To Sign Yu Darvish Vs. Not To Sign Darvish; The Wrap-Up Post
by Brandon C. on Nov 9, 2011 3:00 PM EST
in New York Yankees Analysis
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PrintSorry for the extreme number of Darvish posts lately folks, we promise this is the last for a little while.
Frankie Camp and Yankees2 both made their arguments, and now it is time for you to vote for who made the stronger argument.
If either of the two writers convinced you to change your mind, please explain why!
Vote in the poll, and for those of you that do not want the Yankees to sign Darvish, who do you want the Yankees to sign?
Available starting pitchers include Edwin Jackson, Mark Buehrle, C.J. Wilson, and Roy Oswalt, among others. The Yankees also could offer Freddy Garcia, a Type B free agent, arbitration.
The trade market is not clear right now, but possible candidates include Trevor Cahill, Gio Gonzalez, Chad Billingsley, Jair Jurrjens, and many more.
Frankie Camp's argument against signing Darvish.
Yankees2's argument for signing Darvish.
Thoughts? Vote in the poll!
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I still don't want Darvish, even if he is extremely talented no japanese starting pitcher
has lasted long even though none of them were as talented as Darvish
Romine Sucks , Jesus is better end of story
thats why kuroda hasnt played has played awful for the last 4 seasons
Hideki Matsui: "Kick ass. Pop champagne. And get some ho's."
Remember, Yu Durvish isn't Japanese
He’s Iranian. I think. So maybe everything will be alright!!!
I agree with Frankie
But Y2 made a great argument. I almost want the Yanks to sign him after reading it. Almost.
Stainer of mountaintops.
Darvish or bust...
Stay away from the other free agents, except perhaps Freddie on another 1 year deal, and go with prospects to fill any gaps.
Only Half Japanese
If the price is right, I’d like it if the Yanks signed this Iranian.
The last NYC Bills Fan on Earth.
I agree with Yankees2 and I think he made a better argument
Mainly because the biggest issue (from Frankie Camp’s post) is money. As a fan, I don’t really care about the organization’s money. I want to watch the Yankees win, and win often. I want them to get the best players possible (both in the short-term and the long-term).
I’d rather they “over” pay to speak to and sign Darvish than trade any of the prospects in the farm system, especially guys that are projected to rise to elite levels, such as Montero.
Conversely, the trepidation over signing Darvish because he’s “unproven in the MLB” is understandable but no different, in essence, than any free agent signing of anyone. We’ve all seen pitchers signed via free agency by the Yankees that were awesome with other teams but not so great on the Yankees. Regardless of the reasons why, the fact of the matter, to me, is that nothing is ever a sure thing. Prospects and established players are equally never guaranteed to perform at expected levels.
I also think that Frankie (and others) got hung up on the posting system. While that is a contributory factor to the overall cost, it is separate, in my mind, from the actual cost of paying Darvish to pitch.
Even if Darvish doesn’t do well, the Yankees won’t have traded any of their farm talent, any of whom (if they are ready) can be called up and fill in while Darvish adjusts to playing in MLB.
Lastly, the worst case scenario would be that we have another pitcher that can make a run at Igawa’s Scranton-WB wins record.
It’s not just over-paying, it’s historical overpaying. You’d overpay someone the second most guaranteed money ever just for potential?
The posting fee is not different than paying him to pitch. You have to spend the posting fee to get him here. In essence, and even Chirs mentioned that in his post, is that you’re paying posting fee + contract for him to pitch here.
And the worst case scenario is that Darvish makes a run at Igawa’s records while getting paid three times as much.
Contributing writer for Pinstripe Alley.
Follow me on Twitter @frankiecamp48
by Frank Campagnola on Nov 9, 2011 5:33 PM EST up reply actions
Not correct
And you never responded to me when I posted the same thing in your thread.
1-The posting fee is for the Japanese team and the loss of money from letting go of that Star player.
2-The Yankees in return, get all the merchandise/endorsement sales in Japan and NY, more tickets sold, more Japanese Yankee fans (Who will purchase future Yankee products) from and including free publicity through the Japanese reporters.
Number 2 will pay for Number 1 with even moderate success.
It is a Depreciation for the team which will be paid off during the length of the contract because of the star power of the pitcher.This totally different from signing another American Joe pitcher because the incoming money opportunities are Apples and Oranges.
The Contract will be around 9 Million which is a fair risk considering the other parts of this deal.
Proof of this would be to look at the Yankee financials for Hideki Matsui.
Comparing this kind of deal to a Barry Zito deal if you insist on combining the Posting Fee and Contract together is that Zito would not bring the endorsement and merchandise sales like Darvish would.
No, everything I said is correct.
