2011 projection, Yanks 96 & 66, Boston 96 & 66
by Cbeck3 on Jan 8, 2011 11:30 AM EST
Email
PrintWe are about a month before pitchers and catchers so I thought I’d try to project the year for Yanks and Boston. I like numbers and wanted to try to use the formula for Pythag wins as a basis. Then I could go through the stats and develop a less biased estimate. Going in I was emotionally pessimistic. After the analysis I’m excited.
Analysis of the Yankee offense is pretty easy, because not much has changed. Returning Yanks had 4,905 ABs last year. Players no longer with the team had 950 Abs. Returners scored 786 runs v 115. Returners drove in 746 v 119. Returners had a OBS of .793 v .739.
Do we expect the returning players to be better or worse? I started to look at the Yanks history of runs scored, but going back changes the team to Damon, Matsui, etc. Instead I’ll look at the players. I expect a minor bounce back from Jeter, Arod, and Tex. Jeter’s down year may signal a decline but I expect 2011 to be better than 2010, probably around half way back to historic numbers. Arod and Tex had injury problems and I hope they’ll be healthier. I am prepared for minor regression from Cano and Gardner. (personally I hope for a breakout year for GGBG but didn’t put that in the analysis so we wouldn’t argue that now.) I expect solid years from Swish and Grandy, probably similar to this year. Grandy might be better, Swish might regress, who knows? So, everywhere but catcher and DH I expect a small improvement in performance.
At DH Thames played 82 games with OPS of .491. Posada played 120 games last year between catching and DH and had Ops of .454. If he is able to adapt to DH, and I see no reason he shouldn’t he may be more productive because of feeling better. Still this looks like a wash. The advantage is Posada switch hits pretty well. Thames had trouble with righties. Posada will not be neutralized by an opponent’s pitching move.
So, the only remaining question is catcher. Here we have big questions. Can Martin and Montero outperform Posada and Cervelli offensively? I actually do not think so. If they do perform up to hype my runs estimate may be low.
When I put this all together I project a slight improvement in runs scored from 859 to 874. A similar analysis on the Red Sox shows a much greater improvement. My numbers show them edging the Yanks in runs scored with 875.
So, what can we project about pitching? Last year the Yanks gave up 693 runs. Returning pitcher (without Pettitte) pitched 951 innings v 528 for departers. ERA for returners was 3.88 v 4.64. WHIP for returners was 1.28 v 1.39. I do not know who will pick up the extra innings but I estimate the replacement pitchers at WHIP 1.4 and ERA 4.8. I think these are pretty achievable numbers. With no bounce back for AJ or CC, and no regression for Hughes (I guess all these will happen and wash) I show a slight degradation of the staff to 720 runs allowed. This gives the Yanks an estimate of 874 scored, 720 allowed. This gives a Pythag win % of .593, w 96 l 66.
If Pettitte returns I think he’ll save the Yanks 20 runs and raise the team to 99-63. This is still a good team.
Analysis of the RS made me guess run improvement from 818 to 875. While the pitching staff is about the same they had a lot of injuries. In 2010 they gave up 744 runs. I expect them to improve for 2011 marginally. I guess 724 runs allowed. This makes my guess for 2011 875 scored, 724 allowed. Win % .594, record 96-66.
Wow, I guess it’s a coin toss. Let’s play ball!
17 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
It's hard to predict now.
Did the Red Sox become a better team, on paper? yeah, but they did last year with lackey too apparently. Did a lot of people have the Yankees out of the playoffs last year? yeah, so it’s hard to say.
Your thinking is solid.
I think the Red Sox will allow a few more runs with Youk’s defense at third- even if Gonzalez is as good as Youk at 1st, Youk is a class below Beltre at 3rd.
The big question mark for me centers on bullpens- teams with great bullpens tend to outperform their Pythag. The Red Sox bullpen is improved, but how much? The Yanks’ bullpen is better now than at this time last year, but not as good as once they added Wood.
On the other hand, I see no reason to expect much bounce back from Arod or Jeter- if they do it’s a bonus, but in their late 30s without steroids, we shouldn’t count on it. And there’s also no reason for me to think Cano can repeat his last season.
For the Yanks and Sox, it will come down to which side plays best head to head. For the Yanks to repeat 2009, they’ll need everyone healthy, and for the pitching staff to come together in a way I’m not sure is possible. Yes, 1.4 WHIP and 4.8 ERA from the 4 and 5 starters is possible, but it leaves no margin for error at the top of the rotation.
"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."
Hughes and CC can regress only to the extent AJ progresses
If AJ is poor to bad they must be grat or we’re in trouble. At least innings won’t be an issue this year unless one of the B’s breaks in big time.
"I’m never really surprised, but I am thrilled sometimes." Joe G. 2010
Solid thinking
And it’s too early to predict anything I think.
However, the expectation for Burnett to repeat last season I think is laughable. And if he does repeat last year, the Yankees are gonna be in trouble, especially if Andy doesn’t come back. For AJ I think a bounceback to 2009 form is far more likely than a repeat of 2010.
I’d say for the rotation next year (if Andy comes back) you’d get a similar season out of CC, slight improvement out of Hughes, big improvement out of AJ, regression from Andy (if he comes back, he’s not repeating a 2.8 ERA) although not too much, and then Nova may give the Yankees a solid rookie year. Hopefully.
