Around The Yankees Galaxy 9/9/10
by 3460kuri on Sep 9, 2010 5:00 AM EDT
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PrintStatistics don't mean a lot when it comes to some our perceptions about baseball. This isn't necessarily a bad thing. From an entertainment perspective, we wouldn't want to award the World Series trophy to the team with the best run differential, or give the Cy Young award to the pitcher with the best xFIP. That would be pretty boring.
But statistics aren't inherently bad, and analysis can be entertaining (at least it is to me). And I'm fascinated at how there can sometimes be such a divergence between what our perception says and what the statistics suggest.
Try a little experiment with me. Before reading further, take the poll:
Hughes is the winner, right? He has to be. But why?
Here's my point. Joba Chamberlain's 2009 season was widely viewed as a disappointment. He posted a 90 ERA+, 4.56 xFIP, and 1.5 WAR. Not bad, especially not bad for a 24 year old starting pitcher in the AL East, but his performance was nowhere near the massively unrealistic expectations placed upon him. Fast forward to 2010, where Phil Hughes has been viewed as a success while posting (so far) nearly identical numbers (93 ERA+, 4.36 xFIP, and 1.9 WAR) as a 24 year old starting pitcher in the AL East.
Obviously, Hughes has been the better pitcher. He's gone deeper in games on average, and for the most part has avoided the 4.2 inning, 110 pitch stinkers that Joba posted about once a month last season. Yet with the season nearly over, the difference in their actual value is relatively small - 3 points of ERA+, 20 points of xFIP, and .4 WAR - but the difference in their perceived value is massive. Why? Why is Hughes going to be in the postseason rotation, yet Joba was banished to the bullpen last October? Why won't Hughes have to fight for his rotation spot in spring training next year?
If you can answer these questions, please share. You're smarter than I am.
- Looks like Jorge Posada is alright. He'll be day-to-day, which is fine, as the Yankees are virtually a lock for the playoffs at this point.
- It's About The Money highlights another recent example of why the save statistic is counterproductive.
- Andy Pettitte might get a playoff win tonight, against a bunch of guys who are 20 years younger than he his. And you thought that could only happen with Jamie Moyer....
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my thoughts
I think you answered the question yourself.. Hughes on average, goes deeper into ball games giving the bullpens much needed rest.
I firmly believe Hughes still has to fight for his rotation spot next season.. But I also believe he will earn his position back for another season..
I am definitely cheering for Andy! I know everyone else will be too!
Tough to call.
Hughes was much better to start off. But for long time he’s been a clone of Joba, only difference I guess is he battles through games and manages to get through 6.
But….Joba had those 3 great starts post ASB. Something Hughes hasn’t even sniffed since then, nothing like that. Then instead of just skipping a start..they go and make Joba pitch basically long relief games as the starter..3IP..the hell is that?
I think the answer’s Hughes. But really if the Yanks handled Joba the way they’re rolling with Hughes, maybe the answer is both.
Agree with everything you said
But my point was was more of a philosophical question than anything else. I think the actual answer is that both of them can be/should be starters.
Compare the two based on their stats through 24 starts (or right around the time the Yankees started Joba on the 65 pitch, 3 inning leash). Joba averaged 5.44 innings pitched per start over that stretch, while Hughes has averaged 6.01. Yeah, there’s a difference, but when you remember that Joba left one start due to injury after throwing 14 pitches and getting 2 outs, I think the gap closes to something like 1/3 per start.
So again:
the difference in their actual value is relatively small – 3 points of ERA+, 20 points of xFIP, .4 WAR – but the difference in their perceived value is massive
Why? I don’t like the “Hughes looks like a pro” argument. That’s so subjective. Butch Huskey just “sounds” like a good baseball player. Doesn’t mean he is.
exactly
Its all subjective. People still see Joba from teh pen as who he is.
But reality…they’re basically the same. Hughes in pretty much his first full year is going right to the same stuff that plagued Joba..not being able to put away hitters.
Both have excellent stuff, but it seems both don’t really have terrific command. That’s usually built up when you have a bunch of years of pitching a lot of innings every year. Something both of these guys don’t have.
Temperment, Attitude, Health
Hughes looks like a pro. He doesn’t look lost or intimidated on the mound.
When you’ve watched the two the way we have it’s reasonable to trust your own judgements. Trust them even if you cannot srticulate why you have made them.
It matters to me that Hughes has avoided being arrested and Joba has not. During his stay in the pen Hughes looked like a winner. Jobe has not(recently).
I believe that Joba had an arm injury which we haven’y heard much about. It is not clear he’ll ever be all the way back.
"You don't realize how easy this game is until you get up in that broadcasting booth." Mickey
I think another reason for the perception is simply the fact that Hughes started out well
and his decline to being average instead of good is tapered. Think about it, if Grandy had started the season piping hot and had gone in a slump to lead to his current numbers, might not a TON more people be happier with the signing?
I think a lot of us are too willing to form judgments on players early, and let them stick for longer than we should. I’m sure a lot of fans probably think Cervelli is an average hitter – which he isn’t by this point of the season.
by pkyankeefan on Sep 9, 2010 9:17 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
There’s a flaw in your argument.
Hughes and Joba were never equally valued as prospects. It was always Hughes first, Joba second. Joba is the lightning in a bottle, might be elite or might get hurt. Hughes was the best minor league pitcher in baseball, the top prospect in 2005 (?), and has worked his way more gradually to this point. Joba threw thunderbolts until he got hurt at the end of 2008 and he’s never been the same since.
Also, I wouldn’t say Joba was banished to the bullpen. The Yankees had the best record locked up last season, and they knew they could take a 3 starter path to the postseason. That put Joba in the pen. Had they needed a 4th starter, I think they would have gone (nervously) to Joba.
