Performance Predictions

by david d on Jan 27, 2011 2:25 AM EST

With Spring Training just two and a half weeks away, I wanted to put together a list of my predictions for how the projected starting 9 may perform at the plate for the 2011 season. So, after the jump I'll dive in.

1st Baseman, Mark Teixeira

.262, 25 HR, 97 RBI

I am expecting more regression from Tex. I think he'll be pitched to more and believe his walks will decrease. Look for a lower OBP and OPS.

2nd Baseman Robinson Cano

.329, 27 HR, 118 RBI

Robbie being Robbie. Another solid season from the Ninja. I think he will see a lot less pitches to hit, especially if he's batting 5th in the order, and expect his OBP to be higher as he should draw more walks. I'd like to see him bat third for two reasons; I believe he'll see better pitches to hit with A-Rod hitting behind him and second, since he'll more than likely be pitched around with probably Posada batting 6th, I am worried he may become impatient and take hacks at pitches he should avoid while being frustrated at getting pitched around.

3rd Baseman Alex Rodriguez

.295, 36 HR, 121 RBI

Not much to say here. A-Rod should be closer to 100% healthy and I think we'll see a small increase in A-Rod's average and OPS for another solid season. I do, however, expect this to be the last season before a steady decline beginning in '12.

Shortstop Derek Jeter

.307, 12 HR, 72 RBI, 115 R

I'm expecting a decent bounce back season from Jeter. He's been in Florida for several weeks now and seems determined to prove the doubters wrong. I think he'll succeed, he always has.

Left Fielder Brett Gardner

.283, 3HR, 51 RBI, 51 SB

I honestly didn't know which way to go here. One side of me says regression, but the optimistic side of me says slight improvement. I feel optimistic right now. I'm hoping Gardy works on bunting for hits and gets a bit more aggressive on the basepaths, leading to another surprising performance from Gardy for '11. Let's hope so.

Center Fielder Curtis Granderson

.277, 27 HR, 88 RBI

I'm hoping Grandy is a little more consistent. He can easily attain these numbers. If he found a permanent solution to his woes as he seemed to show in the last several weeks of '10, his average and HR totals may exceed my predictions. Either way, I'm expecting a solid season from Grandy as he gets more comfy in Yankee Stadium.

Right Fielder Nick Swisher

.256, 22 HR, 79 RBI

I think Swish will have a bit of an off year at the plate. I just feel he's due for some regression. This may be his last season as a Yankee and perhaps this, too, could affect his play. If he is having a down year, I also think he will see a little less playing time with the addition of Andruw Jones and possibly allowing for some playing time for Montero in RF.

Catcher Russell Martin

,248, 6 HR, 43 RBI

I don't really know what to expect from Martin, and obviously I'm not expecting a lot. We don't know how healthy he actually is and we don't know when the second coming will arrive, taking away some of his playing time.

Designated Hitter Jorge Posada

.278, 25 HR, 80 RBI

I feel Posada will have a good season at the plate. With less wear and tear on his body due to less time behind the plate and being able to concentrate solely on hitting, I think Jorge will go through a bit of a renaissance at the plate

Whatcha guys think?

Tweet Comment 29 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

I think you're a bit down on Tex

I expect him and Grandy to hit above the BA in your predictions

That is not a pic of me.

by Cup Noodles on Jan 27, 2011 9:20 AM EST reply actions

That is an improvement for Tex and would be a big improvement for Grandy.

There's always next year

by david d on Jan 27, 2011 1:09 PM EST up reply actions

It’s also about 30 points below his career average.

by KingHenrik on Feb 2, 2011 12:20 PM EST up reply actions

I think Posada and Gardner a little high

Tex I don’t think will regress like that.

Agree on Jeter. I think he’ll have a Jeter like year again.

Last night, a comedian died in New York. Somebody knows why. Somebody knows

by Rorschach44 on Jan 27, 2011 9:57 AM EST reply actions

Posada may be a stretch, I’m hoping the time off from behind the plate will allow him to be much healthier than in recent years. I’m worried about Tex. I think those numbers will hold.

There's always next year

by david d on Jan 27, 2011 1:11 PM EST up reply actions

Those are all pretty realistic

Except I think you’re way too pessimistic on Teixeira and a bit too positive on Posada.

