David Robertson, K/9, and the Next Yankees Closer
David Robertson, if you didn't pay attention, had a remarkable season. While pitching to a 1.08 ERA (410 ERA+), he racked up exactly 100 strikeouts in 66.2 innings pitched. That equates to 13.5 K/9. Not only is that the highest in Yankee history (minimum of 50 IP), but it's the best in American League history. That's right. In 111 years (spanning more than 10,000 individual seasons), no pitcher has struck out batters at a better rate.*
The last Yankee reliever to strikeout more than 100 batters in a season was none other than Mariano Rivera, who did so in his epic 1996 campaign. He became the closer the following season and the rest is history. Of course, he walked one fewer batter than D-Rob despite tossing 41 more innings. D-Rob's been able to get away with a relatively high walk rate because of his ridiculous K-rate... imagine if he could cut down on the walks just a little. Wow.
Anyway, if 2012 is Rivera's last year, would you want D-Rob to replace him? Vote.
* What's amazing is that a starter is second on the list: Pedro Martinez' 1999 season, in which he K'ed 313 batters in 213.1 IP (13.2 K/9).
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I voted for Hughes/ Joba
Manager bias and usage is why:
Most managers use their closer in “save” situations. This usually means 9th inning with a 1-3 run lead.
Almost anybody can do this job at an acceptable pace (see Valverde, Jose, and Soriano, Rafael).
But the highest leverage moment in the game often falls to a set up manager that the manager trusts. 7th inning, 2 on, up by one; 6th inning down one with a man on first; etc. I want my most electric pitcher available at that moment. Stick D-rob with the “closer” title, and the Yankees will immediately lose value.
Also, D-rob’s BB/9 is not good. There are days when he just doesn’t have it. Managers almost never go get their closer; they show their “faith” by losing the game instead. D-rob seems to me like the kind of pitcher you have to be prepared to “go get” every once in a while.
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If Soriano regains form, I think it’s all moot. I’m fine with either guy closing out ballgames. D-Rob was great in 2011 but I don’t think his 2.3% HR/FB rate is sustainable.
by Scooby Snacks on Oct 26, 2011 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions
Signing Huston Street is another option
He’s the only attractive ‘13 free agent closer with a proven track record and won’t turn 30 y/o until August that year. I’m not in favor of this since we saw how the Soriano signing turned out.
D-Rob or Joba is my guess
both of them would be good enough. Soriano won’t be here long enough to assume the role.
Could you imagine
having an even better (less BB’s) D-Rob pitching the 8th followed by a 2007 version of Joba? Oh. My. God…
Romine!
I can’t comprehend that type of dominance.
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by Frank Campagnola on Oct 26, 2011 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Under the assumption that Mo retires, the Yankees will be paying Soriano $14M in 2013. Where is he going to go?
by Scooby Snacks on Oct 26, 2011 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions
That really depends on the quality of his 2012 campaign. If Robertson is pitching better, I wouldn’t necessarily plug Soriano into the closer role simply because he’s making a substantial amount of money.
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by Chris McKeown on Oct 26, 2011 4:25 PM EDT via iPhone app up reply actions
For contractual reasoning, I think Soriano will close
It will also depress D-Rob’s and Joba’s future arbitration salaries.
the hell is that?
for contractual reasons, he should pitch good. Whether he makes $13mill or $130,000 doesn’t matter, its who’s better. The Yankees are dumb and stubborn, but it didn’t stop them from leaving Robertson in the “8th inning” role, like arbitrary innings roles matter anyway.
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by Rorschach44 on Oct 26, 2011 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions
In the arbitration panel's eyes
Closer >>> Setup man > Middle reliever
by Scooby Snacks on Oct 26, 2011 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions
good for arbitration
it has nothing to do with the game being played.
Last night, a comedian died in New York. Somebody knows why. Somebody knows
Are you simply ignoring the fact that baseball is a business and that teams assign roles based on salary considerations?
by Scooby Snacks on Oct 26, 2011 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions
are you ignoring the fact that Soriano was the "7th inning man" and Robertson the "8th inning man"
or did you not watch this season?
Last night, a comedian died in New York. Somebody knows why. Somebody knows
If D-Rob isn't the next closer, I will personally be annoyed
Sure, he walks a lot of batters, but his ERA tells the tale: he does not allow those runners to score. He strands runners like no other (partly because he walks runners like no other…), and he can get out of jams like they are nothing. Less walks would help reduce health insurance premiums across the country, but I don’t see that being a deal-breaker for him succeeding Mo. He’s got the stuff, he’s got the experience, he’s even got Mo’s blessing!
actually
his ERA only reflects the runners he put on base and allowed to score.