"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."
I disagree
Joba was projected as a top-of-the-rotation starter when he was drafted, just like Hughes.
If anything, I think Joba’s 2007 led people to value Joba more than Hughes, which is why Joba’s less-than-stellar 2009 seemed like more of a letdown.
"I am a man of great mental power." ~Alfonso Soriano
by Captain_Mick on Sep 9, 2010 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions
JOBA & HUGHES
Hughes will be an elite Yankee starter for years to come. On the other hand as bad or as hard luck as it seems I will trade Joba at the end of this season for maximum value.while i can still get it. Quick success and over expectations will make Joba’s life in pinstripes a never ending hell no matter what he does. I don’t believe he has the makeup or maturity to deal with it going forward. The Yankee fans are a fickle bunch and all you have to do is look at beginning of this year for him to see what he can expect to face going forward any time he has a bad stretch of games.
I think if you'd included "both" as a poll option
That would have attracted lots of votes. Picking between Hughes and Chamberlain, of course you have to go with the guy with the more recent (and better) track record as a starter, over the guy who is not even currently starting. That’s why I voted Hughes. Hughes is not a much better starter, but he is still objectively better.
But personally? I think they both could be successful; the team just needs to give both the opportunity. I thought they both were going to be in the rotation this year, and I was excited about that prospect, assuming Chamberlain could have given 180+ innings of league-average pitching or better – until they traded for Javy.
We’ll see what happens next year. With Joba getting his velocity back this year, I hope they do give him another shot to start, and perhaps make Hughes, Joba, and Nova compete for two slots.
"I am a man of great mental power." ~Alfonso Soriano
Here is the difference
Hughes Pre-ASB 2010: 16 GS, 11-2, 101 IP, 91/29 K/BB, OPS against .668, ERA 3.57
Chamberlain Pre-ASB 2009: 17 GS, 4-2, 89 IP, 78/42 K/BB, OPS against .817, ERA 4.25
There’s no mystery here: Hughes is a great pitcher who had a great start, but is still conditioning his way up to a 180-200 IP at the major league level. He’s just run out of gas. If the season ended in July, there would be no question who was more successful.
Joba, even when you give him a full pre-season of rest, is highly inconsistent and can’t go deep into games. Whether this is mechanical or comes back to attitude, I don’t know.
Like it has been said above me, they’ve pretty much been the same, and there is no good reason why it is assumed that Phil will be a much better starter than Joba. Here is why I think that perception exists though:
-2007. Obviously. People fell in love with the idea of Joba throwing 100 MPH and blowing people away in the bullpen.
-Joba got worse as the year went (which was to be expected), so by the end of the year, he looked a lot worse, and that’s what’s going to tend to be remembered.
-Phil got a TON of run support this year (that Joba never got) that has lead to a lot more pretty W-L record.
-Phil’s innings limit was higher and threw more minor league innings, so it was longer in the year before he started getting tired and getting limited.
I think they both belong in the rotation and I think that’s where they can contribute the most to the team in terms of production, and in terms of being cost effective assets. Hopefelly we haven’t seen the last of Joba in the rotation because of misconception and ticks on a radar gun.
I think Joba was really done a disservice by not being allowed to start without an innings cap this year, and I can only hope that it helped Phil’s development more than it stalled Joba’s. If it’s up to me, CC, AJ, Joba, and Phil are all definites in the 2011 rotation.
Questions or thoughts? Email me at duggan2423(at)gmail(dot)com
Most of this is demonstrably not borne out in the stats
1. Splits
Joba 2009 was the same pre- and post ASB, maybe even a little better in the second half:
OPS against: 817, then 783. WHIP: 1.56, then 1.52. His ERA did go from 4.2 to 5.4 in the second half, but he was the same underlying pitcher. Unless you take “got worse after his first couple of starts” to mean “got worse as the year went”.
Hughes 2010 has had much more pronounced season splits.
OPS against: 668 vs. 807. WHIP: 1.18 vs. 1.45. ERA: 3.65 vs. 5.5. In other words, Hughes was WAY better in the first half than Joba, but he and Joba have been pretty similar in the 2nd, and by bring Hughes out for more inning his ERA has inflated to Joba levels.
2. Run support.
2010 Hughes has gotten 6+ runs in 15 of 26 games (60%) and 3-5 in another 8 (30%). So 3+ runs in 90% of his starts.
2009 Joba got 6+ runs in 17 of 31 games (55%) and 3-5 in another 11 (33%).
Hughes might have a small boost in run support, but enough to explain 7 wins (and counting).
3. Prior innings of work (playoffs excluded):
Joba 2007-2008: 211
Hughes 2008-2009: 170
In other words, Hughes hasn’t had any more advantages than Joba in his first full year as a starter, and managed (until the past 6 weeks) much better results.
Sometimes I think it isn’t the people who think Joba should be in the pen (this year; next year I think he should start) who were dazzled by 2007, it was the people who somehow thought his stuff and makeup projected out to 180 innings as a starter.
Maybe it will happen, but the difference between Joba and Hughes isn’t perception.
by PortlandYankee on Sep 9, 2010 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions
They will both be in the starting rotation by 2012, and then the question will seem silly.
These guys are not 28 year old career minor leaguers who looked okay during an emergency callup. They’re both still young and learning. Joba’s been around since 2007, but he was called up during the pitching train wreck of 2007 at age 21. Hughes is the same story, with an injury thrown to delay his progress even more.
If neither of these guys is consistently good for another 2 or 3 years, that doesn’t mean that they stink or were slow to catch on or were mishandled, it just means that they’re normal young talented pitchers who took a few years to put it together.
by designatedquitter on Sep 10, 2010 9:24 AM EDT reply actions
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