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Interview With Yankee Source's David P.

Yankee Source is one of the best sites out there for Yankees information and opinions on players. David P. agreed to do an interview with us, and he even provided his own introduction!

Hi, here are my answers to the prior email you have sent. For an intro you can just put the following.

David P. from YankeeSource - Scouting the Pacific Rim, primarily NPB and Taiwan but also spends time in Latin America prior to International Free Agent signings. Currently, in Taiwan scouting the Chinese Taipei National Team in the MLB Taiwan Series.

Brandon C: You have seen a lot of Yu Darvish. Could you give a scouting report?

David P.: Darvish can throw up to seven pitches, four seam fastball, two seam fastball (shuuto), cutter, slider, curve, changeup, forkball or splitter. His fastball, slider, curve, and fork are all excellent pitches (above average), his cutter is good but it's a developing pitch. Darvish is primarily a fastball-slider pitcher and his velocity has increased from previous years, pitching anywhere from 94-97 on his four seam fastball.

He doesn't use his changeup much and prefers to get ahead with the fastball and then finishing off hitters with the hard biting slider. He has two variants of the slider, one that moves away from righties and one that breaks straight down. Darvish also has good mound presence and confidence, along with excellent command. His real advantage is the ability to throw all his pitches for strikes and hitters have a tough time predicting a pattern to exploit. Furthermore, his build is much better than that of most Japanese pitchers. He's tall and muscular and has a powerful frame that could be capable of handling the innings load. That's something to always consider when evaluating Japanese pitchers.

With all that said, there are still questions about how he will adjust to the MLB. As we've seen before, it's not that easy.

BC: If you could compare Darvish to any current MLB pitcher who would it be?

DP: Excellent question and I've sat down for hours trying to figure this one out. The best I can do for this answer is Tim Lincecum. Of course Tim is an established ace in the MLB but I can't really compare Darvish to any other active major leaguer.

BC: Do you think the Yankees should try to get Darvish, wait for 2013 free agent class, or other?

Star-divide

DP: It's hard to predict the future on Darvish but it's also difficult to land a young prospect like Darvish for just money. Darvish will only cost money, and the Yankees won't even lose draft picks for him. He's a lot younger than C.J. Wilson as well. I expect them to make a competitive bid in the attempt to win the Darvish sweepstakes but if not I think they'll make a trade for a starter because they have prospects to make a trade.

Also it wouldn't surprise me if Phil Hughes was put in a package for a solid starter either. I love the 2013 class of free agents and if I were the GM I'd still probably go hard after Darvish. If I lose out, I'd sign Garcia and go to battle for a year with CC, Burnett, Hughes or Noesi, Nova, Garcia and feel comfortable that I have other pitchers such as Hughes or Noesi, Warren, and Phelps who can all come in and replace an injured starter.

BC: Are there any other pitchers/hitters that jump out that may be posted this off-season? Any names we should look out for?

DP: Tsuyoshi Wada, Hisashi Iwakuma, Kyuji Fujikawa. Hiroyuki Nakajima, Munenori Kawasaki, Norichika Aoki, Wei Yin Chen (Chen has no posting fee, free agent). Out of this list I like Chen the most although his injury concerns are greater, and Aoki is a pretty good hitter. Of course this list can change as some of the players may not be posted.

BC: Many people think of Japanese ball as AAA American baseball. Is that the case, or are Japanese players just as talented as players in the MLB?

DP: There is talent in Japan but I label it as an AAA+ league. The good players tear up the league, like Ichiro, Matsui, Dice-K, Darvish. Pitchers like Igawa were just good pitchers here when they made the move to the MLB, and those that fit that non-superstar profile has a much greater chance to fail and as we saw with Kei, it happens.

BC: Going back to the American front, what do you think of the Yankees cutting Andrew Brackman? Do you think he will get a MLB deal elsewhere, re-sign with the Yankees on a minor league deal, or other.

DP: Great move by the Yankees cutting Brackman, they already gave him a ton of money and stayed patient with some hope that he'll figure it out. He's 26 in December and there's really no reason to spend more on him, his mechanics may get better but the Yankees now view him as a reliever and there are plenty of good relievers on the Yankees. He's expendable. I'm sure he'll get a minor league deal somewhere, definitely not another major league deal. I don't think he'll be back with the Yankees and it's a longshot at best.

BC: Who is the best hitter from any country you have scouted? Pitcher?

DP: The best hitter from any country award will probably go to Hideki Matsui. Tremendous power, hits to all fields, excellent strike zone judgment. Ichiro has better bat control but Matsui is the greatest power hitter to come from Japan. The best pitcher will go to Darvish hands down. I've not scouted anyone near his potential although there are some young Japanese stars like Masahiro Tanaka who might steal away that honor in the future.

