2012 Yankees: What To Do With Phil Hughes?

by Travis G on Oct 31, 2011 11:00 AM EDT in New York Yankees Analysis

The SoCal native was an elite prospect just a few years ago. Before the 2007 season, he was rated the best pitching prospect in baseball, third overall behind Alex Gordon and Delmon Young. (Later that offseason, Daisuke Matsuzaka joining the Red Sox organization pushed Hughes to fourth overall.) And for good reason; he was coming off a ridiculous '06 campaign for High-A Tampa and Double-A Trenton: 146 IP, 2.16 ERA, 168 K, 34 BB, .86 WHIP, all at the age of 20. For comparison, neither Manny Banuelos nor Dellin Betances came close to replicating those numbers despite being as old or older than Hughes (and at the same level).

But what happened? Why has Hughes disappointed so far in the big leagues? What does the future hold for him?

To start with, he was probably rushed. At a time when the farm system wasn't nearly as strong as it is now, the Yankees called him up due to injuries at the ML level in late April of 2007, when he was still just 20 years old (and had thrown less than 30 innings at Triple-A). He pitched respectably well in his first game against Toronto (losing to, of all pitchers, A.J. Burnett) and was on his way to a possible no-hitter in Texas when his hamstring gave out.* All the subsequent injuries, in my opinion, stem from this "popped" hammy. He missed three months that season.

Hughes has hit the DL in three of his five ML seasons. It looked like, after a solid - and healthy - 2010 (176 IP, 4.19 ERA), that he would be primed for an even better 2011. Just the opposite, as he failed to reach five innings in three April starts and then was out until July.

Brian Cashman seems to have learned from that 2007 episode though. He didn't promote top prospect Jesus Montero until September despite this being his second season in Triple-A; and he refused to promote either Banuelos or Betances in September, even though the team could've used one or the other.

A good example of how to promote Yankee pitching prospects is probably Ivan Nova. He had a lot of experience. Nova had thrown more than 200 innings at Triple-A before making his ML debut in 2010. And instead of taking a step backward, he took a step forward and will vie for Rookie of the Year.

Unfortunately, we can't go back in time and convince Brian Cashman not to promote Hughes on that cool, rainy night in April of 2007. But we need to ask some questions of Phil: Can he remain healthy and effective as a starter? How long should he be given to prove that? Would he not be better off as a reliever?

Joba Chamberlain is a player many fans think pitches undeniably better as a reliever. (First off, what pitcher wouldn't?) But when comparing his start/relief splits to Hughes', well, there really is no comparison. Joba has been more viable as a starter while Hughes has been miles better in the bullpen.

Career starter/reliever splits:

Joba -

SP: 222 IP, 4.18 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 2 K/BB, .759 OPS Against

RP: 160 IP, 3.03 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 3.7 K/BB, .617 OPS Against

Hughes -

SP: 387 IP, 4.90 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 2.1 K/BB, .751 OPS Against

RP: 56 IP, 1.44 ERA, .91 WHIP, 4.1 K/BB, .470 OPS Against

As you can see, Hughes is much better (relatively speaking) as a reliever than as a starter. If either of the two is to be moved to the bullpen permanently, should it not be Hughes?

The Yanks have a slew of starting pitching prospects (Banuelos, Betances, Hector Noesi, David Phelps and Adam Warren, just to name a few), so I'd give Hughes one more season to prove his worth as a starter. After that, he would fit in nicely at the back end of the bullpen after Mariano (possibly) retires. Of course, a lot will depend on whether CC Sabathia returns.

* Who knows why. Maybe he felt extra pressure due to the no-hitter and/or being a 20-year-old rookie. Whatever it was, he overthrew a curveball (trying to "bury" it), which led to the hamstring injury.

Tweet Comment 35 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

Hughe has been abysmal since the second half of last year. He absolutes dominates minor leagues though. But at the ML level as a starter he just can’t get his fastball by people or get them to bite on his offspeed stuff.

by lololol on Oct 31, 2011 11:18 AM EDT reply actions

we had two great pitching prospects

I’ll never shake the feeling that the Yanks put the wrong guy in the bullpen, and the wrong guy in the rotation. And it will take me a while to get over the fear they’ll make the wrong choices with the prospects that are on the way now.

