Jeter's Struggles Simply Due to Contract Year?

by OTRWaldo on Sep 6, 2010 5:42 PM EDT

Back in February when Derek Jeter addressed the media regarding being a free agent for the first time after this season, he said the following:

"I've never been in that situation," Jeter said. "I've never been a free agent; I've never wanted to be a free agent. That's why I signed such a long deal. I felt, the longer the better, because I didn't want to have to answer these questions."

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Now Jeter has been known as an incredibly clutch player over the years, and even through the team's offensive struggles in past years, he would still be an effective hitter with RISP. Despite that, it seems like there have been instances where the pressure has certainly gotten to him. Closing in on Lou Gehrig's record for hits in a Yankee uniform, Derek went on the longest hitless slump of his career. In addition, he has not had a walkoff hit since August of 2007, despite all of those pies last year. I will note that this is not the best way to judge how well a player handles pressure, but searching for potential causes of Jeter's struggles, I am simply noting the possible rare examples of when tense situations may play a role for the worse in his at-bats.

So this season, this contract year, may be another setting that is affecting Jeter's performance. Of course, it is a much lengthier period of time than the few games in which Jeter was after 2,722 hits. But as the season has entered its final months, it seems as if the unusual rocky road for El Capitan is only getting rougher. Who's to say that in Jeter's mind, it isn't the free agency picture becoming bigger and bigger everyday that has caused us to see less Jeterian hits? Sure, you can expect Derek's mindset to primarily be success in October baseball. But how much can you ignore having to discuss a new contract just weeks after?

"I've never wanted to be a free agent."

"I didn't want to have to answer these questions."

There are not many other possibilities that come to mind as to why Jeter, of all players, could have gone from having the season he had in 2009 to struggling to get behind pitches and drive them to right field at a crucial time in the following season.

The Yankees established the policy of not negotiating expiring contracts during the season to eliminate distractions. That may have come back to bite them this season. They might want to remember that before bringing the captain's 2010 struggles into deciding what they want to offer him.

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Now Jeter has been known as an incredibly clutch player over the years, and even through the team’s offensive struggles in past years, he would still be an effective hitter with RISP.

Wrong. Let’s actually look some of his situational triple slashes (AVG/OBP/SLG):

2010
Bases Empty: .288/.347/.383 .730 OPS
RISP: .254/.345/.430 .775 OPS

2009
Bases Empty: .359/.420/.511 .931 OPS
RISP: .259/.380/.356 .736 OPS

2008
Bases Empty: .300/.359/.420 .779 OPS
RISP: .317/.385/.424 .810 OPS

2007
Bases Empty: .325/.388/.483 .871 OPS
RISP: .354/.426/.456 .882 OPS

2006
Bases Empty: .327/.384/.454 .838 OPS
RISP: .381/.482/.581 1.063 OPS

2005
Bases Empty: .306/.378/.473 .851 OPS
RISP: .261/.386/.355 .741 OPS

Career
Bases Empty: .315/.380/.470 .849 OPS
RISP: .305/.400/.429 .829 OPS

So, there are some years where Jeter is better with RISP, some years where he is worse, and some years where he is about the same, and I’ll tell you why: He isn’t clutch, because no one is, because it’s a myth. If you look at his career numbers, he’s just about the same player in either circumstance.

If you take a small sample of data (“clutch” situations) and then try and extrapolate them into the mental fortitude of a player, that’s just really bad science. I know it’s a lot more fun to say Jeter is “feeling the pressure” than to ever consider the possibility that baseball is a game that has a lot of variance and that guys have bad years all the time.

He is having a bad year, and maybe there’s a hole in his swing or maybe he’s aging or maybe he’s hiding an injury, I’m not really sure. But I have seen absolutely nothing that would point to his problems stemming from anything going on in his head.

Questions or thoughts? Email me at duggan2423(at)gmail(dot)com

by Lord Duggan on Sep 6, 2010 6:10 PM EDT reply actions

well said

but I’m still blaming Minka.

by Scooby Snacks on Sep 8, 2010 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions

Lets look at some more advanced stats

On baseball reference if you look at the Clutch Stats you will see in categories such as Late & Close, Tie Game etc Derek is extremely clutch. If you look at the Leverage category which catalogs game circumstance situations and metrics success in them, Jeter does extremely well. In High Lvrge his slashes are .318/.399/.433 .832 SLG. High Leverage is considered:

The highest leverage (boLI = 2.667) situation comes with two outs and the bases loaded. This is a do or die situation with possible run values ranging from 0 (an out) to 4.104 (grand slam + expected runs from future batters in the inning).

by HappyLuckyGoldenDragonNumber1! on Sep 9, 2010 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions

So in high leverage situations, DJ is .318/.399/.433 with an OPS of .832, and for his entire career he is .314/.384/.453 with an OPS of .837.

The numbers are almost identical, which just goes to show that isn’t clutch at all, he’s just good. Clutch would imply that in high leverage situations, he would be better than normal. He’s the same as normal.

There is nothing about the high leverage situation that brings out a better Derek Jeter, it’s a completely career-average Derek Jeter, because no one just magically improves because it’s the 9th inning. Good players are good and bad players are bad. What you’ve done is supply proof that Derek Jeter is a good player regardless of situation, not a better player when “the chips are down” which is the myth I’m trying to debunk.

