New York Yankee News: Prospects, Patience and Catcher Defense

by jscape2000 on Jan 12, 2011 7:40 AM EST in New York Yankees News

It's another day of snow, and another day of silence.

Let's have a little unsafe driving music- Slide by Goo Goo Dolls

Chad Jennings writes that the Yankees will take a slow and steady approach with their top draft picks from 2009, Cito Culver (SS) and Angelo Gumbs (2B/CF). Both were drafted out of high school, and there's nothing to be gained by letting them be overmatched.

Patience seems to be the Yankees' game plan with all their prospects, so this is no surprise.

Over at the Hardball Times, JT Jordan offers a calculation of catcher defense, and the opinion that the switch from Posada/ Cervelli to Martin is worth a full win over the course of the season.

Of course, the bulk of that value is derived from caught stealing rates, which do not (in my opinion) correlate with a catcher's performance in way that allows projection of future performance.

Remember when Ivan Rodriguez was a Yankee for 30 games at the end of '08? Maybe it's just small sample size, but I'm not surprised at all that it is the worst looking defensive line on his BR page. Seriously, he was 8 runs below average and posted a 26% caught stealing rate- that's 10% below what he's been posting in recent seasons, and 20% his career mark. Worst of his careeer.

Was Pudge suddenly worse? I don't think so; I think the Yankee pitchers couldn't hold runners, and it made the catcher look bad.

Here's the data you'd need for an adequate catcher defense metric- speed of the pitch to the plate, speed of the release to second base, position of the runner as he broke, and outcome. With that, you could know how much time the catcher really had to nail the runner, how fast the runner was to second, and (after gathering data around the league) whether or not an average catcher could have caught the runner in that situation.

I don't have that data- maybe as Pf/x expands it could grow in that direction.

Which is not to say that Jordan's idea is wrong- the Yankees will certainly be better with Martin behind the dish than Posada/ Cervelli, and around 12 runs better does sound like a reasonable estimate, but let's call it 10-14 with a stronger chance of coming in low than high. Don't take this number as gospel, no more so than any other number or the assessment of having watched the game.

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Two problems I have with this post

1. Another Patience post without the use of the song Patience by G N’ R, WTF?
2. Jose Molina also handled that Yankee staff in 08 for 97 games (81 starts) and led MLB with a 44.0% caught stealing rate. So that should debunk the whole " its the pitcher’s fault for not holding the runners" theory.

Should you choose to test my resolve in this matter, you will be facing a finality beyond your comprehension, and you will not be counting days, or months, or years, but milleniums in a place with no doors.

by YankeesJets on Jan 12, 2011 7:54 AM EST reply actions

Another possible metric system

For catchers would involve time from catching the ball to ball at second base. This would not tell safe or out but would measure the things the catcher can control. It would not be too hard to measure.

"I’m never really surprised, but I am thrilled sometimes." Joe G. 2010

by Cbeck3 on Jan 12, 2011 8:09 AM EST via mobile up reply actions

I would think that teams measure this already

by YankeesJets on Jan 12, 2011 8:12 AM EST up reply actions

I know they do.
It’s just not been made publicly available.

"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

by jscape2000 on Jan 12, 2011 8:45 AM EST up reply actions

Molina was great, and within spitting distance of his career level: 41%.
You’re right- watching Martin will be very interesting.

"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

by jscape2000 on Jan 12, 2011 8:51 AM EST up reply actions

Yep

Molina was/is a very special defensive player. There have been times when no one in the Big Leagues was as good. IMO.

"I’m never really surprised, but I am thrilled sometimes." Joe G. 2010

by Cbeck3 on Jan 12, 2011 9:28 AM EST up reply actions

Those Molina boys sure can catch

by YankeesJets on Jan 12, 2011 10:02 AM EST up reply actions

+1

Section 203 Row 15 Seat 1

by jramey on Jan 12, 2011 10:35 AM EST up reply actions

Molina did a good job with your team.