(None of this is to say that Joba and Hughes are done; I think they’ll both contribute in 2012 and beyond. I just don’t think we’ve gotten the most out of them due to mis-management.)

by long time listener on Oct 31, 2011 11:27 AM EDT reply actions

Three great prospects

We Aldo traded the wrong one.

"I’m never really surprised, but I am thrilled sometimes." Joe G. 2010

by Cbeck3 on Oct 31, 2011 2:45 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

NL West.

by jetanumba2 on Oct 31, 2011 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions

Don’t forget how poorly Ian Kennedy’s career in New York played out.

In 2008, he average 4 1/3 innings per start through his first 8 starts with a 7.41 ERA to boot. He was called up for a game against Anaheim in August, allowed 5 runs in 2 innings, and was basically crucified for stating he didn’t think he pitched that badly.

In 2009, he suffered an aneurysm early in the season and pitched only 23 innings accross the majors and minors.

How high do you think he was in the team’s plans for 2010?

I’m obviously sorry they let Kennedy go too, but based on the information available at the time, I don’t think it was a terrible decision. I’m not sure they even planned on him being the 6th starter heading into 2010, and it’s not like they gave him away, either.

Jesus Montero has to be a full-time catcher, or the Yankees have to trade him. One or the other. Based on the age and contracts of the other players on this team, that's the only place he fits long-term on the Yankees roster.

by 3460kuri on Oct 31, 2011 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions

I take issue just a bit. After the 2008 season he was 23 will all of 12 starts under his belt. Lots, if not practically all, pitchers go through this at the start of their careers. Yes, he had the aneurysm, but I think he is another example of the Yankees giving up on a pitcher too early. On the other hand, maybe they didn’t give up at all. They made a trade that got us Granderson and maybe Kennedy just happened to be the piece chosen. The odd man out, so to speak.

Romine!

by david d on Oct 31, 2011 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions

Exactly my point

They made a trade that got us Granderson and maybe Kennedy just happened to be the piece chosen.

Exactly. The Yankees almost gave Ivan Nova away for absolutely nothing when they left him unprotected in the Rule 5 draft, and then the Padres obliged by selecting him but then choosing not to keep him on the roster and returned him to New York.

Kennedy was traded for something of value, and at the time you could justify parting with an enigmatic young pitcher with an injury history and no real place on that year’s team.

by 3460kuri on Oct 31, 2011 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions

I agree that we should give him another year

If he gets it together next year, all well and good. If he can’t, then by that time we will have at least 2 MLB-ready prospects to put in the rotation after CC, Nova, and AJ. When AJ’s contract runs out after 2013, we should certainly have another prospect to round out the rotation. In 3 years we could go from one of the oldest teams to one of the youngest!

by pastor2b on Oct 31, 2011 12:26 PM EDT reply actions

The trouble with the storyline on Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, and Ivan Nova is our tendency to look back on the decision-making process surrounding their development and retroactively vindicate or villify it based on how their MLB performance is at this given moment. The Yankees look like geniuses with Ivan Nova and idiots with Phil Hughes, right now, but at this point last season, they looked like geniuses with Phil Hughes and Ivan Nova was an underwhelming quadruple-A type pitcher.

Patience is impossible in New York, but I think it’s the best approach to take with young pitchers. Hughes, after all, will only be 26 next season, and while he’s had his ups and downs, there’s really been nothing atypical about his development so far. He’s struggled with injuries, but most of them have thankfully been of the non-shoulder/elbow variety, and with stamina at times as well, but when he’s been healthy, he’s generally been effective. He’s been able to put up a roughly league-average performance for his career, which says something about any pitcher, let alone one this young who has endured the high peaks and low valleys that Hughes has.

by 3460kuri on Oct 31, 2011 12:30 PM EDT reply actions

I agree that hindsight is 20/20

but the decisions can still be analyzed and criticized for what they were. Granted, the Yankees may not have had any choice in bringing Hughes up in 2007 with so little AAA experience (as well as Joba in relief), but decisions made out of necessity aren’t always the wisest or most productive.

Nova had the chance to develop in the farm and grow into his role in the majors because there was no necessity to have him start with little experience.