BC: Are there any former MLB players currently playing in Japan that have excelled? Any possible returns to the majors?

DP: Currently, there's only Matt Murton who is standing out. However I think he's staying put in Japan and if he returns he might be a decent player on a non-contender. Former Yankee Darrell Rasner is also having success as a closer in Japan.

BC:  What is the max deal you would offer Yu Darvish if you are in charge of the Yankees?

DP: This is a tricky question. I'll just go slightly higher than the Dice-K deal and say 6 years from anywhere between 57-60 million. That's a reasonable deal and one which he probably would accept. Of course the luxury tax will make the total cost on that 60 million a bit higher.

BC: Any other thoughts/comments/notes Yankees fans may be interested in?

DP: Expect a pitcher or two to be signed this free agency. The Yankees do not want to enter 2012 with the same questions lingering around in the rotation and they know that they may have caught lightning in a bottle with Bartolo Colon pitching exceptionally well for most of the year. They will probably bring back Freddy Garcia and from the looks of it are leaning more towards Darvish than Wilson. Most people doubt Garcia's talent but the Yankees knew what they were getting from Garcia before they signed him, which is a pitcher who will give you a ton of quality starts if healthy.

Offensively the Yankees are set. It would be nice to see Eric Chavez and Andruw Jones back because both look to have some ability left with the bat and Jones is a potent offensive player against left handed pitching.

**

Thanks again to David for the in depth answers. Thoughts?

Comment 33 comments  |  2 recs  | 

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About what I would do as far as going forward

I’d love to see Hughes live up to potential as a Yankees starter, but if they don’t think he can do that here and they don’t have any other options, trading him for a starter may be the best move to make. As it is, I would call him a definite maybe for next year’s rotation. CC is a definite, Nova is a definite maybe (leaning more toward definite), AJ is a definite maybe, Garcia (if he comes back) would be a definite innings-eater. A definite ace and a definite 5th starter along with 3 borderline pitchers is concerning (despite that this year we got the best record in the league with 1 definite and 4 question marks)

by pastor2b on Nov 3, 2011 9:47 AM EDT reply actions  

We'd be selling low on Hughes

Don’t see what the point of that is. He’s an arbitration eligible player who is coming off a bad year and a half. That isn’t going to bring back much. I’d hang on to him and hope for the best.

by Let's Talk About Tex Baby on Nov 3, 2011 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

testus

That, is all

Last night, a comedian died in New York. Somebody knows why. Somebody knows

by Rorschach44 on Nov 3, 2011 9:48 AM EDT reply actions  

I'm unsure of my opinion on the Yankees signing Darvish

Admittedly, I haven’t paid much attention to him since it seems like another over-hyped situation like past prospects.

Maybe I should let bygones be bygones? Is there reason to believe this kid is gonna be excellent? Are we going to regret having to hit against him if another team signs him??

David P. brought up a very notable point about the ability to get a good young pitcher for just money…

"Madison Square Garden is the ultimate basketball stage. That's where I belong. That's where I live. That's the home of the New York Knicks." - Amar'e Stoudemire

by Chris Child's Fist on Nov 3, 2011 11:09 AM EDT reply actions  

Every scouting report on Darvish that I’ve read for the past 3 or 4 years has raved about him. If he joins the majors, his numbers may slightly regress but they are still that of a frontline quality starter.

by Scooby Snacks on Nov 3, 2011 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions  

His numbers will definitely regress, he’s not going to throw a 1.5 ERA in the MLB, but even if it doubles to a 3 ERA, that’s still ace quality.

The Savior has come, and he is glorious. #63

by Wraithpk on Nov 3, 2011 8:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

Also his numbers in Japan are way better than Dice-K's or Igawa's

He’s just pitched 5 straight seasons with ERA’s under 2.00 and WHIPs at or under 1.00. It doesn’t guarantee he’ll be a success over here, but he just seems like he has so much of a better chance than any pitcher that’s come over before him.

by Let's Talk About Tex Baby on Nov 3, 2011 9:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

Not only is it just money...

There is no luxury tax on the posting fee. So if you look at Darvish vs. C.J. Wilson that way…

Darvish will cost about $50 mil for the posting fee and another $65 mil or so over six years on his contract if we use Dice-K as precedent. The Yankees would pay the 40% luxury tax on the $65 mil for a total cost of around $141 million over 6 years.

C.J. Wilson will cost around $90 mil for 5 years if we use A.J. Burnett and John Lackey’s contracts as precedent. Add the 40% luxury tax and you get $126 mil over 5 years.

