2011 Yankees, Against The Odds

by Xeifrank on Nov 15, 2011 12:49 AM EST

Here is a look at how the Yankees 2011 actual results stacked up compared to what the Vegas odds makers thought of them throughout the season. If you take the win Vegas win expectancy from all 162 of the Yankees games and add them up, you get a seasonal win expectancy of 0.5653 which translates to an expected win total of 91.57 games. If you do the same for my simulation of each Yankees game you get a seasonal win expectancy of 0.5803 or 94.01 wins. The Yankees actually went 97-65 on the season. This is what I have been seeing with teams near the top or bottom of the 2011 win totals, that their actual wins are an outlier from what both Vegas and my Simulator expected from them. Below is a list of all 162 games with the Vegas odds for every game, the list is sorted by games in which the Yankees were the largest favorite to win. (NYA = New York, American League)

Rank	Date	Away SP	Home SP	Away	Home	Fave	Fave Win Perc	NYA Win Perc	Sim NYA Win Perc	Winning Team	Away Runs	Home Runs	Total Runs
1	07-26-2011	Doug Fister	C.C. Sabathia	SEA	NYA	NYA	74.684	74.684	68.54	NYA	1	4	5
2	09-19-2011	Scott Diamond	A.J. Burnett	MIN	NYA	NYA	73.046	73.046	72.15	NYA	4	6	10
3	08-24-2011	Trevor Cahill	C.C. Sabathia	OAK	NYA	NYA	70.674	70.674	71.117	OAK	6	4	10
4	09-04-11	Brett Cecil	C.C. Sabathia	TOR	NYA	NYA	70.588	70.588	75.286	NYA	3	9	12
5	09-05-11	Jo-Jo Reyes	Freddy Garcia	BAL	NYA	NYA	70.588	70.588	70.09	NYA	10	11	21
6	09-06-11	Tommy Hunter	Phil Hughes	BAL	NYA	NYA	69.231	69.231	64.729	NYA	3	5	8
7	08-10-11	Garrett Richards	Ivan Nova	LAA	NYA	NYA	68.553	68.553	68.512	NYA	3	9	12
8	05-11-11	Vin Mazzaro	A.J. Burnett	KC	NYA	NYA	67.213	67.213	73.855	KC	4	3	7
9	06-25-2011	Aaron Cook	C.C. Sabathia	COL	NYA	NYA	67.213	67.213	70.436	NYA	3	8	11
10	07-25-2011	Jason Vargas	Freddy Garcia	SEA	NYA	NYA	66.887	66.887	65.468	NYA	3	10	13
11	09-08-11	Ivan Nova	Alfredo Simon	NYA	BAL	NYA	66.667	66.667	59.085	BAL	4	5	9
12	05-10-11	Kyle Davies	Freddy Garcia	KC	NYA	NYA	66.667	66.667	70.967	NYA	1	3	4
13	08-25-2011	Rich Harden	Phil Hughes	OAK	NYA	NYA	66.667	66.667	66.929	NYA	9	22	31
14	04-05-11	Brian Duensing	C.C. Sabathia	MIN	NYA	NYA	66.273	66.273	66.703	MIN	5	4	9
15	04-17-2011	Alexi Ogando	C.C. Sabathia	TEX	NYA	NYA	66.102	66.102	66.617	NYA	5	6	11
16	08-18-2011	C.C. Sabathia	Brian Duensing	NYA	MIN	NYA	66.102	66.102	57.546	NYA	8	4	12