1. Yes, the posting fee is for the Japanese team. But that doesn’t mean it is not part of getting him. In essence, the Yankees are shelling out $100M+ to get him, not just the 5-6 year, $72-75M it will take to pay him annually. Just because the posting fee doesn’t go to Darvish doesn’t mean the posting fee is irrelevant to landing him.
2. I never disputed this, and never brought any of it up. So I don’t know why you’re bringing it up now.
What star power? People who haven’t proven anything don’t have star power.
The contract will way more than $9M. If you read my article, or Kuri’s from a few days ago, you’d see that both of us quoted an article that mentioned him receiving a contract in the 5-6 year range from $72-75M. That’s not $9M.
And I didn’t compare anything to Barry Zito.
Contributing writer for Pinstripe Alley.
Follow me on Twitter @frankiecamp48
by Frank Campagnola on Nov 9, 2011 7:24 PM EST up reply actions
Did GODZILLA have Star Power?
Matsui was best hitter ever in Japan. He was followed…every single game by the a nation.
Darvish is the best pitcher ever in Japan. He is a STAR.
Dice K was big with his 2.93 era….Darvish has a FULL RUN LOWER career era.
Yu Darvish is a Super Star.
You never disputed that that Yankees would get back the posting fee in merchandise/endorsements and growth of its fan base? Yet it is still an issue to you? You do not know why I am bringing up why the Yankees would look at this deal in a much different light than you would?
Business is COG’s, Sales & Bottom Line…Darvish brings more to the Sales and Bottom line because he has Star Power in Japan.
I have read on River Avenue Blues and a few other reputable Blogs that.. The Yankees ( like no other team save maybe the Red Sox) will make up the posting fee through Merchandise/Endorsements.
Darvish has no power once he has been posted….it is make a deal with that team or stay in Japan for another year.
Dice K received 8.4 M per…most areas have said it would be around 9 M to get him signed so regardless of what you think the number is…9M is more than acceptable number for him and Cashman will not go higher because he has no reason to.
I brought up Barry Zito because you keep saying 100+ million AND that is what Barry Zito was given.
AND YES Jetanumba2…it has been reported before that the Yankees made a good amount of money off Matsui in Japan.
what is this?
Proof of this would be to look at the Yankee financials for Hideki Matsui.
did the Yankees gain an extra $100M from Matsui that I don’t know about? If you have proof of this, please share because people here have often hypothesized about the ‘Japanese market benefits’ and whether we can quantify it. If you have no proof though don’t talk about it.
That's a harsh response to a valid point
In these cases, because the financials are private, all we can do is hypothesize about what they might have made from the extra market/fan base. Just because he (or anyone) can’t find numbers that aren’t publicly available, it doesn’t mean we can’t discuss it, because it is a fact of doing business with international players and tapping international fan bases.
The Yankees will never release their true financial statements, as a privately-owned business, and we will never know the numbers (other than their payroll and overall revenue numbers). I don’t think it precludes us from discussing the possibilities (and the market potential in Asia is huge).
overall revenue numbers
if their revenue numbers drastically went up between 2003 and 2009 than we can probably say Matsui was a factor. But Alex Rodriguez would also probably be a factor. It’s fine if we want to discuss it, but he threw it out there as if mentioning it alone was concrete evidence to his point. Even the argument “Montero can’t catch because no one thinks he can catch” is more valid than “Proof of this would be to look at the Yankee financials for Hideki Matsui.” there’s nothing there backing up that statement.
of course there is
it has been reported many times. The Yankees and Red Sox both have made large impacts in Japan because of Matsui and Dice K. It also has been concluded by press reports that the posting fee would be made up for Darvish even if he had moderate success here.
I do not see anyone else linking every comment they make either but feel free to look it up.
The posting fee and the player contract
are two separate transactions. The only way in which they are linked is if the player doesn’t sign a contract with the winning bidder, the posting team doesn’t get the bid money. In my opinion, the posting fee is the cost of doing business with the Japanese team, while the contract is the cost of doing business with the player. I also think, as has been stated by others, that the cost of the posting fee would be treated similarly to a operational expense such as marketing. It does not have an impact on payroll.
Also, your estimate of “guaranteed money” for Darvish is factually untrue. Darvish only gets what is offered in the contract, not the contract plus the posting fee. Even if the Yankees pay out a total of $130M, such as in your estimate, Darvish would only be getting the contract portion ($72-75M over 5 or 6 years) as guaranteed money, which puts him at ~$12-12.5M per year, hardly in the ballpark of any of the other pitchers you mentioned such as Sabathia ($23M+ per year) or Lee ($21M+ per year starting in 2012). The posting fee, again, is only guaranteed money for the Japanese team.
If Darvish was just a free agent, would you still be against signing him for the same contract ($72-75M over 5 or 6 years), even if he never pitched in the majors prior to signing with the Yankees?