His Inherited Runner Scored percentage is 23%, which is a career low for him. I don’t know how that compares to the rest of the league, though.
Lookin at Fangraphs '%LOB' statistic, which I assume is similar to inherited runners, but including his own:
The league leader was Koji Uehara at 94.9%. Robertson was second, at 89.8%. Nobody else was particularly close to either one of them. Rivera was at 83.3%. Fangraphs ranked relievers by WAR, with Papelbon #1 at 3.0, Robertson #2 at 2.8 and Mariano #3 at 2.4.
by designatedquitter on Oct 26, 2011 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Assuming that he comes into the game with a clean plate, the ERA reflects the number of runners he put on base who score
When he comes in with runners on, the LOB percent and inherited runners statistics show how many runners score while he’s in the game.
Pedro Martinez's 1999 season still blows my mind
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by Hasan Paliwala on Oct 26, 2011 12:34 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
but he played for the Pissants
so most of the roiders were on his team
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by Rorschach44 on Oct 27, 2011 9:07 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
My guess is if Rivera retires Soriano closes in ’13, then Joba gets the job…a…if his arm holds up. I really think it should go to Robertson, but will go to whoever throws the hardest.
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by Cory Braiterman on Oct 26, 2011 12:53 PM EDT reply actions
I could see it.
Especially if that cutter he was throwing late in the year was real.
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Soriano = No Guts!!!
DRob is the man!! The guy will only get better. Soriano and Joba to build the bridge.
Not sure what the big deal is. There is no replacement for Mo
and it is doubtful that he’ll retire after next season anyway. May as well just play it out and see what’s available once he finally decides to hang it up.
Amen. Mo's greatness comes form consistentcy and ability to do it year in and year out
Every year there usually is one relief pitcher that has some amazing numbers, but usually those relief pitchers don’t last for more than a few years before losing it. This is what makes Mo most amazing since he is able to do it til his 40’s without missing a beat
Robertson is the best pitcher we have after Mo
When Mo hangs it up how do we not go with a guy who just had possibly the greatest season as a setup guy ever.
by Section 336 on Oct 26, 2011 3:46 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Have Joba and Rob battle it out next season.
I think they should be our 8-9 tandem for years to come. (7-8 while Rivera is around).
Soriano isn't going anywhere.
Approximately eight warnings, a couple dozen censorships, and one ban in the last month and counting.
I love D-Rob. He’s ridiculous. And yes, he should definitely be our closer whenever Mo leaves. My only issue with using our best reliever as a closer is that we will only see him in the 9th inning of save situations. Girardi manages the bullpen really well, for the most part, but I dislike his stubbornness when D-Rob or Mo, for example, throw like, 12 pitches in an inning and he won’t send them out for another (if needed, in Mo’s case). Don’t get me wrong, I don’t want him to Torre any of our best relievers, but I do think there’s a happy medium between the 2 that would benefit everyone. D-Rob can pitch in any situation, but he’s called Houdini for a reason. I’d hate to have 2 on or the bases loaded with less than 2 outs in the 7th or 8th and not be able to have D-Rob come in because it’s not the 9th. That whole 7th, 8th, 9th Inning Guy crap has got to go, it limits us from putting our best guys in when they’re needed.
I’m hoping Joba comes back healthy and dominant, which would be amazing and pretty much render my complaint pointless, at least for now. If Hughes can’t make it as a starter next season for whatever reason, then he would be another great addition to the BP. Definitely keep Wade and Logan, too, I guess, and I’ll be happy.
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by Ella Grace on Oct 27, 2011 1:45 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
If the Yankees sign two starters in the offseason, your set- up guy of the future may be Phil Hughes.
by designatedquitter on Oct 27, 2011 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm sure people were concerned they wouldn't see Mo often enough when he became the Closer
Look what happened: we’ve struggled with finding dominant relievers to complement him, but we’ve always had one or two we trusted; Joba, Phil, and D-Rob would all fit into that category. Odds are that Wade will be a good reliever, Joba will be back, and Brackman may find a place in the pen.
D-Rob becoming closer will not have all that much of a negative impact on the rest of the bullpen.

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