Questions or thoughts? Email me at duggan2423(at)gmail(dot)com

by Lord Duggan on Sep 9, 2010 6:54 PM EDT up reply actions

cmon no way

Like Jeter has to worry about where he has to play next year or where he is going to get set for life money. Its just an off year it happens. He is not going to hit his career average numbers this year, he is allowed to have an off year imo anyway.

"Sorry bro, he Jason Bourned me"- Drama

by BL3ACH on Sep 6, 2010 6:20 PM EDT reply actions

Simply put...

Not a chance.

"Winning is the most important thing in my life, after breathing. Breathing first, winning next." -George Michael Steinbrenner III

by Chris McKeown on Sep 7, 2010 12:05 AM EDT reply actions

The only way Jeter's contract would be hurting his production would be if it was stapled to his bat.

A number of scouts have said that he appears to be losing bat speed and compensating by committing early to swings. I don’t know about that, but he is hacking away early in the count, and that can’t be good either.

by designatedquitter on Sep 7, 2010 10:17 AM EDT reply actions

You are way off base!!!

by jimwarren on Sep 7, 2010 10:57 AM EDT reply actions

As Lieutenant Columbo used to say "Eh, just one more thing...:"

A lot of the clutch performance that we associate with Jeter is for defensive plays-
- his very first game in ’96 making the game-saving over the shoulder running catch
- the flip play to get Jeremy Giambi in the 2001 playoffs
- the dive into the 3rd base boxes at Fenway to do I forget what but it showed the Red Sox fans who had the gamer shortstop.

Much of his clutch hitting reputation comes from his post season exploits.

I’m not saying he’s a clutch hitter or that he isn’t (Duggan’s probably right), but he is a clutch PLAYER, in that he rises to the occasion with his glove, his smarts, and his refusal to panic.

by designatedquitter on Sep 7, 2010 1:16 PM EDT reply actions

I don’t believe in clutch, but I do believe in choke. You get in the batter’s box squeezing the bat to sawdust, or you swing from your heels, or you freeze when the ball comes your way at the do-or-die moment.
I won’t say Jeter is clutch, but there’s no doubt he’s not a choker. His approach has been remarkably consistent regardless of the situation- which makes this season’s change in approach all the more worrying.

"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

by jscape2000 on Sep 7, 2010 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions

Jeter's season reminds me of Wade Boggs's 1992 year

Boggs was also going into the final year of his contract in ’92. A career .345 hitter to that point, Boggs had only hit below .325 once, and that year he hit .302. Suddenly, seemingly out of nowhere, he slumped to just .259 in ’92, and people seemed to think that at 34 years old he suddenly forgot how to hit. Boggs then signed with the Yankees in the offseason and hit over .300 in each of the next 4 seasons, proving that ’92 was nothing more than a fluke, possibly caused by the anxiety of becoming a free agent that offseason.

by bluecheese999 on Sep 8, 2010 5:04 PM EDT reply actions

This makes sense to me.

Face it, folks, not all stresses are equal, and people respond to them differently. I’ve seen plenty of people who handle a life-threatening emergency admirably but fall to pieces over financial stress… or vice versa… not to mention folks who something minor like the noise of a squeaky fan drive them to pieces, but can handle driving 75 MPH in heavy traffic. At night. In freezing rain.

The OP cites some interesting evidence that Jeter MIGHT find the stress of an expiring contract and impending free agency somewhat more challenging than anything on the baseball field. Maybe money matters stress him out. In a strange way, having a pile of money lets one ignore that sort of thing, in the sense that there’s no worry about running out of cash or wondering where that next mortgage payment comes from. But an aging player with no contract for next season, for the first time in his career? Yes, I could see where that could bother him, and yes, I do think it could impact his performance.

I also think injury is a very real possibility and he’s got a history of concealing that sort of injuries. Funny how folks are quick to throw him under the bus because he’s 36 years old… seems to me age is only the #3 most likely cause for his slump, with injury being #1 and contract anxiety being #2.

by pinstriper on Sep 9, 2010 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions

Jeter Hitting

He looks tired up there and is not being very selective- He sort of flails away at third strikes rather than chipping them off like he used to. At times it seems he gives up on the at bat. I think he has an injury- maybe ribs and the inside , high fastball hurts to get around on. This is my favorite player but he needs some more time off and some coaching right now.

by ghostwalker on Sep 9, 2010 3:09 PM EDT reply actions

Wait. IT ALL MAKES SENSE!

Hank Steinbrenner poisoned Jeter in the offseason so he wouldn’t have to pay him as much! Oh the humanity!

"Son, Nobody is half as good as Mickey Mantle"

by ntrokel on Sep 9, 2010 7:43 PM EDT reply actions

On the subject of "clutch"

Regardless of whether or not you believe that it exists, I would define clutch not as being better in pressure situations, but the same hitter in pressure situations. Most people’s definition of clutch seems to imply that a clutch player is underachieving most of the time. The way I see it, it is the ability for a player to treat a pressure situation as if it were any other situation. Basically, being clutch means not being a choke artist.

by Mongo314 on Sep 21, 2010 2:00 AM EDT reply actions