. So is David Robertson. Team A.J.
We have super low standards of decent, huh?
Jesus Montero fangirl
by WhatwouldJeterdo on Dec 4, 2011 12:57 AM EST up reply actions
Yes I would because Burnett sucks
And it saves a lot of money by not having to sign another lefty reliever and opes up another five mil so we can sign a legit starter for the rotation.
Who is this legit starter you'd sign for $5 million?
Boone Logan is a good boy. So is David Robertson. Team A.J.
Rec’d.
Contributing writer for Pinstripe Alley.
Follow me on Twitter @frankiecamp48
by Frank Campagnola on Dec 3, 2011 3:37 PM EST up reply actions
Not sure if serious
Can a team realistically trade for a player and then immediately DFA him? I’d think the MLBPA would pitch a fit.
by waw on Dec 3, 2011 4:21 PM EST up reply actions
He would still be getting paid
Or I guess the Yankees could use him out of the pen or something. This is all moot anyways since the chance of this happening is 0%, although it does make for good discussion in this boring offseason.
Nice Q&A
The big move almost surely would be a starting pitcher, unless they decided to jettison Swisher. I can’t see any circumstance in which they’d have a different starting position player at any of the other spots.
The one way I could see a different starting spot is in either left field or right field, if Gardner/Swisher was traded for a starting pitcher. And I could see that happening, since both those guys are relatively young and both (especially Gardy) are on great contracts. I’m sure they’re desirable players for a lot of teams, and if Cashman can get a good deal for a front-line pitcher for one of those guys, then I don’t think he’d hesitate.
I'll do whatever it takes to win games, whether it's sitting on a bench waving a towel, handing a cup of water to a teammate, or hitting the game-winning shot.- Kobe Bryant
A.J. Burnett's only fan!
Surpised that we re-signed Swisher?
He has one of the best contracts on the team. 10 mil for his production=no brainer.
This
Swisher was a no brainer. Next year will be more difficult with him because he’ll probably want a lot more.
I'll do whatever it takes to win games, whether it's sitting on a bench waving a towel, handing a cup of water to a teammate, or hitting the game-winning shot.- Kobe Bryant
A.J. Burnett's only fan!
I do not approve of this interview
Every one of Mark Simon’s answers should have began with the phrase “Simon Says!” Without that, it’s just gobbledygook!
"WHO WOULD LEAD?! THE CLOWN?!"
by I'mGivingYouARaise on Dec 3, 2011 7:08 PM EST via mobile reply actions
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