Has Prospect Mania Reached The Point Of Insanity?

I think it was 2003. It was the one with Randy Johnson on the cover.

Also, I think 1 in 3 is about right for those guys. I think Montero will be an amazing hitter, but I doubt the pitchers pan out well at all. Either of them would be extremely lucky to have AJ Burnett’s career, imo.

I’d take those Marlin/Blue Jays years and 2009 for sure.

I think Cashman has made some mistakes, definitely, and some fans are right there. I would have traded for any of the guys you mentioned if it meant trading Montero and Betances and one or two more prospects. We are absolutely loaded at the the catcher position and to me it is an absolute failure on Cashman’s part to not have parted with Montero to pick up any one of those starters. Banuelos would be the one I’d hold onto.
I know many here will disagree, but we passed on some very good talent.

I think your analysis is spot-on, but the reason (seemingly) for Cashman to cling to his prospects is budget-control. It looks like he intends to use them, (with their low salaries) as a way of keeping the payroll down. I think they’re trying to minimize the amount the pay in luxury taxes, which is a sound economic strategy

I know we talk about the stupid moves the old regime made with prospects, but outside of Mike Lowell and Jay Buhner, did any of the others really stand out and make us say, “We definitely shouldn’t have traded him.”

I can’t really think of any others from that generation. Even recently, outside of Ian Kennedy, is there anyone else you would have liked to hold on to?

but some prospects need to be evaluated on an individual basis. I am not a scout, but when I watched Montero hit last year, it reminded me of how I felt watching a young Manny and Cabrera. The combination of his bat speed inside and ability to take pitches over the plate to the opposite field with power is very exciting. Maybe Yankees’ fans are being irrational in how they value the team’s prospects, but with Montero, I really think the excitement is warranted.

If they’re really trying to trim payroll, they have to hope for some return on their investment with these three prospects. Even if just one B works out in the rotation, that could save them at least $30M. If both work out, even better – though more unlikely.

Same with Montero. He allows them to have a C/DH instead of trading for a Lance Berkman and eating his salary.

In some ways the perception is off and in some ways it isn’t. There is no way to get around the fact that it’s a guessing game and a roll of the dice, so it’s always hard to say who is being smart and who is being stubborn. I will say this though:

If any Yankee fan gave me their projections for the careers of Montero, Sanchez, Williams, Heathcott, Bichette, Banuelos, Betances, Warren, Phelps, Noesi, Stoneburner, etc., I would take the under on every single one and I would probably be right most of the time. But, prospects, as you rightly said “provide flexibility for a team that’s loaded with expensive veterans on long-term deals” and therein lies their great value, even if a good chunk of them disappoint.

If only two or three of the aforementioned eleven reach their ceiling, they will still be providing a lot of surplus value to the Yankees. Some of them will be busts, but the odds are in favor of a percentage of them making good on why the organization is so high on them. The way that you increase these odds is by making a judgement on their talent and trying to keep the best ones, which is just another form of the guessing game.

Saying that you wouldn’t be satisfied with Dellin Betances having A.J. Burnett’s career is lunacy. Not giving up your best chance at cost effective youth for a vast overpay for a “major league proven” starting pitcher is not.

but thats only because in his limited PA in the MLB level he looked good. So we should see where he goes from there. Everyone else should be available for trade.

Rec’d, I found this quite interesting

Not every prospect is a guessing game. Of course, if you aren’t 100% sure of a player you can refer to them as a guessing game, but really there is plenty of educated guesses(if you want to keep that word involved), which is where the decision comes in not to part with these prospects. Montero is a guy where I think has played at a high enough level for a long enough time to be put into a different category than that of your typical top prospect. Also, just watch the way the ball comes off his bat, its different. I haven’t seen anyone hti the ball the opposite way at yankee the stadium the way he did in his brief stint last season. That isn’t going to go anywhere, assuming he stays healthy. We shouldn’t trade him unless its a stud stud pitcher, and i think that’s where the issues have come up and why we haven’t dealt him. There havent been any pitchers that I consider elite, and im glad Montero hasn’t been dealt for these second tier pitchers.

The killer B’s however haven’t played at a high enough level for a long enough time to really give me anymore faith they’ll be good ML players(other than their prospect rankings). Those are the guys that I have no problem dealing for the Gio’s of the world, because I consider them much more of a “guessing game”. Even if I were fine with giving both away for Gio, that wouldn’t be enough to get him(even though I think that package could rival the Nats). That’s why Cash hasn’t made a deal. The one chip that would get these deals done, Cash doesn’t look at as a “guessing game”. The other prospects he would give up don’t get it done. I have no problem with what we’ve done so far. The asking prices have been too high, and the pitchers coming back haven’t been elite. I don’t know why everyones so distraught.