New York Yankee News: Mid-Morning Thoughts

by jscape2000 on Oct 20, 2011 10:01 AM EDT in New York Yankees News

No more Marte: The Yankees have declined his 2012 option. One dead weight lefty gone, Pedro Feliciano to go.

From the same article: Former Mets GM Omar Minaya has interviewed from the Angels position; that would be a double win for the Yankees because they could keep Damon Oppenheimer and Billy Eppler, while Minaya could create a lost decade for another big market rival.

Joel Sherman see all kinds of ways the Yankees could lose CC Sabathia to his impending free agency, mainly by playing hardball with the big lefty a la the Jeter negotiation, then watching a team like the Angels (who play near Sabathia's home) swoop in with a big offer.

Here's the difference, as I see. The Yankees determined, rightly, that Derek Jeter needed the Yankees more than the Yankees needed their 35 year old short stop. There is no one available in baseball that the Yankees need more than CC Sabathia. CC wants to have the biggest per year average of any pitcher in history (top Cliff Lee's $24M/Y)? He's got it. He wants a season where he's paid more than any player in history (Roger Clemens $28M)? He's got it.

Dave Cameron tries to compare the '11 Rangers with the '98 Yankees.

I think it's fair to say he's stretching to make the two teams appear to be equals. I think he's right to say that the main difference between the two teams is that the '98 Yankees hit phenomenally well (luckily) in those close and late situations that make the difference between 114 wins and 97 wins. But I think this is wrong -

...it’s not overly hard to believe that they were similarly effective defensively, though an eyeball test may suggest that the Rangers roster (with Adrian Beltre and Elvis Andrus especially) looks better on paper than the Yankees roster that featured Derek Jeter at shortstop and Bernie Williams in center field.

What Dave is forgetting is that Jeter was a much better fielder early in his career, and with Brosius covering most of the left side, Jeter was able to shade up the middle and hide some of his deficiencies. Bernie Williams in 1998 was the third or fourth best center fielder in the game- before his legs slowed down and his shoulder gave out, he covered plenty of ground to make up for a (then) average arm.

Oh yeah, the Cardinals beat the Rangers in Game 1 of the World Series. Just sayin'.

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As far as CC goes, Sherman seems to have all the info but not of the know-how to put it together

FACT: The Yankees played hardball with Jeter last year.
FACT: Jeter was not going to get a better deal than the one from the Yankees.
FACT: Jeter signed the contract from the Yankees.
Ergo, Last year, it made sense for the Yankees to play hardball with Jeter.

Flip it to this year:
FACT: Assuming he opts out, CC will be the best starting pitcher on the free agency market.
FACT: If the Yankees play hardball, there are plenty of teams that would be willing to give him a few more years to get that ace pitcher they need.
FACT: The Yankees need CC to be competitive for at least the next year or two until some of their ’spects are ready.
ASSUMPTION: The Yankees are not going to play hardball with CC. They need him too much for that.

by pastor2b on Oct 20, 2011 10:28 AM EDT reply actions

CJ/Yu

The Yankees could probably get both Wilson and Darvish for around $28 million a year. The problem is that Darvish might not be posted and might not be good in the MLB. Its worth a thought if CC’s demands are over the top.

The sole remaining NYC Bills Fan

by MikeD28x on Oct 20, 2011 10:46 AM EDT up reply actions

Not to hijack your thread...

But Mike, you are not the sole remaining NYC Bills fan. :) I also still route for the only true NY team!!

"Ballgame over! Yankees win! Theeee Yankees win!"

by AnnaSheehan on Oct 20, 2011 11:07 AM EDT up reply actions

Only true NY football team, that is. ;)

"Ballgame over! Yankees win! Theeee Yankees win!"

by AnnaSheehan on Oct 20, 2011 11:08 AM EDT up reply actions

take the "e" off of "route"

That’s what the Bills have been for the last decade or two!

by pastor2b on Oct 20, 2011 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions

Quite true

but they are still NY’s only team. :)

"Ballgame over! Yankees win! Theeee Yankees win!"

by AnnaSheehan on Oct 20, 2011 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions

So if Ralph Wilson dies

New York wont have any football team

"Son, Nobody is half as good as Mickey Mantle"

by ntrokel on Oct 20, 2011 5:50 PM EDT up reply actions

4 yrs / $92 million

Take it or leave it.

