29 Trades For 29 Teams: Chicago Cubs

by yankeesfan1325* on Dec 20, 2011 3:13 PM EST

Cubs Acquire: Dellin Betances, Ausin Romine, David Phelps, & Chris Dickerson

I think that this would be a good trade, because the Yankees recieve a good 28 year old pitcher that has already pitched well in the AL East. Garza is a dependable #2 guy, but he would have to win the #2 spot over Nova. So, #2-3 would be his position in the rotation. The Cubs recieve young talent who are soon to become good players. The Cubs have a thin farm system, so adding Betances, Romine & Phelps to the system would be a good boost, and soon, they would be seen in the majors. Dickerson is an OF that you can put in the OF that has a lot of speed, so you are sure that he is always near the ball when hit to him.

*Stats*

*Matt Garza* has spent 6 seasons in the majors, & his last 3 years were well. 2009-2010 were with the Rays, and 2011 was with the Cubs. 2009- Garza went 8-12 w/ a 3.95ERA in 203.0IP. 2010- Garza went 15-10 w/ a 3.91ERA in 204.2IP & had 3 complete games. 2011- Garza went 10-10 w/ a 3.32ERA in 198.0IP & had 2 complete games. His ERA has dropped from 09-11, so if he's a Yankee, lets hope it keeps going down.

*Chris Dickerson* has spent 4 seasons in the majors, & here are his last 3 years. In 09-10, he was with the Reds, in 10, he was with the Brewers also, and in 2011, he was a Yankee. In 09, he had a .275BA with 2HR's & 15RBI's in 97 games. In 10, he had a .206BA with 0HR's & 5RBI's in 45 games. & finally in 2011, Dickerson had a .260BA w/1HR & 7RBI's in 60 games. He is a LF who is fast, and is 29 years old. He would be a good fit the the Cubs because they have spots in the OF open w/ Reed being a FA, Byrd coming off an injury season, Fukudome being traded to the Indians, and Covin was traded to the Rockies a week ago for Ian Stewart.

*Austin Romine* is new to the major leagues. Not a lot of experience, so I will give you his Spring Training stats. His last 2 years was where he got most of his time (out of 3 played), where in 2010, he had a .214BA w/ 0HR's & 1 RBI in 10 games. In 2011, Romine had a .217BA w/ 2HR's & 2RBI's (which came off of the HR's) in 15 games played.

*Dellin Betances* hasn't spent a lot of time in the majors or in Spring Training, so I will give you his Spring Training & 2011 Reg. Season stats. In ST Betances went 0-1 w/ a 6.00ERA & 6IP in 4 games (0 were started). In the majors, Betances went 0-0 w/ a 6.75ERA & 2.2IP in 2 games (1 started).

Lastly, *David Phelps*. I believe that he had surgery on his arm (Tommy John Surgery?), but I am not sure. He has no major league experience, so this is his 2011 (only) Spring Training stats. Phelps was 1-1 w/ a 10.50ERA & 6IP in 4 games (0 started).

Poll

Is it a good trade?

Yes

52 votes

No

39 votes

91 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

Can you add a little more content to it? The goal was to get some analysis with the trade, analyze it from both sides, discuss the future and current roster changes.

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by Brandon C. on Dec 20, 2011 3:15 PM EST reply actions

sure

by yankeesfan1325* on Dec 20, 2011 3:17 PM EST up reply actions

I'M SORRY ABOUT THE INCOMPLETENESS OF THIS POST...I AM STUDYING FOR FINALS RIGHT NOW, TOMORROW IS THE LAST DAY, AND I WILL MAKE SURE TO FINISH TOMORROW...THANK YOU AND SORRY FOR THE WAIT

by yankeesfan1325* on Dec 20, 2011 3:38 PM EST reply actions

This is actually a pretty realistic trade possibility, but it doesn’t make sense to trade both Romine and Cervelli. You could possibly use someone such as David Adams instead of Cervelli.

Even then, Betances, Romine and Phelps might be pretty fair on both sides, though in my opinion, would be more favorable on the Cubs side.

I like that you traded from the Yankees’ depth, as that’s also very realistic. Overall, very good job.

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by Frank Campagnola on Dec 20, 2011 3:51 PM EST reply actions

Actually, this is pretty even. I said I was leaning toward the Cubs because I thought Garza was a free agent after 2012, but he’s not until 2013, so the Yankees would be getting him for two years instead of one.

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by Frank Campagnola on Dec 20, 2011 3:56 PM EST up reply actions

thank you

by yankeesfan1325* on Dec 20, 2011 4:13 PM EST up reply actions

It’s not bad, but I’m not sure why the Cubs would want two catchers, especially when they already have Geovanny Soto. I think you could make the trade:

Montero, Betances, Phelps
for
Garza

Then it would be more fair. The Cubs in this situation would start playing Montero at first since their depth chart currently lists the unheralded Jeff Baker as the starting 1B. They get one of the best hitting prospects and a high pitching prospect as well as a pitcher who’s done very well in AAA in exchange for a proven commodity, Matt Garza, who is still under contract for 2 years.

