Looking Back At The 2006 Japanese Player Signings
As we try to predict where and when Yu Darvish will sign, let's take a look back at other famous Japanese player signings, how look the deals took, and how long the overall process took.
November 16, 2006: Posted by the Hanshin Tigers.
November 29, 2006- Yankees announced as highest bidder.
December 27, 2006- Signed contract with New York Yankees, officially joining the team.
November 2, 2006: Posted by the Seibu Lions.
November 14, 2006: Red Sox announced as highest bidder.
December 14, 2006: Signed contract with Boston Red Sox, held news conference to announce the deal.
November 10, 2006: Posted by the Tokyo Yakult Swallows.
November 14, 2006: Rays announced as highest bidder.
December 15, 2006: Rays sign Iwamura.
2006 was a big year for Japanese players signing in the MLB, and if it is any indication of how the process works for Darvish, the process will move quickly.
Look for Darvish to be posted, then the winning bidder announced one to two weeks later, and the contract announced a month after that.
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The posting system for players from Japan has reached such a level of absurdity that I would just avoid it altogether.
I know that the posting fee doesn’t count as salary, but it’s still real money. When the Red Sox laid out $103 million to acquire and sign Dice-K, it was 4th largest amount ever spent on a pitcher, a pitcher whose only experience against MLB level competition came in the World Baseball Classic.
It just makes no sense.
Jesus Montero has to be a full-time catcher, or the Yankees have to trade him. One or the other. Based on the age and contracts of the other players on this team, that's the only place he fits long-term on the Yankees roster.
I agree, but how would you fix or change it?
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by Brandon C. on Nov 2, 2011 11:35 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I don't know how
the contract structure works in Japan, but are the players lifetime property of the teams for whom they play? I doubt it. When a players’ contract is up, he can become a free agent, no? It’s actually disgusting to me that these teams sell their players rights as some kind of slave-like commodity.
Romine!
If they're out of contract, I would imagine they're free to go.
But if they are under contract, then how else is this gonna be done? You can’t sign these teams best players while they’re still under contract, without giving them something. It’s essentially the same as the transfer system in soccer, which has worked fine for ages.
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Treat them like “Super Two’s” as Dave Cameron pointed out. I think that makes the most sense, but even then, you’re still giving a ton of guaranteed money to players who have almost zero experience against MLB competition.
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by Frank Campagnola on Nov 2, 2011 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions
Can you explain Cameron’s idea a little further?
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by Brandon C. on Nov 2, 2011 12:14 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
The jist of Cameron’s article was about how players tend to be paid based on the amount of leverage they have.
Elite free agent have maximum leverage; they can play for whomever they choose, and take part in a true free market.
Super Twos have minimal leverage; their team controls them no matter what, but will have to pay them something next year, so they have some factors that play to their favor but not many.
Japanese players put through the posting system have the least leverage of all. They can only negotiate with one major league team, and if they cannot agree upon an acceptable offer, the player is returned to his Japanese team at no expense to the winning bidder.
Given the lack of leverage, MLB teams should value Japanese stars the way they value stars who are early in their arbitration years. The logical conclusion is that this approach (correctly) prices most teams out of the Yu Darvish market.
Jesus Montero has to be a full-time catcher, or the Yankees have to trade him. One or the other. Based on the age and contracts of the other players on this team, that's the only place he fits long-term on the Yankees roster.
I agree, but how would you fix or change it?
You can’t “fix” it, not directly at least. This may be outside the boundaries of the collective bargaining agreement, and if isn’t I suspect it ranks right up there with minor league meal money in terms of priorities.
I do think that smart teams have or will figure out some way to approximate the value of Japanese players, probably similar to Victor Wang’s research on the value of draft picks. These players are not inherently bad investments, they only wind up that way because the cost of acquiring them is so high that anything other than a 100th percentile-type performance dooms the contract. The same is true of free agents and draft picks. Smart teams who learn to value players properly will step aside when the cost gets too high.
Akinori Iwamura was a great signing, for example. The Rays paid $4.5 million to acquire him and then signed him to a $7.7 million contract. For their $12.2 million outlay, he provided 6.6 WAR over three seasons. He wasn’t a superstar, but that’s still tremendous value. (As an added bonus, they traded Iwamura to Pittsburgh before the 2010 season in exchange for Jesse Chavez, who was then flipped to Atlanta for Rafael Soriano.)
Jesus Montero has to be a full-time catcher, or the Yankees have to trade him. One or the other. Based on the age and contracts of the other players on this team, that's the only place he fits long-term on the Yankees roster.
Agreed.
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by Frank Campagnola on Nov 2, 2011 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions
I mean the teams are losing their best stars to a completely different market
NPB put a system in place that protected their teams.
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Igawa signing
When Boston won the posting rights in 2006 with Matsuzaka, it appeared to me the Yankees had a panic attack. The Yankees responded by posting and signing Igawa to a ridiculous contract. The world is not over if Boston obtains premiere players. Boston will continue to develop and obtain great players, accept that fact. The Yankees can’t control it (influence, yes). The Yankees need to stick with a smart strategic plan.
Hopefully the Yankees have sufficient plans and discipline in approaching the 2012 season (actually every season). (1) build and maintain a strong and balance farm system — never deplete it. This is an asset. Treat it as it is gold — protect, maintain, restock, trade appropriately and don’t deplete it. (2) Always maintain the leverage (assets) and plans to make smart, contingency moves (injuries, enhance starting pitching or relief pitchers, offense…) (3) Don’t react to every move Boston makes — stay disciplined and anticipate these scenarios and have appropriate contingencies.
Darvish looks like Doogie Howser
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