"Unpleasant Internet Dude"

by david d on Oct 20, 2011 10:51 AM EDT reply actions

4 years/$92 million is what’s left on the contract he’ll be opting out of.

Jesus Montero has to be a full-time catcher, or the Yankees have to trade him. One or the other. Based on the age and contracts of the other players on this team, that's the only place he fits long-term on the Yankees roster.

by 3460kuri on Oct 20, 2011 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions

Exactly

"Unpleasant Internet Dude"

by david d on Oct 20, 2011 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

So you don't want Sabathia back, in other words.

by 3460kuri on Oct 20, 2011 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions

don’t pay any attention to the man behind the curtain

by jetanumba2 on Oct 20, 2011 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions

If he opts out

and wants more than 4/92? No, I would not re-sign him. He’s too old for more than a 4 year contract and that’s already a boatload of dough.

"Unpleasant Internet Dude"

by david d on Oct 21, 2011 3:36 AM EDT up reply actions

I don't see why you'd blame CC for trying to get more years while he still can

You can argue that he should accept the contract he signed. Well, that’s fine, except that the contract he signed explicitly gave him the option to do exactly this – opt out and become a free agent.

It’s easy for us all to sit back and say he’s being greedy, and who knows? Maybe he is. But he’s playing the game by the rules, unlike certain football players who sign a contract, and then sit out and refuse to go to training camp in the hopes of forcing a new contract. If CC opts out, you can blame him, or you can blame the Yankees for giving him the original contract with the opt out clause. Or you can blame his agent, who is in his ear telling him that he can get more years and money from the Yankees, because they can’t afford to let him go elsewhere.

by waw on Oct 20, 2011 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions

Well if thats the case

Then you don’t want CC back, because he’s not coming back at that price. In which case you don’t want Darvish, CC OR Wilson?

Thats not an offseason strategy that will put a championship contending team together. I want this team to win a World Series, and a rotation where you take out CC and don’t add anyone significant will produce a team that will be lucky to get into third place in the division. Of course, with Selig’s new system possibly in place…

Let us all congratulate the Boston Red Sox for becoming the first World Champions in the history of sports to NOT make the postseason! Thats not easy to do!

by nyyrocks29 on Oct 20, 2011 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions

Correct

I want none of the above. Well, I want CC on the Yankees, just not for longer than 4 years and for 92 mil.

"Unpleasant Internet Dude"

by david d on Oct 21, 2011 3:38 AM EDT up reply actions

That’s dumb.

by lololol on Oct 20, 2011 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs

No

Signing a pitcher who is 31 for anything more than 4 years and paying him more than 23 million bucks is dumb.

"Unpleasant Internet Dude"

by david d on Oct 21, 2011 3:40 AM EDT up reply actions

Even when your team is old

Built to win now, rather than for the next 5 years, and you basically have no 100% reliable pitchers behind CC?

"Son, Nobody is half as good as Mickey Mantle"

by ntrokel on Oct 21, 2011 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions

I don’t even want to contemplate the horror of next year’s rotation without CC. Whatever he wants, give it to him. This is not the time for the Yankees, of all friggin teams, to be thrifty.

"Ballgame over! Yankees win! Theeee Yankees win!"

by AnnaSheehan on Oct 20, 2011 11:02 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs

Marte

Am i the only seeing the Yankees signing him again? With his injuries, they could get him for a minimal amount of money and he’s said to be ready by spring. That could be (one of) their second lefty signings. Low-risk, (semi-) High- reward.

by jjdel8895 on Oct 20, 2011 11:45 AM EDT reply actions

define "low risk" with a guy who's coming off the 730-day Disabled List

by pastor2b on Oct 20, 2011 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs

lol

"Unpleasant Internet Dude"

by david d on Oct 20, 2011 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions

CC

Hey, they Yankees set the precedent with A-rod – go ahead and opt out of your contract and if you can’t find anyone to equal what you left behind, don’t worry – we will increase the number of years and the dollars. Can’t blame CC if the Yankees insist on playing the fool.

by Yankee in Singapore on Oct 20, 2011 12:22 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs

That article

is Evidence A as to why I hate these dopey “metrics”. Anyone who thinks this Rangers team is in the same vicinity as the ’98 Yankees should seek help immediately from a medical professional.

by fortheglory94 on Oct 20, 2011 12:58 PM EDT reply actions

And here I was hoping Minaya went to the Red Sox

Ah well, at least I’m still not wearing any pants.

