New York Yankees News and Notes: 11/04/11

Fangraphs throws an idea out into the universe that is more speculation than rumor, but it almost makes too much sense not to think about it:

The Giants should trade Tim Lincecum.

It may seem ridiculous, but pitching is a strength for San Francisco, and Lincecum is already making $13 million a season with two arbitration dates left.  San Francisco has a huge need for hitting, and the Yankees have Jesus Montero, a great hitting prospect with a lot of questions about what position he can realistically play in New York.  And unlike the Zach Greinke and Dan Haren deals, Lincecum is not priced below market - he'll probably earn $35-$40 million over the next two seasons - and the element of salary relief in this deal should keep the cost in prospects from being astronomical.

  • The Yankee Analysts takes a look at who's lining up to be the Yankees 6th, 7th, and 8th starters next season.  Solid, if unspectacular is the best way to describe it.  It seems like many solid, mid-level starters were unheralded as prospects (Ivan Nova, anyone?).  I'd love to see Hector Noesi, Adam Warren, or David Phelps get a real shot at starting in the majors next year.
  • I hate this, but it's true: there's just no way the Mariners trade Felix Hernandez any time soon.  Even though they're unlikely to contend soon, his contract combined with his talent provide Seattle with such an absurd amount of value that there's no way the Mariners could get an equal return, short of a Dodgers-type ownership situation.  
  • Fangraphs takes a closer look at stolen base break-even rates and comes to some interesting conclusions.  The old adage was that you need to be successful somewhere around 75% of the time for the risk/reward scenario to start making sense, but this changes things:

Stealing home: What some dub as the most exciting play in baseball sees an even bigger split based on the number of outs in the inning. With zero outs in the inning, an 87% success rate is required. With one out, a 70% success rate is required. Finally, with two outs only a 34% success rate is required........Does anyone else think Jacoby Ellsbury, Brett Gardner or Michael Bourn can steal home at a greater than 34% clip?

I'd love to see them try.  This seems like the kind of thing that's up there with Johnny Damon's double-steal in Game 4 of the 2009 World Series.

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