17	06-30-2011	Randy Wolf	C.C. Sabathia	MIL	NYA	NYA	65.928	65.928	76.55	NYA	0	5	5
18	06-11-11	Mitch Talbot	Bartolo Colon	CLE	NYA	NYA	65.812	65.812	68.266	NYA	0	4	4
19	08-23-2011	Brandon McCarthy	Bartolo Colon	OAK	NYA	NYA	65.812	65.812	61.996	OAK	6	5	11
20	04-28-2011	Edwin Jackson	C.C. Sabathia	CHA	NYA	NYA	65.636	65.636	68.462	NYA	3	12	15
21	07-29-2011	Jeremy Guthrie	A.J. Burnett	BAL	NYA	NYA	65.217	65.217	60.537	BAL	4	2	6
22	08-11-11	Tyler Chatwood	Bartolo Colon	LAA	NYA	NYA	65.096	65.096	67.692	NYA	5	6	11
23	07-31-2011	Jake Arrieta	Freddy Garcia	BAL	NYA	NYA	65.096	65.096	68.333	NYA	2	4	6
24	09-07-11	Zach Britton	A.J. Burnett	BAL	NYA	NYA	64.851	64.851	59.645	BAL	5	4	9
25	09-14-2011	Ivan Nova	Jason Vargas	NYA	SEA	NYA	64.851	64.851	59.808	SEA	1	2	3
26	04-25-2011	Phil Humber	Ivan Nova	CHA	NYA	NYA	64.602	64.602	67.867	CHA	2	0	2
27	05-12-11	Sean O'Sullivan	Ivan Nova	KC	NYA	NYA	64.413	64.413	72.301	KC	11	5	16
28	07-30-2011	Chris Tillman	Bartolo Colon	BAL	NYA	NYA	64.286	64.286	64.281	NYA	3	8	11
29	04-14-2011	Jake Arrieta	Phil Hughes	BAL	NYA	NYA	63.899	63.899	59.386	NYA	5	6	11
30	07-23-2011	Rich Harden	A.J. Burnett	OAK	NYA	NYA	63.834	63.834	64.496	OAK	4	3	7
31	05-19-2011	C.C. Sabathia	Brad Bergesen	NYA	BAL	NYA	63.702	63.702	62.931	NYA	13	2	15
32	09-13-2011	A.J. Burnett	Charles Furbush	NYA	SEA	NYA	63.57	63.57	61.722	NYA	3	2	5
33	09-16-2011	C.C. Sabathia	Brett Cecil	NYA	TOR	NYA	63.57	63.57	64.965	TOR	4	5	9
34	08-01-11	C.C. Sabathia	Jake Peavy	NYA	CHA	NYA	63.37	63.37	58.175	NYA	3	2	5
35	05-22-2011	Mike Pelfrey	Ivan Nova	NYN	NYA	NYA	63.031	63.031	66.73	NYA	3	9	12
36	08-12-11	David Price	C.C. Sabathia	TB	NYA	NYA	62.894	62.894	68.129	TB	5	1	6
37	04-02-11	Brad Penny	A.J. Burnett	DET	NYA	NYA	62.825	62.825	62.407	NYA	6	10	16
38	04-13-2011	Chris Tillman	A.J. Burnett	BAL	NYA	NYA	62.756	62.756	58.386	NYA	4	7	11
39	05-21-2011	Chris Capuano	A.J. Burnett	NYN	NYA	NYA	62.687	62.687	61.689	NYA	3	7	10
40	05-24-2011	Ricky Romero	C.C. Sabathia	TOR	NYA	NYA	62.617	62.617	70.437	NYA	4	5	9
41	04-23-2011	C.C. Sabathia	Brad Bergesen	NYA	BAL	NYA	62.547	62.547	63.57	NYA	15	3	18
42	06-12-11	Josh Tomlin	Freddy Garcia	CLE	NYA	NYA	62.477	62.477	63.262	NYA	1	9	10
43	06-13-2011	Carlos Carrasco	A.J. Burnett	CLE	NYA	NYA	62.477	62.477	59.476	CLE	1	0	1
44	06-19-2011	C.C. Sabathia	Randy Wells	NYA	CHN	NYA	62.335	62.335	64.252	NYA	10	4	14
45	09-02-11	Brandon Morrow	Ivan Nova	TOR	NYA	NYA	62.049	62.049	63.974	NYA	2	3	5