Like I said, it’s way to early to predict, although AJ is really the only thing I disagree on. He’s gonna be better than he was in 2010.
"I'll do whatever it takes to win games, whether it's sitting on a bench waving a towel, handing a cup of water to a teammate, or hitting the game-winning shot."- Kobe Bryant
Please come back Andy!
Didn’t you hear? The Red Sox are going to be historical this year. They will win 162 games, and then sweep the World Series in one game because the other team will forfeit. The entire team will be voted the MVP and Cy Young, and immediately admitted into the hall of fame. Geez, I thought everyone already knew this by now.
Russell Martin is just like the Jewish Pharisees, trying to keep Jesus down.
by Wraithpk on Jan 8, 2011 5:37 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
no they'll repeat the Patriots fate
go undefeated, and then lose to the Yankees in the playoffs.
"I'll do whatever it takes to win games, whether it's sitting on a bench waving a towel, handing a cup of water to a teammate, or hitting the game-winning shot."- Kobe Bryant
Please come back Andy!
Only 3 AL teams allowed more runs than Boston last year
And they’ve done little to improve the staff. They’re relying on injury recovery and bounce back years to make them outstanding.
Actuallly seems very optimisttic to me.
"I’m never really surprised, but I am thrilled sometimes." Joe G. 2010
Yeah very optimistic
But if anyone gets lucky with injuries it is the Sox barring last year of coarse. During the most recent rivalry it has always seemed like Boston stayed relatively healthy while the Yanks always lost one of there bigger stars for extended periods. That could just be because it hits so close to home though.
I'm going to take a flyer and predict Cash finally satisfys his boner for Jarrod Washburn before seasons end. Anyone else wonder if Damons bed is one of those WWE ring with ropes sleeper? I'm looking for volunters to try out my new taser (only bandwagoners need apply).
by cashman bashman on Jan 8, 2011 8:53 PM EST up reply actions
What about Boston?
Good job on the Yanks but then you just made a one line statement about Boston with no analysis. We pretty much know their line-up by now. Give a shot. Will Pedroia be fully recovered from his broken ankle?
I think Pedroia will play 120 games and struggle for health
I am not interested in the RS enough to write a detailed evaluation and defend it.
I said they’re offense will be better, leading the majors in runs. Since they are back with the same rotation, and I don’t expect a huge turn around from those same pitchers, They are only a coin toss with the Yanks.
I did not try to do the Rays because it’e too hard with this because they are rplacing known contributors with youngsters with little or no BL record.
"I’m never really surprised, but I am thrilled sometimes." Joe G. 2010
Predicting injuries, other than Carl Pavano's, and maybe Ben Sheets' is nearly impossible.
Neither the Yankees nor the Red Sox will win 96 games, or come particularly close. This analysis neglects just one thing- every other team they play, especially in the division. The Orioles will be tougher, and I don’t expect as much of a drop from Tampa Bay as everyone else- there’s too much good pitching coming up, and enough good pitching already on the roster. Toronto is certainly looking for bounce- back years from guys who were awful in 2010. 91 or 92 games may well win the division.
by designatedquitter on Jan 11, 2011 10:42 AM EST reply actions
i agree
i do not think the Yanks or Sox will go 12-6 against the Orioles and Jays and run away at the top this year
CRAWWL MEAT!!
by Brian5517209 on Jan 11, 2011 3:19 PM EST up reply actions
The methodology used was to predict
runs scored and runs allowed. There is a formula to predict records from those numbers. It is expected to be a margin for error. The biggest unknown is the performance of new big leagers, so the method works best for vet teams like NY and Boston.
You pick a number and show how much smarter you are.
"I’m never really surprised, but I am thrilled sometimes." Joe G. 2010
I think this is a flawed method at best. Roster turnover, injuries, age, and quailty of competition make looking at the previous year's output too iffy.
I think I’m already on record here as saying that the Yankees look like a third place team in 2011. Starting pitching is huge in my view, and the Yankees have 1/2 a staff right now. They are also aging on the left side of the infield (no names will be mentioned) faster than we would like to think. I think 92 wins will take the division, nobody wins less than 72, and the Yankees get 86-89 wins.
A trade for a quality starting pitcher would change my view, as would a major injury to Sabathia, Hughes, or Cano.
by designatedquitter on Jan 13, 2011 10:26 AM EST up reply actions
You underestimate the Yanks
The team is largely the same as last year, less Pettitte and Javy V plus Martin and Jesus. Pettitte was solid. Javy no loss. We seem likely to be improved at catcher.
Pitching will need young people or Mitre to improve production, but results are likely to be better than last year.
We’ll see soon enough.
"I’m never really surprised, but I am thrilled sometimes." Joe G. 2010
Yes we will. Hopefully not the team that was barely .500 in the last two months.
I can’t equate the addition of Martin with the loss of Pettitte, and I don’t know who will even replicate Vazquez’ 10-10 record. I hope that I feel like a fool in 8 months.
by designatedquitter on Jan 13, 2011 4:48 PM EST up reply actions
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Pinstripe Alley
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- Snoop Dogg delivers memorable first pitch at U.S. Cellular Field
- The Juice: Mesoraco’s grand slam helps Reds complete four-game sweep of Braves
- Please hold: Indians’ Joe Smith jumps the gun on relief appearance
- Local radio host honors Cubs’ Tony Campana with parody song
- Roy Halladay bobblehead with glove on wrong hand selling on MLB.com
