The Myth of Next Year's Pitching Free Agent Class

by jscape2000 on Oct 25, 2011 1:01 PM EDT in New York Yankees Analysis

I've seen this show and it's happening again, but I don't know how to stop it.

When the Twins dangled Johan Santana in 2007, the Yankees declined to spend prospects and money on the lefty. They figured they'd cull from the rich free agent class of 2008. They missed the playoffs in 2008, and were by then so desperate for pitching that they signed AJ Burnett for 5 years and gave CC Sabathia an opt out clause.

There was talk that 2010 would feature "the greatest free agent pitching class ever," Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay, Brandon Webb and Josh Beckett would be available. A rich team could build a superstar rotation from nothing. That's sort of what happened when the Phillies traded Lee for Halladay and signed Halladay to an extention, then re-signed Lee. Beckett never tested free agency, staying in Boston on his own extension. Webb's arm never bounced back from a string of injuries.

So before we get too excited about waiting for the 2013 free agent class (free agents after the 2012 season), let's remember that there's almost no way that Matt Cain, Jon Danks, Zach Greinke, Cole Hamels, Dan Haren, and Shaun Marcum will hit free agency. If history is a guide, half of them will sign extensions, 1 in 3 will lose effectiveness to age and injury, and the couple pitchers who hit the open market will have so much leverage that they will win too many years and too many perks.

The Yankees need to fix their pitching rotation, either through the pitchers currently available by sale or trade or through their own farm. We can't wait for a solution to come to us.

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This may be true, but I will never understand anyone saying that the Yankees should just overpay for free agents available this season because of that. No. C.J. Wilson.

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by Brandon C. on Oct 25, 2011 1:21 PM EDT reply actions

The only free agent I want to see the team overpay for is CC (and then only because that may be the only way they keep him)

Beyond that, we still have AJ, Nova, and Hughes. We may be able to sign Garcia for another year as a stopgap. We might be able to turn Noesi into a starter. We can certainly expect 1-2 of the hot young guns in SWB to break into the majors at some point between next year and 2013 Spring Training. By the time CC’s contract starts to hurt us, we might even have 2-3 of those young guns tearing it up in the Majors, along with Nova and Hughes.

by pastor2b on Oct 25, 2011 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions

right

we need to get CC by any means. He currently has the 2nd biggest contract in the MLB, but he’s too valuable an asset to let go, even if it means giving rotation spots to guys like Man-Ban or Noesi

by ekwfan6 on Oct 25, 2011 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions

Hey, in a few years, all those guys we're hearing about in the System will be ready, and we will have a killer rotation

If we’re lucky and enough of them turn into quality big-leaguers, the rest of the rotation combined will be making less than CC!

by pastor2b on Oct 25, 2011 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions

This post is absolutely correct as far as it goes.

But just because these arms [and attached bodies] won’t be free agents at the end of 2012 doesn’t mean they won’t be available. Some of them will be trade bait in July. Which ones depends on the standings and the finances of the hand attached to the body attached to the bank account writing that player’s paycheck.

Even on a team as loaded as the Phillies, Hamels could be available if he’s not having the season the Phils expect, or the Phillies as a team fall on their faces, or they have a rookie who looks like an 18 game winner at 1/20 of the cost.

My point isn’t that these guys will be available for trade, it’s that they might be if things break right. Similarly, other pitchers who won’t be free agents at the end of 2012 could also be trade bait for the same reasons, or because they will be free agents the next season and their present team is thinking proactively.

by designatedquitter on Oct 25, 2011 1:53 PM EDT reply actions

I think Hamels is getting an extension. And i think greinke or Marcum might get one too seeing as the brewers gave up the farm for those two. Even if Greinke hits the market we’ll avoid him like the plague. Haren has an option for 2013 so he might be actually be on the market. That really thins the market down to Cain or Danks. Cain is way too fly ball heavy for my tastes, while Danks might be worth a look as a 2/3.

by lololol on Oct 25, 2011 2:22 PM EDT reply actions

I agree with you about the Yanks staying away from Greinke (and I think that’s a shame). On the other hand, the Brewers may decide that if Prince Fielder bolts that their window is closing, and they’d rather have a slew of high draft picks. I believe the CBA is up for re-negotiation soon, so what FA compensation looks like may strongly influence their decision.

"Have faith in the Yankees my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."
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by jscape2000 on Oct 25, 2011 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions

Yu Darvish

That is all.

Let us all congratulate the Boston Red Sox for becoming the first World Champions in the history of sports to NOT make the postseason! Thats not easy to do!

by nyyrocks29 on Oct 25, 2011 2:45 PM EDT reply actions

yeah, idk how many guys we really need...

I have a hunch they’ll get Darvish… and then you have

CC, Darvish, Nova, Hughes, Burnett

with Warren, Phelps, Noesi, Betances and Banuelos trying to takeover spots in the next few years, basically when Burnett’s contract is up, if Hughes is ineffective or if Darvish doesn’t pan out.

by Matt dubs on Oct 25, 2011 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions

Honestly, I'd even be fine with getting a stopgap like another year of Garcia

Then in 2013 we have one of those ’spects debuting as the 5th starter, and in 2014 we have another one replacing Burnett. At that point we have CC, Nova, Hughes, Banuelos, Phelps (for example). Of those, only CC would be over 30 and overpaid.

by pastor2b on Oct 25, 2011 5:23 PM EDT up reply actions

Garcia will most likely have Type B status and earn between $6-7M next year if he accepts arb. The Yankees should definitely offer it to him. If he takes it… great! The Yankees could keep him or make him trade bait. If he doesn’t, they still gain a draft pick.

by Scooby Snacks on Oct 25, 2011 8:20 PM EDT up reply actions

I'd love to see Freddy back.

He keeps the team in games and knows how to PITCH, not just throw. He had an occasional bad game, but every pitcher does. A 3.62 ERA in the AL East is pretty damn good.

by nj23nut on Oct 25, 2011 9:50 PM EDT up reply actions

What about Bartolo Colon?

is he done, or is he able to pitch effectively deeper into the season after using 2011 to rebuild his stamina? This season he clearly ran out of gas. On the other hand, he hadn’t pitched any significant innings in four years. If we think he might be able to build upon 2011 and give us 40 more good innings next year (5 or 6 starts) then he’s worth bringing back as well.

by designatedquitter on Oct 26, 2011 9:58 AM EDT up reply actions

I'm quite surprised how well the pitching staff did this year

On paper, the rotation was a mess after CC. Thankfully Nova shined, Freddy and Bartolo exceeded expectations and AJ, well he wasn’t AS bad as he was in 2010. I think a lot of credit should be given to Larry Rothschild. He did a freakin’ awesome job with not only the guys in the rotation, but the bullpen was a formidable weapon, too. I would have never thought that the starting pitching would have been a strength and the lineup’s failure to hit in the clutch it’s downfall.

by nj23nut on Oct 25, 2011 9:55 PM EDT reply actions