You are also correct when you say “Patience is impossible in New York,” which is what makes prospect and farm development so frustrating for the fans. I think Joba and Hughes both could have been much better contributors if they hadn’t been rushed, both up to the MLB level and back and forth to the bullpen, and grown into their starting workload.

Lack of patience also leads to trading future stars for aging or just past their prime stars, high payroll, and low roster flexibility. I appreciate that the Yankees want to win every year and put the best team on the field every year, but I, at least, have the patience and intelligence to understand that sometimes, the best options are worth waiting for, even if it means suffering through several seasons of not making the playoffs.

I’ve seen it said on this site many times that a good starter is more valuable than an elite reliever. If that’s true, than the Yankees need to learn patience and develop good-to-elite starters. Relievers are a dime-a-dozen, as Mitre and Gaudin will attest (who somehow keep winding up with both Major League contracts and on the Yankees).

by phonty on Oct 31, 2011 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions

I'd say keep him

Let him start 3 games. If he does well, keep him in the rotation. If not, put him in the bullpen and give him 2-3 innings of relief and let him get his groove back. IF all else fails, demote him to the minors or trade him.

Personally, i can see him better off in a different organization; one that won’t pressure him with these expectations. Remember Ian Kennedy? Need I explain myself? We can always package him and Kei Igawa to the D’Backs in a trade and form the Bust-Yankees rotation in the desert, but I digress.

My concern is CC and if he is going to go somewhere else after he opts out. Also, if we buy out AJ and Rafael we can always go after Buherle and/or Wilson (leaning more towards Buherle after the bad postseason by CJ) and trade for Felix Hernandez. We keep Nova and call up Banuelos (lefty, good potential).

by danmarley21 on Oct 31, 2011 1:26 PM EDT reply actions

may I point out a contradiction?

It seems odd to suggest that Hughes would be better off elsewhere, somewhere that “won’t pressure him with these expectationsm,” then say that Plan B if CC opts out should be to call up Banuelos.

by long time listener on Oct 31, 2011 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions

Felix Hernandez was so last season

by jetanumba2 on Oct 31, 2011 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions

4th or 5th spot starter

Let Hughes be your 4th guy and stop putting so much pressure on him. Let him sit in the back of the rotation and let him grow. Look at Ian Kennedy…..

Joba’s numbers are prob much closer to 4.0 Era, if you take out his 07 season. He had a dominate slider that made the best hitters in the league look retarded. He must be giving something away in his delivery that hitters have caught on too. He isn’t very dominate, unless its a day that he can throw 98.

by spankbank on Oct 31, 2011 1:27 PM EDT reply actions

as Cashman has said himself, Joba Chamberlain has not been the same pitcher since he injured his shoulder in 2008

by jetanumba2 on Oct 31, 2011 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions

Does this ever happen?

Would it be possible to send Joba and/or Hughes down to AAA for as long as necessary to regain form or to assess/confirm if they have SP potential? Does this ever happen? I know they’re a little older and Joba is coming off injury, but could Cashman essentially try to start them over at AAA? I know we’re thin in SP, but we’re good in RP (righties anyway), and perhaps we could see what we’ve got in those two while promoting some of the stretched out AAA guys (Noesi/Phelps/Warren).
Maybe it’s me, but I keep thinking Hughes looks out of shape, and wonder what a terrific regimen might do for him.

by Alex40204 on Oct 31, 2011 1:58 PM EDT reply actions

you can't send them down to confirm or assess anything

every time Hughes goes to AAA he dominates.

Last night, a comedian died in New York. Somebody knows why. Somebody knows

by Rorschach44 on Oct 31, 2011 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions

I think that is really the root of the problem

Hughes was definitely out of shape and i think whatever his workout regime was it was awful. Hughes pitching in April was like the equivalent to trying to pitch in December. You need to actually prepare yourself to through 90+ mphs otherwise you’re just going to kill your arm and tire out your body. He needs to work out and stay fit.

by jetanumba2 on Oct 31, 2011 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions

I honestly still have faith in him

He’s still somewhat young and I believe he can turn it around. Like you, I say give him one more season to try and prove himself a starter.

"WHO WOULD LEAD?! THE CLOWN?!"

by I'mGivingYouARaise on Oct 31, 2011 2:20 PM EDT reply actions

I have faith in him too

But I am not sure the Yanks have the patience to develop pitchers. Almost all young pitchers have bumps in the road. Frequently injuries are a problem.