46	05-25-2011	Jo-Jo Reyes	Freddy Garcia	TOR	NYA	NYA	62.049	62.049	58.621	NYA	3	7	10
47	06-26-2011	Juan Nicasio	Ivan Nova	COL	NYA	NYA	61.905	61.905	63.962	NYA	4	6	10
48	08-21-2011	Ivan Nova	Nick Blackburn	NYA	MIN	NYA	61.905	61.905	54.983	NYA	3	0	3
49	07-07-11	Jeff Niemann	Bartolo Colon	TB	NYA	NYA	61.686	61.686	70.682	TB	5	1	6
50	08-17-2011	Bartolo Colon	Bruce Chen	NYA	KC	NYA	61.686	61.686	59.752	KC	4	5	9
51	05-20-2011	R.A. Dickey	Freddy Garcia	NYN	NYA	NYA	61.538	61.538	61.555	NYN	2	1	3
52	07-24-2011	Gio Gonzalez	Bartolo Colon	OAK	NYA	NYA	61.538	61.538	58.875	NYA	5	7	12
53	09-21-2011	Jeremy Hellickson	C.C. Sabathia	TB	NYA	NYA	61.538	61.538	72.43	NYA	2	4	6
54	05-23-2011	Carlos Villanueva	Bartolo Colon	TOR	NYA	NYA	61.464	61.464	70.014	TOR	7	3	10
55	05-03-11	C.C. Sabathia	Brad Penny	NYA	DET	NYA	61.39	61.39	64.895	DET	2	4	6
56	06-17-2011	Freddy Garcia	Doug Davis	NYA	CHN	NYA	61.24	61.24	55.664	CHN	1	3	4
57	06-04-11	C.C. Sabathia	Ervin Santana	NYA	LAA	NYA	61.165	61.165	61.44	NYA	3	2	5
58	07-22-2011	Trevor Cahill	Phil Hughes	OAK	NYA	NYA	61.014	61.014	61.858	NYA	7	17	24
59	08-19-2011	Phil Hughes	Kevin Slowey	NYA	MIN	NYA	61.014	61.014	52.12	NYA	8	1	9
60	05-08-11	C.C. Sabathia	Alexi Ogando	NYA	TEX	NYA	60.938	60.938	60.789	NYA	12	5	17
61	04-04-11	Scott Baker	Ivan Nova	MIN	NYA	NYA	60.63	60.63	59.211	NYA	3	4	7
62	04-03-11	Max Scherzer	Phil Hughes	DET	NYA	NYA	60.317	60.317	54.017	DET	10	7	17
63	07-10-11	James Shields	C.C. Sabathia	TB	NYA	NYA	60.317	60.317	70.348	NYA	0	1	1
64	06-10-11	Fausto Carmona	Ivan Nova	CLE	NYA	NYA	60.08	60.08	64.548	NYA	7	11	18
65	05-01-11	Jesse Litsch	Ivan Nova	TOR	NYA	NYA	60	60	69.224	NYA	2	5	7
66	07-05-11	C.C. Sabathia	Carlos Carrasco	NYA	CLE	NYA	59.92	59.92	61.475	NYA	9	2	11
67	08-16-2011	Ivan Nova	Danny Duffy	NYA	KC	NYA	59.759	59.759	57.001	NYA	9	7	16
68	08-26-2011	A.J. Burnett	Tommy Hunter	NYA	BAL	NYA	59.759	59.759	50.942	BAL	5	12	17
69	08-29-2011	Freddy Garcia	Jeremy Guthrie	NYA	BAL	NYA	59.759	59.759	59.805	NYA	3	2	5
70	08-15-2011	A.J. Burnett	Felipe Paulino	NYA	KC	NYA	59.432	59.432	48.393	NYA	7	4	11
71	04-27-2011	Mark Buehrle	Bartolo Colon	CHA	NYA	NYA	59.267	59.267	59.4	NYA	1	3	4
72	05-29-2011	C.C. Sabathia	Jason Vargas	NYA	SEA	NYA	59.267	59.267	60.362	NYA	7	1	8
73	09-20-2011	Wade Davis	Ivan Nova	TB	NYA	NYA	59.267	59.267	67.54	NYA	0	5	5
74	08-30-2011	C.C. Sabathia	John Lackey	NYA	BOS	NYA	59.1	59.1	54.471	NYA	5	2	7
75	04-30-2011	Kyle Drabek	A.J. Burnett	TOR	NYA	NYA	58.848	58.848	66.765	NYA	4	5	9