In Lax We Trust -
Offical Pro Lacrosse Blog of SBN

by Marisa Ingemi on Jan 12, 2011 10:43 AM EST via mobile up reply actions

I remember

Pudge was having arm issues when he came to the Yanks. He was NOT throwing his typical LAZERS that became his trademark. People were talking that he had lost his edge was washed up. However that offseason he healed up and came back strong. I think he had a touch of shoulder bursitis or something when the Yanks got him. the sad thing is was that he was excited to be a Yankee and just couldn’t do what he wanted to do.

by archery john blaze on Jan 12, 2011 11:35 PM EST up reply actions

I loved Molina

behind the plate. They have enough other hitters on the club to make up for a strong defense/weak hitting catcher.

by jessie1 on Jan 12, 2011 9:43 AM EST reply actions

Martin

has a worse Flg Pct than Posada and has thrown out 31% of base stealers compared to Posada’s 28%, which has been brought down in recent years. I don’t think he’s going to be much of an upgrade defensively.

There's always next year

by david d on Jan 12, 2011 10:03 AM EST reply actions

Well at least there won't be that be that belly-high, 90's fastball that Posada seems to miss alot.

I guess it’s just reflexes regarding age

Section 203 Row 15 Seat 1

by jramey on Jan 12, 2011 10:37 AM EST up reply actions

Yes

We should see less passed balls

There's always next year

by david d on Jan 12, 2011 10:39 AM EST up reply actions

You also are going by career numbers

Go by numbers from last year, its not even close. Even I didnt realize Jorge was at only 15% last year. The Molina boys couldve probably stole a bag on Posada last year.

by YankeesJets on Jan 12, 2011 11:20 AM EST up reply actions

Yeah, that’s why I made the comment about Posada’s numbers being dragged down the last couple years. We should get about the same as Posada from 3 years ago with a few less passed balls and a few more throwing errors. Thus, not much of an improvement, but better than last year’s Posada.

There's always next year

by david d on Jan 12, 2011 11:27 AM EST up reply actions

They are two different people, dont see how you can make such an assumption

by YankeesJets on Jan 12, 2011 12:32 PM EST up reply actions

I just don’t see him as a defensive improvement. We also have to wonder what kind of effect his hip injury will have; Will it slow him down from coming out of the crouch while attempting a throw?
I guess we’ll soon find out.

There's always next year

by david d on Jan 12, 2011 12:40 PM EST up reply actions

We are talking about replacing a 15% catcher

Tony Pena could get behind the plate this season and do better. Hell, Jake Taylor could come out of retirement and do a better job behind the plate. I get that you dont like Martin, but its too bad, he is the starting catcher now. Root for him or you are anti Yankee.

by YankeesJets on Jan 12, 2011 1:02 PM EST up reply actions

What?

Has nothing to do with liking him. I don’t know if I like him or not. Look at his stats. Sometimes you really say some silly things.

There's always next year

by david d on Jan 12, 2011 1:04 PM EST up reply actions

Silly?

You are debating if this guy will be an improvement, how could he not be? Its obvious you dont seem to like him. I was never a NJ guy but I rooted for him anyway. I hope Martin has a better year than Mauer. Will he? Probably not, but I can hope for it.

by YankeesJets on Jan 12, 2011 1:16 PM EST up reply actions

Bengie did

on national television

Section 203 Row 15 Seat 1

by jramey on Jan 12, 2011 6:33 PM EST up reply actions

Stealing Duggan's little music shtick, eh jscape?

I think you mean you couldn't care less because if you could care less it means that you care a little bit.

by noonoo on Jan 12, 2011 11:04 AM EST via mobile reply actions

His shtick?

From time to time, I’ll drop one in there. I was doing music with game recaps in 2007. http://www.pinstripealley.com/2007/9/20/0149/76364

I don’t mean to play the elder statesman card, because I love what Duggan has brought to the blog, but it’s all been done before.

"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

by jscape2000 on Jan 12, 2011 2:00 PM EST up reply actions

Short attention span.

Even shorter short term memory.

I think you mean you couldn't care less because if you could care less it means that you care a little bit.

by noonoo on Jan 12, 2011 5:36 PM EST up reply actions

I think Fack Youk was big on it before they shut down

Section 203 Row 15 Seat 1

by jramey on Jan 12, 2011 6:34 PM EST up reply actions

Where will Culver and Gumbs start out? Staten Island?