"I’m never really surprised, but I am thrilled sometimes." Joe G. 2010

by Cbeck3 on Oct 31, 2011 2:49 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Both should still be starters

Putting Joba in the bullpen was stupid and putting Hughes into the bullpen would be stupid as well. Even if he ends up being a mediocre mid rotation/back end starter, thats still more valuable than a middle reliever and you still don’t find them just lying around. He can still help this team, and more as a starting pitcher.

I still have faith that he can regain form next season and have a bounceback season. I have faith in him. He’s still very young and he still has good stuff with multiple plus pitches. There are things he needs to work on obviously and staying strong and healthy is a key for him, but I believe he will be a big factor for this team next year.

Let us all congratulate the Boston Red Sox for becoming the first World Champions in the history of sports to NOT make the postseason! Thats not easy to do!

by nyyrocks29 on Oct 31, 2011 2:57 PM EDT reply actions

Joba in the bullpen was necessary due to his shoulder injury, and now TJS.

If Cashman and the Yanks thought he would be more likely to stay significantly more healthy in the bullpen than in the rotation, than they made the right choice.

Contributing writer for Pinstripe Alley.
Follow me on Twitter @frankiecamp48

by Frank Campagnola on Oct 31, 2011 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions

If they thought that all he could be was a reliever, then they should have been all over that potential deal for Dan Haren that I believe was centered around Joba.

But I don’t think that was it. TJS came out of nowhere- nobody expected it and it happened out of the pen anyways. As for the shoulder injury, he was a starter the entire season in 2009 after the shoulder injury wasn’t he? And he did pretty well before they started messing with his innings. Unless they know something we don’t or I missed/have forgotten something that was reported, he wasn’t injured after 2009 as they were willing to give him a chance to win that fifth starter job in 2010. He didn’t win it, and then they chose to put him in the pen permanently.

I just think that he was moved around so much and never was given a legitimate chance to be a starter. I thought 2010 was going to be his first chance to pitch without any restrictions, but they took that away from him before it began and now he’s never starting another game in his life. Maybe they thought differently and know something we don’t, but I’m disappointed he didn’t get more of a chance to start.

Let us all congratulate the Boston Red Sox for becoming the first World Champions in the history of sports to NOT make the postseason! Thats not easy to do!

by nyyrocks29 on Oct 31, 2011 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions

That deal also included Ivan Nova and Zach McAllister, potentially more. I probably still would have done it.

Also, just because he was a starter after the shoulder injury doesn’t me the injury didn’t effect him. Maybe he was bad in the second half not because of “messing with his innings,” but because the shoulder injury significantly affected his stamina and his arm was just shot.

I’m disappointed, too. Potential aces don’t just show up in your farm system, and when they do, you take advantage of that. But in the end I think they knew something more than we did, and Cahsman confirmed that when he publically stated Joba was not the same pitcher after the injury.

Contributing writer for Pinstripe Alley.
Follow me on Twitter @frankiecamp48

by Frank Campagnola on Oct 31, 2011 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions

The tenor of this post is that both Chamberlain and Hughes have flopped.

This just isn’t so. Hughes was a dominant set- up man in 2009 and an 18 game winner in 2010, no matter how many secondary statistics are rolled out to show that he sucked. Plenty of 18 game winners have two poor months. In 2011 he was hurt. If he has a solid season in 2012, either as a starter or as a set- up reliever, all of this ‘disappointment’ talk will be forgotten. Instead we will be posting about how Robertson- Hughes- Rivera end games in the 6th inning, the way Stanton- Nelson Rivera once did.

As for Joba, his future is simply uncertain, but to write him off now is ridiculous. Many pitchers come back after Tommy John surgery throwing harder than ever. If that’s the case, he’s primed for a great 2013. If not, well, these things happen. But Kuri is right, both Hughes and Chamberlain are still approaching what should be their primes, and the Yankees fans’ expectations of instant unhittability are just silly.

by designatedquitter on Oct 31, 2011 3:32 PM EDT reply actions

Two bad months? Try 4 bad months

After April/May Hughes basically fell off a cliff.

by lololol on Oct 31, 2011 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions

In 2010 Hughe's won twelve games from June through October.