"WHO WOULD LEAD?! THE CLOWN?!"

by I'mGivingYouARaise on Oct 20, 2011 1:08 PM EDT reply actions

We didn't play harball with Jeter.

Jeter got exactly what he wanted. If the Yankees truly played harball with Jeter he wouldn’t have got such a huge contract that he did.

by Briceratops on Oct 20, 2011 1:37 PM EDT reply actions

we did play hardball

Cashman told him to test the open market. Then we gave him what he wanted anyway.

by jetanumba2 on Oct 20, 2011 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah. The borthers and Levine got that deal done.

IIRC, Cashman only wanted to do a one year deal. He would’ve only overpaid in dollars.

by E-ROC on Oct 20, 2011 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions

Jeter was always getting what he wanted

The only question was how much.

"WHO WOULD LEAD?! THE CLOWN?!"

by I'mGivingYouARaise on Oct 20, 2011 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions

Never was a fan of Cameron anyway

Thank you for everything Jorgie!

by Livestrong77nyy on Oct 20, 2011 1:49 PM EDT reply actions

“Large market teams suck. Something condescending.” -Dave Cameron

by Briceratops on Oct 20, 2011 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions

If St. Louis wins this series, all of these bandwagon hoppers will be switching wagons anyway

by waw on Oct 20, 2011 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions

This one?

Yes, that is Spike Lee.

by TheRealSlimShady on Oct 20, 2011 5:28 PM EDT up reply actions

Cameron's article also shows a quirk with WAR

The ‘98 Yankees’ WAR is only about one win higher than the ‘11 Rangers’. Were replacement players that much better in 1998?

I’m only kidding, of course, but only up to a point. If WAR really measures what it claims to, you’d expect a team’s win total minus its WAR to be about the same over all teams. There will be fluctuations, but seventeen games seems gigantic even accounting for different seasons.

Usqueadbaugham! Anam muck an dhoul ! Did ye drink me doornail?

by Q-TDSK on Oct 20, 2011 1:55 PM EDT via mobile reply actions

He’s wrong and right to a certain extent. He’s wrong in that he over-glorifies this year’s Rangers simply on some of the stats he showed, since this year’s yankees have been just on par with the Rangers in every category and produced a similar WAR to this year’s Rangers. He easily could replace 2011 Rangers with 2011 Yankees, had we made the world series. By that context he is a fucking moron. (Mariners #6org in 2010 moronic). His comparison is stupid as hell but what he he shows with the RISP and stuff has some value.

Like what jscape mentions can lead to a large difference in win-loss over a season despite posting similar numbers. And by that measure we can say the 2011 Ranger (and yankees) underperformed in a sense. For example this is shown in their pythag record which has the the 2011 yankees pegged at 103 expected wins, the rangers at 100 expected wins. Also you have to remember, the 1998 fangraphs WAR doesn’t calculate baserunning as a commenter mentioned, while the 2011 rangers get a boost from that.

by lololol on Oct 20, 2011 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions

The ‘98 Yankees’ WAR is only about one win higher than the ‘11 Rangers’. Were replacement players that much better in 1998?

No, I don’t think so. I think the issue is that WAR is based entirely on context-neutral calculations, in other words, since players don’t really have control over when they bat or specifically when they will hit a home run, it values a 3rd inning solo shot the same way it values a 12th inning walk-off homer.

Of course, within the course of a game and a season, context does make a difference in games. I don’t believe the player hitting the 12th inning walk-off has some superior character trait, but that homer has a greater impact on a game than the 3rd inning solo shot does.

WPA (win probability added) measures this type of stuff.

The ‘98 Yankees had a WPA of 33.00, while the ’11 Rangers only came in at 15.00, for a difference of 18 which conveniently matches the difference between New York’s 114 wins and Texas’ 96.

