The NYY by the Numbers (3): Finding Two Starters

In my last post, I identified eight roster spots that still need to be filled going into 2012.  Some of these spots (SP, IF and backup C defense) were areas of team weakness in 2011.  Others (a RH OF bat, a backup CIF who can hit) are players who we can reasonably expect to get playing time in 2012.  Since that time, Cashman has talked about his need to add another lefty reliever (sigh), which I’m not going to look at here.

In each case, the FO has three options, some of which are more feasible in certain situations than others: promote internally, sign a FA, or trade (or sign and trade) with another team.  All eight spots will share a salary pool of around $45 million.

In this post, I will cover 10 pitchers who could fill the two holes in the 2012 NYY rotation; some of these will be FA, some internal, and some trade candidates.

10 to watch after the jump:

Free Agents:
1. CC Sabathia (31 in 2012, 3 year fWAR Avg. 6.2, 2011 salary $23 million): The only sure #1 on the FA market, and no other #1 is close enough to FA to be traded.  The NYY sign Sabathia or they don’t have an ace.  The good news: everything we've heard says he wants to come back.  So how much would it take? Cliff Lee is going to make $25 million in 2013, so CC could get 5/130, with a $28-30 million vesting option in year 6.
2. CJ Wilson (31, 2 year Avg. 5.2, $7 million): str8edgeracer’s average stats (215 IP , 188 K & 1.21 WHIP) and peripherals (7.9 K/9, 3.4 FIP) since 2010 make him a borderline ace.  A big question mark is whether he can continue at his 2010-11 pace, given that he threw more IP than his prior 5 years in relief combined.  MLBTR estimates a contract of 5-6 years at $18-20 million.
3. Yu Darvish (25, NPB ERA 2.12, $6 million): The big lottery ticket; if posted, scouts estimate that Darvish, 6’5” and a fierce competitor, has #1 potential.  His 2011 NPB line (1.46 ERA, .843 WHIP, 10.5 K/9, 1.4 BB/9, .75 HR/9) compares favorably to Hellickson’s 2010 AAA season against weaker competition (2.45 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 9.4 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, .38 HR/9), except the HR rate, which could be a worry.  Darvish could command a $75 million posting fee, and another $75 million over 5 years.
4. Edwin Jackson (28, 3-year Avg. 3.7, $8.4): Jackson, who might be on his 7th team in 2012, reminds me of AJ Burnett...great stuff that took some time to harness.  Though 4 years younger entering FA, Jackson’s last 3 years (7.1 K/9, 3 BB/9, 108 ERA+, 1.36 WHIP) look a lot like Burnett in TOR (9 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 112 ERA+, 1.28 WHIP, Avg WAR 3.7).  They even have matching bad no hitters.  Don’t be surprised if Jackson, a Boras client, demands Burnett money (5-6 years, $16-18 million).
5. Freddy Garcia (35, 3-year Avg. 1.7, $4 w. incentives): Of Colon and Garcia, Freddy is the safer bet, due to Colon’s IP jump in 2011 (Garcia threw less this year, while Colon threw 100 more IP than 2009-10 combined).  The Yankees could offer him arbitration, and if he declines they might be in line for Type B compensation.  If all of #2-4 fall through/get too expensive, Garcia could be in the mix for 1 year, $5-6 million.  His peripherals suggest a 4-4.2 ERA, but the limited financial exposure would make the NYY more comfortable about moving him to the pen if a viable in-house option emerges.  The NYY could probably squeeze 175 IP and 2-2.5 fWAR out of Garcia in 2012, which is #3, #4 starter value.

Internal:
There are several internal options at AAA who could come up for a spot start or work their way into the rotation, or serve as the long man.
6. Hector Noesi (25, 2010 MiLB 3.2 ERA, 1.1 WHIP, 8.6 K/9, 1.6 BB/9): Noesi was wasted this season on the ML roster, and might benefit from stretching out in AAA if he isn’t guaranteed a spot in the rotation.  Of the three internal options, he is the most polished.
7. David Phelps (25, 2011 MiLB 2.99 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 7.5 K/9, 2.1 BB/9).
8. Adam Warren (24, 2011 MiLB 3.6 ERA, 1.3 WHIP, 6.6 K/9, 3.1 BB/9): Warren’s upside has been described as a #4, and looks like he has adjustments to make with another year in AAA.  Phelps should be next in line after Noesi.

Trade Candidates:
There is a deep class FA pitching class coming up in 2013, which could include Cain, Danks, Greinke, Hamels, Liriano, and Shaun Marcum.  Some of those guys will get extended, and some of them (Greinke, Liriano, Jonathan Sanchez) have too many red flags for the NYY to be aggressive.  However, there are two impending FA who might be interesting 2012 trade candidates.
9. Matt Cain (27, 3 year Avg. 4 WAR, $15 million in 2012): Cain looks like a true #2; 6 years at just below 4 WAR/year, a 3.69 career FIP, 1.11 WHIP the last 3 years, 132 ERA+, 7.2 K/9, 2.7 BB/9), and SFG has offensive holes that make them a viable trade partner.  Cain’s FlyB% (career 44%) has to be of some concern, but his ERA has consistently beaten his FIP and he has a skill for limiting HR (career HR/FB 6.5%; Sabathia 8.5%) and inducing pop-flies (career 12.5%, Sabathia 8% the last 3 years).  Cain can probably demand an extension of 6 years at $18-22 million.
10. John Danks (27, 3-year Avg. 3.4, Arb. 3 est. $10 million in 2012): Danks has been mentioned as a possible trade candidate if the CHW decide to rebuild.  His numbers the last 3 years are comparable to Jackson (112 ERA+, 1.27 WHIP, 6.9 K/9, 2.9 BB/9), and a bad 2011 suggests he could be a buy low candidate (ERA 4.3 but a FIP of 3.8).  Could probably get an extension of 5-6 years in the $15 million range.

Summary:
1. As I wrote this, it turned out that delving for a long man or lefty reliever just wasn’t that interesting.  Any of those AAA options could make sense in the long relief role, though it might not be their best use.  And I certainly hope that Cashman has the good sense to stop throwing multi-year contracts at the likes of Javier Lopez or Jeremy Affeldt.
2. The Yankees can reasonably afford Sabathia OR Wilson OR Cain AND one of Jackson, Darvish, Danks or Garcia, if they want to stay within a payroll of $210-215 million. If Sabathia opts out and cannot be re-signed, the Yankees could reasonably afford any two other pitchers on this list.
3. Given that Matt Cain would probably cost Montero, Nunez and a “B”, this looks like an emergency option if Sabathia leaves.  Danks is intriguing, because he is relatively under the radar compared to Cain, a little cheaper and might not take Montero.  Or the Yanks could go with a couple of wild cards (Darvish & Jackson), or they could see what they have with the kids, though a rotation without Sabathia, Cain, or Wilson makes it unlikely that they would return to the playoffs.  A rotation of Sabathia, Nova, Hughes, Burnett, and Garcia/Noesi is probably enough to secure the WC, but not enough to make a deep playoff run.

In the next day or two, I’ll take a look at some of the candidates for the UT IF and backup C roles.