I’m pretty sure you just lost your argument. The only things that matter are wins and rings when u bleed pinstripez.

Approximately eight warnings, a couple dozen censorships, and one ban in the last month and counting.

by Briceratops on Oct 31, 2011 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions

Hughes/Chamberlain

Both Hughes and Chamberlain will bounce back. The Yankees have to have patience. I think both will blossom this year along with Montero. I also see Nunez becoming an outstanding hitter at the big league level. The Yankees have, perhaps, the best young talent ready for stardom in the big leagues. They just need to be patient and let things take their course.

by Noodles5 on Oct 31, 2011 3:54 PM EDT reply actions

I agree abourt Nunez

I think Nunez is going to be a great ML hitter. The ball does jump off his bat. It sounds different. His mistakes in the fields didn’t bother me like some people. He was filling in for a First ballot HOF, who was going after 3K. Plus playing in NYC could of got to the 24 year old. Some reason I see a Edgar Renteria as a hitter but with more speed

by TheYankeeClipper on Nov 1, 2011 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions

I did not really read the comments, so I apologize if someone already said this, but I’ll say it:

I think Phil Hughes will be a very good starting pitcher for the Yankees in the near and distant future. I’m thinking the future rotation will look like this

CC-Banuelos-Free Agent/Betances-Hughes-Nova

There are TONS of more options, too. I am very happy with the future of the rotation, while others are panicking and saying that the Yankees NEED to sign Darvish/Wilson. Darvish would be a great move, but it’s not a need.

Follow me on twitter @nyybrandonc

Writer/Editor for Pinstripe Alley, Blueshirt Banter

"No matter what I talk about, I always get back to baseball."

"Every day is a great day for hockey."

by Brandon C. on Oct 31, 2011 3:55 PM EDT reply actions

You have two guys who have hardly thrown at AAA in your future rotation. TNSTAAPP. Assuming both will work out, and that one will be a top-of-the-rotation guy is highly unlikely, no matter how promising he looks.

To say the rotation is not a need is just not true. There’s an open spot in the rotation right now, and that’s assuming Hughes can keep his shoulder attached to his body in 2012.

CC
Nova
A.J. (?)
Hughes (?)
Open.

Two question marks and an open slot means the rotation is an absolute need.

Contributing writer for Pinstripe Alley.
Follow me on Twitter @frankiecamp48

by Frank Campagnola on Oct 31, 2011 7:30 PM EDT up reply actions

I’m one of the few that is willing to use 2012 as a semi-bridge year for 2013, like 2008 was for 2009. Yeah, I want to win, but not at the cost of the future.

Follow me on twitter @nyybrandonc

Writer/Editor for Pinstripe Alley, Blueshirt Banter

"No matter what I talk about, I always get back to baseball."

"Every day is a great day for hockey."

by Brandon C. on Oct 31, 2011 8:58 PM EDT up reply actions

TNSTAAPP???

there’s no such thing as a pitcing prospect? or… ? could you clarify this, please, for the abbreviation-impaired?

by sing_or_die_1818 on Oct 31, 2011 10:26 PM EDT up reply actions

That is correct.

Jesus Montero fangirl

by WhatwouldJeterdo on Nov 1, 2011 12:27 AM EDT up reply actions

Teach him how to make his fastball not pin-straight so that he can throw it in the strike zone and still miss the fat part of the bat. If there was ever a pitcher in desperate need of a two-seamer, sinker, split finger, improved cutter, etc. it would be Hughes.

When you throw a four-seam fastball that straight, it’s tough to make it through the order three times without giving up a gopher ball or two, as seen by his proclivity to throw meatballs, not be able to put batters away, and inability to get ground ball outs. He still has all of the tools that he needs to be a successful starter (assuming that the Yankees will finally give him a consistent innings load), he just needs to learn how to pitch in the zone and pitch to contact.

This is not an unusual occurrance in young pitchers, and hopefully with some more experience, Hughes can improve his arsenal.

Baseball Statistics and Acronyms Explained

Follow me on the tweetbox - @LordDuggan12

by Lord Duggan on Oct 31, 2011 7:51 PM EDT reply actions