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by Andrew GM on Dec 20, 2011 4:57 PM EST reply actions

I get that now, so ima go look for another player to replace Cervelli, but I thought him, because I know that Romine isn’t fully there, but Cervelli is, but I will find a replacement

by yankeesfan1325* on Dec 20, 2011 5:25 PM EST up reply actions

Montero is way too good to trade. Just in those few games last year, he raked, and I expect him to do a lot more this year, now that playing a full season. Just Montero for Garza would be questionable.

by yankeesfan1325* on Dec 20, 2011 11:06 PM EST up reply actions

That trade is in favor of the Cubs it’s not even funny. Montero is a top 10 hitting prospect that just raked in his ML stint and has 6 full seasons of team control. His trade value is huge. Then you’re adding a top 50 pitching prospect as well, AND a good back end starter?

Cubs win on that, and it’s not close.

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by Frank Campagnola on Dec 20, 2011 5:56 PM EST up reply actions

As a top 10 hitting prospect, Montero has a trade value of $36.5MM. As a top 50 pitching prospect, Betances is worth $15.9MM. Then you added quality depth in Phelps.

With two years of arbitration remaining (his third and fourth years), Garza projects to make ~$9MM this year, and then say ~$12MM in 2013 before becoming a free agent.

Assuming he’s about a 4 WAR player over the next two years, his trade value is about $21MM. If you want to make him a 5 WAR player for ‘12 and ’13 despite 2011 being a career year and he’d be going back to the AL East where he never had a season like that, he’d have a trade value of nearly $30MM.

So, Montero alone would cover Garza, let alone the pitching you also gave them.

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by Frank Campagnola on Dec 20, 2011 6:12 PM EST up reply actions

Even then, 4 WAR is generous as his previous career high in WAR was 3.1 prior to ’11.

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by Frank Campagnola on Dec 20, 2011 6:13 PM EST up reply actions

Well yes, but do you really think the Cubs would accept a Montero/Garza trade straight up? You need to sweeten the pot.

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by Andrew GM on Dec 20, 2011 6:49 PM EST up reply actions

I understand, but you’re sweetening the pot with a very high upside pitcher when the pot is already pretty sweet with Montero in it.

We’re talking about a pitcher who, prior to last season, had never had a FIP below 4.

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by Frank Campagnola on Dec 20, 2011 7:00 PM EST up reply actions

Even Montero and Phelps would be a lot

Garza’s big year in the NL Center is going to inflate the asking price to something i’m not willing to include

by jetanumba2 on Dec 20, 2011 7:38 PM EST up reply actions

If you think Theo would accept only Montero & Phelps or Montero & Betances for an accepted proven pitcher like Garza (who everyone in the league considers good), I think you’re barking up the wrong tree. He recognizes the trade value that Garza brings. I made my proposal around what I think would be accepted, not necessarily equal value.

Also re: Frank, forecasting WAR for Montero is just that- forecasting. I do think that he does have that potential upside, but he has no track record yet that would make Epstein comfortable in trading for just him. The fact that he doesn’t have an established position yet doesn’t help them in terms of flexibility.

"Don't you think it's strange that you'll make more money than President Hoover this year?"
"Why not? I had a better year than he did." - G.H. Ruth

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by Andrew GM on Dec 20, 2011 8:19 PM EST up reply actions

oh i know

i’m just saying I wouldn’t be comfortable giving that up. Garza is good and he is proven in the AL East, but his great year in the weak NL Central has upped his value artificially because you’d have to pay for NL Central Garza but you’d be getting AL East Garza

by jetanumba2 on Dec 20, 2011 9:02 PM EST up reply actions

How do you calculate that?

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by nyyrocks29 on Dec 21, 2011 4:01 PM EST up reply actions

The prospect ones are based on Victor Wang’s research. The pros are based on Sky Kalkman’s trade value calculator that compares WAR to salary and gives you their surplus value (trade value).

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by Frank Campagnola on Dec 21, 2011 5:03 PM EST up reply actions

I would do this in a heartbeat, I don't think the Cubs would, though

by Let's Talk About Tex Baby on Dec 20, 2011 6:24 PM EST reply actions

Not a bad trade

but I don’t think Garza is worth giving up Berances AND then Phelps too. Also I don’t think the Cubs would want two catchers and I would be hesitant to trade tw oof our catchers in one trade. I think those players would get Garza, but ALL those players would be too much. I’d switch out one of Cervelli/Romine for an infielder or outfielder or take out Phelps and add someone else in his place or take out Betances and replace give them Phelps and Warren then Romine and maybe David Adams

by jetanumba2 on Dec 20, 2011 6:39 PM EST reply actions

Why give Spring Training stats instead of minor league stats…..?

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by Frank Campagnola on Dec 21, 2011 1:23 AM EST reply actions

i went onto MLB.com, and they didn’t have minor league stats, but I can look for them

by yankeesfan1325* on Dec 21, 2011 7:36 AM EST up reply actions

baseball-reference and fangraphs have minor league stats. Go there, Learn them well.

by jetanumba2 on Dec 21, 2011 8:39 AM EST up reply actions

yea, I normally do baseball reference, but I did mlb.com that time

by yankeesfan1325* on Dec 21, 2011 9:16 AM EST up reply actions

by Rorschach44 on Dec 22, 2011 11:11 AM EST reply actions

I think he feels that

adding more players to trade to the Cubs, no matter how worthless, increases the overall value of what we give to the Cubs, which should theoretically add to be enough for Garza.

by bloppy_ploppy on Dec 22, 2011 11:23 PM EST up reply actions