25 chasing No. 28 - The 2011 New York Yankees roster: Phil Hughes

by 3460kuri on Jan 31, 2011 11:00 AM EST in New York Yankees Analysis

Name: Phil Hughes, Starting Pitcher
DOB: 6/24/1986
Contract Status: 1st year of arbitration eligibility - signed a 1 year, $2.7 million contract on 1/18/2011
2010 stats: 18-8, 4.19 ERA, 2.4 WAR, 4.25 FIP
2010 in review: Hughes met and exceeded most reasonable expectations in 2010. Originally intended to be the Yankees 5th starter out of Spring Training, he became their de facto No. 2 for most of the second half after Andy Pettitte went down with an injury. This may have taken a small toll, as the Yankees couldn't afford to give him the occasional day off that he probably needed, and he definitely slipped in the 2nd half and postseason, but this is par for the course with young pitchers.

The Good: Hughes proved beyond a shadow of a doubt that, even though he'd be great in the bullpen, he can cut it as a starter too. He's got good command, an above-average strikeout rate, and showed signs of durability in 2010, completing the 7th inning in half of his first-half starts despite never going above 109 pitches in any of them.

The Bad: At this point, there are only two real marks against Hughes. One is the fact that he's a 25-year old pitcher and carries all of the risk and baggage associated with his age. The other is the fact that he's a flyball pitcher playing half of his games in one of the more favorable home run parks in baseball. The Yankees figure to have an above-average outfield defense in 2011, which will help him, but they can't catch it if it leaves the park.

2011 outlook: Hughes is an odd test case for the Verducci effect; his innings totals for the past five seasons are 146, 110.3, 69.2, 105.3, and 176.3. He's struggled with some injuries, but none of them have been arm-related. He's approaching the age where the inherent risk of injury drops, so the outlook for 2011 is fairly good. Hughes will open the season as the Yankees de facto #2 starter, and if he can consistently pitch like he did in the first half of 2010, he should earn the title.

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My only fear with Hughes is injury or dead-arm in 2011.

I just think of Cole Hamels in 2009 after hitting inning highs in 2008. His arm seemed dead all year (to the benefit to the Yankees though).

by upstateNYYFan1984 on Jan 31, 2011 11:49 AM EST reply actions

Hamels pitched 268 innings in 2008 though

That’s a lot for anyone, especially someone whose previous career high was 183. I think as long as the Yankees keep Hughes around 200 this year, dead arm shouldn’t be a problem.

by Let's Talk About Tex Baby on Jan 31, 2011 12:20 PM EST up reply actions

The Yankees are in big trouble if Hughes can't replicate last season.

Ideally, it would be great if he could reach 200 innings. With the #4 and #5 slots looking like piecework slots, CC, AJ, and Hughes all need to crack 200 innings or the pen will disintegrate.

by designatedquitter on Jan 31, 2011 12:03 PM EST reply actions

I'm looking for about the same from Hughes

and CC. AJ is the big question mark. I think the success or failure of the Yankees for ’11 is all tied into how AJ performs…No pressure, none at all AJ.

There's always next year

by david d on Jan 31, 2011 12:03 PM EST reply actions

Agree about AJ's impact on Yankee season plus whether we get another quality SP for the rotation or not

If AJ has another poor season & Pettite or a viable replacement for the rotation is not signed, we can expect a sub 90 win season at best and no post season appearance in 2011.

With trades unlikely for a quality starter before mid- season and if Pettite gives us a “definite no” I would look to sign Millwood as a stop gap 4th starter until mid season when others might be available. We should never let Mitre be our 5th starter… long relief/mop-up duty only for him.

by YANKEES FOREVER on Jan 31, 2011 12:55 PM EST up reply actions

Unfortunately, I don't have much faith in AJ.

When he’s on he’s very good. When he’s bad though, it can get ugly fast.

"When my time on Earth is gone, and my activities here are past, I want they bury me upside down so all my critics can kiss my a**"- Bob Knight

"Talent is God-given, be grateful. Fame is man-given, be humble. Conceit is self-given, be careful."- John Wooden

"Never take anything for granted. Don't forget, great prices have been paid and will be paid again if you become too smug, too egotistical and self-assured."- Johnny Cash

by JumpinJackFlash on Jan 31, 2011 3:55 PM EST up reply actions

Agreed

Burnett is key for the Yankees in 2011. If he can return to form, the Yankees have 3 solid starters at the top of the rotation. If he pitches poorly again, then I wouldn’t be surprised if the Yankees miss the postseason altogether.

"I'll do whatever it takes to win games, whether it's sitting on a bench waving a towel, handing a cup of water to a teammate, or hitting the game-winning shot."- Kobe Bryant

by nyyrocks29 on Jan 31, 2011 4:46 PM EST up reply actions

I hope Hughes is able to repeat what he did last year.

Even improve as much as possible. I hope people don’t have their expectations too high on him and demand he repeats what he did last year. He’s still relatively young. I think if AJ is able to get back to even 2009 form that will help a lot. I think we need a starter no doubt, but I have a little more of a calming knowing what the pen could potentially be.

by blevs4 on Jan 31, 2011 1:23 PM EST reply actions

My worry for Hughes is his lack of a third pitch.