So, as Cameron said, the main difference between the two teams is that the Yankees benefitted from an exceptional amount of timely hitting and pitching – getting key outs or key hits in the right spots.

by 3460kuri on Oct 20, 2011 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions

You'd definitely expect WPA to line up better with actual win totals

If they didn’t, you’d have to start questioning the probabilities associated with game states.

It was mainly the large difference between actual win total and WAR win total (roughly 42+team WAR) that I found striking. In fact, the Yankees of 1998 were not the most remarkable in that regard in that season. They won 10 more games than you’d expect from that formula, while their WS opponent Padres won 15 more. These are both something of an outlier: the standard deviation is around 7 for that season.

Flipping forward to 2011, the Rangers won nearly 7 games less than they should have if they cashed in every “win” from their play. The Yankees didn’t fare much better with 5. (The standard deviation here was 5.4.) I can’t resist pointing out that the team who did the worst by this measure was Boston, losing almost 12 games more than their play indicated.

Usqueadbaugham! Anam muck an dhoul ! Did ye drink me doornail?

by Q-TDSK on Oct 20, 2011 8:02 PM EDT up reply actions

They need CC

And they should do whatever it takes to bring him back. He’s going to be a Yankee next season- if he’s not, then something seriously went wrong and this team is in serious trouble for 2012. He absolutely needs to be their number one priority after getting Cashman resigned.

Sign Yu Darvish too please.

Let us all congratulate the Boston Red Sox for becoming the first World Champions in the history of sports to NOT make the postseason! Thats not easy to do!

by nyyrocks29 on Oct 20, 2011 2:42 PM EDT reply actions

I’d give CC a 6 year deal that front loaded. Basically up his per annual for the next 4 years, then have a more reasonable payment for the last two.

by lololol on Oct 20, 2011 2:44 PM EDT reply actions

That would be similar to A-Rod's deal, which was also front-loaded

He’s barely getting over 20 million in the last few years of his deal. Still a ridiculous amount to be giving to someone over 40 but at least it’s not like the 30+ million he received this season.

If he wants a 6 year deal, I wish they could do it with a team option or something of that sort, so if he’s showing signs of decline or a lot of injuries they can get rid of him a year earlier. But if he produces like he has then they can keep him. I’m not sure CC would like that too much though.

Let us all congratulate the Boston Red Sox for becoming the first World Champions in the history of sports to NOT make the postseason! Thats not easy to do!

by nyyrocks29 on Oct 20, 2011 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions

YESNetwork YES Network
Report: The Yankees have scouted Japanese pitching sensation Yu Darvish bit.ly/qcLsP5

Thought some might be interested

"WHO WOULD LEAD?! THE CLOWN?!"

by I'mGivingYouARaise on Oct 20, 2011 4:30 PM EDT reply actions

I'm very interested

Though I already knew they’d do that. I’d be far more interested if it was something like,

Report: The Yankees have reached a preliminary agreement with Japanese right hander Yu Darvish pending a physical.

Within the next two months, thats what I want to see! And then I’ll be happy, not only because they’re adding a great pitcher but also increasing the racial diversity in the clubhouse!

Let us all congratulate the Boston Red Sox for becoming the first World Champions in the history of sports to NOT make the postseason! Thats not easy to do!

by nyyrocks29 on Oct 20, 2011 5:27 PM EDT up reply actions

The posting process will be very interesting to watch

Will the $51 million for Dice-K be blown away, or will his and Igawa’s struggles lower the bids? Will we see close bids, or will one team (ahem) blow away the competition? If the Yankees bid were to exceed the next closest by the same $11 million that the Red Sox overbid for Dice-K, the backlash will be ugly.

Yup, it will be interesting to watch.

by waw on Oct 20, 2011 6:44 PM EDT up reply actions

One of the few things I actually liked about that CC article was the guy's suggestion for a contract

Give him something like 5 years/120 million, but then throw a couple options on the end:
If he pitches 200 innings in the third year of the contract, then an optional 6th year worth 27 million
If he pitches 200 innings in the fourth year, then an optional 7th year worth 26 million
And so on.

That way we won’t be stuck with a bad contract if he falls apart toward the end of the deal and he has incentive to keep pitching a lot and eating up innings and he can increase the per year amount by activating those options

by pastor2b on Oct 20, 2011 4:32 PM EDT reply actions