I know what the posting fee/system is and how it works. Again, just because it doesn’t specifically go to Darvish doesn’t mean the money isn’t tied to him.
For this purpose, the fee needs to be considered because the team did spend it to get the player, even if it did not go to the player directly.
The Yankees need to spend X amount of money to gain the rights to speak to him. Then, they need to spend Y amount of money to sign him.
X + Y = Total money spent on getting Darvish in pinstripes.
Therefore, my estimate is not untrue, and is entirely possible, based on the word of executives and scouts who have predicted his posting fee and contract.
Contributing writer for Pinstripe Alley.
Follow me on Twitter @frankiecamp48
by Frank Campagnola on Nov 10, 2011 12:26 AM EST up reply actions
I didn't mean your contract estimates
just that it’s all guaranteed money for Darvish, which you present as if it were the same as CC’s or Cliff Lee’s contracts.
Not that it’s all guaranteed necessarily for Darivsh, but all of that money will go to getting Darvish.
Contributing writer for Pinstripe Alley.
Follow me on Twitter @frankiecamp48
by Frank Campagnola on Nov 10, 2011 3:13 AM EST up reply actions
reply fail?
+1 to phonty’s take on the hurling darvish…
by sing_or_die_1818 on Nov 10, 2011 1:59 AM EST up reply actions
I'm Team Frank
Darvish seems nice and all and yeah, he is basically a prospect, but you still wouldn’t give a prospect a multi-million dollar deal. 4-5/$50M deal? fine that’s doable, but then you throw another $40-50M in there for a posting fee and you’re looking at a guy who needs to be worth a $100M contract as opposed to a $50M contract.
I would love to know how much the Yankees earn from Japanese sources
when they have a prominent Japanese player on their team. I know when matsui was a Yankee there were tons of Japanese ads as well as tv cameras, and likely merchandise in japan being sold. I imagine this isnt an insignificant source of revenue.
Could this possibly add up to the posting fee and even out that expense over the life of his contract? A 40 Million fee over 5 years would mean 8 million in revenue per season, that doesn’t sound unreasonable if they are getting a TV contract over there.
A comparable comparison might be to Chien Ming Wang as well
The entire island of Taiwan would wake up at 4 in the morning to watch his starts, and any Taiwanese that visited the US eastern seaboard would inevitably make the pilgrimage to Yankee stadium, even when he wasn’t starting. There was so much Yankees paraphernalia there, it was insane.
It does AND I think
to write an article without taking the additional income into account is an injustice to the player and the team acquiring him.
Knowing that additional income from Merchandise/Endorsements/TV contracts/Radio contracts/growth of the Yankee fan base going forward….makes it understandable why the Japanese team gets the posting fee and why the team would be willing to pay it.
To ignore this income but to add the whole lump sum together and then compare it to an American contract is a clear misinformation to the public.
In Japan…Baseball is a big deal.
Here in America there is a market for the Manchester United Soccer team and other teams…people watch it…but not to the same extent as Japanese baseball fans watch baseball.
Think about it.
Which one is the vampire and which one is the werewolf? I'm team werewolf.
I don’t think the sum spent on Darvish acquisition will justify itself on the field. Regardless of how many ads we can’t fathom for Japanese constrcution equipment go up on the outfield wall, the investment only makes sense if the player’s on the field contribution justifies the total dollar outlay of putting him on the field.
Would anyone here be happy if the Yankees had players from all over Asia, ads in four different languages on the walls, made an extra $75m, and finished fourth? I didn’t think so. As Brian Cashman’s public remarks yesterday validate, large and long free agent contracts rarely pan out, but the team and its fans are having a tough time learning that lesson.
by designatedquitter on Nov 10, 2011 11:07 AM EST reply actions
That is a huge generalization
because we are talking about 1 pitcher who is the best ever from that country…not every Japanese player and every 6 year contract.
He is also 25 years old with a solid build so if the Yankees gave a 6 year contract to a pitcher….like CC’s and AJ’s…wouldn’t a young pitcher with a great arm and size be the kind of player you would give a contract like that to>?
To be honest, no
A 6-year contract is a bit extreme for someone who has never pitched on the major league level. A 3-4 year deal is much more reasonable.
"WHO WOULD LEAD?! THE CLOWN?!"
by I'mGivingYouARaise on Nov 10, 2011 4:12 PM EST up reply actions
I think he'll get 5
Let us all congratulate the Boston Red Sox for becoming the first World Champions in the history of sports to NOT make the postseason! Thats not easy to do!
2 GREAT PITCHERS TO DOMINATE LEAGUE
DARVISH AND CUBAN PHENOM WHAT A DYNAMIC DUAL AND SABATHIA AND BUERHLE
Jeter has faced him in WBC
I wonder how Jeter thinks about Darvish?? He has faced him so should have some firsthand impression. Anyone heard anything?
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