76	09-25-2011	John Lackey	Ivan Nova	BOS	NYA	NYA	58.848	58.848	60.063	BOS	7	4	11
77	08-06-11	C.C. Sabathia	John Lackey	NYA	BOS	NYA	58.763	58.763	55.417	BOS	4	10	14
78	04-29-2011	Ricky Romero	Freddy Garcia	TOR	NYA	NYA	58.592	58.592	61.204	TOR	5	3	8
79	07-16-2011	C.C. Sabathia	Ricky Romero	NYA	TOR	NYA	58.592	58.592	63.047	NYA	4	1	5
80	03-31-2011	Justin Verlander	C.C. Sabathia	DET	NYA	NYA	58.506	58.506	58.91	NYA	3	6	9
81	04-15-2011	Matt Harrison	Ivan Nova	TEX	NYA	NYA	58.42	58.42	55.985	TEX	5	3	8
82	04-07-11	Francisco Liriano	A.J. Burnett	MIN	NYA	NYA	58.159	58.159	55.348	NYA	3	4	7
83	06-14-2011	Alexi Ogando	C.C. Sabathia	TEX	NYA	NYA	58.071	58.071	62.918	NYA	4	12	16
84	07-27-2011	Felx Hernandez	Phil Hughes	SEA	NYA	NYA	57.806	57.806	59.617	SEA	9	2	11
85	06-18-2011	A.J. Burnett	Ryan Dempster	NYA	CHN	NYA	57.627	57.627	51.981	NYA	4	3	7
86	07-14-2011	Bartolo Colon	Jo-Jo Reyes	NYA	TOR	NYA	57.537	57.537	53.43	TOR	7	16	23
87	07-30-2011	Zach Britton	Ivan Nova	BAL	NYA	NYA	57.537	57.537	57.59	NYA	3	17	20
88	09-17-2011	Bartolo Colon	Henderson Alvarez	NYA	TOR	NYA	57.447	57.447	56.88	NYA	7	6	13
89	06-29-2011	Shaun Marcum	A.J. Burnett	MIL	NYA	NYA	57.356	57.356	65.171	NYA	2	5	7
90	08-20-2011	A.J. Burnett	Francisco Liriano	NYA	MIN	NYA	57.356	57.356	48.646	MIN	4	9	13
91	07-21-2011	C.C. Sabathia	James Shields	NYA	TB	NYA	56.989	56.989	58.632	TB	1	2	3
92	08-13-2011	Jeremy Hellickson	Phil Hughes	TB	NYA	NYA	56.989	56.989	63.65	NYA	2	9	11
93	09-03-11	Ricky Romero	Bartolo Colon	TOR	NYA	NYA	56.71	56.71	64.966	NYA	4	6	10
94	06-24-2011	Ubaldo Jimenez	A.J. Burnett	COL	NYA	NYA	56.427	56.427	58.191	COL	4	2	6
95	09-10-11	C.C. Sabathia	Dan Haren	NYA	LAA	NYA	56.044	56.044	57.177	LAA	0	6	6
96	04-26-2011	Gavin Floyd	Ivan Nova	CHA	NYA	NYA	56.044	56.044	62.478	CHA	3	2	5
97	06-28-2011	Zach Greinke	Freddy Garcia	MIL	NYA	NYA	55.85	55.85	61.524	NYA	2	12	14
98	07-03-11	Freddy Garcia	R.A. Dickey	NYA	NYN	NYA	55.752	55.752	57.979	NYN	2	3	5
99	05-14-2011	Josh Beckett	C.C. Sabathia	BOS	NYA	NYA	55.257	55.257	63.182	BOS	6	0	6
100	06-09-11	Josh Beckett	C.C. Sabathia	BOS	NYA	NYA	55.056	55.056	60.562	BOS	8	3	11
101	06-15-2011	Derek Holland	Ivan Nova	TEX	NYA	NYA	55.056	55.056	56.772	NYA	4	12	16
102	06-05-11	Bartolo Colon	Joel Pineiro	NYA	LAA	NYA	54.649	54.649	54.505	NYA	5	3	8
103	06-08-11	Tim Wakefield	A.J. Burnett	BOS	NYA	NYA	54.649	54.649	57.772	BOS	11	6	17
104	08-28-2011	Ivan Nova	Brian Matusz	NYA	BAL	NYA	54.649	54.649	55.833	NYA	8	3	11