So Darvish has a higher upside on the mound, he’s younger, he doesn’t cost a draft pick AND his actual cost is only marginally higher.

by Let's Talk About Tex Baby on Nov 3, 2011 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

The luxury tax

is based on total payroll for a year, not for a contract.

If Darvish gets $65M over six years, which comes out to $10.8M per yer (more or less depending how they structure the contract), it depends on what that adds to the overall payroll for the year in question (the threshold for the luxury tax in 2012 is probably slightly more than $178m, which was the 2011 threshold).

by phonty on Nov 3, 2011 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

True but

Odds are Yankees will be 20+ mil over the luxury tax threshhold for the next six years, so while the Darvish/Wilson contracts aren’t specifically being taxed, for comparative purposes, they could be fit entirely into the taxable portion of the payroll.

by Let's Talk About Tex Baby on Nov 3, 2011 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

Your luxury tax logic seems questionable.

But regardless, would it be fair to assume that CJ Wilson and Yu Darvish are gonna cost around the same $$?

Basically, in a quick and dirty summary… Darvish might have a higher upside and plenty of youth but he is mostly unproven (a few games against MLB All-Stars doesn’t convince me much) vs CJ Wilson who has 2 good seasons under his belt, but is probably at his ceiling and hasn’t shown himself to be a real knockout in the postseason.

I think I’d put my money towards Darvish. He could very well be another Matsusaka or Igawa, but I’d like to think he might be better than early Nomo?? Fun!

"Madison Square Garden is the ultimate basketball stage. That's where I belong. That's where I live. That's the home of the New York Knicks." - Amar'e Stoudemire

by Chris Child's Fist on Nov 3, 2011 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

So by your math, the difference between Wilson and Darvish is the following:

1 extra year of Darvish
$15 Million more overall for Darvish
1 less first-round draft pick going to the Texas Rangers for Darvish

Yeah, I think I’d go for Darvish, too

by pastor2b on Nov 3, 2011 4:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

The issue I have with these hyped Japanese pitchers including Darvish is they often rely on throwing 7+ pitches to be successful.. I do not think major league hitters struggle for long against guys that throw average quality pitches, no matter how many different ones they can mix in.

by Egan on Nov 3, 2011 9:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

He doesn't throw 7 "average-quality pitches"
Darvish can throw up to seven pitches, four seam fastball, two seam fastball (shuuto), cutter, slider, curve, changeup, forkball or splitter. His fastball, slider, curve, and fork are all excellent pitches (above average), his cutter is good but it’s a developing pitch. Darvish is primarily a fastball-slider pitcher and his velocity has increased from previous years, pitching anywhere from 94-97 on his four seam fastball.

He has 4 above-average ones along with a couple more developing pitches.

by pastor2b on Nov 3, 2011 9:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

Here.

A lot of FSFB and sliders while mixing in the change, cutter and TSFB.

Rec Generating Database
Jedi Master A-Rod is a poster on Pinstripe Alley. He can be reached by clicking the "Reply" button below his comments.

by Jedi Master A-Rod on Nov 3, 2011 9:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

This just confirms why I like Yu Darvish.

Get’em, Yankees.

Great interview. Moar interviews, please!

I have never heard of this Yankees website. Its been bookmarked.

by E-ROC on Nov 3, 2011 12:49 PM EDT reply actions  

If you have a twitter, I highly suggest following @YankeeSource. He’s very friendly and will likely chat with you if you send him a tweet. He’s a pretty smart guy as well.

"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring." --Rogers Hornsby

by Chris McKeown on Nov 4, 2011 10:15 AM EDT up reply actions  

YESNetwork YES Network
We polled 3 writers and they all said Yu Darvish is coming to the Yankees. MLB Free Agent Forecast: bit.ly/uhHzeg

"WHO WOULD LEAD?! THE CLOWN?!"

by I'mGivingYouARaise on Nov 3, 2011 1:22 PM EDT reply actions  

3 writers huh...

Fiensand, Sherman and Wally Matthews.

Last night, a comedian died in New York. Somebody knows why. Somebody knows

by Rorschach44 on Nov 3, 2011 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

Actually, one of them is your buddy, Ed Valentine

The Savior has come, and he is glorious. #63

by Wraithpk on Nov 3, 2011 8:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

I sure hope so

I’m sure we’ll be ok even without him, but I predict the rotation will be better with Darvish than without him!

by pastor2b on Nov 3, 2011 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

This may make me a bad Yankee Fan, but...

I’m sick of seeing The Yanks trade away their future for the present. Granted, Japanese pitchers don’t have a great track record in MLB, but I can’t help but think that paying for Darvish and keeping Jesus/Betances/Man-Ban is better than trading for somebody else, or sacrificing a draft choice.

