I looked at the the Rockies to see what we might like to acquire from them, however the entire trade proved to be somewhat difficult to come up with. I wanted to create a realistic trade that could actually happen right now that would make sense for both parties. The problem was that the Rockies don't have a lot of realistic targets we could go for and trying to fill their holes was tricky. Their top prospects are a catcher, they have a lot of pitching talent and we don't have a first base prospect to offer them. Another problem was that I honestly never heard of him before I found him on the depth chart (for some reason NL West teams are alien to me) and I have no idea how they view him (part of the future or a just the best they have).
So here is what I came up with:
Why Jhoulys Chacin: It turns out that Chacin compares very favorably to Gio Gonzalez:
GG: 3.93 ERA 1.4 WHIP 8.3 H/9 0.9 HR/9 4.4 BB/9 8.6 K/9 47.5 GB% 35.2 FB% 10.3 HR/FB% 4.06 FIP
JC: 3.52 ERA 1.3 WHIP 7.6 H/9 0.8 HR/9 4.2 BB/9 7.9 K/9 52.4 GB% 29.9 FB% 10.7 HR/FB% 3.98 FIP
Chacin has a better ERA, WHIP and FIP in a tougher ballpark. He has a slightly better H/9 but a slightly lower K/9. Their BB/9 and HR/9 are the same and Chacin is much more of a ground ball pitcher than Gio is, which will play favorably in Yankee Stadium. Despite the fact that Chacin pitches half his games in a much tougher ballpark than Gio, their numbers are very similar and Chacin even seems to have a slight edge. Chacin will also give you the innings Gio will since he pitched 137 innings in 2010 and 194 innings in 2011 (his first full year of starting) so if he's let loose he will be able to give you 200 innings. Chacin is also 2 years younger than Gio
and will be under team control for more years. Damn Super Twos
What we are giving up:
Phil Hughes: He will be able to immediately fill the hole left by Chacin in the Rockies rotation and, if healthy, could actually fulfill some of his potential value and fill in for Chacin. If not, he can always be put in the bullpen where he has excelled and could be the Rockies long term solution as their closer. I know Hughes has become a fly ball pitcher and it could prove to be a problem, but I think he can turn things around and lower his HR rates given a healthy season. Taken out on grounds of an overpay! Hurray! But Frank is right, I don't think you would need to include Hughes to make the deal, this is a lot of Major League ready talent. The Gio trade included some players that still have a while to go before we find out if they're legit or not. I think Nunez, Noesi, Betances and Warren provide enough 'guaranteed' value on their own.
Eduardo Nunez: He would be very helpful to the Rockies to sure up their infield. He has a better bat (93 (wRC+) than either second baseman Chris Nelson (68 wRC+) and third baseman Jonathan Herrera (65 wRC+) and has a lower K% and walks more than Chris Nelson. He also gives them speed on the base path. He could also serve as a better hitting utility bat and replace Eric Young (who they seemed to be interested in moving).
Hector Noesi: Provides them a cost controlled pitcher that can help them in the rotation or the pen right now. The Rockies bullpen was in the bottom third of the league in ERA so they could use his help there. In the NL West he could become a strikeout machine and if he continues to keep his walk rate low then he will be a great addition to the staff. If he is put into the rotation, they could then move Kevin Slowey to the bullpen as the longman.
Dellin Betances: Brings them another potential pitching star to eventually join Pomeranz in the rotation. In the NL West he should be able to flourish. If Betances can bounce back and lower his walk rate he should be very effective.
Adam Warren: I chose Warren over Phelps because he's younger and from the numbers I had available to me, looked to profile in Coors Field as he has been a little better at limiting home runs, which is key to pitching in Colorado. He could either fit into the back end of the rotation or stay in AAA for depth. Jorge De La Rosa had Tommy John surgery last year, so the Rockies need as much depth in the rotation as possible.
In hindsight, the package is probably not strong enough to get him. I originally put in Joba before realizing he was still on the DL. I also didn't feel that giving up ManBan and Betances for Gio was worth it, so I felt the value of major league ready pitchers like Noesi and Warren would make up for ManBan's possible value. The Rockies might actually be building their team around Chacin for all I know. This trade may not have as much potential value, but I went for more definite value to try and make up for the lack of top flight talent. I believe that one can be substituted for another, but maybe this was just not strong enough. What does everyone think?