The NYY by the Numbers (2): The 2012 Roster, Part I

In my first post, I looked at the overall production by position of the NYY in 2011.  That post identified sources of strength (the OF generally, the IF offense and the bullpen) and areas of concern (SP, DH, and IF defense).  In this post, I’ll look at the players likely to return to the NYY 25-man roster in 2012, and use this process of elimination to identify the remaining roster holes and the overall fiscal constraints the FO will operate under in 2012.  In a third post, I will suggest some options for filling each remaining position.

As I write, I will assume a salary cap of roughly $210 million for opening day.  Per Cot’s, the NYY had a payroll of $207 million in 2011, down from $213 in 2010 after the addition of Lance Berkman and Kerry Wood mid-season.

This discussion will assume that the NYY will use an 11-man pitching staff and a 14-man position pool.  I will also round league minimum to $.5 million.

Position breakdowns after the jump:

Starting Pitching
1. Phil Hughes (Arb2; est. 2.8): At this point in his development, Hughes looks like a middle-rotation starter.  Call Hughes SP #3.
2. Ivan Nova (.5): The same age as Hughes going into 2012, Nova also looks like a middle-rotation guy.  Call Nova SP#4.
3. AJ Burnett (16.5): AJ is basically a #5, with middle of the rotation upside.

Relief Pitching
4. Mariano Rivera (15): 9th Inning.  Hopefully he really does pitch to 50.
5. David Robertson (Arb1; est. 1.5): 8th Inning.  D-Rob could be in for some regression (looking at FIP, BABIP, HR & Strand%).  Hope for 1-2 WAR (2.8 in 2011).
6. Rafael Soriano (PlayOpt; 11): The good news: A much better 2nd half (3.3 ERA, 1.02 WHIP).  The bad news: a bad H/R split (.513 OPS vs. .745 @ YSIII). Even half of his 2009-2010 peak (.75-1 WAR) would be valuable from a "7th inning guy".  Just not $11 million valuable.
7. Boone Logan (Arb2: est. 1.5): Still our best LOOGY, given that we paid Marte and Feliciano $8 million to make zero appearances this year.
8. Cory Wade (est 1): Given that Joba Chamberlain had TJ surgery June 8, we should not expect to see him before the ASB.  Until then, Wade would be an able "6th inning guy".

Infield
9. Mark Teixeira (23.15): Let’s hope for an offensive adjustment against RHP. Tex should be back in the 3-hole vs. LHP and the 5th vs. RHP.
10. Robinson Cano (TmOpt 14): Cano, turning 30, is now the heart of the Yankee attack and should bat cleanup.
11. Derek Jeter (16): Look for Jeter to bat leadoff and play 130-140 games at SS, with another 10 at DH.
12. Alex Rodriguez (29): A-Rod’s salary drops next year, but is still the highest in the game; good production would be 120 games at 3B (90 this year) and another 20 at DH, with 30 HR and a .280 BA.

Outfield
13. Brett Gardner (Arb1; est. 3): Look for him to bat 9th, steal 50 and play epic D.  Should continue to work on his bunting and running instincts (Gardner often seems to put hitters in a hole while waiting for him to run).
14. Curtis Granderson (TmOpt; 10): A steal.  Look for him to bat 2nd, play serviceable D in CF, and hit closer to 30 HR after a career offensive year.
15. Nick Swisher (TmOpt; 10.25): Swish might wilt in the postseason, but the value he provides during the year is still essential to getting us there (avg. 3.7 WAR/season in NY).  How the Matt Kemp negotiations play out could have a big say on whether this is his last season in the Bronx.

Catcher/DH
16. Russell Martin (Arb4; est. 6.5): Look for Martin to catch 110-120 games; Girardi should give him regular rest against tough RHP throughout the year.
17. Jesus Montero: Next year we will have a better sense if Montero, 22 will be Mauer with power, Victor Martinez (a part-time C/1B/DH) or a pure DH.  Look for Jesus to DH 100-120 games and C another 40, so the NYY can evaluate and work on his D.  Look for 25-30 HR power and a big upgrade at DH.

Resources under team control who should not be on the 25 man
1. Joba Chamberlain (Arb 2, est. 1.5): It is very possible that Chamberlain won’t be on the ML roster at all in 2012.  At the very least, he’ll spend the 1st half of the season rehabbing.

Resources under team control who should not return
1. Damaso Marte (Buyout; $.25): Owed $4 million or the buyout.  Pitched 18 innings over the past two seasons.  Thanks for 2009, Damaso.
2. Pedro Feliciano (4): It looks like we’ll pay Feliciano $8 million to never throw a pitch, continuing Cashman’s record of middle relief overpays.  DFA him to AAA or release him outright.

Summary
A. 17 of the 25 roster spots are established going into 2012.
B. Those 17 roster spots, plus the money going to Chamberlain, Marte, and Feliciano will cost $167.95 million in 2012, leaving roughly $45 million for the remaining 8 (with 80-90% of this money going to SP).

C. The remaining slots include, in order of importance:
1. A #1 starter (assuming CC opts out);
2. A #2 starter;
3. A Utility MIF who can expect to start at least 60 games btw. SS & 3B;
4. A RH 4th OF to rest especially Gardner vs. LHP (75 wRC+ this season, 84 career);
5. A defensive backup C;
6. A Utility CIF, preferably one who can play 3B and PH LH;
7. A long reliever; and
8. A 5th OF for PR and defensive replacement.

D. For each spot, the FO has three options: Sign a free agent; trade for a player who fills the role; or find an internal remedy.  Some (like the #1 starter) can only be solved through FA, while others (like the long man) might be best solved internally.
E. Just because a player wasn't mentioned here doesn't mean they shouldn’t be back, just that there are concerns about health (Cervelli), development (Romine) or effectiveness (Nunez) that prevent them from being automatic.