Teixeira had his worst year since his rookie year last year, but he’ll be 31 this season not 37. I know people like to compare him to Giambi because of the position and the contracts, but Giambi was over 2 years older when he had his first down year and his body was breaking down because of steroid use. Tex had an even slower start than usual in 2010 but he hit well for the next 3 1/2 months until he got hurt in September and into the playoffs. 2010 was a down year, but not the beginning of the end.

As for Posada, he should be fresher as the DH, but I still can’t see him having the 3rd best power season of his career at age 39/40.

by Let's Talk About Tex Baby on Jan 27, 2011 10:04 AM EST reply actions

Agree

Excellent analysis of Tex. Also agree about Posada. I would love to see Tex hit to the opposite field from his left-hand stance just enough to stop the infield shift.

by alouishes on Jan 27, 2011 10:10 AM EST up reply actions

+2

by Scooby Snacks on Jan 27, 2011 12:04 PM EST up reply actions

This is pretty optimistic

That’s 792 RBI’s from the starters. You could be looking at a 900-950 run year by the time you add the bench players and runs scored without RBI. We’ll beat the Red Sox if we score this much.
I projected our total runs at 874. and a 96-66 record.

"I’m never really surprised, but I am thrilled sometimes." Joe G. 2010

by Cbeck3 on Jan 27, 2011 10:06 AM EST reply actions

it's 2007 all again baby!

SNIVELING HU-MAHNS!!

by Brian5517209 on Jan 27, 2011 12:08 PM EST up reply actions

Arod's going downhill

Physiology 101 teaches you that if you artificially pump up your body, you’re eventually going to pay for it. I hope I’m wrong for our team’s sake.

by alouishes on Jan 27, 2011 10:17 AM EST reply actions

even for centuars?

SNIVELING HU-MAHNS!!

by Brian5517209 on Jan 27, 2011 11:33 AM EST up reply actions

I like most of the predictions

But I doubt Tex is gonna regress that badly

by Yankees10 on Jan 27, 2011 10:51 AM EST reply actions

It would actually be an improvement over last season’s BA. His BB’s will drop and his K’s will rise…again.

There's always next year

by david d on Jan 27, 2011 1:13 PM EST up reply actions

Even including last year’s BA dip, Tex is a career .286 hitter. I don’t know why you would predict a 20+ point drop while he’s still in his prime. His 20% K rate last year with in line with his career norm as well as a slight bump up in BB%. His .268 BABIP was a career low from .303. A year with full health says Tex is going to perform a lot better in ’11.

by Scooby Snacks on Jan 27, 2011 1:59 PM EST up reply actions

I was referring more to the home runs

I dont see how hes gonna regress to only 25 homers when he has hit at least 30 every year in his career, except his rookie year

by Yankees10 on Jan 27, 2011 2:43 PM EST up reply actions

I'll tell you what

I hope the amount of runs you’re projecting the Yankees to score is accurate.

March 31st can't come soon enough.

by Chris McKeown on Jan 27, 2011 1:42 PM EST reply actions

Me too. I have a feeling we’re going to need ’em to compete.

There's always next year

by david d on Jan 27, 2011 1:45 PM EST up reply actions

No doubt

Starting pitching isn’t exactly the biggest strength.

March 31st can't come soon enough.

by Chris McKeown on Jan 27, 2011 5:00 PM EST up reply actions

Too optimistic on Gardner.

Though it certainly is possible that he continues to improve, the law of regression means that when projecting, you should assume that luck has a big impact when breakout years are concerned.

by ThePanda on Jan 27, 2011 1:53 PM EST reply actions

As stated, I wasn’t sure which way to go concerning Gardner. I really think last year was as good as it is going to get for Gardy, but I didn’t expect what we got so I’m hoping I’ll once again be pleasantly surprised.