Theodore Bridgewater Bandwagon

by TheRealSlimShady on Jan 12, 2011 11:59 AM EST reply actions

Culver finished out last season at Staten Island (where he didn’t impress, to say the least) so I’d guess he’ll start this season out there.

There's always next year

by david d on Jan 12, 2011 12:30 PM EST up reply actions

Oh boy...

According to Buster Olney of ESPN.com, the Rays have signed Kyle Farnsworth to a one-year, $3.25 million contract with an option for 2012.

People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring.

by WhatwouldJeterdo on Jan 12, 2011 1:23 PM EST reply actions

that's not good

i always wanted someone to charge the mound when he was pitching with us, considering he is a blackbelt

CRAWWL MEAT!!

by Brian5517209 on Jan 12, 2011 2:18 PM EST up reply actions

Farny crying when told he was no longer Yankee turned me into a fan instantly

It means a lot to me when a player respects what the pinstripes are all about.

by YankeesJets on Jan 12, 2011 4:54 PM EST up reply actions

I'm with you

Lets hope he gets the chance to karate chop some Red Sox dudes. The Rays have their fair share of brawls, don’t they?

The idiot formerly known as pkyankeefan! Now in Technicolour!

by Hasan Paliwala on Jan 12, 2011 7:11 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

the only thing i liked about molina was his ability to throw out runners.

i thought he was lazy with blocking the ball, and too many times i saw him try to back hand a ball instead of getting down and blocking it with his chest

I believe in the Church of Baseball
Free FreeBradshaw!

by Frank Campagnola on Jan 12, 2011 1:36 PM EST reply actions

You forgot about his real day job

Babysitting AJ

The idiot formerly known as pkyankeefan! Now in Technicolour!

by Hasan Paliwala on Jan 12, 2011 3:46 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

I keep forgetting that you're pkyankeefan and then I

look at your sig.

For every action, there is a corresponding over-reaction.

by TheMelkman on Jan 12, 2011 6:01 PM EST up reply actions

Took me a few days to get used to as well!

The idiot formerly known as pkyankeefan! Now in Technicolour!

by Hasan Paliwala on Jan 12, 2011 7:11 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

He didnt just say that! Did he?

Lifelong yankee fan first post. Can the yankees cut the for the most part useless posada give him a bullpen job with the catchers sign vlad the impaler for the DH spot and let martin cervelli and montero do there thing? Or is that to farfetched?

by BobbyLite on Jan 12, 2011 6:02 PM EST reply actions

cut posada?

yes, that is crazy. and since when is Vlad the “impaler?” lol

I believe in the Church of Baseball
Free FreeBradshaw!

by Frank Campagnola on Jan 12, 2011 7:43 PM EST up reply actions

nvm i forgot about that nickname haha

I believe in the Church of Baseball
Free FreeBradshaw!

by Frank Campagnola on Jan 12, 2011 7:44 PM EST up reply actions

in 120 games last year posada batted .248 with 57 RBI’s. Vlad last year batted in 152 games and batted a even .300 with 115 RBI’s. Hes a much more feared hitter and still probably has the strongest arm in baseball. I know the yanks dont want another old man on there bench and he is a type a free agent. Cashman has said he wont lose a draft pick for anybody else but Lee. Is he worth it? To me definately id love to see him in pinstripes and see him throw just one person out at home trying to stretch it in the ninth.

by BobbyLite on Jan 12, 2011 8:17 PM EST reply actions

I don't want Vlad anywhere near the outfield.

Did you see the World Series?

People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring.

by WhatwouldJeterdo on Jan 12, 2011 8:23 PM EST up reply actions

O he was horrible, Im just dreaming. Hes worse then Manny. All I want is his bat, he’s got the best bat on the market and i just read that as long as Texas dont offer him arbitration no pick will be lost, which is why he probably hasnt been signed yet.

by BobbyLite on Jan 12, 2011 8:35 PM EST up reply actions