105	04-16-2011	Derek Holland	Freddy Garcia	TEX	NYA	NYA	54.442	54.442	52.952	NYA	2	5	7
106	07-02-11	Bartolo Colon	Dillon Gee	NYA	NYN	NYA	54.023	54.023	55.155	NYA	5	2	7
107	07-04-11	A.J. Burnett	Josh Tomlin	NYA	CLE	NYA	54.023	54.023	53.618	CLE	3	6	9
108	04-24-2011	Freddy Garcia	Chris Tillman	NYA	BAL	NYA	53.811	53.811	50.697	NYA	6	3	9
109	07-18-2011	A.J. Burnett	Alex Cobb	NYA	TB	NYA	53.596	53.596	51.48	NYA	5	4	9
110	07-17-2011	Phil Hughes	Carlos Villanueva	NYA	TOR	NYA	53.488	53.488	54.474	NYA	7	2	9
111	05-13-2011	Clay Buchholz	Bartolo Colon	BOS	NYA	NYA	53.162	53.162	57.793	BOS	5	4	9
112	07-01-11	Ivan Nova	John Niese	NYA	NYN	NYA	52.494	52.494	50.681	NYA	5	1	6
113	04-10-11	C.C. Sabathia	Josh Beckett	NYA	BOS	NYA	52.494	52.494	60.403	BOS	0	4	4
114	08-04-11	Ivan Nova	Phil Humber	NYA	CHA	NYA	52.267	52.267	49.686	NYA	7	2	9
115	04-20-2011	Bartolo Colon	Brett Cecil	NYA	TOR	NYA	51.923	51.923	56.396	NYA	6	2	8
116	08-09-11	Dan Haren	A.J. Burnett	LAA	NYA	NYA	51.807	51.807	55.868	LAA	6	4	10
117	07-09-11	David Price	A.J. Burnett	TB	NYA	NYA	51.574	51.574	53.156	NYA	4	5	9
118	08-28-2011	Bartolo Colon	Zach Britton	NYA	BAL	NYA	51.574	51.574	51.572	BAL	0	2	2
119	05-05-11	A.J. Burnett	Rick Porcello	NYA	DET	NYA	50.98	50.98	51.903	DET	3	6	9
120	08-03-11	A.J. Burnett	Gavin Floyd	NYA	CHA	NYA	50.739	50.739	49.385	NYA	18	7	25
121	04-19-2011	A.J. Burnett	Kyle Drabek	NYA	TOR	NYA	50.739	50.739	54.107	TOR	5	6	11
122	07-19-2011	Bartolo Colon	Jeremy Hellickson	NYA	TB	NYA	50.739	50.739	53.64	TB	2	3	5
123	09-25-2011	Tim Wakefield	A.J. Burnett	BOS	NYA	NYA	50	50	60.422	NYA	2	6	8
124	07-06-11	Phil Hughes	Justin Masterson	NYA	CLE	CLE	50.249	49.751	46.018	CLE	3	5	8
125	05-07-11	Bartolo Colon	Derek Holland	NYA	TEX	TEX	50.249	49.751	50.253	TEX	5	7	12
126	07-15-2011	Freddy Garcia	Brandon Morrow	NYA	TOR	TOR	50.739	49.261	49.397	TOR	1	7	8
127	06-22-2011	Freddy Garcia	Mike Leake	NYA	CIN	CIN	50.86	49.14	50.658	NYA	4	2	6
128	08-02-11	Phil Hughes	John Danks	NYA	CHA	CHA	51.1	48.9	49.982	NYA	6	0	6
129	05-06-11	Ivan Nova	Matt Harrison	NYA	TEX	TEX	51.1	48.9	54.524	NYA	4	1	5
130	09-12-11	Phil Hughes	Felx Hernandez	NYA	SEA	SEA	51.1	48.9	50.91	NYA	9	3	12
131	05-30-2011	Bartolo Colon	Trevor Cahill	NYA	OAK	OAK	51.456	48.544	49.73	NYA	5	0	5
132	09-18-2011	Freddy Garcia	Brandon Morrow	NYA	TOR	TOR	51.456	48.544	56.79	TOR	0	3	3
133	05-04-11	Freddy Garcia	Max Scherzer	NYA	DET	DET	51.807	48.193	53.037	DET	0	4	4