The reason given for Phil winning the job over Joba last year out of spring training was the development of his change-up, a pitch he promptly abandoned once the season started.

We’ve been hearing about A.J.’s change-up in spring training for two years now as well, and he remains a two pitch pitcher.

"Here, if you have a milkshake, and I have a milkshake, and I have a straw. There it is, that's a straw, you see? You watching?. And my straw reaches acroooooooss the room, and starts to drink your milkshake... I... drink... your... milkshake!"-Daniel Plainview

by yankee come lately on Jan 31, 2011 1:57 PM EST reply actions

fastball, cutter, curveball

if he develops a change he would be a 4 pitch pitcher

SNIVELING HU-MAHNS!!

by Brian5517209 on Jan 31, 2011 2:09 PM EST up reply actions

Phil Hughes 2010 pitch selection:

vs RHB
Four-Seam Fastball: 56.7%
Cut Fastball: 23.3%
Curveball: 14.5%
Two-Seam Fastball: 4.9%
Change Up: 0.1%

vs LHB
Four-Seam Fastball: 57.9%
Curveball: 18.7%
Cut-Fastball: 13.1%
Change Up: 4.9%
Two-Seam Fastball: 4.5%

Like most pitchers with middling change ups, Hughes uses it almost exclusively against opposite handed batters.

Baseball Statistics and Acronyms Explained

by Lord Duggan on Jan 31, 2011 3:14 PM EST up reply actions

I just hope Hughes doesn't have a set back.

He’s still young.

Formerly known as Jeterian 2

Follow me on twitter

by Joe2195 on Jan 31, 2011 3:46 PM EST reply actions

IVAN NOVA TO THE RESCUE!!!

by Joe G. Blows on Jan 31, 2011 4:09 PM EST reply actions

Missing stat

What about his run support? I don’t have the stats at my fingertips but wasn’t his run support among the highest in the majors? That more than anything contributed to the 18 wins. In order for him to be an effective #2, I think he needs to get his ERA down. At minimum below 4.

by pyrcp on Jan 31, 2011 4:15 PM EST reply actions

I really hope Hughes figures out a better way to put batters away.

There were so many times last year he would get 2 strikes on a batter and then run the count full. I think if he can improve on that, he will have a good season and we really need him to.

People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring.

by WhatwouldJeterdo on Jan 31, 2011 4:44 PM EST reply actions

seriously

it seemed like it took him 9 pitches to get each batter out

SNIVELING HU-MAHNS!!

by Brian5517209 on Jan 31, 2011 5:28 PM EST up reply actions

The big thing for Hughes

is to put batters away when he’s able to. Too many times he gets to 0-2 and then he allows batters to constantly foul balls away and get on base. He has the stuff to do it, and he did it in the first half of the year. If he improves that and continues to develop as a pitcher that would be great.

"I'll do whatever it takes to win games, whether it's sitting on a bench waving a towel, handing a cup of water to a teammate, or hitting the game-winning shot."- Kobe Bryant

by nyyrocks29 on Jan 31, 2011 4:50 PM EST reply actions

I've noticed that too.

Formerly known as Jeterian 2

Follow me on twitter

by Joe2195 on Jan 31, 2011 5:13 PM EST up reply actions

I think this counts as a semi jinx.

People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring.

by WhatwouldJeterdo on Jan 31, 2011 5:16 PM EST up reply actions

If so

It will all be on your shoulders

There's always next year

by david d on Jan 31, 2011 5:23 PM EST up reply actions

Maybe.

But if he fixes it, I can take all the credit. I think.

People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring.

by WhatwouldJeterdo on Jan 31, 2011 5:24 PM EST up reply actions

I’ll gladly give you that

There's always next year

by david d on Jan 31, 2011 5:25 PM EST up reply actions

If you take the credit if he fixed it then,

can we blame you if he doesn’t. :P

"When my time on Earth is gone, and my activities here are past, I want they bury me upside down so all my critics can kiss my a**"- Bob Knight

"Talent is God-given, be grateful. Fame is man-given, be humble. Conceit is self-given, be careful."- John Wooden

"Never take anything for granted. Don't forget, great prices have been paid and will be paid again if you become too smug, too egotistical and self-assured."- Johnny Cash

by JumpinJackFlash on Jan 31, 2011 6:20 PM EST up reply actions

My contract doesn't work like that.

nyyrocks gets that portion.

People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring.

by WhatwouldJeterdo on Jan 31, 2011 6:28 PM EST up reply actions

I see said the blind carpenter as he grabbed his hammer and saw.

"When my time on Earth is gone, and my activities here are past, I want they bury me upside down so all my critics can kiss my a**"- Bob Knight

"Talent is God-given, be grateful. Fame is man-given, be humble. Conceit is self-given, be careful."- John Wooden

"Never take anything for granted. Don't forget, great prices have been paid and will be paid again if you become too smug, too egotistical and self-assured."- Johnny Cash

by JumpinJackFlash on Jan 31, 2011 6:34 PM EST up reply actions