Looking back at regular season projections

I want to look back at the regular season and review the projections I posted on PSA. On Jan 8, before the start of spring training I posted a W-L projection for the Yanks and Boston of 96-66. More details on that below. Then I came back On April first and posted "Picking the Yankees to win the AL East."

I am actually amazed how well I did so I think I’ll point it out. I said the Yanks would score 874 runs and allow 720. They scored 861 and allowed 657. I said the Red Sox would score 875 and allow 724. They scored 875 and allowed 737. I said the Yanks would go 96-66. They went 97-65. I said the Yanks would win the East.

Other things I said.

Montero does not look ready to me. I do, however really like Martin.

Only 3 AL teams allowed more runs than Boston last year and they’ve done little to improve the staff. They’re relying on injury recovery and bounce back years to make them outstanding. Actually seems very optimistic to me.

I think Ivan Nova looked much better this spring

Boston is over rated, they’ll have to beat Tampa for the WC. I am actually as concerned about Tampa as Boston.

This is the first season when I thought of using projected ERA and projected runs scored to estimate a team’s record before the season. I was quite pleased with how it worked. I do not claim to have had any idea that the RS would choke to a historic meltdown, but I believed they were being vastly over rated. I wasn’t at all worried about them moving in on the ’27 or ’61 Yanks as the best team ever.

I’ll try the same method again next year.