There's always next year

by david d on Jan 27, 2011 2:03 PM EST up reply actions

Agree

Gardner’s really going to have to hustle to match last year’s numbers because he doesn’t have a “natural” swing. He’ll have to learn to bunt more effectively and be less predictable taking the first two strikes. If he hustles, he’ll be more prone to injury.

by alouishes on Jan 27, 2011 2:55 PM EST up reply actions

I don’t know why it’s necessary to have a “natural swing” to replicate last year’s performance. He’s fine as long as he keeps working pitchers and spraying the ball to all fields. Last season, Gardy had an exceptional 97.5% contact rate on pitches thrown inside the strike zone. If some of those batted foul balls turn into hits, his batting avg. should increase. I agree that he should continue to refine his bunting skills to counter those early strikes he sees.

by Scooby Snacks on Jan 27, 2011 6:41 PM EST up reply actions

Way too pessimistic on Teixeira

I see a similar batting average with around 33 HR and 105-110 RBI. Last year was the worst year of his career and he can only improve on it. I expect a season closer to 2009 than 2010 out of him.

I agree with a lot of the rest of you predictions. Posada I think will have a nice bounceback year as well being the DH instead of the catcher. It’ll keep him healthier and in better shape. Maybe not quite to the extent that you’re predicting, but I wouldn’t be surprised with a .280 BA with around 15-20 HR and 75-80 RBI.

"I'll do whatever it takes to win games, whether it's sitting on a bench waving a towel, handing a cup of water to a teammate, or hitting the game-winning shot."- Kobe Bryant

by nyyrocks29 on Jan 27, 2011 2:02 PM EST reply actions

I see no reason to expect Swisher to regress. The next number in the series 29, 29, is 29.

I would expect a batting average between .270 and .290, and at least 80 rbi.

I look for the most regression from ARod. I think expecting him to be healthy all year is asking a lot, and he barely got to 30 homeruns last year.

Martin is such a question mark in terms of ability and health that any prediction is a stab in the dark. If he’s unable to play, or if he’s hitting .205 on June 1, you could see a player who shall remain nameless called up from Wilkes Barre to replace him.

by designatedquitter on Jan 27, 2011 3:05 PM EST reply actions

No need to worry

I have just finished evaluating the new deer antler spray and it will be distributed equally among everyone. Don’t mind the spike in homeruns we can just tell the commish the wind has been blowing out all seaspon.

My weenie is polywampus.( Richard thisle = Dick weed.) What in the fudalumdunges is going on here?

by cashman bashman on Jan 27, 2011 7:09 PM EST reply actions

Thank God.

There's always next year

by david d on Jan 27, 2011 10:18 PM EST up reply actions

my take ??

I think A-rod and Jeter won’t approach those numbers. Regardless of Jeter working out,,,,age cannot be warded off by working out. He is a champ however so I expect him to have 180+ hits,,,that will be enough.

A-Rod will continue to be a borderline 30 homer 100 rbi guy. The sad part is he sits in the 4 hole all year long with runners galore on base. He too is getting older and has lost alot of move of range from the hip. He could use some of that Deer Antler Spray that Ray Lewis uses to help recuperate from injury.

I think Swish had a huge year last year. He is hitting his prime right now,,,,so I think he could duplicate last years numbers and if he becomes a middle of the order hitter in the 5th or 6th hole,,,he could smack in 100 runners.

I know Tex makes all the money. However I personally am against him sitting in a prime batting hole while hitting .200. I think Robbie 3 or even 4. A-Rod 3 or 4,Tex 5th or 6th ,Swish 5th or 6th,Posada following,Grandy following to start the year. Then mix and match as they hit or don’t hit.

What do people think of a line up like Gardy,Granderson or Swish then Jeter 1,2,3 with Cano 4th ?? Wonder what that would do as table setting for the big guys,,,Cano,Tex and A-Rod ?

Jeter hitting below lead off is an issue because he is a double play hitting machine. I think if he struggles,he needs to be dropped to ninth regardless of his Captain status.

Yanks line-up is a pretty good one. Anything after CC is a question mark,,,,hopefully CC stays healthy all year.

by archery john blaze on Jan 28, 2011 12:26 PM EST reply actions

Jeter in the lineup.

I don’t think it’s realistic to expect Jeter to be moved anywhere. True, he was one of the 3 worst hitters in the Yankees lineup in 2010 and it didn’t make sense for him to get the most plate appearances, but the firestorm that moving him to the bottom of the order would create just isn’t worth the benefit right now. It would be a distraction. I definitely wouldn’t put him in the middle of the order as that would just worsen the problem. For now the best option is to just bat him 1st and hope he has a better year.

by Let's Talk About Tex Baby on Jan 28, 2011 5:56 PM EST up reply actions