Yes, trading would be safer, but, IMO bringing Darvish along more slowly, like any other AAA potential Ace would let him acclimate to the American game and minimize the chances of a bust.

Of course, that’s just my opinion. I could be wrong.

by Raptor22 on Nov 3, 2011 4:36 PM EDT reply actions  

Welll.....

I’m not sure the Yanks would be losing any players if they signed Darvish.

Right now, it looks like Betances and Banuelos are still pretty raw. I think 2013 should have their names penciled into the rotation provided that 2012 goes well. Those guys are both pretty young and inexperienced and at least Darvish has been pitching at a higher level for the last couple years already. If what I read is true, he seems like a much more MLB-Ready prospect right now.

I do agree with you about trading away futures though. I find the Yanks infinitely more exciting when we have a crop of young guys who have developed in our minor league system than just a team of all-stars signed and traded for. I think right now we have an awesome mix of that too.

"Madison Square Garden is the ultimate basketball stage. That's where I belong. That's where I live. That's the home of the New York Knicks." - Amar'e Stoudemire

by Chris Child's Fist on Nov 3, 2011 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

The problem with 2013 is where to put them

AJ is signed through the 2013 season, I’m not sure when Nova’s contract runs out but I don’t think he’s going anywhere, same thing with Hughes. As of right now, the only options to be replaced in the rotation are AJ (if he has another bad year next year, they could move him to the pen) and Hughes (if he does not rebound next year, he could also be moved to the pen). Barring injury or an absolutely horrible season, CC, Darvish (if they get him), and Nova are locked into the rotation for the foreseeable future. After 2013, one of the prospects could take AJ’s place in the rotation, but the only way I see one of them in the rotation for 2013 is if someone gets hurt or pitches so horribly that they can’t justify leaving him on the roster.

by pastor2b on Nov 3, 2011 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

Having more quality arms than you know what to do with...

…isn’t a bad thing. Usually rotation surpluses tend to sort themselves out, unfortunately, and you end up with not enough pitching rather than too much.

by Let's Talk About Tex Baby on Nov 3, 2011 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

Even if we don't get Darvish, we should be fine going forward

Another year of Garcia, and we can replace him with one of our 5 or 6 MLB-ready (by then) top-flight pitching prospects. Another 2 years of AJ, and we can replace him with another one of our 5 or 6 MLB-ready top-flight pitching prospects. If Hughes has a bad season, we can replace him with yet another of our 5 or 6 MLB-ready top-flight pitching prospects. If someone gets hurt, we have at least 1 or 2 ready to go now who could take their place for a few weeks, or even the rest of the season. I’m sure that at least 3 out of Hughes, Phelps, Warren, Noesi, Banuelos, and Betances will be able to make it as MLB starting pitchers. If they get Darvish, the odds are that much better that we’ll be able to fill in the rest of the rotation with prospects in a year or 2.

by pastor2b on Nov 3, 2011 6:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well, like any other prospect, one he reaches his ceiling in AAA, he needs to face the stronger competition of the Majors

Darvish is coming from a league which is slightly better than equivalent to AAA. He was demolishing all competition in that league. As such, he should be put in the majors. I don’t know if I’d start him off as the number 2 starter, but certainly in the rotation.

I’m not sure if you are arguing for putting him in AAA to start, but if so, I think that would be the equivalent of putting Montero in AAA for most of 2011: The guy’s done everything he can in that league; he needs to be in the majors now.

by pastor2b on Nov 3, 2011 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

That's what I'm saying:

Buying Darvish means not sacrificing a young guy, and not rushing Man-Ban or Betances into the lineup. (to CCF’s post)

Also, I meant that they should stick him in the 4 or 5 spot, and sometimes short-rest CC to give Darvish some extra rest,or pull him after the 6th/80 ptiches/etc (provided the bullpen still kicks ass). Let make sure he can walk before expecting him to run.

by Raptor22 on Nov 3, 2011 5:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

we don't want to molly-coddle him too much

Remember the failures of the “Joba Rulez” and “Hughes Rulez.” Let him get into a rhythm. If he gets in trouble, yank him. If not, let him keep going. Don’t try to reduce his innings or pitches artificially; that will get him out of his rhythm.

by pastor2b on Nov 3, 2011 6:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

Like I’ve said in other posts, they pitch every 7 days in Japan. Yu should be throwing every 6th day in his first year here, then go to every 5th day in his second year. We obviously have to transition him to pitching every 5 days like everyone in the MLB does, but it needs to be gradual. Jumping him up 2 days at once might be tough to handle.

The Savior has come, and he is glorious. #63

by Wraithpk on Nov 3, 2011 8:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

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