134	09-11-11	Freddy Garcia	Ervin Santana	NYA	LAA	LAA	51.807	48.193	53.081	NYA	6	5	11
135	05-27-2011	A.J. Burnett	Michael Pineda	NYA	SEA	SEA	52.267	47.733	44.607	SEA	3	4	7
136	06-22-2011	Freddy Garcia	Mike Leake	NYA	CIN	CIN	52.381	47.619	48.397	CIN	2	10	12
137	05-02-11	Bartolo Colon	Justin Verlander	NYA	DET	DET	52.719	47.281	49.496	NYA	5	3	8
138	09-26-2011	Hector Noesi	James Shields	NYA	TB	TB	52.941	47.059	47.132	TB	2	5	7
139	06-01-11	A.J. Burnett	Gio Gonzalez	NYA	OAK	OAK	53.38	46.62	45.899	NYA	4	2	6
140	06-16-2011	C.J. Wilson	Brian Gordon	TEX	NYA	TEX	53.488	46.512	50.806	NYA	2	3	5
141	06-07-11	Jon Lester	Freddy Garcia	BOS	NYA	BOS	54.023	45.977	51.452	BOS	6	4	10
142	05-18-2011	Bartolo Colon	Zach Britton	NYA	BAL	BAL	54.128	45.872	45.827	NYA	4	1	5
143	06-20-2011	Ivan Nova	Johnny Cueto	NYA	CIN	CIN	54.649	45.351	44.956	NYA	5	3	8
144	05-31-2011	Freddy Garcia	Brett Anderson	NYA	OAK	OAK	55.457	44.543	38.399	NYA	10	3	13
145	04-08-11	Phil Hughes	John Lackey	NYA	BOS	BOS	55.556	44.444	47.449	BOS	6	9	15
146	05-15-2011	Jon Lester	Freddy Garcia	BOS	NYA	BOS	55.947	44.053	49.335	BOS	7	5	12
147	05-28-2011	Ivan Nova	Felx Hernandez	NYA	SEA	SEA	56.044	43.956	44.474	SEA	4	5	9
148	09-09-11	Bartolo Colon	Jered Weaver	NYA	LAA	LAA	56.236	43.764	50.272	LAA	1	2	3
149	09-28-2011	Hector Noesi	David Price	NYA	TB	TB	56.427	43.573	43.534	TB	7	8	15
150	05-16-2011	A.J. Burnett	David Price	NYA	TB	TB	56.803	43.197	43.882	TB	5	6	11
151	09-22-2011	Matt Moore	Bartolo Colon	TB	NYA	TB	57.265	42.735	58.12	TB	15	8	23
152	09-24-2011	Jon Lester	Freddy Garcia	BOS	NYA	BOS	57.265	42.735	54.46	NYA	1	9	10
153	07-20-2011	Freddy Garcia	David Price	NYA	TB	TB	57.717	42.283	46.139	NYA	4	0	4
154	09-21-2011	James Shields	Phil Hughes	TB	NYA	TB	58.763	41.237	61.34	NYA	2	4	6
155	04-09-11	Ivan Nova	Clay Buchholz	NYA	BOS	BOS	59.1	40.9	47.438	NYA	9	4	13
156	05-17-2011	Ivan Nova	James Shields	NYA	TB	TB	59.514	40.486	49.627	NYA	6	2	8
157	08-07-11	Freddy Garcia	Josh Beckett	NYA	BOS	BOS	60.159	39.841	42.699	BOS	2	3	5
158	08-05-11	Bartolo Colon	Jon Lester	NYA	BOS	BOS	60.396	39.604	41.626	NYA	3	2	5
159	06-03-11	Ivan Nova	Jered Weaver	NYA	LAA	LAA	60.707	39.293	44.465	LAA	2	3	5
160	08-31-2011	Phil Hughes	Josh Beckett	NYA	BOS	BOS	61.165	38.835	42.18	BOS	5	9	14
161	09-27-2011	Bartolo Colon	Jeremy Hellickson	NYA	TB	TB	62.617	37.383	51.261	TB	3	5	8
162	09-01-11	A.J. Burnett	Jon Lester	NYA	BOS	BOS	65.636	34.364	39.814	NYA	4	2	6